a medium term transport research strategy for the eec

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A medium term transport researchstrategy for the EECK. M. Gwilliam a & Roger J. Allport ba Institute for Transport Studies , University of Leeds ,Leeds, LS2 9JT, Englandb c/o Halcrow Fox and Associates , 3 Shortlands,Hammersmith, W6 8BT, EnglandPublished online: 13 Mar 2007.

To cite this article: K. M. Gwilliam & Roger J. Allport (1982) A medium term transportresearch strategy for the EEC, Transport Reviews: A Transnational Transdisciplinary Journal,2:4, 349-372, DOI: 10.1080/01441648208716506

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TRANSPORT REVIEWS, 1982, VOL. 2, No. 4, 349-372

A medium term transport research strategy for the EEC.Part 2.

Research priorities and organization†

By K. M. GWILLIAM

Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England

and

ROGER J. ALLPORT

c/o Halcrow Fox and Associates, 3 Shortlands, Hammersmith W6 8BT, England

ABSTRACTPart 1 elicited major research issues and opportunities in the transport sector

in the EEC from an examination of a range of planning scenarios. This articlerelates those issues and opportunities to the needs of the EEC transport sectorpolicy formation and derives a set of research recommendations. The respectiveroles of the EEC and other institutions in developing and meeting the researchneeds are then discussed, concluding with some institutional proposals for thestrengthening of the organization of the strategic research effort of the EEC in thetransport sector.

§1. INTRODUCTIONThis article summarizes some of the findings of a study entitled, Long Term

Options and Forecasts for Transport in Europe, commissioned by the EEC as part ofthe FAST (Forecasting and Assessment in Science and Technology) programme.

In Part I we described the limited existing role of the EEC in transport researchand explained how we have used a scenarios approach to the identification of keyissues and opportunities for a longer term and more strategic transport researcheffort by the EEC.

In §2 of this paper we relate these research issues and opportunities to theCommunity's policy areas and from this derive a list of major research recommend-ations which appears in § 2.7. In § 3 we review these recommendations in the light ofthe broad study objectives and explain the role of the EEC institutions in developingand meeting these research needs. We conclude with some institutional proposals forthe achievement of this extended research role.

This process of translating a general approach to EEC transport researchrequirements into a proposed programme is essentially a matter of judgement. Ourconclusions were based on a thorough literature review, interviews with selectedexperts in the relevant fields and feedback from the study correspondents. Inevitablythere are some areas (such as inland waterways) less well covered than others.

†Part 1, Context and Issues, appeared in Transport Reviews, 2, 305.

0144-1647/82/0204 0349 $04·00 © 1982 Taylor & Francis Ltd

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350 K. M. Gwilliam and R. J. Allport

§2. ANALYSIS LEADING TO RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

2.1. To further transport policy

2.1.1. Road transportThe two major challenges facing Community road transport are how to plan for

future traffic levels given the very high cost of new roads and the distinct possibilitythat increases in traffic may not materialize; and how to reduce vulnerability tounstable energy prices, whilst recognizing that an energy crisis may occur. We haveexamined the main components of road transport, the vehicles, how they are used,and the infrastructure.

Having discussed the matter widely we do not envisage any revolutionary changein the conventional car. Under pressure for energy efficiency, and to a lesser extentenvironmental improvement, evolutionary change is likely towards smaller, morefuel efficient and environmentally clean cars which cost more to purchase, run andmaintain. These changes raise few issues of public policy, but leave at least onequestion unanswered—are there any ways of significantly increasing the usefulnessof the car to offset the cost increase. Two opportunities appear to exist, the expansionof combined road/rail transport, where the car is carried on the train for the line haulpart of long journeys; and the increased use of the car as an office in communicationwith the outside world and with direct access to computer data banks. The first ofthese offers considerable promise, and would be particularly important in the eventof an energy crisis; it could also offer a bridgehead to overcoming the problem oflimited range for the electrically powered car. In comparison, the limited size of themarket, cost effectiveness and driver attitudes towards being in constant communi-cation with the outside world make the second option more problematic.

Turning to the truck we find less unexploited potential for improvement, as thepressures of competition already militate towards high levels of technical efficiency.Increasing labour and energy prices will continue the pressures by hauliers for largertrucks and for the Community the question of truck weights and dimensions will notgo away; indeed, this is perhaps the major issue of public policy. Many improve-ments in the efficiency of operations will be enabled by new technology and whileindividually these will be small, when we also consider its wider applications inmanufacturing, wholesale and retail industry we may expect substantial change infreight distribution networks.

New technology offers two opportunities for improving the way the main roadnetwork is used, both requiring European cooperation—by improving the infor-mation available to drivers, both before their journey ('which is the best route from Ato B' for example) and en route (how to avoid congestion, bad weather, accidents);and by automatically controlling vehicles on the trunk motorway network, increas-ing road capacity and reducing accidents.

Information could be provided in printed form prior to journeys, by means ofvideotex sets in public places (garages, libraries etc.) and en route by electronic signs,car radio or by more fully automated in vehicle systems; and the main issues appear tobe who provides what information for dissemination, and how to detect incidentsquickly and reliably. The main question-marks over the automatic guidance (byburied cables in the road) of closely following vehicles at high speeds are the costsand benefits in the light of technological advances over the last ten years (when theoriginal work demonstrated feasibility was carried out).

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Medium term transport research strategy for the EEC 351

It is clear that Europe's trunk road network at the end of the century will mainlybe today's network, and that the very high and increasing expenditure onmaintaining that network has rapidly emerged as a major issue. What is less clear iswhether this expenditure is cost-effective. It appears that because the mechanisms ofroad surface failure and the properties of different maintenance strategies areimperfectly understood, we cannot presently say with any confidence that expendi-ture is cost-effective. In view of the magnitude of the costs involved, concerns aboutthe safety of roadworks on heavily used roads, and the direct link with Communitytruck weight regulations, this is clearly an unsatisfactory situation.

