aam cost modeling strategy - pricesystems.com · • developed as part of the vlc rotorcraft cost...

© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and Ecosystem Cost Modeling Strategy

PRICE® Research

Webinar

© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved

Cost Analytics


Today’s Presenter

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Dr. Nate SirirojvisuthSenior Cost Research Analyst

• 15-year experience in rotorcraft multidisciplinary design and optimization

• Leads the Rotorcraft team and PRICE® Research with a focus on economics, model building, data analytics, technology valuation, technology readiness assessment, and lifecycle affordability engineering

• Presenter for eVTOL/UAM/AAM conventions and events

• PhD degree in Aerospace Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology.


Overview

• AAM/UAM market and opportunity

• The need for cost analytics

• TruePlanning® Live Demo

• Summary

• Q&A

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Disruptive Technologies in Vertical Flight

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Growth in Urban Sprawl

US 2019:$88 billion direct lost

$74 billion indirect lost

Boston 2019:20 workdays in traffic


Fulfilling Market Opportunities in UAM/AAM

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Artist's impression of the urban airspace. Image

courtesy NASA/Advanced Concepts Laboratory


Multidisciplinary Formulation

❑ Ridership Demand

❑ Travel pattern

❑ Congestion

❑ Service catchment

❑ Aviation

infrastructure

❑ Demographics

❑ Mass transit

locations

❑ Airspace routing

❑ Weather

❑ MRO

❑ Etc.

o On-demand air taxi

o Chartered flight

o Airport shuttle

o Cargo service

o Tourism and

entertainment

o Fire/police/search

rescue

o Etc.

Choice Model: Concept of Operations:

Geomatics/GIS: Scenarios:


AAM community lacks

cost analytic rigor and economic

analysis framework for engineers.


Cost Analytics


Rotorcraft Catalog

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Development Background

• RC 1.0 (2015)

• Developed as part of the VLC Rotorcraft Cost Modeling Collaboration Project and is accessible only to VLC members.

• Addresses total ownership cost elements.

• Integrates with Model Based Engineering (MBE) tools such as Phoenix Integration ModelCenter.

• Capable of estimating new rotorcraft concepts and advanced technologies.

• Enables the type of analysis needed to aid decision-makers.

• RC 2.0 (2017)

❖ Included additional data collection (public domain) and analysis to improve accuracy through performance-based adjustment factor.

❖ A new PRICE Systems’ catalog and be available for customers outside VLC


Rotorcraft 3.0

• Same estimating algorithm and cost drivers

• Flexible Structure‒ Partial product

structure

‒ Multi-level indentation

‒ Mix-and-match cost objects

‒ Convert to hardware/hardware lifecycle/common elements model

• Exposed CERs ‒ Allow data-driven

adjustment of cost drivers


Rotorcraft Cost Drivers

• Group Weights/Component Weights

• Type (Helicopter, Tiltrotor, Coaxial Compound, Tilt-wing)

• Military vs. Commercial Application

• Percent New Design

• Advanced Technology Considerations

• Subsystem-specific Options‒ Materials

‒ Number of Main/Tail Rotor Blades

‒ Number of Engines

‒ HUMS Type

‒ FADEC Installation? Yes/No

‒ Etc.

• O&S Ground Rules and Assumptions


Multi-fidelity structure

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• Flexible Product Breakdown Structure

• Mix-and-match cost object

• Support multi-fidelity estimation


Data-driven Calibration

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Industrial Facility Model for Vertiport

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Model Scope

• Provide method to estimate construction and sustainment:‒ Construction cost based on DoD Facility Pricing Guide

• Categorized $/size unit calculations

‒ Adhere to FAA and government regulations

• Estimate the costs associated with different “vertiplaces”

• Create defendable ROM estimate for facilities:‒ Address major structures

• Helipad

• Control Towers

• Recharge Stations

• Power

• Parking

• Passenger Terminal

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Image courtesy: Infrastructure barriers to the

elevated future of mobility, Deloitte, May 2019

© 2020 PRICE Systems, L.L.C. All Rights Reserved 18

Cost Elements and Sizing

• Location factor

• Layout‒ Terminal building area requirements

‒ FAA guidance for FATO and TLOF area

‒ Passenger gate area requirement

‒ Taxiway

• Lighting and signage

• Electrical power requirements‒ Transformers

‒ Power unit

‒ Switchboard

‒ Power line


TruePlanning® DEMO

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Power BI Integration

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Concluding Remarks

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• Aviation industry is undergoing a transformation

• Market opportunities can only be fulfilled at the right price

• AAM community lacks rigorous cost analytic capability

• PRICE Cost Analytics™ suite can close the gap in the analysis‒ Subject matter expertise in cost analytics

‒ Data-driven estimate

‒ Specialized model development

‒ Model-based Integration


Contact PRICE®

www.pricesystems.com

[email protected]

aam cost modeling strategy - pricesystems.com · • developed as part of the vlc rotorcraft cost...

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