A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE

Ping Wan

The Tenth Nuclear Utility Meteorological Data Users Group MeetingJune 2005

2

Concerns in Development of Nuclear Power

High front-end project development and plant capital costs

Perceived adverse safety, environmental and health effects – lack of public acceptance and stake-holder support

Potential security risks stemming from proliferation and potential terrorist attack

Long-term management of nuclear wastes

Securing financing for project to be built in developing country

3

Recent Nuclear Power Industry Movement

Nuclear Technology Advances Capable of:

– Enhanced safety features : passive safety features

– Reducing severe accident possibility : multiple safety systems, backup, designed to accommodate human error

– Producing less radioactive waste releases

Promotion in Innovative and Proliferation-resistant Nuclear Technologies

Strengthening Nuclear Safety Worldwide : building a global nuclear safety culture through international collaboration

Nuclear Regulatory Reform in the United States

4

U.S. Nuclear Energy

Quick facts

- 103 nuclear plants

- 20% of the nation’s electricity

- 90.7% capacity factor

- No new contracts since 1975

- No new plants since 1995

- >23,000 MWe of new capacity since 1990

5

U.S. Nuclear Drivers

Safe

Proven nuclear plant performance

Affordable

Energy security/energy independence

Emission free

Energy demand

6

U.S. Energy Demand

1980 19901970 2015 2025

Commercial Use

Residential Use

Source: U.S. Department of Energy

3,839BkWh

2003

2003

Industrial Use

5,787BkWh

2005

50 Percent More Electricity Needed by 2025

7

Formula for New Plant Deployment

Energy Policy

Proven Technology

Financials

Regulatory Certainty

Spent Fuel Management

Infrastructure

Public and Bipartisan Support

8

U.S./DOE - Nuclear Power 2010

Call for building new nuclear power plants by 2010.

Support engineering of advanced designs.

Validate regulatory process.

Develop concepts to mitigate financing risks.

Cost share industry/government.

9

Proven Technology

Approved

- ABWR

- AP 600

- AP 1000

- System 80+

Certification Process

- ESBWR

- ACR 1000

- EPR (in near future)

10

New Nuclear Reactor Designs

PBMR Pty. Ltd.

Pebble Bed Modular Reactor

Innovative fuel design

Gas cooled

On-line refueling

~120 MWe per module

General Atomic

GT-MHR

Gas cooled

Underground construction

Integral turbine-generatorand compressor

~286 MWe per module

Westinghouse

IRIS

Single integral pressure vessel

Accident scenarios engineered out of design

Passive safety systems

~335 MWe per unit

General Electric

ABWR

NRC-certified design

Two units operating in Japan; two under construction in Taiwan

Improved safety systems

~1350 MWe per unit

Westinghouse

AP600/1000

AP600 design is NRC certified

AP1000 (1117 MWe)under NRC review

Passive safety systems, simplified design, modular construction

11

Economic Competitiveness of Nuclear Power

Energy Efficiency

Plant Reliability

Global Warming Potential

Air Pollutant Emissions

Acid Runoff

Deforestation

Energy security

Extremely efficiency

Compare well with others

No greenhouse gases

Insignificant

None

None

Increased fuel diversification

12

FinancialCertainty

New Nuclear Power Plant Cost Comparison to Coal and Gas (capital and O/M cost)

Note: Under a greenhouse gas reduction policy, the capital cost of new fossil-fuel plants would increase significantly, according to the University of Chicago study. Coal-fired plants would cost $83 to $91 per megawatt-hour (MWh) and gas-fired plants would cost $58 to $68 per MWh.

$47–$71 per MWhNo policyassistance

$31–$46 per MWhEngineering costs(3 plants); nopolicy assistance

$25–$45 per MWhLimited productionand investment taxcredit for nuclear

Source: University of Chicago study; MWh=megawatt-hour

$33–$41 per MWh

$33–$41 per MWh

$33–$41 per MWh

$35–$45 per MWh

$35–$45 per MWh

$35–$45 per MWh

Nuclear Coal Gas

13

Spent Fuel Management

Near-term Solutions

- Yucca Mountain

Long-term solutions

- Nonproliferation fuel

- Generation IV technology

14

U.S. Regulatory Reform

Provide Regulatory Certainty

- Early Site Approval

- Design Certification

- Combined License for Construction and Operation (COL)

15

Part 50 & 52 Licensing Process Comparison

16

Part 52 Licensing Process

Early Site Permit

Application

Staff Review

ACRS Review

Mandatory Hearing

Early SitePermit

Decision

EquivalentEnvironmental

Information

OR

Application for Design

Certification

Staff Review

ACRS Review

CertificationRulemaking/

Hearing

Decision on Design

Certification

EquivalentDesign

Information

OR

Applicationfor CombinedLicense (COL)

Staff Review

ACRSReview

Mandatory Hearing

Decision on COL

Constructionand ITAACCompletion

Finding onITAAC

Design

Siting

COL

17

Economic Benefits

Part 52 improvements in economic risk issues of nuclear power:

– Allows reduced siting risk by Early Site Permitting

– Allows siting to proceed without commitment to a single design

– Allows reduced licensing risk by use of a certified design

– Allows design certainty at the time of construction

– Provides for “step-wise” financial commitment

18

Hypothetical Deployment Schedule and Financial Commitment for New Nuclear Generation

1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

ESP

COL

100%

0%

4

~~

~~

Start

ApplicationSubmit

Application SER Issued

EIS Issued

LWA-1 ESP Issued

Year

Start

ApplicationSubmit

ApplicationSER Issued

LWA-2 Issued

COL Issued

Site EngineeringFOAK Engineering

Procurement PlanningSite Specific Engineering

COL Preparation COL Review

HearingsESP Prepare ESP Review

Hearings

SitePreparation

First Safety-Related Concrete

ConstructionITAAC

Fuel LoadIn Service

Plant DeploymentCumulative

COLEngineering

ESP6665-4/04-1

Expenditures

PlantDeployment

Engineering

19

Demonstrating the Process

Government and Industry

NuStart (Testing the

Process)

COL E S P

Energy Bill NP-2010

Certification(Cost Studies)

20

Evidence of U.S. Nuclear Revival

New Nuclear Capacity

Equivalent to 23 new 1,000 MW power plants (uprates, capacity factors and 3 new plants)

License Renewals

- Granted : 32

- In NRC Review : 16

- Renewal Intent : 25

- Not Announced : 31

Browns Ferry #1 (1,289 MWe) restart

21

Conclusions

Cost, Safety and Environmental concerns can be alleviated, in part, through technological advances.

A stable and predictable licensing process is in place.

The United States is demonstrating we are in “a Nuclear Renaissance”

Both Government and industry can work together to rebuild its nuclear future.