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A SECOND WARNING BY THE CLUB OF ROME

The Club of Rome publ ished in the Fa l l of 1972 a l i t t l e book on The L im i t s To Growth* which shocked the wor ld . Over a long per iod of t ime men have t r i e d to ob ta in maximum outpu t w i th minimum inpu t and e f f o r t s w i th the f i n a l goa l : a t t a i nmen t of the g rea tes t ma te r i a l we l f a re . Now someone warned tha t t h i s e x e r t i o n would lead to d i s a s t e r .

The Club, an i n t e r n a t i o n a l group of approx imate ly t h i r t y scho la r s , s c i e n t i s t s , i n d u s t r i a l i s t s , and bankers had sponsored a research by Dennis Meadows of the Massachusetts I n s t i t u t e of Technology who, w i th the help of assoc ia tes , showed t ha t i n d u s t r i a l

i rowth is l i m i t e d and t ha t mankind is c lose to the b o r d e r l i n e and in some ins tances has a l ready passed i t ) beyond which l i e s

d e s t r u c t i o n . Mankind, they s t a t e d , was on the way to s u i c i d e . The i r advice was to stop the speedy increase of p roduc t ion to which we had proud ly committed ourse lves and thus to avoid c a t a s t r o p h i c eco log i ca l consequences and t o t a l exhaust ion of resources and m a t e r i a l s . Prompt ac t i on was necessary.

Of course, c r i t i c s had quick r e p l i e s , some of them j u s t i f i e d , but the warning by the Club of Rome drew wide a t t e n t i o n and produced a great impact.

During October 1974 at the meeting of the Club in B e r l i n a second repo r t was submi t ted . This cont inued the study of mankind 's predicament , but i t explored in g rea te r d e t a i l the expected deve lop- ments in var ious regions of the wor ld . M iha j l o Mesarovic of the Case Western Reserve U n i v e r s i t y in C leve land, and Edward Pestel of the Technica l U n i v e r s i t y Hanover in Germany, repor ted on Die Menschkeit am Wendepunkt (Mankind on the Turn ing P o i n t ) . The repo r t was more complete and more comprehensive but no less shocking than the f i r s t r e p o r t of 1972. I t showed a gloomy p i c t u r e f o r the immediate f u t u r e and t r i e d to impress on the r i ch i n d u s t r i a l coun t r i es of the wor ld t ha t they would have to learn to make s a c r i f i c e s and to give up many of those th ings which have made l i f e more comfo r tab le . The repo r t r e i t e r a t e d tha t the speedy development and i nc reas ing growth of i n d u s t r i a l p roduc t ion would have to be reduced d r a s t i c a l l y or i t had to be stopped e n t i r e l y .

In a d d i t i o n to i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the e f f e c t s of u n l i m i t e d i n d u s t r i a l growth, the study also compared popu la t i on growth and food p roduc t i on . They argue tha t a prompt and e f f i c i e n t popu la t i on p o l i c y alone would not b r ing a prompt s o l u t i o n to the many grave problems. In some par ts of the wor ld such as Asia and South America a s t a t i o n a r y popu la t ion would be reached only a f t e r 75 yea rs , when the popu la t i on had a l ready doubled, s ince h a l f of the present popu la t i on in these regions is less than 16 years o l d , not ye t in the c h i l d b e a r i n g age. On the o ther hand, the q u a n t i t i e s of f o o d s t u f f per cap i ta did not increase since 1936, in f a c t they were reduced dur ing the l a s t few years . Serious consequences are obvious. The repo r t s t a t e s : i f noth ing is done r i g h t now 500 m i l l i o n s of c h i l d r e n w i l l s tarve w i t h i n 50 years .

I n t e r e s t i n g are the s tud ies connected w i th the consequences of the high o i l p r i c e s . I t is i nd i ca ted tha t the low pr ices of the past would have lead to great economic d i f f i c u l t i e s in the long run. The e x p l o i t a t i o n of the o i l reserves at low market p r i ces would not have s t imu la ted search f o r new energy sources. The f u t u r e now depends l a r g e l y on the p roduc t i ona l behavior of the i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s .