aar leipzig v1 - decision games · lose a reduced infantry line brigade, while the french push the...

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| AFTER ACTION REPORT | A1 AAR of Leipzig: Napoleon Encircled This is one of the longer folio games, lasting 32 turns. Napoleon is sur- rounded at Leipzig and is facing four separated armies. For a decisive victory the French player must knock out the Allies’ headquarters. That’s not going to be easy, as the Army of Silesia is attacking from the north and the Army of Bohemia strikes from the south. Additionally, the North Army and the Army of Poland arrive later in the battle. by E.R. Bickford Production: Lise Patterson © 2012 Decision Games Bakersfield, CA. Leipzig The Allies must either take out Napoleon or go after the French HQ. The French HQ can either be forced off the map or have its line of retreat cut. The lines of retreat run out of Leipzig to two of the road-entry areas to the east or the west. Turn 1 6:00 AM, 16 October 1813 French This is a twilight turn; so the artil- lery has a limited line of sight. That doesn’t affect much, as there’s as yet no contact with the enemy. French II Corps advances to contact with Russian II Corps near Gildengossa. Marshal Victor attacks, and the Russians are forced to retreat. Prussian II Corps is likewise pushed back after an initial engagement with French V Corps near Stormthal. Overall, things are uneventful. Allies The Allies are disjointed at the start. Some of them move forward and a small counterattack is mounted. Russian II Corps and Prussian II Corps push back and manage to send some of Napoleons troops into retreat. Not much is gained. Turn 2 7:30 AM French Hearing a report the Austrians are marching toward Leipzig, Napoleon dispatches I Cavalry Corps to screen those units. The VIII Corps attacks Prussian II Corps near Crobern. Those troops fall back. Then French II Corps attacks Russian II Corps, forcing it back again. This time some of the Russian units become surrounded. Another fight opens near Stormthal. French V Corps, under Gen. Lauriston, attacks the Russian Cossacks and eliminates that cavalry in an exchange. The 2/10 is reduced after incurring casualties. Prussian 10 th Infantry is also driven back.

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Page 1: AAR Leipzig v1 - Decision Games · lose a reduced infantry line brigade, while the French push the rest of ... Napoleon’s line of communication. Russian VIII Corps is engaged, and

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AAR of Leipzig: Napoleon Encircled

This is one of the longer folio games, lasting 32 turns. Napoleon is sur-rounded at Leipzig and is facing four separated armies. For a decisive victory the French player must knock out the Allies’ headquarters. That’s not going to be easy, as the Army of Silesia is attacking from the north and the Army of Bohemia strikes from the south. Additionally, the North Army and the Army of Poland arrive later in the battle.

by E.R. Bickford

Production:Lise’ Patterson

© 2012 Decision Games

Bakersfi eld, CA.

LeipzigThe Allies must either take out Napoleon or go after the French HQ. The French HQ can either be forced off the map or have its line of retreat cut. The lines of retreat run out of Leipzig to two of the road-entry areas to the east or the west.

Turn 1

6:00 AM, 16 October 1813

FrenchThis is a twilight turn; so the artil-lery has a limited line of sight. That doesn’t affect much, as there’s as yet no contact with the enemy. French II Corps advances to contact with Russian II Corps near Gildengossa. Marshal Victor attacks, and the Russians are forced to retreat. Prussian II Corps is likewise pushed back after an initial engagement with French V Corps near Stormthal. Overall, things are uneventful.

AlliesThe Allies are disjointed at the start. Some of them move forward and a small counterattack is mounted. Russian II Corps and Prussian II Corps push back and manage to send some of Napoleons troops into retreat. Not much is gained.

Turn 2

7:30 AM

FrenchHearing a report the Austrians are marching toward Leipzig, Napoleon dispatches I Cavalry Corps to screen those units. The VIII Corps attacks Prussian II Corps near Crobern. Those troops fall back. Then French II Corps attacks Russian II Corps, forcing it back again. This time some of the Russian units become surrounded.

Another fi ght opens near Stormthal. French V Corps, under Gen. Lauriston, attacks the Russian Cossacks and eliminates that cavalry in an exchange. The 2/10 is reduced after incurring casualties. Prussian 10th

Infantry is also driven back.

