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A View of Saskatchewan in 2036 The Future of Agriculture – The Drivers of Change

A presentation for

Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation Inc. and

Saskatchewan Ethanol Development Council by Richard Worzel, Futurist

Saskatoon Prairieland Exhibition Centre, Terrace Room

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 12:30 to 1:30 p.m.

Thursday, March 30th, 2006

Luncheon Keynote Speaker is made possible in part by the RBC Royal Bank Agricultural Speaking Series

Acknowledgements

Funding for the keynote speaker was provided by the RBC Royal Bank Agricultural Speaking Series. This series supports Canadian learning

opportunities for agriculture and agribusiness

Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation Inc. 502 - 45th Street West

Saskatoon, SK S7L 6H2 Tel: 1-306-384-4491 Fax: 1-306-244-4497

Email: [email protected] Web: www.agrivision.ca

Saskatchewan Ethanol Development Council Inc. 502 - 45th Street West

Saskatoon, SK S7L 6H2 Tel: 1-306-384-0149 Fax: 1-306-244-4497

Email: [email protected] Web: www.saskethanol.com

Thursday, March 30, 2006 Greetings to Investors and Supporters, Welcome to the sixth Annual Meeting of Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation [SAC]. As an independent coalition of farm, rural and business leaders, SAC continues to be effective in challenging barriers and pursuing opportunities to increasing profitability at the farm gate through increased value-add processing. Saskatchewan Agrivision has worked diligently over the past three years to encourage industry leadership in the emerging ethanol sector across Canada. Together with APAS, SAC has led the development of the Saskatchewan Ethanol Development Council [SEDC]. We are pleased to share this annual meeting day with SEDC, which has made remarkable progress in “landing the ethanol industry” in Saskatchewan. The future for Saskatchewan’s agriculture sector is enormous but that optimism is based on understanding that substantial change is required, at every level of the system. The challenge of recent years is how to coordinate the transformation of a traditional commodity-based export economy to one of higher value. The future will be based on market-driven innovation and commercialization of new products and services aimed at the new economy, which is a bio-resource based economy. Saskatchewan’s sustainable, competitive advantage will be based on becoming a knowledge-based agriculture sector that will serve the world with new products for emerging markets. A special thanks to RBC Royal Bank for sponsoring Mr. Richard Worzel of Future Search, who will give us a glimpse of the “drivers of change” and why the future is bright for agriculture. Go to www.agrivision.ca for copies of this paper. Sincerely yours, Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation Inc.

C.M. (Red) Williams, PhD, PAg Al Scholz, PAg, CAC President Executive Director

The Future of Agriculture – The Drivers of Change March 30, 2006

© Copyright, IF Research, March 2006 [www.futuresearch.com] Page 1

Table of Contents

I. The Future” is a Dangerous Fantasy ____________________________________2 II. Foreign Competition & Declining Commodity Prices _____________________3 III. The Next Factor Is Greater Knowledge: We Are Learning More Both About

What Affects Our Bodies And How To Help Plants And Animals Grow_____4 IV. The Rise of Micro-Environmentalism____________________________________4 V. Which, Indirectly, Brings Me to Demographics___________________________6 VI The Internet and Assassin Marketing ___________________________________8 VII. Biotechnology and the Farm ___________________________________________9 VIII. Two Scenarios for 2036 _______________________________________________11 IX. Status Quo Future – Circa 2036________________________________________12 X. The Activist Future – Another Alternative View of the World: The Year 2036

– 30 years out …_____________________________________________________13 XI. What’s the Difference Between These Two Scenarios?__________________15 XII. What Can You Do To Get The Future You Want?________________________16



A View of Saskatchewan in 2036

The Future of Agriculture – The Drivers of Change A presentation for

Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation Inc. and

Saskatchewan Ethanol Development Council Saskatoon Prairieland Exhibition Centre, Terrace Room

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 12:30 to 1:30 p.m.

