A Review of Climate Change and Fossil Fuel Consumption

Earth Temperature AnomalyLeft click below for video

“Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the world - if there were none, the world would be some 30C colder, and there would be no human life. But while some concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases is essential to life, too high a level could spell disaster. “ “And by burning fossil fuels we are on a path to more than double atmospheric concentrations of CO2 above pre-industrial levels. This will produce significant global warming with highly unpredictable regional climatic effects that could severely harm human welfare...”

“African countries emitting on average less than 2 tonne per capita per year can hardly be expected to make cuts if countries like Britain or Australia, with emissions 5 to 15 times higher, are unwilling to lead. The good news is our high emissions mean that there are numerous opportunities to cut emissions at low cost.”

Adair Turner, chairman of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and a former director-general of the Confederation of British Industry.

Current CO2 Levels 394 ppm

Scientist predict we are on track for 800 ppm by the end of the century

CO2 Graph at Mauna Loa in Hawaii

There is arguably an exponential growth trend line

The periodicity is due to the influence of the northern hemisphere forests’ winter dormancy

IPCC

Variations on Earth’s Surface Temperature

South West

South West

Australia contributes 1.4% of global man-made greenhouse emissions.

Yes, but... CO2 per capita is more important

AUSTRALIA

CHINA

Australia has only 0.3% of the Earth’s population, but 1.4% of its emissions

UK/GERMANY/ JAPAN

Some Climate Change Deniers Blame Solar Activity for Global Warming

http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptic_arguments/the-sun-is-the-problem.html

TEMP

SOLAR ACTIVITY

CO2

Some Climate Change Deniers Blame Volcanoes for the Increase in CO2

How can this be checked?

The Source of Atmospheric CO2

The composition of the carbon dioxide is typical of biological carbon from fossil fuels rather than volcanic activity. Only 1% has volcanic origin.

Droughts and FloodsPredictions of global warming modelling:

–Rainfall will continue to become concentrated in increasingly heavy but less frequent events.

–The incidence, intensity, and duration of both floods and drought will increase.

Both of these appear to be happening

NASA Projected Arctic Ice Retreat

NASAhttp://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/voulgarakis_01/fig1.jpg

BP, the largest oil company in the UK and one of the largest in the world, has this to say about global warming:

“There is an increasing consensus that climate change is linked to the consumption of carbon based fuels and that action is required now to avoid further increases in carbon emissions as the global demand for energy increases.”

BP and Climate Change

“Climate change is a major global challenge – one that will require the efforts of governments, industry and individuals...”

“...We support the use of a carbon price – one that applies economy-wide and treats all carbon equally, whether it comes out of an industrial smokestack or a car tailpipe. Carbon pricing will make energy efficiency and conservation more attractive, and make lower-carbon fuels like natural gas, nuclear power and renewables more cost competitive within the energy mix...”

BP and Climate Change

Shell Oil says: “Shell shares the widespread concern that the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities is leading to changes in the global climate.”

http://environment.about.com/od/faqglobalwarming/f/gw_faq_hoax.htm

Other Oil Company Views

Caltex Oil says:“...Caltex is committed to addressing the serious issue of climate change by working with governments to develop effective policies to reduce emissions.”

“Caltex accepts the science behind global warming...”

In a speech before the Australian-British Chamber of Commerce, BHP Billiton CEO Marius Kloppers said BHP "acknowledges that the mainstream science is correct, and that we need to stabilize - and eventually reduce - the carbon concentration in the atmosphere.“

Scientific American December 21, 2010

BHP Billiton Company View

While BHP prefers an international climate framework, he said, the more likely path will eventually harmonize local policies aimed at cutting emissions into a unified global action. "We believe that such a global initiative will eventually come," he told his audience.

Kloppers urged Australia to impose a high enough cost on carbon pollution to drive investment in energy alternatives and technology. He urged the power sector to start weaning itself from coal. "Failure to do so will place us at a competitive disadvantage in a future where carbon is priced globally," he said.

Scientific American December 21, 2010

BHP Billiton Company View

“[As managers] we are paid to understand and manage risk. And we think [global warming] is a significant risk and we need to mitigate it. We are also paid to understand opportunities and we think a shift to a low-carbon economy will create opportunities. And the most efficient way of reducing emissions ... is establishing a price on carbon. And the most efficient way to do that is cap and trade.”

Confederation of British Industry

Emissions Trading Scheme and Industry

Why we need a carbon tax, by the Coalition’s environment spokesman, the Hon. Greg Hunt

:

In 1990 Greg Hunt co-authored a university thesis entitled

A Tax to Make the Polluter Pay. His conclusion: “…Ultimately it is by harnessing the natural economic forces which drive society that the pollution tax offers us an opportunity to exert greater control over our environment…”

Professor Lomborg, an author and academic at Copenhagen Business School, is calling for a tax on carbon emissions to fund international efforts to boost wind, wave, solar and nuclear power.

Money is also needed to cover the research and development costs of innovative projects to counter rising temperatures, he argues...He writes: "Investing $100bn annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the climate change problem by the end of this century..." "The point I've always been making is it's not the end of the world. That's why we should be measuring up to what everybody else says, which is we should be spending our money well."