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LeipzigAlliesMarshal Blucher and the Silesian headquarters arrive from the north along the road near Breitenfeld and Lindenthal. With him is Russian VIII Corps, which advances along the road, though it’s still out of contact with the French. Russian IX Corps follows behind.

Army of BohemiaAustrian II Corps enters from the east. That formation is part of the Bohemian Army under Gen. Schwarzenberg. A large part of that army is already in contact with the French to the south. Meanwhile, Prussian II Corps attempts to engage French IX Corps near Seiffertshayne. Since the cavalry doesn’t have the best morale, they’re used in conjunction with Prussian 11th Brigade. That results in the French 2/52 Brigade falling back.

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In an attack north of Stormthal, Prussian 2nd Brigade is repulsed. The French 2/19 Brigade is victorious. Russian II Corps is in a fi x near Gildengossa. An attack is launched against the French 2/4 Brigade. The French unit maintains its position despite suffering disruption. It hopes to pin the Russian forces. Near Crostowitz, Prussian II Corps has some success, and it forces French 26 Brigade to retreat. The French obtain an FOW and use it to recover morale.

Turn 3

9:00 AM

FrenchFrench IX Corps resumes its attack against the Prussian II Corps near Seiffertshayne. The 1/51 attacks the Prussian cavalry, forcing it to retreat. That cuts off Prussian 11th Brigade. The French 1/52 follows up with an attack against the Prussian 11th, which consequently routs. It has no safe line of retreat; so it’s placed on the Turn Record Track. The 2/52 forces the other Prussian cavalry to retreat as well.

Several battles erupt near Gildengossa. French II and V Corps are involved. Several units in Russian II Corps become surrounded and rout without an SLR. They go onto the TRT.

French I Cavalry Corps rides across the Pleisse River toward Gautzch. The cav-alry charges units from the Austrian II Corps. They’re infantry units and they attempt to form square, but both fail despite their high morale. The charges don’t go so well either, and both the French units become disrupted.

Next, French VI Corps launches an attack against the Silesian Army. That army is led by Marshal Blucher, and is entering from the north. Russian VIII Corps suffers the fi rst blow from the French. The French have overwhelmed the lead elements of the Silesian Army, and the 17/8 takes a step loss.

AlliesThe Allies have several forma-tions arriving as reinforcements. They’re primarily with the Silesian Army, entering from the north. A signifi cant force is also arriving

with the Bohemian Army from the west. They’re Austrian units that will attempt to exploit the French cavalry.

Army of BohemiaThe two cavalry units of Prussian II Corps retreat south and take positions along the hills, as they’re out classed by French IX Corps. Schwarzenberg orders Russian II Corps to counterattack, and that drives back the French a little. The French, however, earn an FOW.

From the west the Austrian Reserve Corps marches onto the battlefi eld. Those troops maneuver behind Austrian II Corps. That corps attempts to attack the French cavalry. Most of the French cavalry disengages, but one unit is caught and surrenders. Austrian III Corps enters from the west, near Schonau. Those units advance toward Leipzig, but they remain out of contact with the French.

Army of SilesiaPrussian I Corps arrives through Stalmeln. It remains out of contact with French forces. Russian IX Corps launches an attack against the French 2/22 Brigade, and both sides absorb casualties in an exchange.

Then the Russian VIII Corps attack is repulsed by the French 1/22 Brigade. That leaves the 11/8 disrupted.

Turn 4

10:30 AM

FrenchThis turn the French player receives reinforcements. Both the 1/9 and 2/9 arrive at area M. French XI Corps enters via area K. The I Cavalry Corps disengages from contact with Austrian II Corps and falls back across the river.

French VI CorpsTo the north, VI Corps attacks the disrupted 11/8 Brigade. The Russian unit is defending across a stream, and the battle results in an exchange. Both sides fl ip their unit.

Part of Napoleon’s Young Guard moves into Leipzig, heading west, where the Austrians are marching into his fl ank. Meanwhile the cavalry cover the river crossings.

French II CorpsIn the south, II Corps attacks Russian II and III Corps as they

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march toward Leipzig. Both sides absorb losses, but the Russian infantry is forced to give ground. French 8th Light Cavalry becomes disrupted due to an Allied FOW.

French V CorpsAnother attack is launched by V Corps. Two of those French units retreat after being repulsed. A third suffers a no effect result after taking a morale check. The Allies use an FOW to force the 2/19 to make a morale check. It fails, and consequently becomes disrupted.