2.1.2. Rail transportIn assessing the role the railways should play in Community policy we would

emphasize the importance of safeguarding options against the major uncertaintiespresented by the energy scenario, changing social attitudes towards the environmentand large unexpected changes in the flows of bulk freight.

The railways have a potentially crucial role in all three areas: as a substitute forroad transport in the case of either an energy crisis or environmental constraints onincreasing road network or airport capacity, and as the mode often most suited tocarrying large bulk flows (of coal, ores, grain, etc.) economically. The implications ofthis argument are that a basic railway network of trunk routes with adequate capacityto meet expanding demand will be essential, and that where routes are not alreadyelectrified, proposals should be examined in the light of the future energy scenarios.

There are two major opportunities facing the railways, the development andapplication of new technology, and the achievement of more effective internationalscales of operation. In principle railways, as the only guided form of transport, areideally suited to automation. For example, it is conceivable that the existence andidentification of all trains on the network could be constantly known, that computerscould be used to optimize their schedules and that instructions could be com-municated directly to trains which are driven automatically. This is not to say thattotal automation is likely to be cost effective—it is probably not—but parts of this'package' are likely to be worthwhile leading towards progressive automation. Again,new technology can increase the potential passengers' 'psychological access' to therailways by means of better information and pre-booking (for example from videotexsets in public places), simpler and automated ticket issuing and checking, and betterinformation for the passenger en route; and finally new technology can provide theoperator with increased marketing flexibility allowing him to respond quickly andeffectively to market conditions.

Some of the problems facing railways on international operations are common toother modes—for example the delays encountered at borders due to customsprocedures and the requirements for collection of statistics are also problems at someports. It is not clearwhy this happens (it appears not to be the case with air cargo forexample) but there is reason to suspect that considerable improvements areachievable. Other problems are more specific to the railways, and of these it isinadequacies in international marketing—the services offered, railway pricing policycompared to competing modes, and the quality of marketing effort, which appearsparticularly important. In addition some new products offer promise, for examplethe development of road/rail passenger services and improved forms of road/railfreight services for unitized traffics.

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These opportunities may not appear very dramatic (compared for example withthe discussion of magnetic levitation and tracked hovercraft in the era of cheapenergy and high growth), but they may be substantial nevertheless.

2.1.3. Air transportFour factors appear likely to dominate the future development of air transport:

technology, energy prices, economic growth and political factors. Of these,technology may be the least important, for while it would be rash to suggest that allthe major breakthroughs here have been made, it seems clear that the industry isfacing evolutionary technological change (a conclusion we have reached for alltransport modes). Energy prices are important to air transport both because it is amore intensive user of energy than other transport modes (fuel currently respresentsabout one third of all costs) and therefore will be under increasingly strongcompetition; and because in the event of an energy crisis, there would probably needto be drastic changes in policy, which would severely reduce air passengers andcargo. Economic growth affects the customer's ability to afford air transport arid alsothe airlines' ability to invest in new, more efficient aircraft—hence to respondquickly to technological opportunities.

Finally, the political reality is that most large airlines and the great majority ofairports are effectively government owned, and follow objectives which are oftendisparate and usually at odds with the commercial criteria of independent airlines.This conflict of objectives creates increasing problems in policy formulation of theCommunity.

We turn now to examine the implications of the wide area of uncertainty whichthese influences create for the elements which together make up the air transportsector—manufacturers, airports and air transport operators.

ManufacturersIt now seems unlikely that there will be any radical change in the air transport

vehicle which will revolutionize the sector. The major option much discussed adecade ago was VTOL (vertical take off and landing aircraft operating between citycentres) which offered a substantial improvement in accessibility to air transport, butthe economic reasons for this form of operation not being pursued at that time areeven more persuasive today. The one option currently requiring evaluation is theairship, a technology more or less discarded after the Hindenburg disaster of 1937but now once again in production and showing some promise for shorter-distance .passenger and for freight applications.

Thus the world air fleet at the turn of the century will contain many of the aircraftflying today together with those just entering service, and perhaps only one or twonew aircraft types (a stretched Jumbo possibly) on high density long haul routes.Many of the craft will be the new generation of fuel efficient, noise-certificated, quietjets designed to fly at mach 0-7-0-8, and designed to be very flexible as regards theproportions of passenger and freight payload carried.

AirportsThe 1970s have witnessed an increasing tendency for airports to be constituted as

semi-autonomous public bodies, often with commercial objectives. During thisdecade, the problem of uncertainty facing air transport as a whole has focussed in

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particular on airports—in many Community countries the difficulties of expandingairport capacity have become intractable, and necessarily attention has focussed onincreasing the capacity of existing terminals (now generally considered to be thebottlenecks at airports) and runways. At the same time there have been pressures toincrease airport revenues and reduce costs. V

The main opportunities lie in the progressive automation of the process of ticketpurchase, passenger and baggage check-in and baggage reclaim, changing theorganization of space within terminals, (which may increase airport capacity) andreducing staff numbers and hence costs. The technology to achieve these objectivesis now becoming available and is expected to be applied extensively over the comingdecade.

The provision of air servicesThe future of air travel within Europe is dominated by the conflicting

requirements of the consumer and some airlines for low price services and those ofthe business traveller to maintain as wide a network of services as possible, andsufficient spare capacity to ensure availability at short notice. The latter objective hastraditionally been satisfied largely at the expense of the former by internal cross-subsidy with the network operated by state airlines, implemented through amonopoly or restricted franchise procedure.

The potential to reduce fares is increasingly being demonstrated by thedevelopment of low cost 'no frills' service by a new breed of private sector airlines,and by more extensive use of price discrimination, particularly on routes in and tothe U.S.A. Within Europe there appears no likelihood of a compromise acceptable toboth groups being achieved, and the only factor which may significantly change thestatus quo is a ruling by the European Court of Justice expected in 1982, on whetherprice agreements between governments are in practice agreements between com-panies (their state airlines) and thus illegal under EEC rules. This would open thedoor to progressive deregulation, although probably not the massive deregulationexperienced in the USA. There is much uncertainty about the impact of suchpolicies on the passenger, the airlines and national and Community interests, and inthe event of such a ruling the Commission clearly wishes to explore and encourageoutcomes rather less at the extremes of the range of possibility than the traditionalsystem has generated.

