a vision for a 1.5°c compatible wine industry by 2035 · indir ct energy scope1 scope2 scope3 ......
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Lund University Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS)@KA_Nicholas
kimnicholas.com
A Vision for a 1.5°C CompatibleWine Industry by 2035
@KA_Nicholas
http://www.kimnicholas.com/climate-science-101.html
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Climate change threatens the future of wine
(and life on Earth)
@KA_Nicholas
15 years of wine & climate research:http://www.kimnicholas.com/wine-climate--sustainability.html
Wine quality depends on climate
Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American@KA_Nicholas
Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American
In optimal conditions, ripening is matched to climate and other conditions
Climate change disrupts wine quality
Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American@KA_Nicholas
Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American
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Climate adaptation strategy: Avoid changes we can’t manageManage changes we can’t avoid
@KA_Nicholas
Options for climate adaptation
Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change
Short-term Long-term@KA_Nicholas
Expanding/moving vineyard areas not sustainable
Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change
Short-term Long-term@KA_Nicholas
>80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
• Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide
@KA_Nicholas
*Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
>80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
• Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide
@KA_Nicholas
Consider diversifying varieties as one climate adaptation strategy
*Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
>80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
• Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide
@KA_Nicholas
* Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
Look to diverse areas for possible new varieties
Use wine diversity to increase resilience
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
@KA_Nicholas
Missing opportunities to adaptwinegrape variety to local climate
12 int’l varieties103 other varieties
We have a choice between two different worlds
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
We fix it! low emissions<2C°
Temperature (°C)
change by 2070
@KA_Nicholas
Protected geographical indications
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
We don’t fix itHigh emissions4°C
Temperature (°C)
change by 2070
Temperature (°C)
change by 2070
We have a choice between two different worlds
@KA_Nicholas
We fix it! low emissions<2C°
What kind of world do you want to live in?
Image: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007, Science
@KA_Nicholas
My summary of the latest science: 2°C warming is not safeMore warming = more risks to people, economy, natureThe faster we reduce carbon emissions to zero, the safer and richer we’ll be, and the more beauty and good wine will be left for us & all future generations!
(My plain-language summary of IPCC 1.5° report, in 59 tweets: kimnicholas.com/climate-policy.html)
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My vision for climate leadershipin the wine industry
1. Support science-based targets for the wineindustry compatible with <1.5°C global warming
2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions acrossthe supply chain
3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life
@KA_Nicholas
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My vision for climate leadershipin the wine industry
1. Support science-based targets for the wineindustry compatible with <1.5°C global warming
@KA_Nicholas
Emissions pathway to stay below 1.5°C warming: must plummet towards zero
@KA_Nicholas
Source: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/stylised-pathways-to-well-below-2c
• Rapid transition awayfrom coal, oil, & gas
• Reduced animal agriculture
• Increase carbonin soils and vegetation
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My vision for climate leadershipin the wine industry
2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions acrossthe supply chain
• Fossil-free by 2030
• ≥85% reduction in GHGs by 2035• Cut first 50% by 2025
• Cut next 50% by 2030
• Cut next 50% 2035
@KA_Nicholas
Aim for zero emissions across supply chain
@KA_Nicholas
FIVS International Wine Greenhouse Gas Protocol 27/27
Joint Ownership of Vineyard, Winery and Bottling
The following diagram describes the entity that owns only vineyard, winery and bottling operations.