Thursday, March 30th, 2006

I. The Future” is a Dangerous Fantasy A. We tend to think about “the future” as if there is only one possible way that

events can unfold – and that’s dangerous 1. Somehow we think that if we’re just smart enough, or ask the right

economist, or politician, or futurist, or soothsayer, then all our problems with be solved.

2. It doesn’t happen that way, and you know it, but subconsciously that’s what we believe because it’s easier than coping with complexity

B. This kind of thinking tends to give us tunnel vision, and blind us to other possibilities

C. My job here is not to predict the future, but to help you plan and prepare for the uncertainty of the future.

D. A futurist is a planner, not a prophet 1. Although most people won’t admit it, but what they really want me to do is

give them a single, simple, right answer to one question: What lottery ticket should I buy?

E. Moreover, you are the experts on Saskatchewan agriculture, not me. My job is to give you a broader picture of the things you should prepare for, to help you gain some peripheral vision so that you’re less likely to be blind-sided by the unexpected.

F. People often ask if I spend a lot of time looking at trends, and the answer is: not really

1. A trend won’t tell you when the trend is about to change. 2. Instead, I watch the forces that drive change, because they can tell you

when the trend is about to change



G. If you look back over the last 50 years in Saskatchewan’s history, to the mid-1950s, most would agree that there has been a transformation in the province, and that the pace of change has been dizzying

1. However, as remarkable as changes have been in the past, not only is the pace of change accelerating, but the rate of acceleration is increasing as well.

H. So let’s look at the forces driving change in Saskatchewan over the next 25-50 years:

II. Foreign Competition & Declining Commodity Prices

A. Assuming that we don’t screw it up with a mutually destructive trade war, the global economy is going to continue to grow, and to offer new, rapidly growing markets

B. Of course, the other side of that coin is that it’s also going to produce new, rapidly expanding competition

C. Rapidly Developing Countries (RDCs) are modernizing their agriculture, boosting yields, while their labour costs are far lower than ours.

D. That means that if all farmers do is produce a commodity product, they’re going to be sitting ducks for international competition

E. Getting out of the commodity business should be an absolute priority for any farmer who plans to be in business 10 years from now.

1. And, just to be clear, what I mean by a “commodity” is a market product where the buyer’s primary consideration is price

2. Saskatchewan may still be exporting raw wheat in 50 years, but it will be a designer product for a specific customer where price is not the principal consideration.

F. If you look out into the future, you know that the competition for any commodity product is going to continue to rise, and protectionist legislation by a middle-power, such as Canada, cannot sustain farmers into the future

G. Accordingly, farmers should be looking for ways to add value to the production process, with higher productivity, better information, better crops or livestock, or by targeting and developing new market niches for what they produce

H. I would encourage them to think about what kinds of new markets they can create that will be defensible against low-cost commodity producers.

1. In my view, there is not now, and never will be again, a global shortage of food, and anyone who thinks that farm commodity prices will recover is living on hope, and not facing tomorrow’s realities



2. The green revolution is, if anything, just beginning, so that not only will there be more producers, but they will produce more per acre, at the same time as global population growth continues to slow

J. Let me now talk about possible approaches to finding such innovative ways to farm

III. The Next Factor Is Greater Knowledge: We Are Learning More

Both About What Affects Our Bodies And How To Help Plants And Animals Grow A. The Human Genome Project, the decoding of the DNA of other plants and

animals, and the explosion in the biosciences is dramatically accelerating our understanding of what affects our health

B. This is both positive and negative

C. The obvious aspects of this are that we’re going to be able to come up with new diagnostics, pharmaceuticals, and treatments that will allow us to live longer, healthier lives

1. There are researchers who are talking about the possibility of increasing human life expectancy by 50% over the next 20 years, which would raise it to well over 100, and about the potential for curing aging as if it were a disease or a condition

2. Raymond Kurzweil, in his recent book, The Fantastic Voyage, suggests that if you can survive the next 20 years, you can, theoretically, live forever – or at least, as long as you can afford to