[Professor] Lomborg’s unequivocal warning about the potentially disastrous consequences of the world’s reliance on fossil fuels will provide a welcome boost for environmentalists at a time when the science behind global warming is coming under increasing scrutiny.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/7972383/Climate-sceptic-Bjorn-Lomborg-now-believes-global-warming-is-one-of-worlds-greatest-threats.html

Bjorn Lomborg

Proposed Carbon Pricing Mechanism

12

3

4

5

67

Proposed Carbon Pricing Mechanism

As an instance of what is currently happening with regard to CO2 emissions, Victorian brown coal has between 48 to 70% water content. This means that between 480 kg and 700 kg of water has to be evaporated before the fuel can be burnt. This translates to a net calorific value of around 10 MJ/kg, as against around 35 MJ/kg for black coal. The brown coal is very cheap because it is in seams of around 100 m thick, and usually has only around twenty metres of overburden. It is cheap, dirty and has high CO2 emissions. There is every incentive to use it and nothing currently will deter its use.

To enhance the economics of alternative energy, arguably a penalty has to apply to energy systems which emit CO2. If this is instituted, many alternative energy systems which are now marginal will become viable.Examples include:

• Oil mallee plantations supplying biofuel to power stations in Western Australia• The Solar Updraft tower• The Atmospheric Vortex Engine• Tidal Power• Geothermal Energy• Wave Power• Wind Power

Let’s have a look at some of them.

Creating the Incentive to Use Clean Energy

An Example - Geothermal Energy

It’s been estimated that Australia has enough geothermal energy to supply its energy needs for 4600 years. That is arguably conservative.

Geothermal Energy

An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower

Two towers are being built in Arizona, with the first scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2015

An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower

An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower part 1

Left click below for video

An Example - The Solar Updraft Tower part 2Left click below for video

The Solar Updraft Tower is being built in Arizona by an Australian company which had originally proposed to build it in Australia. They got no encouragement from Australian governments. The Arizona government gave them access to cheap desert lands.

Another Australian initiative has gone offshore due to the lack of government action.

European Offshore Wind Farm

An Example - Offshore Wind Farm Development

UK Offshore Developments

Total 26 GW total

An Example – Underwater Tidal Power Turbines

Tidal Intensity Map

“AN AUSTRALIAN company, using technology that a young Queensland engineer designed, is expected this week to announce a string of international contracts.”“Atlantis Resources Corporation has developed turbines that can generate electricity from the sea's movement. It has begun trials at San Remo in Victoria.”“The tidal farm will have capacity to power a million homes.”“ ‘This is a story of a group of young Australians doing wonderful things on a global scale,’ Atlantis chief executive Timothy Cornelius said.”“He said the deep-water Solon turbine that 28-year-old Dr John Keir had designed was considered the world's most efficient underwater generator.”

This is being implemented in Scotland’s Pentland Firth by 2013: Another Australian initiative has gone offshore due to the lack of government action.

In Britain there is a general appreciation that a low-carbon economy can be a prosperous one, and that the costs of global inaction on climate change would be great. There is therefore cross-party consensus behind the stretching target of an 80 per cent cut in Britain's greenhouse gas emission below 1990 levels by 2050. This was made a legal commitment of the British government by the Climate Change Act of 2008.The 80 per cent cut would bring Britain's emissions down from around 14 tonnes per person in 1990 to around 2 tonnes per person by mid-century. This compares with a current Australian level of 27 tonnes per person. Already Britain is about 25 per cent below the 1990 level, and the Conservative/Liberal coalition government has recently agreed a path that will further reduce emissions by about 50 per cent by 2025.Adair Turner is chairman of the UK Committee on Climate Change, and a former director-general of the Confederation of British Industry.

Prosperity and Sustainability can go hand in hand

By 2020, Virgin Blue wants 5 per cent of its fuel to be sourced from biofuel and the airline is backing eucalyptus mallee from Western Australia to provide it...[Virgin Australia]... said there were farmers in Western Australia who had been growing trees for 15 years to combat soil salinity and erosion problems. Farmers would harvest the trees by cutting them to ground level, then waiting for them to regrow. The wood is chipped to fine particles, which are heated without oxygen, breaking the particles down into solids, liquids and gas. The liquid is used as fuel and should be in Virgin's tanks by 2014. The solid and gaseous components have other industrial applications. White said it would take 2 million hectares of eucalyptus trees to fuel Australia's domestic air travel, and so far there are just 12,000 hectares growing.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/sun-shines-on-all-sources-not-just-the-power-of-one-20111001-1l2ti.html#ixzz1ZxnI3RH9

Mallee for Fuel

China’s Renewable Energy Plan

Loy Yang Open Cut Mine

VICTORIAN GEOTHERMAL

The geothermal reserves coincide with the largest deposits of brown coal

PHOTO CREDIT: Loy Yang Power Station

The brown coal mine at the Loy Yang Power Station. These coal dredges are the size of a building that is several storeys high! The largest open-cut coal mine in the world is nearby. And these are both dwarfed by the brown coal beds that have not yet been tapped into!

[Scientists are exploring the option] of using a different carrier to bring the [geothermal] heat energy up to the surface, because there is not a lot of water available in the region, and what little there is would be expensive and could corrode the pipes. One possible carrier is liquid carbon dioxide, from carbon dioxide ‘captured’ from the coal-fired power stations in the region. They also are investigating how they can improve its ability to ‘carry’ the heat energy using certain kinds of nanoparticles (particles about the size of molecules). Research on this new technology has already been carried out in places like the United States.

Harnessing renewable energy is not easy, and the cost is significant.

On the other hand there is a strong argument that it must be done:

“[Global warming is] perhaps the most consequential problem ever confronted by Mankind. Like it or not, we have been handed Phaeton’s reins, and we will have to learn how to control climate if we are to avoid his fate.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel, Head of Department of Atmospheric Physics MIT

END