FAO CGIAR WMO

Examples of human activities leading to GEC:

Deforestation

Fossil fuel consumption

Urbanisation

Land reclamation

Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction

Fisheries overexploitation

Waste production

Global Environmental ChangeAnthropogenic Causes

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

Global Environmental ChangeManifestations

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of

GEC on food systems and to assess the

environmental and socioeconomic consequences of

adaptive responses aimed at improving food security.

GECAFS Goal

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

GECAFS Fundamental Questions

FOOD UTILISATION

Food System Components & Key Research Elements

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

FOOD AVAILABILITY

HIV-AIDS

Climate variability & extreme events

Political Unrest

Sea Level Rise

Currency Fluctuations

Water Availability

Economic Recession

Changes in Sea Currents & Salinity

Change in Trading Agreements

Food Systems are vulnerable tomultiple interactive stressors

Biodiversity loss

Land degradation

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Research

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research

i. Food Systems Conceptsii. Vulnerability Conceptsiii. Scenario Constructioniv. Decision Support Systems

2. Regional Food Systems Research

i. Indo-Gangetic Plainii. Caribbeaniii. Southern Africa

Research Approaches

Science Agendas

Development Agendas

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

Science

Natural Socio-economic

Research Relevance & Stakeholders

Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets generic science issues

improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems

integrates natural and social sciences

adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science

underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conceptual & Methodological Research

International networking approach Led by small, specialist committees

Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets regional scientific issues

relates to regional development needs

interacts effectively with the regional policy making process

encourages more support for the regional science communities

provides contexts for conceptual research

Regional studies approach Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO

Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

Caribbean Regional Research

GECFAS SANREM Project in relation toGECAFS Caribbean and Conceptual Research

GECAFSCaribbean Research

SANREMproject

GECAFS DSS

Research

GECAFS Food Systems &

Vulnerability Research

GECAFS Scenarios Research

GECFAS Caribbean SANREM Project

• Build on considerable progress• Kingston W/S as a means to reconcile:

SANREM requirementsIdentified Caribbean policy & research QsGECAFS framework