D. The more subtle effects of having more knowledge are that the more we know, the greater our responsibilities will be

IV. The Rise of Micro-Environmentalism

A. We are starting to learn that the old saying that “one man’s food is another man’s poison” is literally true

B. For example, a successful pharmaceutical is effective between 50-70% of the time

1. This means that it is either ineffective, or actually causes harmful side effects 30-50% of the time

2. Current thinking is that this is due to SNPs (“Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms”), which are the subtle genetic differences between one person and another

C. The same is true for food: food that is healthy for one person may not be healthy for another



1. Cliché of the future: “Eat right for your genotype” 2. This is why some people with high cholesterol counts can control their

cholesterol through diet, and others see virtually no benefit from changing their diets, but have to resort to drugs to bring their cholesterol count down

3. Closer to home, I have Celiac disease, whereas my siblings and children do not. I can’t eat anything with the glutens of wheat, barley, rye, or oats.

4. I recently saw an article on Celiac disease in an issue of Pulse Point magazine. The author of that article – a research doctor – asserted that only one person out of 90 with Celiac disease is correctly diagnosed. I’m not quite sure where she got that statistic, but let’s accept it for the sake of argument.

5. If correct, this would mean that perhaps as many as 25% of Canadians shouldn’t eat wheat, rye, barley, and oats – or at least, those grains that haven’t been genetically tailored to exclude the specific protein found in gluten.

6. If true, this would represent a major new problem for grain farmers – and also represent an important new niche market for farmers who produce gluten-free carbohydrates.

7. I don’t actually believe that particular statistic is correct – I’m merely using it as an illustration of how new knowledge in genetics and health care have the potential to change some of the fundamentals of your business

D. At the same time, more knowledge also means more complications 1. Over time, people will want to know more and more about the food they

eat: what seed was used, how it was grown, what fertilizers were used, how it was harvested, and processed, how it was stored, and how it was finally prepared for dinner.

a. This is one reason why the “organic foods” movement is not a fad like the “zero carbs” fad, but will persist and probably grow in importance

b. There are today consumers who are willing to pay a premium for food certified to be organic, and I believe their numbers will continue to grow until “organic” foods become fully mainstream and cease being a niche.

2. Over time, our expanding knowledge is going to mean that the food industry, as a whole, will have to provide a pedigree for everything we eat

3. If this sounds far fetched, that is exactly what happened at a dinner given by the British Beef Marketing Board at the height of the Mad Cow crisis in the U.K.

a. They served beef for dinner – of course – but everybody found on their plate a description of which herds the cows came from, how they were raised, what they were fed, where they were slaughtered, how the meat was dressed, delivered, and cooked.



b. That was an extreme example – but also indicative of where we’re going

E. And, as an off-shoot of this, the aging of the baby boomers also means that there is a movement now towards functional foods (“nutraceutical”), and eating foods that promise health benefits and ways to manage health without drugs

1. This means that current food products that are, for instance, anti-oxidants will be promoted and become popular for that reason, like blueberries or green tea are right now

F. There is widespread belief within western Canadian agriculture that only a few producers will benefit from emerging “niche” markets, and that the majority of farmers must still rely on commodity production and marketing. I strongly disagree – over the next 25-50 years, I believe the future of virtually all Canadian farmers will be in niche markets, well away from mass-production, low margin commodities.

V. Which, Indirectly, Brings Me to Demographics

A. Globally, by 2050 India will be the #1 country in terms of population, with China #2, and the U.S. #3

1. Global population will peak around 2070 at just under 9 billion people

B. Canada’s population will peak around 2050, then start to decline

C. The shift to the cities within Canada will continue, and virtually all new immigrants will concentrate in the big urban centres, notably Toronto and Vancouver

D. The farm vote will shrink as the political power of the cities grows as well – less attention will be paid to farm issues

E. Number of children born will continue to dwindle – children will become almost rare, and both highly prized, and highly criticized as a nuisance

F. There will be major financial burdens from public & private pensions, and from the unfunded liabilities arising from health care promises

G. The only solution is greater productivity coupled with greater prosperity

H. Now let me talk specifically about three of the major domestic demographic issues that are going to offer you new opportunities – and cause you problems

I. First, the aging of the boomers (born 1946 to 1967 – leading edge turning 60 this year)

1. They are becoming more aware of their bodies, and will actively seek new ways to enhance their health and longevity

2. In particular, the boomers seem to be willing to buy anything that promises



to help keep them young and healthy – and many farm-fresh products can legitimately make that promise.