Apart from scheduled airlines, we have considered the possibility that 'generalaviation' may pose problems or offer opportunities to the Community. There seemto us to be good reasons why general aviation will not develop in Europe to the extentthat it has in the U.S.A. Nevertheless changes in the international organization ofcommerce and industry suggest that this could become a growth sector withimplications for runway and airspace capacity, scheduled operations and theenvironment, and that a Community policy towards general aviation should addressthese issues.

2.2. To further energy policyFaced with an uncertain energy outlook, action appears necessary in three main

fields—conservation to further increase the energy efficiency of existing transportfuels and technologies (mainly oil-based fuels and the internal combustion engine);the development of substitute fuels and technologies; and planning for thepossibility of an energy crisis.

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2.2.1. ConservationGovernments, by their fiscal policy, determine the prices (as opposed to costs) of

different energy sources. Clearly these price signals are being effective in reducingunit energy consumption and it is expected that energy efficiency will increase overthe next twenty years by about 50% and 15% for new cars and trucks respectively,and by 50% for air transport, averaged over the fleet. These changes are largelyprivate reactions to market forces. The private sector has thus concentrated itsresearch resources almost exclusively on this front, but public policy has also animportant part to play in influencing the public's behaviour towards rationaldecisions, better driving behaviour etc., and in devising policies to influence thecompetitive position of different modes, taking account of their energy efficiency.

2.2.2. Substitute fuels and technologiesAs we have shown in our scenario analysis there are sufficient uncertainties to fear

that the private inducements may not be adequate to ensure a smooth transition fromthe use of natural to that of synthesized oil fuels. The best insurance againstbreakdown is likely to be the use of electricity for car and light truck propulsion, apower source which can be generated from many primary energy sources. The majorrequirement for the realization of this is major advance in battery technology, but, adecade after such breakthroughs were first imminently expected, the only batteryreasonably certain to provide a significant step forward is the advanced, lighterversion of the lead acid battery, which offers prospects of a 150 kilometre range.Heavy trucks and air transport seem likely to remain heavily dependent on liquidoil/coal based fuels for the forseeable future.

. For many uses these range and capacity limits are acceptable, and it is thecomparative cost of conventional and electric vehicle propulsion which is important.Electric vehicles have to date been more expensive to buy, and cheaper to run, but inoverall costs invariably more expensive than their conventional equivalent (althoughdifferential fuel taxes have not always made this apparent). But for most longdistance transport, such limitations on range between recharging or batteryexchange would be severe and here various options exist, including the use of thetrain for the line-haul part of journeys to increase the effective vehicle range.

While individual EEC countries have very different energy resources, which willnecessarily result in different national strategies, there are many common interestsand in some cases common requirements for European action. Perhaps the mostobvious is the need for road transport fuel and technology compatibility, for examplein the context of electric vehicles or liquid substitute fuels, where the absence of suchcross-frontier harmonization would threaten the international free movement of carsand trucks.

2.2.3. Planning for the eventuality of energy crisisThe gradual adaptation to changed energy sources and prices depends on a wide

range of private and public decisions. Many of these are of a long gestation periodand require considerable foresight. If, either because of an interim political crisis inthe oil supplying countries, or because of some inherent myopia of the private orpublic sector, the rate of adaptation to new sources is not well matched to the declineof old sources, then rather sharp and destabilizing changes in price, activity levelsand structure could occur. This underlines the importance of issues we have raised

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before—adequate capacity on the railways, the potential of telecommunications tosubstitute for physical transport and the priorities for scarce oil resources. What isneeded is an overall coherent policy linking these different factors.

2.3. To further regional policyWhilst we recognize that the regional disparities of the Community are of major

concern and that action in the transport sector can contribute to solutions, we havefound little evidence to suggest that transport policy is crucial in the area. The role ofresearch is therefore also elusive.

2.4. To further social policyThe main ways that action in the transport sector can advance Community social

policy appear to be by improving working conditions in the transport industry andpossibly by improving the possibilities of travel for disadvantaged groups.

In the transport industry, the main opportunity for improvement concerns theCommunity drivers' hours legislation. Recognizing that long distance truck drivingis a very onerous task, regulations governing drivers' hours necessarily need toreconcile two conflicting objectives: drivers' fatigue and safety (where it is difficult toobtain evidence of the linkage between hours legislation and accident rates) andproductivity (where it is much easier to demonstrate the benefits of long hours). Itappears that the existing EEC legislation is both deficient in principle, and largelyignored in practice. Thus many drivers are regularly working excessive hours,inevitably under fatigue which affects safety. However the economic effects—forexample, the extent of harmonization between states and the implications forcompeting transport modes—are unknown.

2.5. To further environmental policyMost of the scenarios anticipate increasing wealth within member states, and in

the past this has gone in hand with increases in transport on the one hand, andincreasing perceptions of the problems caused by transport on the other. Thisprospect of increasing conflict is expected to continue. Whether such conflicts resultin further regulation should depend on an assessment of the costs they may entail (forexample increased energy consumption) as well as the benefits, an approach whichthe Community is moving towards in the fields of road traffic noise and air pollution.For such assessments to be plausible, it is necessary to understand better the natureof environmental disturbance. Given this better understanding of how peopleperceive and value improvements, it appears likely that the main developments arelikely to be in further regulation of road transport noise, emissions (affecting health,causing annoyance, harming amenity, and adversely affecting buildings and crops)and safety, focussing on the heavy truck, together with monitoring how theintroduction of Environmental Impact Analysis into Community planning pro-cedures can provide a more positive aspect to transport infrastructure planning.

In air transport, the latest generation of noise-certificated new technology jetswill bring substantial improvements in noise emissions. It may be that there isconsiderable growth in general aviation and it is to this area that environmentalpolicy should be directed. In all cases, however, it is important that the costs, as well

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as the benefits, of different environmental standards should be fully appreciated andresearch in this area seems necessary.