Figure 7: Vineyard, Winery and Bottling Centre Process Boundaries
Scope 2 Indirect Emissions
Scope 1 Direct Emissions
Scope 3 Indirect Emissions
Purchased Electricity
Stationary Fuel Use
Water Heaters
Frost Fighting Equipment
Boilers
Electrical Power Generation
Heat Generation
Mobile Fuel Use
Tractors
4wd Motor Bikes
Trucks
Forklifts
Cars
Harvesters
Tillage and Vineyard Practices
Permanent Row Cropping†
Marc Incorporation†
N2O Emissions (Fertiliser and Soil)
Soil Carbon Incorporation†
Vine Photosynthesis Sequestration into Fruit
Sequestration into current Growth
Sequestration in Woody Material†
Degradation and Compositing of Vines
Winery Processing Related
Primary Fermentation
Direct CO2 Use
Fugitive Emissions
HFC Refrigeration
Methane from Stationary Combustion
Waste Disposal
Vineyard Waste
Winery Waste - Solid - Liquid
Packaging Waste
Extraction and Production of Purchased Materials
Fertilizers
Wine Additives
Juice, Spirit, Concentrate
Grapes and Bulk Wine
Oak or oak related products
Bentonite
Tartaric Acid
Packaging Material - Glass - PET - Tetra Pack - Closures - Fibre Packaging - Wooden Packaging
Transport Related Activities
Hired Helicopters Fuel Use
Business Travel
Truck Rail or Ship Transport of Grapes if Machinery not owned by the Vineyard or Winery
Transport of Wine to Bottling Location if moved in equipment not owned by the company
Transport of Wine to point of wholesale in market
Electrical Transmission and
Distribution Losses
Waste Disposal
Solid Waste Disposal, if done Off Site
Waste Water Disposal, if done Off Site
1. ALIGNMENT WITH RECOGNIZED PROTOCOLS
Beverage Container
Raw Materials
Production Packaging Warehousing
Distribution
Consumption
Disposal
Beverage Ingredient
Raw Materials
Indirect
Energy
Inputs
Indirect
Energy
Inputs
Scope1
Scope2
Scope3
Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable, 2010
Carbon footprint of wine
@KA_NicholasPE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
Priorities to reduce wine’s carbon footprint
@KA_Nicholas
Optimize inputs & nitrogen management
Energy efficiency & renewable energy
Lightweight & alternative packaging
Switch from truck & air to rail & ship transport; fossil free
PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
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My vision for climate leadershipin the wine industry
3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life
@KA_Nicholas
Six key areas for climate leadership
http://www.mission2020.global/
@KA_Nicholas 24
Check investment carbon footprint:
Top 10% income individuals = 45% global climate pollution
@KA_NicholasEmissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m; ca. 65 tons each,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change
Top 10%, current emissions: Chancel & Piketty, 2015
USA
Current average:
W EuropeGlobal
High-flyers need to rethink our lifestylesto avoid dangerous climate change
@KA_Nicholas
High-impact actions: Wynes & Nicholas, 2017, Environmental Research Letters1.5°C budget: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2019, 1.5° Lifestyles Report
1.5°C budget: 2.5 tCO2e/yearBy 2030
Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change
Car-freeElectric car
Renewableenergy
(Zero-carbonhomes)
Plant-baseddiet
Flyingmuchless
Wine industry leadership can be critical to a safe climate future
@KA_Nicholas
Photo: https://www.winecountry.com.au/• Adapt existing vineyards to changes we can’t avoid• Avoid changes we can’t manage by leading on emissions reductions:
• Commit to targets compatible with <1.5°C global warming• Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain (85%
reduction by 2035)• Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life
@KA_Nicholas
Gapminder/Dollar Street
We can cut emissions in half and maintain good quality of life
Top 10% income individuals* = 36% total global emissions
*$8405/pp/year; 6272 SEK/month
(Hubacek et al., 2017,Energy, Ecology & Environment)
@KA_Nicholas
@KA_Nicholas
Data from IPCC, 2013; Graph from US EPA
@KA_Nicholas
Data from IPCC, 2013; Graph from US EPA
https://www.slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CICERO/how-much-carbon-can-we-emit
“We have already emitted a lot of CO2, and thus we can only emit a little more to stay
under 1.5°C or 2°C”
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Unchecked climate change would rewrite the global wine map
Map from Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American. Data from Hannah et al., 2013, PNAS@KA_Nicholas
New Trellising Could Shade and Cool
Fruit, and Increase Quality Previously reported light interception (Dokoozlian & Kliewer, 1995)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Num
ber
of
observ
ations
0
1
02
0
3
0
4
0
Nicholas et al., 2011, Ag & Forest Met
% cluster intercepted light (PAR)
N=488 vines
1% increase in light, >2% decrease in
grape color and tannins (p<0.005)@KA_Nicholas
Mitigation and adaptation
@KA_Nicholas
Minx et al., 2018, Environmental Research Letters, ”egative emissions…"
Grapevine phenological stages
@KA_Nicholas Wolkovich, Burger, Walker & Nicholas, 2017, J Ecology