3. Targeted advertising that offers them health benefits, especially prolonging their youth, will pay off in higher sales

J. The echo boom: the next big thing in demographics 1. The echo boomers are the children of the baby boom 2. They are currently aged from roughly 10 to 30 (born 1976 to 1996)

(although this group is not quite as well defined as the boomers themselves).

3. The leading edge of this group is emerging into the labour force, and they will be the ones that set up new homes, buy all the household furnishings, and start new families

4. They are also the most globally aware consumers in history, and have a taste for fusion cooking – i.e., foods from all over the world

5. This is particularly true in the major urban centres, which receive most of Canada’s immigrants

6. They will buy new tastes, plus health benefits 7. They are more likely to be vegetarians, both ethical and practical, than their

parents were at this stage in their lives – and that, too, may affect what you produce and sell

a. But they are also less loyal than their parents, so other than protectionist barriers and sentiment, is there some compelling reason why they would want to buy farm products from you, as opposed to, say fruit from Mexico, wheat from America, lamb from Australia or New Zealand, or pulse products from India? What have you got that makes you different that takes your product out of the plain commodity category?

8. What they won’t buy is cynical marketing: they use the Internet to check things out, and information flies through their global community

K. The downside of demographics: the threat of a shrinking workforce 1. I don’t have to tell you that it’s hard today to attract young people to the

business of farming 2. Moreover, there just aren’t going to be as many young people coming in as

older folks retiring in any industry

a. For every 12 boomers edging towards retirement over the next 10 years, there will only be about 3 echoes edging into the workforce

3. But with aggressive use of new tools, and an eye towards developing niche markets, I believe it should be possible to make farming a cutting-edge industry in rich countries like Canada – one that offers opportunity and



becomes attractive to young people for more than just the lifestyle 4. If I’m right that the future of Canadian farming is in tailored crops and niche

markets, and in the use of new tools and methods of marketing farm products, then there is no reason why farming cannot be a profitable industry that attracts young people for the income as well as the lifestyle. I know this is not the commonly held view of farming, and it is true that if we keep doing the same things, the attractiveness of farming will continue to decline.

5. But if we want to talk about the future of farming, then we should talk about how it can be successful, not just how we can manage the decline

VI The Internet and Assassin Marketing

A. I’ve already talked about how people are going to become more aware of the food they eat, and how individuals will become aware of the unique needs of their bodies

B. These two drivers of change will, I believe, lead to niche farming – where farmers start growing crops, organic, conventional, or genetically modified, to suit the needs of people with specific genetic needs

C. Now add the ability of the Internet to deliver customized messages, as with www.amazon.com, and the increasing use of data mining, and you get the potential for much more direct relationships between farmers and consumers

1. Traditional broadcast marketing: hunting with a shotgun 2. Narrowcasting: hunting with a rifle 3. Assassin marketing: hunting for specific individuals with a sniper scope,

and hitting them with a message specifically tailored to their interests and psychology

D. I believe that within 30-50 years, we will see a customized revolution in food farming that will transform the economics of farming – for those willing to use the new information tools we have at our disposal, and who are prepared to embark on new ways of doing things

1. On the other hand, if we keep doing the same things, we will keep getting the same results, and the attractiveness of farming will continue to decline.