2.6. To improve methods of transport planningIf we are unable to forecast ahead, it follows that we shall be limited in evaluating

the consequences of external impacts on the transport sector, or of possibleopportunities within the sector. Forecasting is thus a prerequisite to longer termaction and without it problems will not be foreseen and opportunities will not bedeveloped.

It appears that it is past failures in this important area which have been partlyresponsible for the disenchantment with longer term planning per se. We havesought to identify why this has occurred and to suggest how progress can be made,recognizing that in some respects the future will be qualitatively different from thepast.

We have examined the question in two stages, firstly focussing on the planningprocess as a whole (that is all the activities from setting objectives and data collectionthrough to evaluation producing outputs for decision-makers) and asking whatrequirements should be placed on it and what are their implications; and thenlooking in more detail at the individual activities within the planning process. Thisdistinction recognizes the close linkages between the component parts of theplanning process. For example, unless we commence by understanding how newtechnology may impact on transport, the data collected may exclude information oncommunications. It will be impossible to calibrate an appropriately specified model,transport forecasts will be in error, and the information provided to decision-makerspossibly misleading.

2.6.1. The planning processThe main requirements for the planning process are that it should deal

realistically with future uncertainty; it should provide answers to questions beingposed by decision-makers, at the time they are required; it should provide thedecision-maker with that information necessary for him to make a rational decision;and it should be cost effective.

The major defect of the planning process hitherto has been its failure to allow forthe very considerable uncertainty which confronts us. This has happened partlybecause of a lack of understanding of the extent of uncertainty and partly becausethere has been confusion of strategic and shorter term, more detailed considerations.Progress will come by the explicit recognition of the main components of uncertainty(probably based on the form of scenario analysis we have used) and the developmentof strategic planning procedures which are fast and cheap to use.

A corollary to this way forward is that criteria used for evaluating transportoptions should change and that more emphasis should be given to the quality ofinformation given to decision-makers. Thus instead of seeking to optimize economicreturns, subject to environmental and other constraints, based on a single, centralview of the future and a few sensitivity analyses (the conventional approach, widelyused today), we should be seeking to devise strategies which are flexible and robustacross the range of alternative futures and give the decision-maker the opportunity tobase his decision on an understanding of the uncertainty involved. Thus he can

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, decide whether to implement a high risk/high returns strategy or one which has alower risk but lower returns.

In considering strategic planning we have identified several specific defects inits component parts. The most important of these defects we now describe.

(i) DataThe current level of understanding of the determinants of long distance transport

is very deficient, particularly in the case of freight transport. It is perhaps fortunatethat a small number of commodities (such as coal, ores/steels, minerals, foods andfinished products) account for a high proportion of the total for most modes and mostcountries. For example, more than half of all British rail freight is either coal/coke oriron ore/steel products, controlled by two public bodies each with their statistics andstrategic planning departments. Such concentrated expert knowledge of industrialneeds and trends is a very promising basis for forecasting, which could be moreeffectively used.

More generally, there are two approaches to increasing understanding whichoffer promise, namely the use of time series information and the use of attitudinalinformation. Especially where changes in the ambient circumstances are expected tobe very large, the examination of the major structural changes that have taken placeover time and of the perceived determinants and constraints on travel and transportpatterns may well be more informative than the more conventional procedure ofextrapolation from static analysis of cross-section data.

(ii) ScenariosThe persuit of 'robustness' in planning necessitates a move away from the narrow

concentration on single, central estimates. It seems essential that a suitable set ofscenarios is developed, and in Community terms some responsibility for this by nomeans straightforward task would appear to fall naturally to the Commission,ensuring relevancy and co-ordination of all strategic planning carried out under theCommunity's auspices.

(iii) AnalysisThe conventional approach to long distance transport modelling has been

developed from the urban models of the 1960s and 70s and involves a recursivestructure with a number of sub-models, each based on simplistic behaviouralassumptions. Cumulation of unexamined errors in the successive stages of thisprocess means that the accuracy of the final forecasts is unknown.

Against this background, several promising new developments are emerging.

Firstly, new forms of model have been formulated offering improvements inanalysis. What is now needed is the opportunity to gain experience inunderstanding which applications different classes of model are suited to.

Secondly, there has been a move towards applying more rigorous statisticaltesting in transport planning. An understanding of the nature of errors (in data,model specification, or scenario variables) and their magnitude will allow theaccuracy of the outputs to be better understood, and will make it clearer whereeffort to improve forecasting reliability is likely to be most productive.

Thirdly, there has been a recognition that if models are to serve therequirements of the strategic planning process as we have described then, theymust be relatively fast and cheap to apply.

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Table 1. Priorities for the strategic transport research by the community

Subject of researchPriority forResearch

HighHighHighHighMod/HighMod/High

HighHighModerateModerateMod/High

HighHighHighMod/HighModerate

Priority forEEC involvement

HighHighHighHighHighMod/High

HighHighModerateModerateLow

HighLowLowModerateLow

(4)d/4)(4)(1/3/4)(1/4)(1/4)

(1)(3/4)(3/4)(3/4)(3)

(1/4)(3)(3)(3)(3)

Overallpriority

#

####

*

*

#

Resourceimplications

LowLowLowLow/ModLowLow/Mod

Low/ModLow/ModLowLow/ModMod/High

Low/ModMod/HighLow/ModLow/ModModerate

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(A) To further transport policy(Al) General {affecting several or all modes)Detente with Eastern Europe*Impedance to international transport*Information systems for transportImpact of new technology on transport demandMotorail servicesFreight distribution systems(A2) Road TransportTruck weights and dimensionsInformation systems for driversControlling congestion on trunk roadsAutomated guidance of vehiclesRoad maintenance(A3) Rail transportPlan for flexibility in network capacityNew technology and train controlNew technology and the passenger interfaceCost effectiveness of safety standardsTrack maintenance

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3

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(A4) Air transportNew technology and airportsDeregulation (Continuation of existing research)Policy for general aviationAirship feasibility