AlliesSacken’s Russian Corps arrives from the north. That area is jammed with uncoordinated Allied troops. We’ll see if Blucher can get everything straightened out. Russian 15/9 Brigade recovers a step.

Army of BohemiaAustrian II Corps marches toward the French cavalry holding the bridge across the Pleisse River.

Austrian V Corps marches across the ford to the south, attempting to cut the French fl ank. The cavalry manages to capture Markkleeberg.

The Russians and Prussians join in an attack against French V Corps, which is holding the southernmost position from Leipzig. That attack has mixed results, but the French 2/19 retreats. The Russian artillery becomes low on ammunition.

Next, Austrian IV Corps attacks the eastern fl ank of French V Corps. The Austrians manage to chase away the French light cavalry and partially sur-round the French infantry. The infan-try is also forced back, but it passes its morale check for an unsafe line of retreat. Then the Austrians and French exchange losses in another fi refi ght.

The Russian Grenadier Corps marches through the swamps to buttress the Allied eastern fl ank. On the western fl ank, Prussian II Corps pushes back the French but leaves the French

player with some FOW. As a result, the Freikorps becomes disrupted.

Austrian III Corps attacks the French forces near Lindenau. Those French units rout and cross the river toward Leipzig. The Allies advance.

Army of SilesiaPrussian I Corps marches through Stalmeln. Those forces are over-crowded and therefore have slowed movement. Despite that, they manage to move into contact with French VI Corps. An attack is aimed at the 1/20 Brigade along the main road. The French brigade absorbs heavy losses but maintains its position.

Russian VIII Corps also attacks. That formation isn’t strong, but it’s large. The French 1/22 retreats after failing its morale check. The Russians march on. Russian X Corps is also in contact with French VI Corps. The Russian commander decides to wait for his artillery to get

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within range. That gives the French an FOW, but nothing comes of it.

Turn 5

12:00 Noon

FrenchFrench II Cavalry arrives as reinforce-ments from the east. That’s the last of the French reinforcements. Several units are pulled off the line in order to recover from disruption. Several other units make recoveries.

French II CorpsThe French commander launches an attack against the Prussian 12th Line Brigade near Crobern. The French unit passes its morale check. Both sides absorb losses in an exchange. In a battle nearby, Russian 5/1 is forced to retreat after engaging the French 1/5 Brigade.

French VIII CorpsThe French commander attacks Prussian II Corps on the western fl ank. The Prussians break up and retreat. That allows the French to strengthen their position in the south on their right.

French V CorpsThis formation is engaged with Austrian IV Corps. The Austrians lose a reduced infantry line brigade, while the French push the rest of the corps backward. The Austrians gain an FOW, and manage to leave the French 2/10 disrupted.

French VI CorpsThe VI Corps is defending the northern approach to Leipzig, Napoleon’s line of communication. Russian VIII Corps is engaged, and is consequently pushed back in retreat.

French III CorpsThe French attack Russian X Corps near Breitenfeld. Those Russians can’t sustain the fi re and decide to retreat after failing a morale check. The French player doesn’t advance in order to better maintain his defensive cover. The Russians gain an FOW due to a triggered unit. There’s no effect.

Allies The Prussian Guard arrives near the Bohemian Army headquarters. The Russian Guard Corps also enters in that area. That will strengthen the Allied left.

Army of BohemiaThe Russian Guard Corps enters through Rotha. There’s no contact with the enemy. Prussian II Corps attacks the French on the southern (left) fl ank, and forces 7th Light Cavalry to retreat. Then Russian I Corps

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force the Prussian 12th Line to fall back. There are small losses there.

The Austrians have managed to ford across the river near Markkleeberg. French IV Cavalry Corps fl ushes the Austrian cavalry from the town. Then the French 1/4 knocks out the other Austrian cavalry near the same town.

Northern PositionFrench VI Corps resists Blucher’s advance. Russian VIII Corps is hit hard but retreats in good order. The IV Corps forces the Russians to retreat in the north, but the 2/8 is disrupted by a FOW of the Allied player.

AlliesThere are no reinforcements at this time. Both the Bohemian and Silesian armies continue to converge on Leipzig.

strikes French II Corps and forces those units to fall back. Things don’t go as well in the center, where all the Allied attacks are repulsed. There are minimal losses, but those Russian and Prussian formations are retreated.