E. Moreover, farming will also have to compete with new means of food production 1. Part of the reason for this is that we will be able to grow nutrients in vats,

without ever visiting a farm, including animal protein 2. Although vat-grown meat has been a staple of science fiction for decades,

it is now moving towards reality, and over the next two to three decades will become a factor in the marketplace



a. New Scientist magazine article, 20 March 2002, “Fish fillets grow in tank”

F. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though, as food farming will represent a declining share of agricultural output

VII. Biotechnology and the Farm

A. The 21st Century will, I believe, come to be known as the Bioscience Century, when the promise of genetics, coupled with the use of computers to perform research, will transform what we do and how we do it.

B. Farming for industrial feed stocks and materials, on the other hand, will become big business because it will be both more environmentally friendly, and more cost efficient than traditional manufacturing

1. Agribusiness will fill the prairies with plants producing feedstock for plastics and nanotech monofilaments and materials for manufacturing, livestock for pharmaceuticals and vaccines, and ethanol for both car gas tanks and hydrogen production on a rapidly expanding scale.

2. Traditional products, especially those made from petroleum feedstock’s, will increasingly be made from bio-based products instead, such as:

a. Seat foam and resin panels for cars from soybeans

b. Spider’s silk polymers, used in everything from bullet-proof vests to surgical silk, from genetically-tailored bacteria and silkworms

c. Polymers for clothing, fabrics, and polylactide plastics made from genetically-tailored plants;

d. Concrete reinforcement, which will use flax straw instead of steel;

e. Biopolyesters, such as those developed by Metabolix, which will be used for adhesives and resin coatings and moldings, as well as biodegradable packaging

f. Injection molded plastics pioneered using flax fibers for reinforcement instead of non-biodegradable fiberglass

C. Meanwhile, the high price of petroleum is doing more than decades of government platitudes and environmental wishful thinking could: creating a market for alternative fuels

1. A steadily rising percentage of the electricity, for instance, used by commerce and industry will come from on-site fuel cells powered by ethanol or hydrogen made directly from ethanol, which will both reduce costs, and lower the environmental impact of industrial operations

D. The amount of petroleum burned as fuel, or used as feedstock will shrink dramatically.



1. This is a multi-stage process: it won’t all happen at once, but it will start immediately – in fact, it has already started

2. What’s happening already is widespread experimentation with fuels and systems, such as hybrid cars, that produce fewer greenhouse gases (GHGs).

3. As processors settle on the most cost-efficient means of production, they will start to build larger and larger prototype plants, and then production plants

E. But what has to happen is an act of political will – governments have to encourage the usage of ethanol and biodiesel in vehicles, if only to offset the subsidies now given for the production and use of petroleum

1. The payoff is big: potentially lower fuel costs immediately, plus significantly lower GHG emissions

2. In fact, I can’t see any other way that Canada can meet it’s Kyoto Accord commitments other than through a major increase in the use of ethanol and biodiesel – especially ethanol – which recycle carbon, rather than releasing it from fossil carbon sinks

F. Beyond that, starting within the next 5-10 years, ethanol production will migrate towards cellulose ethanol, made from straw, waste wood, or through crops grown on wasteland

1. Based on some of the work that’s being done right now by Iogen of Ottawa and SunOpta of Brampton, Ontario, ethanol from grain will likely be replaced by cheaper, more economical – and therefore more profitable – ethanol from cellulose – typically straw or waste wood

a. Moreover, ethanol made this way will be cheaper than gasoline 2. Iogen of Ottawa is currently contracting with wheat farmers to buy the

stalks and chaff from their harvests to turn into ethanol, and they claim it will be at a price that’s lower than gasoline

3. Moreover, it’s possible to build production plants for ethanol from grain, such as wheat, now, and then build another plant for pre-processing ethanol from straw next to it

a. The result is a system that gets steadily more cost-effective as time – and research – progresses

G. Ironically, the ultimate limit to the production and use of ethanol may not be the cost, but rather the amount of land available for cultivation – a very different image of the future than the one farmers face today

1. According to Lionel LaBelle of the Saskatchewan Ethanol Development Council, if Canada were to start blending 10% ethanol into all gasoline sold domestically, that would amount to more than 60 billion liters a year