(B) To further energy policyElectric vehiclesAircraft energy efficiencyPlanning for an energy crisis

(C) To further regional policy(No recommendations)

(D) To further social policyDrivers hours regulationsImpact of Eastern European freight operatorsLong distance transport and the disadvantaged

(E) To further environmental policyPerception of environmental problems

(F) The method of transport planningCommodity flow studiesPassenger demand studiesSet up panelsReview the need for statisticsDefine and monitor scenariosAccuracy requirements and characteristicsCase studies for treatment of uncertaintyDevelopment of efficient strategic models

HighHighLow/ModLow/Mod

HighHighHigh

HighN/AN/A

Moderate

HighMod/HighModerateHighHighModerateHighHigh

HighHighHighLow/Mod

HighN/AHigh

HighHighModerate

Low/Mod

HighHighModerateHighHighLow/ModHighMod/High

(3/4)(1)(1)(2/4)

(3/4)(2/3)(1/4)

(1)(1)(4)

(3)

(1/4)d/4)(4)(1)(1)(3)(1/3)d/3)

* Low/Mod* Low

LowModerate

* Mod/HighN/A

* Low/Mod

* ModerateN/AN/A

Low/Mod

* Low/Mod* Low/Mod

Low* Low* Low/Mod

Low/Mod* Low/Mod* Low/Mod

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Table 2. The relationship between the objectives of research and the research recommendations.

Reason for recommendations for researchIntroduce flexibility into Confront the challenge of Further Community policy 3

Subject for research

the new exchangetransport planning energy tech- with E. trans- en- environ-systems procedures scenario nology Europe port ergy regional social mental Other

Detente with Eastern EuropeImpedance to international transportInformation systems for transportImpact of new technology on transport demandMotorail servicesFreight distribution systemsTruck weights and dimensionsInformation systems for driversControlling congestion on trunk roadsAutomated guidance of vehiclesRoad maintenancePlan for flexibility in rail networkNew technology and train controlNew technology and the passenger interface

(*)

(*)#

#(*)

(*)#

(*)

(*)(*)(*)

(*)(*)

#(*)#

#

#

•oo

*(*)(*)

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Cost effectiveness of railway safety standards #Railway track maintenance #New technology and airports * (*) *Air transport deregulation #Policy for general aviation #Airship feasibility #Electric vehicles * * # . #Aircraft energy efficiency * # ^Planning for an energy crisis * * # # g_Drivers' hours regulations # §'Impact of Eastern European freight operators * * «.Long distance transport and the disadvantaged (#) * ^Perception of environmental problems * ^Commodity flow studies # 5fPassenger demand studies * aSet up panels # "^Review the need for transport statistics * «.Define and monitor scenarios * (*) ( # ) ( * ) # # * # # JJAccuracy requirements and characteristics * * gCase studies for treatment of uncertainty * * ^Development of efficient strategy models * # S-

* main reason.(*) subsidiary reason.

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Finally, there has been recognition that the complexity and amount ofinformation resulting from the planning process poses considerable problemsof assimilation and interpretation for the decision-makers. This is partly amatter of display techniques. There is a clear requirement for techniques ofanalysis which are more responsive to the decision-makers' requirements.

2.7. The research recommendationsIt has been our objective to develop recommendations under each of the policy

areas discussed, demonstrating how research within the transport sector cancontribute to wider policy objectives and linking our recommendations naturally tothe Community institutions; table 1 is therefore structured in this way.

Table 1, after listing each research issue, comprises four main columns. The firstidentifies our view of the technical importance of public sector (but not necessarilyEEC) research being undertaken, while column 2 identifies the priority which weconsider the EEC should attach to such research (the codes 1-4 which explain whythe EEC could be involved are described in § 3.3); and where the issue is both of hightechnical priority and of high priority to the EEC it is asterisked (in column). Notsurprisingly, different issues imply very different resource commitments—in somecases all that is needed is coordination of national efforts, in others a specific study isneeded, while in others a major programme of research over several years is required;and we have indicated in column 4 the level of activity which we considerappropriate. A more detailed description of the research recommendations iscontained in the Annex.

§3. T H E ORGANIZATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF STRATEGIC RESEARCH

3.1. Compatibility of recommendations with the required emphasis of researchIn § 2, we examined the requirements of a Community research programme. In

summary, our conclusions were that it should:

seek to deal with uncertainty by introducing flexibility into the transportsystem and develop transport planning methods which deal sensibly with theexistence of uncertainty;confront the challenge posed by rising energy prices and new technology, andincreasing exchanges with Eastern Europe; and recognize that severe problemsface Community transport, energy and regional policies, with less severe butstill important problems facing social and environmental policies.

In table 4, we contrast the results of the study approach, the recommendations forresearch, with these objectives showing the large extent to which it has beenpracticable to operationalize them.

3.2. The nature of the recommendationsThe dominant feature of the recommendations, which emerged during the study

rather than being obvious from the outset, was the emphasis on policy research andon research concerning how existing hardware should be applied, rather than ondeveloping new hardware itself. A decade ago we may have expected therecommendations to focus on developing new prototype high speed land or airtransport systems, and indeed much was undertaken in these fields. Nowhere is thiscontrast more obvious than in the application of new technology to transport markets

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and transport systems, where the critical factors are public access to the technologyand the economic feasibility of the application, rather than developing new forms oftransport hardware. An important implication of this emphasis in the recommend-ations is that by and large, high commitments of research resources are not requiredto put the recommendations into effect. Indeed as table 1 shows clearly, those areaswhere we conclude EEC research has a high overall priority have, with only oneexception (electric vehicles) a low or mainly low/moderate resource requirement.

3.3. The future role of the EEC in transport researchWhile there are no cut and dried thresholds which separate the role of the

Commission from that of other national and supranational bodies in the field ofresearch, there appears to be a prima facie case for their involvement in four cases,which are referred to (in brackets) in table 1.

(1) Where research is essential to Community transport or other sectoralpolicies.

(2) Where there are such economies of scale in research that the optimal scale ofeffort is beyond the capability of individual status, especially where researchrisk is high.