Farther along the Bohemian Army line, Austrian IV Corps attacks French V Corps. That effort is successful. The French line is pushed back and the 2/10 routs. Next, Austrian II Corps attacks the French along the Luppe River. The French defend the bridge, and the combat result is no effect.

Army of SilesiaBlucher is still trying to gain access to the area. Prussian I Corps is entering along the Elster River. Those units have a complement of artillery, and they manage to engage French VI Corps. The Prussians force the French back, but then they face a setback.

The fl ank retreats and leaves a cavalry unit and an infantry unit exposed.

Russian VIII Corps also engages French VI Corps, and forces that formation back toward Leipzig. Blucher is starting to get control over his unwieldy army. Sacken’s Corps and the Russian X Corps move on Napoleon’s III Corps in the northern. That French formation retreats with limited casualties.

Turn 6

1:30 PM

Southern PositionHere the French begin to fall back on their line of communication. The IX Corps, which holds the French left, falls back. In the center V Corps. and II Corps on the right, both fall back. In a small engagement the French

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Army of BohemiaSchwarzenberg orders his forces to push the French toward Leipzig. Several attacks open as a result. Both Russian I Corps and Prussian II Corps press into the French line and force the French right to fall back. Then Austrian IV Corps maneuvers near Lieberwolkwitz, and French V Corps retreats. Russian I Grenadier Corps is holding the southeastern fl ank.

Army of SilesiaBlucher redoubles his effort during the afternoon. Prussian I Corps is successful against French VI Corps, which is anchored on the Elster River. Sacken’s Corps and Russian X Corps also attack. They get mixed results, but the French lines are becoming a jagged. Blucher is able to add some replace-ments to one of the Russian brigades.

Turn 7

3:00 PM

FrenchOn both fronts Napoleon’s forces are falling back toward Leipzig, but are also maintaining an effective defense while doing so. On the southern front, French V Corps forces a minor engagement with Austrian IV Corps. An enemy infantry brigade is forced to retreat. The French otherwise strengthen their position by maneuver rather than by fi ghting. The French cavalry at Markkleeberg becomes disrupted due to an enemy FOW.

In the north, French VI Corps conducts a counterattack against Prussian I and Russian VI Corps. That’s somewhat successful, and the enemy retreats. One Russian unit becomes disrupted to avoid an unsafe retreat.

On the French right, III Corps attacks Sacken’s Russian Corps, and those units give ground; though not much is lost in the way of casualties.

AlliesPrussian 10th Brigade accepts replace-ments. Schwarzenberg orders the Army of Bohemia to march during the late afternoon. That leads to engagements across the southern line. Austrian IV Corps launches attacks against French V Corps. Those attacks are extremely bloody, and both sides take heavy casualties in exchanges. Further attacks against French II Corps yield mixed results. The French are left with two FOW, which consequently leave the Bohemian Army with two disrupted brigades.

Silesian ArmyBlucher’s forces spring into action again. Prussian I Corps has its way with French VI Corps, which is sent

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reeling in retreat. Making matters worse for the French, the 2/22 routs. It will likely regroup during the night. Farther along the northern line, Sacken’s Russian Corps manages to throw back French III Corps. There aren’t many casualties on either side, but the French are clearly in retreat.

Turn 8

4:30 PM

FrenchThe French in the north get two replacements. That allows two units to return to full-strength. French III Corps engages Sacken’s Russian Corps in the northeast sector of the battlefi eld. That has mixed results, but the 1/9 Brigade is reduced a step along with a Russian unit. The French also attack Russian VIII Corps, which is pushed

back. Then French VI Corps drives back Prussian I Corps along the Elster River.

The French artillery bombards the Austrians across the bridge near Kennewitz. Since it’s twilight, the artil-lery must be adjacent for that, which it is. The Austrian brigade retreats, giving up the western side of the bridge.

On the south end of the battlefi eld, French II Corps springs into action. The Army of Bohemia is in a long defensive line stretched across the map. The III Corps manages to push back Russian I Corps, and destroys a squadron of Russian II Corps. The Russian 5/1 Brigade routs.

French V Corps attacks in the center. The 2/19 Brigade faces off with Prussian 10th Brigade. An exchange results, and both units are elimi-

nated. The rest of the combat along the southern line is uneventful.

