A Professional Prospectus

Nick NauslarM.S. Student/Research Assistant

Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Nevada, Reno & Desert

Research Institute

Growing Up

• Lived in 9 cities in my 23+ years (Omaha, Detroit, Des Moines, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, south Texas, Norman, and Reno)

• Big sports fan (Cubs, Broncos, Bulls, Red Wings, OU, and Michigan)

• Love to play sports, be outdoors, and travel

Interest in Weather

• Get bored easily, like things that keep changing

• Enjoy predicting/forecasting • Godfather and Uncle struck by lightning

playing football in college• You can see it, feel it, and experience it

everyday

Education

• Graduated in 2004 from Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas

• Graduated in 2008 from University of Oklahoma, B.S. in Meteorology

• Currently attending University of Nevada, Reno for M.S. in Atmospheric Science

Training and Experience (Non-weather related)

• Worked as a maintenance man at my dad’s nursing home for 2 summers

• Worked at special events for Capital Distributing in Oklahoma City for 3 years during college

• Learned a lot about hard work and interpersonal communication at both jobs

Training and Experience

• Worked from 2/06 to 8/08 at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey as a Outreach Student Assistant

• Coordinated logistics for classes• Prepared and created lecture materials for

classes (case studies, cheat sheets, etc.)• Taught classes/lessons

Training and Experience

• Worked as a weather intern at KOCO-5 in Oklahoma City summer of 2007.

• Prepared on-air graphics, performed research, contributed to weather blog, and during severe weather provided support and analysis for on-air meteorologist

• Earned valuable experience with green screen practice and overall sense of broadcast meteorology

Training and Experience

• On-air meteorologist every Wednesday and Friday for college TV station

• Daily 30 minute news program broadcasted statewide

• Did own graphics and forecasting• Became more comfortable speaking in front

of people and accountability for forecasts

Training and Experience

• Storm Chasing• Saw several tornadoes and went out about a

dozen times the 4 years at OU• Really see equations and classroom material

at work• Makes studying easier and learn a lot

Training and Experience

• Work for Program for Climate, Ecosystem, and Fire Applications (CEFA)

• Researching climate indices and fire relationships

• Implementing FORTRAN, GIS, and Statistica to accomplish this task

Why DRI?

• Wanted somewhere with fire, climate, and complex terrain emphasis

• Did own research and aided by mentors back at OU

• Found Dr. Tim Brown and asked my mentors about him and the program

Dr. Tim Brown

• Ph.D., Climatology, University of Colorado, BoulderM.S., Climatology, University of Colorado, BoulderB.S., Astronomy-Physics, University of Illinois (Sangamon State) Springfield, IL

• Director of Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) and CEFA

• Research in applied climate and meteorology

Research Topic

• Not confirmed but the scope is narrowing• Will involve climate and fires• One possible topic that has been discussed:

Investigating dry lightning events and fire starts with some climatology involved

• Investigating dry lightning event in N. California June 20-21

• Be funded by grants obtained by CEFA

CEFA Funding Agencies• Bureau of Land Management• U.S. Forest Service• National Park Service• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service• California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection• New York State Department of Environmental Conservation• New Hampshire Division of Forests and Lands• North Carolina Division of Forest Resources• California Air Resources Board• San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District• Department of Defense• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration• Joint Fire Sciences Program• Australia’s Bushfire CRC• Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment• Aldo Leopold Institute• Aerospace Corporation

Why Investigate?• Costs: ~$500 million,

80,000+fires burning 3.5 million acres

• Loss of life and property• Better prediction and

information can lead to more efficient and productive fire management

Research Topic

• High based convection is the primary source for dry lightning events

• Innocuous or less than strong/severe data can lead to these events which can be devastating

• Traditional thunderstorm indices not as effective in high based convection

Blowup Video

• http://www.meted.ucar.edu/fire/s591/firesci/navmenu.htm

Lightning & Wildfires

• Lightning Bust- This term denotes a lightning outbreak that is potent enough to produce numerous fire starts

• Dry Lightning- T-storm that produces rain amounts less than 0.1 in (2.5 mm). Sfc RH= 12-20%. Lightning ignition can be very efficient if surface fuels are sufficiently dry