(3) Where co-ordination to exchange information and avoid duplication in non-commericai research would allow a wider range of issues to be confronted tomutual advantage.

(4) Where the issues themselves are of such a kind that the benefits would accruewidely throughout the Community, and where recognition of these benefitswould result in the research being accorded a higher priority at theCommunity level than at the national level.

In transport there are very few, if any, research issues which fall within category 2and the other categories subdivide into those where the EEC must be involved(category 1), and those where it may be (categories 3 and 4). Reference to table 1shows that relatively few issues unambiguously require EEC involvement and are ofhigh overall priority. These are:

truck transport deregulations;air transport deregulations;drivers' hours regulations;review the need for transport statistics;define and monitor a set of scenarios.

Most of the remaining high priority issues could justify EEC involvement on acombination of categories 1/3 or 1/4, with fewer justified solely in terms of one orboth categories 3 and 4. This suggests that the EEC may have a significant role to playin much of this research. Whether it does and should become so involved depends inno small part on the organization of research which we discuss subsequently—on theeffectivenesss of research links between member states and the EEC, and on the roleof bodies such as OECD, UN-ECE, ECMT and so on.

3.4. The organization of strategic research in transport in the EEC CommissionWe commenced this paper by recognizing (in §1.2) that at present, there is

neither budget, nor formal procedure, nor institutional organization for a con-centrated Community level strategic research effort in transport. Despite this, our

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study has identified substantial areas where such an effort would be justified. It istherefore a matter of great concern to us that, at the very least, the small initiativetaken in the present study should not be wasted because of the absence of anyprocedure of institution for pursuing it further.

Currently there appear to be three levels at which the organization of research isinadequate:

(i) There appears to be no adequate procedure for relating the research effortsof the member states to the research needs and efforts of other member statesor of the Community;

(ii) Within the EEC Commission, there appears to be little relationship betweenthe research requirements and activities of related Directorates, and littleco-ordinated action to set priorities and set up inter-Directorate program-mes of research.

(iii) Within the Transport Directorate, there is no explicit researchresponsibility.

Two important research needs appear to be neglected as a consequenceof these institutional deficiencies:

(a) The special mutuality of interest between member states in improving theefficiency of their national research efforts by exchange of information andco-ordination is not well provided for.

(b) The areas of research of peculiar interest at the Community level, wherework may have a higher priority than within any national programme, mayfind no adequate sponsorship.

In seeking proposals to overcome these deficiencies, we are aware of severalpractical impediments to progress. Firstly, there are areas within which freecompetition in research, as in production, may be not only consistent with theunderlying philosophy of the EEC but also the most conducive framework forresearch initiatives. Second, where the requirement is for co-ordination, that co-ordination may not be most effectively limited to, or organized by, EEC members assuch. There is no point in taking any EEC action which narrows rather thanbroadens the existing range of co-ordination. Thirdly, it is necessary to ensure acontinuing relationship between the policy interests of the Community and theorganization of research. That does not mean, however, that the research interestshould be restricted to areas where current short term policy initiatives require it.Finally, we must recognize that the institutions of the EEC are already complex andthat the development of new institutions or relationships is bound to be a slow,cautious and incremental process. It would be inconsistent with the view that wehave taken of the development of the Community and its policies to recommend anew, major, supervening research responsibility.

These considerations lead us to propose a limited reorganization within theTransport Directorate DG VII, which might be implemented initially without anychange in relationships outside that Directorate. Given successful and proveddevelopment of the internal research strategy, then external relationships andinstitutions would be progressively affected.

We therefore suggest that a specific responsibility be created within DG VII forlong term and strategic transport research .There would clearly have to be very closeinternal relationships with the other Divisions on the substance of the programmes,

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and some joint responsibility or joint appointment arrangement might beappropriate.

We would envisage that it would be the task of this Division:

(a) To prepare and maintain long term, strategic forecasts of supply and demandfor transport in the EEC.

(b) To become aware of the activities of, and liaise with other researchinstitutions relevant to the Community.

(c) To co-ordinate and develop the research requirements of all Divisionswithin DG VII for policy formulation;

(d) To develop an understanding, and ultimately to make co-ordinatinginitiatives in the areas of research as may be identified as requiring such aneffort. Direct EEC involvement in such areas is possible, but may not benecessary if adequate links exist between countries or through the othersupranational organizations.

Our immediate recommendation, therefore, is that the Commission shouldconsider the creation of a specific responsibility for strategic research and develop-ment within DG VII which would consult the member states on the kinds of issuesraised in our report and would itself progress the most important areas identified.This would clearly change the scope and emphasis of the DG VII research activity,but would not involve any unnecessary separation of the strategic research andstrategic policy responsibilities. We would hope that the study of which this paper isa summary might prove a useful first step towards the development of a moreeffective EEC research activity in transport, and hence an improved basis for thelonger term development of the EEC common transport policy.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe were assisted during the Study from the Institute for Transport Studies, by

Dr. C. A. Nash in the field of railway operations and Dr. A. D. Pearman, Dr. H. C.W. L.Williams and H. F. Gunnin the field of transport analytic methods. We wouldalso gratefully acknowledge the constructive involvement of the five studycorrespondents: l

Monsieur P. Laredo Ministry of Transport, FranceProfessor J. Polak University of Amsterdam, NetherlandsDr. O. Schiotz Ministry of Transport, DenmarkMr. A. Silverleaf INTRA Co-ordinator, U.K.Dr. D. Witt University of Munich, Germany

and the officers of the European Commission, in particular

Mr. O. Hoist Directorate General XIIMr. J. H. Rees Directorate General VII

Finally the assistance of the many individuals, private and public o'rganizationsand U.K. Government officials who contributed generously in time and ideas isgratefully acknowledged.

We are grateful to the European Commission for the opportunity to publish theresults of the study. More information about the study is available from the

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Commission, notably a Summary Volume, and a Main Volume, comprising theSummary Volume and the main Technical Papers.

Needless to say we accept responsibility for any errors or omissions in the text.