AlliesThe Silesian Army adds replacements to one of the units in Prussian I Corps. Likewise, the Bohemian Army brings a Prussian unit back into play at half-strength.

Army of SilesiaBlucher presses his attack. His Prussian I Corps ploughs into the French defenses along the Elster River. The Prussians have limited success, and they push back some of French VI Corps. On the Allied left, the Russians fail to infl ict much damage. The French maintain discipline, and some of the Russian attackers retreat.

Army of BohemiaSchwarzenberg orders his army to resume the attack. Russian I and II

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Corps push French II Corps toward Leipzig. Then Austrian IV Corps forces the French in the center to give more ground. Prussian II Corps and the Russian Grenadiers are repulsed on the French left. Then nightfall arrives.

Turn 9

6:00 PM

Both sides reshape their positions. Units can’t attack except by charging, and neither player wants to attempt that. Therefore all energy is spent to clear up disruptions and other morale issues among the troops in the fi eld. Both commanders await the arrival of the new day and a new battle.

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7:30 AM

FrenchNapoleon’s troops launch a counterat-tack in the north. Prussian I Corps absorbs signifi cant damage along with Russian VIII Corps. Blucher is reeling. The southern battlefi eld is much different. One Austrian brigade is destroyed after receiving heavy artillery bombardment.

AlliesBlucher’s forces in the north attack French III, IV and VI Corps. Those units acquit themselves well. There are casualties on both sides. The French player uses an FOW to disrupt one of the Prussian I Corps brigades.

17 October

6:00 AM

I’m going to curtail the reporting for the remainder of the article for the sake of time and space. Day two begins at 6:00 AM with the French turn. French VII Corps arrives from the northeast corner of the map. The French player makes a series of attacks on the northern battlefi eld against the Army of Silesia. There are mixed results. In the south there are limited attacks as the French attempt to delay the Army of Bohemia.

Army of SilesiaBlucher’s Prussian I Corps gets beat up during the opening attacks along the Elster River. Both Russian X Corps and Sacken’s Russian Corps attack the French along the northern line. That effort is largely repulsed by the French.

Army of BohemiaSchwarzenberg resumes his attacks in the south. The French line is starting to buckle. Though the Allies have taken some losses, the French are being pushed back on their LOC. Both French V and IX Corps are shaken.

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Schwarzenberg’s Bohemian Army attacks from the south. That has mixed results, but the French are ultimately pushed back. Napoleon’s troops might be too far south. The Austrians are attacking from the west. They have water obstacles, but artillery – the great equalizer – is used to bombard the French. There are some casualties as a result.

9:00 AM

Marshal Ney orders III Corps to attack Sacken’s Russian Corps. Those troops are slowly pushed back to the north. French VI Corps attacks Prussian I Corps. Gen. York’s troops retreat. Overall, the French position in the north is holding.

The southern approach to Leipzig is being held by three French corps. Marshal Victor and II Corps hold the right. The center is buttressed by French V Corps, Marshal Augereau and IX Corps. Cavalry holds the fl anks. There aren’t many engagements, as the French are in retreat here. The reserve artillery infl icts some casualties on the Austrians approach-ing from the creek to the west.

The Bohemian Army isn’t idle. Schwarzenberg presses his attack. On the Allied left, the Russian Guard engages some of the French cavalry on the creek. Kellerman’s cavalry retreats. That helps maintain the integrity of the French line.

In the center, what’s left of French V Corps is crushed. Gen. Klenau’s Austrian IV Corps penetrates the French line as V Corps units are elimi-nated. The French left remains intact.

In the north the Prussians press their attack along the Elster River. That’s largely unsuccessful. The French use an FOW to charge and further disrupt Prussian I Corps. The Russians don’t perform well on the Allied left. There are a few exchanges, but Blucher isn’t happy with the results.

10:30 AM - 1:30 PM

French IV and VI Corps continue to engage the Prussians and Sacken’s Russian Corps in the north. The

Prussian cavalry routs. The French use skirmish tactics and manage to push back the Russians with little loss to themselves. The Prussians strike back, however, causing French VI Corps to absorb heavy losses and retreat along the Elster. Sacken and French III Corps maintain a stalemate.