2. To make 60+ billion liters using existing technology (41 for gasoline, 23 for



diesel), would take about 6 billion bushels of wheat or canola, producing a yield of about 10 liters of fuel per bushel,

a. Therefore, at the national average yield of 30 bushels per acres, producing 6 billion liters of fuel would take approximately 20 million acres

b. Since Saskatchewan has about 50% of the national total of farmland, then if it were to produce half of this ethanol total, it would take up about 30% of your average annual seeded acres

3. According to Statistics Canada, there are a total of about 90 million acres of farmland under cultivation in all of Canada – hence, to move to 50% ethanol or biodiesel as fuel using existing technology would take more farmland than Canada currently has under cultivation under existing assumptions

4. But that’s using existing technologies – the future will be more productive, and produce more fuel at lower costs and with lower acreage, especially as we can grow wheat for food, for instance, then use the stalks and chafe for ethanol, or start using waste wood from forest products to produce ethanol

H. However, no one interested in the future of ethanol should expect the transition to be smooth or easy

1. No matter what they may say publicly, the petroleum industry as a whole is not going to give up without a fight, either here or globally

2. They will lobby behind closed doors, arguing about lost jobs in the petroleum industry, ignoring the new jobs created from ethanol, especially in rural areas

3. Publicly, either directly or through other people, they will “wonder” about the organotoxins that are released when ethanol is burned (ignoring the much more dangerous emissions from burning petroleum), and suggest that we really need the farmland for food production

4. It’s going to be a battle – but one I believe they will ultimately lose because ethanol makes sense, it will be more cost-effective, and because the public will demand it once the word starts to get out, be understood, and accepted (and that takes time)

VIII. Two Scenarios for 2036

A. Now, having set the stage for what might happen over the next 25-50 years, let me now paint two very different possible scenarios for the future of agriculture, and the future of Saskatchewan

1. Status quo future – what happens if current trends continue undisturbed? 2. Activist future – how would it be different if Saskatchewan intervenes to

create a Desired Future?



IX. Status Quo Future – Circa 2036 A. Agriculture swamped by dependence on commodity products

1. Agricultural output has trended slowly downwards for the last 30 years – which is a disaster because agricultural productivity has continued to rise, meaning that fewer farmers are needed

2. Saskatchewan farmers and the Saskatchewan government adopted a conservative, cautious approach to the future in the 2000s, sticking to those things that had been proven in the past, including traditional crops, traditional markets, and traditional marketing

a. In effect, rural Saskatchewan has become like the Australian outback – a deserted place that only tourists visit

3. Saskatchewan farm incomes have continued to drop as agricultural surpluses continued to rise around the world, putting continuous downward pressure on profits, even in good years

4. Indeed, the cynical description of Saskatchewan’s current expertise is the ability to wring money out of Ottawa. Persistent appeals to the federal government through the 2010s and 2020s for what turned out to be ever-larger bail-outs seemed to be the only policy initiatives of successive, short-lived governments in Regina, until finally the national urban vote forced federal politicians to cut back on what were described as “pointless bail-outs of a dying industry”.

5. “Besides,” as the PM recently said, “we need that money to protect what remains of the national health care system.”

B. The lost generation 1. Because of lower incomes, Saskatchewan effectively lost an entire

generation – the second largest in history – as the echo boomers left farms in droves, seeking a better, more secure ways to make a living elsewhere

2. While some of them moved into the potash, uranium, oil, and diamond mining industries, that was not enough to keep population steady, or attract new immigrants to the province

C. Vanishing towns 1. Scores of smaller centres became ghost towns, as farms were abandoned,

and the businesses that served them failed. 2. And the major urban centres in the province are suffering as well – with no

underlying industry to support them, they are floundering, and looking for a raison d’être

D. Population dwindles 1. The total population of Saskatchewan is now down to about 890,000 –



lower than it was in 1940 2. It would be lower still, but the birth rate of aboriginal peoples is higher than

for the Caucasian population – aboriginal peoples currently comprise more than 50% of the population, and they are being both badly hurt and discouraged by the decline in employment and economic activity