ANNEX

PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONSThe recommendation are presented in groups, reflecting their objectives infurthering Community policy.

(A) transport (Al, general; A2, road; A3, rail; A4, air)(B) energy(C) regional(D) social(E) environmental, and(F) improving the methods of transport planning

(A) RECOMMENDATIONS TO FURTHER TRANSPORT POLICY

(Al) General transport policyDetente with Eastern Europe—a study should be set up in co-operation with UN-ECE. This should identify deficiencies in the transport networks within the area ofinfluence of the East-West border with a view to identifying projects for subsequentfeasibility study, and should examine how future action should be organized.Impedance to international transport—this should establish the causes of impedi-ments to international travel and trade and should include all modes. Arising from itcommon action affecting several modes may be required (customs and collection ofstatistics for example) as well as mode-specific action (international marketing inrespect of railways for example).

Information systems for transport—a study should be mounted to identify the publicrole in establishing intermodal information systems for long distance and inter-national passenger and freight transport. It should examine the mechanisms whichmay bring this about and should result in demonstration projects where appropriate.

Impact of new technology on transport demand—a programme of research should bedevised to increase understanding of the possible impacts of communicationstechnology on transport. This should focus on case studies so that behaviouralhypotheses can be tested and the basis for forecasting established. The implicationsfor the main transport modes, notably air transport, should be identified, to informfuture policy making.

Motor ail services—the feasibility of the widescale introduction of motorail services(where car occupants accompany their car on trains for the line-haul section of longjourneys) should be established under both conventional and energy scenarios. Themain requirement is market assessment and financial viability as the technologyexists.

Freight distribution systems—a research programme should establish how the futurescenario may change existing distribution networks, and what opportunities exist fordeveloping more efficient combined road/rail operations (this being an extension ofthe existing Commission initiative).

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(A 2) Road transportTruck weights and dimensions—under continuing pressures to increase weights anddimensions, a programme of research is required to inform future EEC policy—necessarily closely tied to research on road maintenance described below. Thisshould seek to identify the overall costs and benefits of change taking account ofmarket characteristics and establish whether there are any major cost thresholdswhich may preclude certain types of change.

Information systems for drivers—research should continue into ways of communicat-ing effectively with vehicle drivers en route (this is an extension of the COST 30project).

Controlling congestion on trunk roads—research should assess the costs and benefits ofalternative approaches to this problem (ramp metering, pricing policies, regulatorypolicies etc.) to inform future policy.

Automated guidance of vehicles—an up-to-date evaluation of this technology toincrease capacity, reduce accidents etc. should be carried out, particularly focussingon implementation. If appropriate, a demonstration project should be mounted.

Road maintenance—an extensive programme of empirical and basic research shouldbe established to increase understanding of the mechanisms of road failure andeffectiveness of maintenance strategies, so that (total) costs can be minimized onsome rational basis.

(A 3) Rail transportResearch should be co-ordinated with national programmes and the UIC.

Plan for flexibility in network capacity—the future may require rapid increases inrailway capacity to accommodate unexpected demands; these would be mostpressing in the event of an energy crisis. A programme of research is required

to establish, or at least make widely known, existing levels of congestion andspare capacity. These are pre-requisite to forward planning.

into the determinants of network capacity;

to make an assessment of the options which will exist for rapidly increasingcapacity;

into how the concept of 'standby capacity' can most effectively be translatedinto operational programmes, taking account of the financial and organizationalimplications.

New technology and train control—research should identify how the progressiveautomation of railway operations can be most cost effectively introduced. It shouldfocus on the economics of different stages in automation (for which the technologygenerally exists) and on managing the transition to more controlled forms ofoperation, removing the impediments to its implementation. If appropriate it shouldresult in demonstration projects.

New technology and the passenger interface—a programme of research based on thepotential of new technology to improve the interface with the passenger before thejourney, at the station and en route, is required; again this should result indemonstration projects.

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Cost effectiveness of safety standards—research should rationally examine currentstandards of construction, maintenance and operation in the light of future needs,and should recommend changes to existing practice. This is closely linked to:

Track maintenance—a programme of research should be designed to reducemaintenance costs. This requires research to improve understanding of themechanism of track deformation, and to devise better maintenance strategies.

(A 4) Air transport

New technology and airports—a programme of research is required to assess theopportunities for introducing new technology into airport functions, and theimplications of this for the capacity of existing airports, for airport costs, and forpassenger convenience.

Deregulation—we support the on-going research by the Commission, and in theevent of a ruling by the Court of Justice opening the way to further deregulation,recommend this should be extended to monitor the effects of change and informfuture policy.

Policy for general aviation—the prospects for general aviation (i.e. all non-scheduledaviation) should be examined against the future scenarios, and the need for aCommunity policy established. If necessary, research needed to formulate such apolicy should be undertaken taking account of the implications for airports,scheduled air operations and environmental disturbance.

Airship feasibility—a preliminary feasibility study should be undertaken of thepotential of airships for medium and long distance passenger and freight transport inEurope. This should assess the technical and cost characteristics of the technologyinsofar as they are known, and the market potential. If a potential is considered toexist, R and D resources may be required for prototypes and experimentaloperations.

(B) RECOMMENDATIONS TO FURTHER ENERGY POLICY

Electric vehicles—the need for a major public initiative in this field based oninternational collaboration is recognized in COST action 302 which should identifymajor R and D needs. At that stage, if not before, R and D resources will be requiredleading to demonstration projects.

Aircraft energy efficiency—we are aware that this is a very important issue wheremuch is happening in both private and public sectors. It may be that further R and Dresources could be made available and cost-effectively committed.

Planning for an energy crisis—a major research effort should confront the possibilityof an energy crisis and seek to identify the main strands of a coherent policy withinthe transport sector (although the logic is that this approach should be extended toother sectors).

(C) RECOMMENDATIONS TO FURTHER REGIONAL POLICY

No recommendations.