• Wet/Dry Lightning- Precipitation amounts range between 0.1-0.2 in. (2.5-5 mm) beneath the main rain core and less than 0.1 in. outside the core. Sfc RH= 20-29%. Lightning ignition is most efficient in the peripheral areas

Research Topic

• Some offices use modified indices• A researched and practical index for high

based thunderstorms/dry lightning events would help

• Possible product of my research topic

Past, Present, and Future Research

• Steven J. McKay, Miriam L. Rorig and Sue A. Ferguson, US Forest Service

• Paul Werth, National Interagency Fire Center• Gregory J. Tripoli and William R. Cotton,

Colorado State University

“Characteristics of Lightning and Wildland Fire Ignition in the Pacific

Northwest”• Dewpoint depression at 85 kPa and

temperature difference between 85 and 50 kPa was able to classify correctly between 56% and 80% of the convective days as dry or wet

• Distinctly different synoptic patterns for ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ convection days

“The 2000 Fire Season: Lightning-Caused Fires”

• Mean 85-kPa dewpoint depression at Spokane from 1 May through 20 September was 17.7°C on days when lightning-caused fires occurred and was 12.3°C on days with no lightning-caused fires.

• Mean temperature difference between 85 and 50 kPa was 31.3°C on lightning-fire days, as compared with 28.9°C on non-lightning-fire days.

• High instability and high dewpoint depression corresponded better with lightning-caused fires than total lightning

“Model-Generated Predictions of Dry Thunderstorm Potential”

• Based on these upper-air variables, an algorithm was developed to estimate the potential of dry lightning

• Predictions generated from real time forecasts from MM5 during summers of 2004 and 2005 for western US

• 240 lightning-caused fires: 40% occurred where the probability of dry lightning was predicted to be equal to or greater than 90% and 58% occurred where the probability was 75% or greater

Gregory J. Tripoli and William R. Cotton, Colorado State University

• Several papers on mountain circulations• Including diurnal wind structure, mountain-

plain circulation, and terrain induced/aided convection

• Good background on complex terrain thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics

Unique Research?

• Relationship between dry lightning, climate, and fires still a very open topic/subject

• Some sort of dry lightning, fire, and climate relationship or dry thunderstorm index would be helpful and unique

Post Graduate Plans

• 2 Paths: Operational Forecasting (emphasis in Fire Weather) and Broadcast Meteorology

• Operational Forecasting is my first choice and I think it would be the wisest and most fulfilling long term choice

Operational Forecasting (NWS)

• NWS and Predictive Services would be ideal• NWS offers a wide range of forecasting but

one can still specialize to some extent• IMET- Incident Meteorologist• IMETs are NWS forecasters specially trained to

work with Incident Management Teams during severe wildfire outbreaks or other disasters requiring onsite weather support

Predictive Services

• Predictive Services deals with every aspect of fire prediction

• Predictive Services located at NICC and GACCs across the country

• Meteorologists analyze a variety of weather products and services to provide briefings and outlooks for current and forecasted conditions, and in some cases provide spot weather and smoke forecasts.

• Work with fire managers to assess fire danger

Broadcast Meteorology

• PROS• Enjoyed doing it• Reach a big audience• Can get paid well • CONS• At the mercy of the public/producer/director• Odd hours, lots of moving• Not all about meteorology

Preparation

• Very goal oriented, work best this way• Learning new tools (FORTRAN, GIS, Statistica,

etc.)• Work hard and do a good job on work projects• Track, experience weather every day, ask

questions• Read journal articles on topics pertaining to

my research topic or that peak my curiosity

Preparation

• Will be in Grand Junction, CO working for Bureau of Land Management

• Real life experience for fire weather• COMET modules• Meeting and talking to people in my field

Missing Elements

• Tough with budget crisis• More advanced classes in forecasting

(dynamics, synoptic, mesoscale)• More support for post grad job search• Some sort of orientation or class that helps

with job placement

References

• National Weather Service (NWS)• National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)• National Incident Information Center (NIIC)• National Weather Center (NWC)• University Corporation for Atmospheric

Research (UCAR)• American Meteorological Society (AMS)