3. Working age population is heavily skewed towards older people as younger people have largely left

E. Looking back, it’s clear that when Saskatchewan abandoned its long-range planning and long range plans, around 2010, it committed an enormous mistake, and effectively abandoned its own future

F. Today, the economy of Saskatchewan is near collapse, and the most popular quip is “Will the last person to leave the province, please turn out the lights”

G. A few farms have survived as tourist sites, while thousands of acres of farmland are returning to buffalo grass

X. The Activist Future – Another Alternative View of the World The Year 2036 – 30 years out … A. Today (March 30, 2006), Saskatchewan is reaping the benefits of the foresight

and investments it made in the 2000s.

B. The province is experiencing several different kinds of boom, population is approaching 1.5 million, and projected to reach 2 million by the middle of the century

C. Projections for the next 20 years warn that infrastructure needed for the future is inadequate, and will require billions more in government investment across the province, and employers are complaining about the employment shortage

1. Young people seeking opportunity are flocking to the province, especially those who come from a farm background, and appreciate the lifestyle

2. Moreover, with the advances in communications that mean they can experience almost any entertainment available in the big cities, right in their own homes, they feel they’re getting the best of both worlds – especially as the Saskatchewan government made a point of creating a development plan for the province’s major airports and communications infrastructure in the 2010s

3. The aboriginal community now comprises not quite a third of provincial population, and has leveraged the province’s economic prosperity into prosperity for First Nations peoples, both directly as farmers, as industrial workers, as biotech researchers, and by remembering that the people who truly got wealthy in the gold rushes of earlier centuries were the sutlers – the people who supplied what the miners needed. By investing in education and supporting industries, Saskatchewan aboriginals now find



themselves fielding queries from native peoples from Australia, South America, South Africa, and many other parts of the world

C. The provincial government’s biggest fights with Ottawa these days are to keep equalization payments down. The province keeps complaining that it’s subsidizing too many old people back east

D. Much of this is due to the continuing booms in uranium and diamonds – but that’s really just the frosting on the cake

E. The real boom is in the rural economy, as farming has sprung back to life over the last 20 years

F. Saskatchewan has been a leader in Canada and the world in exploiting the new possibilities of agriculture

1. While Saskatchewan has been recognized as leading the agricultural biotech revolution since the 2000s, it didn’t initially follow-up with successful exploitation of the research done here. Over the last 30 years, this has changed in biotech innovation, and the use of agricultural land for industrial crops as well as tailored farming for specific genotypes, all of which has helped farmers find new sources of revenue, and have taken them out of the business of producing commodity crops

2. But the biggest boost of all has been the groundswell resulting from Saskatchewan’s lead in the production of alternative fuels

G. Ethanol & hydrogen 1. Starting in the 2010s, the demand for ethanol started to build. Partly this

was due to a trendy wish to fight climate change – much as the initial introduction of the Toyota Prius owed more to an eco-friendly appearance than reality.

2. But the clincher was the continuing decline in the cost of ethanol compared to gasoline as the technology to produce ethanol got better and better

a. Indeed, the real decline in petroleum prices over the last decade is almost directly attributed to the rising competition from ethanol

3. This success story is a classic case study – lots of bumps in the road, lots of political battles over subsidies, pressure groups, lobbying by other provinces for ethanol production in their provinces, and the nagging need for investment capital in production capacity

4. But the deciding factor was the cost-effectiveness of building ethanol production plants close to the source of agricultural production to minimize transportation costs

5. Moreover, Saskatchewan has kept the innovation pipeline humming for the last two decades, introducing more cost-efficient ways of producing and using ethanol, assisting in the development of fuel cells that use ethanol for the production of electricity, and, more recently, investing in ways of



turning ethanol into hydrogen in ways that are cost-effective, which may finally overcome both the economic disadvantages of hydrogen, and help it recover from the hype that has made so many people leery of hydrogen for the last 20 years

H. Now Saskatchewan has to prepare for the next 30 years 1. For the last two decades, Saskatchewan has been a leader in the

production and use of alternative fuels, and has been exporting almost as much intellectual capital as it has industrial production

2. But now the rest of the world has caught up, and the province’s lead in alternative fuels is evaporating – such fuels are today a commodity, just as durum wheat was in the 2000s.