In the south, Napoleon’s IX Corps tangles with the Russian Grenadier Corps. Both sides incur casualties in the back and forth fi ghting. French II Corps pushes back Austrian IV Corps in the center, but those units counterat-

tack and reclaim the lost ground. The Russian Grenadiers infl ict heavy losses on French IX Corps. Meanwhile Napoleon and the Guard move south.

3:00 PM

The French continue to delay. Their pri-mary tactic is the skirmish, which lim-its casualties and keeps enemy forces at bay. The northern position fi res on the Prussians and Sacken’s Russian Corps, and those units are pushed back. In the south the French have less success,

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but they still manage to disable some brigades of the Army of Bohemia.

Meanwhile, the Army of the North is arriving. Since the French have control of the northeastern approach, those units will arrive from the north. That creates a traffi c jam, as Blucher attempts to move his forces farther west toward the Elster. The Russian units march toward Prussian I Corps.

Gen. Bernadotte sets up his headquar-ters along the road from the northeast

corner. The Army of the North consists of the Swedish Corps, Prussian III Corps and Winzingerode’s Russian Corps. Blucher orders Prussian I Corps to attack along the Elster. Again, he gets only mixed results. There’s one exchange, but it doesn’t hurt the French too much due to their replacement rate.

In the south, Schwarzenberg attacks the French along the entire line. Austrian V Corps strikes the French right along the river. The French are only partially dislodged, something

easily recoverable. Austrian IV Corps has more success, taking out one of the French infantry brigades. Additionally, two cavalry units are eliminated.

4:30 PM

Marshal Victor and Gen. Lauriston both lead their corps to attack the Army of Bohemia in the south. That allows the French defensive position to remain intact while the Allies are unhinged a bit. There’s no major loss from that action.

In the northern section, Marmont’s VI Corps forces the Prussians to retreat again. French VI Corps is anchored on the Elster. The Army of Silesia and the newly arrived Army of the North are still entangled.

Schwarzenberg continues his attack against the French from the South. The Russian Grenadier Corps successfully pushes back the French left. The IX Corps retreats toward Leipzig.

In the north, Blucher orders Prussian I Corps to attack the French along the Elster. Those Prussians have limited success, shoving back one enemy unit. The North Army’s fi rst attack goes poorly. It’s uncoordinated, and there’s no artillery support due to twilight.

6:00 PM Night

During the evening hours the French fall back and recover. Napoleon still has a strong position. The Allies also recover their forces. Gaining their bearings, the Allied generals press their troops into contact with the French and ready for the next day’s battle. Neither player is ready to concede.

October 18 6:00 AM through Evening

The fi ghting resumes. The French take the initiative and launch an attack. Both positions, north and south, are pressed back. Due to the lack of line of sight, the Allies are initially unable to employ their artillery, which is needed, especially against the strongest French units.

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At 9:00 heavy fi ghting in the south results in heavy casualties on both sides. Napoleon’s artillery plays a big role in generating the enemy casualties.

At 3:00 Schwarzenberg resumes his attack on the French from the south. The Prussians manage to capture Probsthayda. The Russian cavalry on the right only hold their position; they aren’t strong enough to push the French. Meanwhile the Army of Poland’s forces get in position to take over the right fl ank. Napoleon decides to fall back on his line of supply.

October 19, 6:00 AM through 1:30 PM

The French player is engaged in a number of attacks on the northern front. They don’t go well, and Napoleon’s troops take heavy losses. Blucher’s army makes progress push-

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ing back the French. Napoleon’s line of retreat is already cut to the west, as he didn’t send enough strength there to hold off the Austrians. His only hope is to cover his supply from the east. That’s now threatened as Bernadotte’s army begins to advance.

Schwarzenberg’s army presses into the southwest fl ank of the French. Those units continue to fall back toward Leipzig. In the southeast the Poles make little headway.

Later on, the Prussian artillery makes some headway as it bombards the French in the north. That position is weakening, and Napoleon has likely waited too long. The French begin to funnel toward their escape route to the northeast. Later on the Allies make some desperate attacks to dislodge the French, but they fail.

SummaryNeither side is able to claim a decisive victory. All the Allied headquarters are on the map. The French never scored a decisive blow against any of the enemy armies. Napoleon and his headquarters are safely positioned on the eastern line of supply. The French have 21 destroyed units, while the Allies have 30 eliminated. That’s just shy of a French victory, which would require a differential of 10 VP.