3. So, what does Saskatchewan do for an encore? It can’t rest on it s laurels – tempting though that is as it savors its success

4. The world keeps changing, and to stay alive, and preserve its lifestyle the province and its people must stay near the cutting edge

5. Now the world will get to see if Saskatchewan’s success over the last 30 years was due to its luck of being in the right place when alternative fuels burst on the world, or whether it deserves its recent successes

XI. What’s the Difference Between These Two Scenarios?

A. If you look at them, they are almost diametrically opposed – so much so that it seems unlikely that both are possible

B. Yet, the world’s thirst for energy is not going to go away. In fact, unless we get hit with a major disaster, it must continue to grow, and rapidly

C. As ethanol proves its worth in the marketplace, and is accepted as more desirable than petroleum, then, as Alberta has shown with its investment in the oil sands, if you put yourself in the way of success, then success is more likely to come

D. But the real difference between the two scenarios is the clarity of thought (also called “vision”) to look for the possibilities of the future, the political leadership and will to head for your main chance, and the boldness to act outside of traditional boundaries. In the second scenario, Saskatchewan plotted for its success, invested in it, and committed to it with clear-eyed consistency.

E. Such consistency and foresight is neither popular, nor easy. A recent report on the “state of the future” by the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., reports that interest in, and preparation for the future has declined significantly since the burst of interest in 2000.

F. So the difference in these two scenarios is your dedication to creating the future you want, rather than waiting for the future you want.



G. I commend and applaud the far-sightedness of Agrivision I commend and applaud the far-sightedness of Agrivision and its business and community investors. But making a good beginning is dangerous because it can lead you to complacency.

XII. What Can You Do To Get The Future You Want?

A. First and foremost, you need to commit to the future, not just plan and talk about it 1. One of my favourite quotes from Peter Drucker is “No matter how good an

idea is, it eventually has to degenerate into work.” 2. The hard part is doing it, and overcoming the inevitable problems that crop

up 3. There are techniques for doing this, including a number of futurist

techniques – make sure you use them, but aren’t captured by them

B. Make sure all sectors are in alignment and working on the same team: farmers and investors, politicians and business people, native-born and immigrant alike

1. And make sure you don’t waste human capital, because at the end of the day, that is your greatest resource

C. You have a great opportunity before you, both in alternative fuels, and agriculture generally – but only if you capitalize on them

D. Arie de Geus, formerly of Royal Dutch Shell’s futurist planning group: “Learning faster than your competitors is the only sustainable competitive advantage in an environment of rapid change and innovation”

E. Alan Kay: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

F. Good luck, and God speed. Thank you. Richard Worzel Future Search



Speaker Profile

Richard Worzel

Futuresearch Futuresearch 149 Hillsdale Ave. E. Toronto, ON M4S 1T4 Tel: (416) 489-4511 Fax: (306) 489-8783 Email: [email protected] Website: www.futuresearch.com

Richard Worzel is Canada’s leading futurist, with a client list that includes such companies as IBM, 3Com, Scotiabank, the National Research Council, and Ford Motor Company.

An American by birth, he came to Canada as an immigrant and is now a Canadian citizen. He studied computer science, economics and world trade in university, and has written articles on the future for The Report on Business, Teach magazine, Canada Computes, and The Financial Post, among others.

He started work in the investment industry as an institutional investor, and received the industry’s Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1978. Since 1979, he has run his own consulting firm, helping companies and organizations plan and prepare for the future.

Richard has written five best-selling books, including “The Next 20 Years of Your Life.” His latest book, Who Owns Tomorrow, reached the Financial Post’s best-seller list in the second week of publication. He is a Scout leader, and lives in Toronto with his wife and two children

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