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(D) RECOMMENDATIONS TO FURTHER SOCIAL POLICY

Drivers hours regulations—a programme of research extending over considerabletime should be instituted to identify the links between various aspects of theseregulations, and driver compliance, levels of fatigue, proneness to accidents andoperating costs. This should involve research in the different members States andprogressively improve the basis of policy making.

Impact on employment in the transport industry of Eastern European freight operators—the need for research action should be assessed in the light of the Economic andSocial Committee's 1978 report, subsequent action and an up-to-date assessment ofthe problem.

Long distance transport and the disadvantaged—the need for research to improveunderstanding of the importance of long distance travel for those who do not owncars, and in particular the ease with which the long distance transport modes can beused by the disabled and elderly should be assessed.

(E) RECOMMENDATIONS TO FURTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY

Perception of the environmental problem—there are grounds to believe that ourunderstanding of how, and with what importance, environmental problemsassociated with transport are perceived is only partially understood. The implicationis that current legislation may be deficient and efforts to resolve the problemmisconceived .A programme of fundamental research should seek to increaseunderstanding in this important area.

(F) RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE METHODS OF TRANSPORT PLANNING

Commodity flow studies—to provide an understanding of freight demand charac-teristics and determinants now and in the future throughout the Community, Thefirst requirement is a programme of studies into selected key commodities which arecritical to the transport sector. We recommend these are carried out over a period oftime. In parallel the Commission will continue to monitor global flow levels as part oftheir market observation policy.

Passenger demand studies—a programme of research should seek to build on theCOST 33 exercise and increase considerably our understanding of the charac-teristics and determinants of long distance and international passenger demand.This should particularly focus on business travel, and should extend to manymember States.

Set up panels—consideration should be given to setting up European panels (of thegeneral public, representatives of business and the transport industry for example)who would be questioned periodically, thus giving an early indication of newinfluences and trends on the transport sector.

Review the need for statistics—many statistics are collected on behalf of theCommission (for example at borders and as part of their market observation policy).This both imposes costs and brings^benefits. Consideration should be given as towhether the right (useful) data is collected in the right (statistical) amounts and in theright (cost effective) way; also whether it is made available in the best way. A research

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study should tackle this whole complex field, and recommend improvements tocurrent practices.

Define and monitor scenarios—the Commission should define a broad set of scenariossuitable for all strategic planning carried out under its auspices, ensuring relevanceand co-ordination. From time to time these should be updated to ensure continuingrelevance.

Accuracy requirements and characteristics (of the planning process)—a programme ofresearch should be directed to relating the required accuracy of outputs necessary toinform decision-makers to the errors in data, models and scenario variables. Thiswould require examination of actual studies to identify objectives, constraints, andmethods used.

Case studies for treatment of uncertainty—a small programme of case studies shouldbe set up so that alternative approaches to the treatment of uncertainty can beassessed and developed. These should be actual studies for which suitableinformation is available.

Development of efficient strategic models—a prerequisite to adequate strategicplanning is the development of models which are faster and cheaper to operate (this isclosely related to the previous issue). Research is required to develop the mostappropriate strategic models.

FOREIGN SUMMARIES

Dans un article précédent, on avait pu voir comment la méthode de scénarios deplanification avait permis de mettre en évidence des thèmes de recherche essentiels et desproblèmes majeurs concernant les transports dans la CEE. Dans cet article-ci, ces thèmes etces problèmes sont confrontés aux exigences de la formulation des politiques de transportpour la CEE, ce qui permet de faire certaines recommandations. Après un examen des rôlesrespectifs de la CEE et d'autres institutions dans la recherche en transports, on arrive à despropositions institutionnelles visant á renforcer l'organisation de la recherche stratégique de laCEE en ce domaine.

In einem früheren Artikel wurden die Forschungsschwerpunkte und -möglichkeiten imVerkerswesen in der EG aufgrund einer Untersuchung von Planungsszenarien beleuchtet.Dieses Papier setze die Ergebnisse und Möglichkeiten in Verbindung zu den Erfordernisseneiner EG-Verkehrspolitik und leitet eine Reihe von Forschungsempfehlungen ab. Dieverantwortliche Rolle der EG und anderer Institutionen bei der Formulierung undDurchführung von Forschungsprogrammen wird dargestellt mit Empfehlungen zurinstitutionellen Straffung der Organisation der strategischen Forschung auf demVerkehrssektor innerhalb der EG.

Un trabajo anterior reveló importantes cuestiones y oportunidades de investigación en elsector transporte de la CEE, a partir del examen de una serie de escenarios de planificación.Este trabajo relaciona estas cuestiones y oportunidades con las necesidades de formulación depolíticas en el sector transporte de la CEE, ,y deriva un conjunto de recomendacionesimportantes. Luego se discute el papel que juega la CEE y otras instituciones en el desarrolloy cumplimiento de necesidades de investigación, concluyendo con ciertas proposiciones detipo institucional conducentes a reforzar la organización de los esfuerzos de investigación anivel estratégico en el sector transporte de la CEE.

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EDITORIAL SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER READING

This paper seems to be the first on the subject area, so the recommendations arenot directly relevant but provide the context for the Review.

BAYLISS, B. T., 1979, Transport in the European Communities, Journal of TransportEconomics and Policy, 13 (1), pp. 28-43.

The article provides a detailed analysis of the aims and development of transportpolicy within the European Communities since 1958. It deals with both passengerand freight transport, but the emphasis is on freight transport, where the majorpolicy issue of market entry has raised substantial divergences of opinion betweenMember States. The author argues that the main reason for the existence of theEuropean Communities is political and that failure to agree on a common transportpolicy, which most states perceive as detrimental to their own national industries, isnot regarded as damaging to the 'European ideal'. He further argues that the wayforward is through tackling individual issues rather than through a 'Grand Design'for transport.

(Author)

BLONK, W. A. G., 1979, Transport and regional policy in the EuropeanCommunities, in Transport and Regional Development, edited by W. A. G.Blonk (Farnborough: Saxon House), pp. 299-312.

This paper outlines the interface between transport policy and regionaldevelopment in the European Community. Having stated that the principalobjectives of regional policy are to achieve a better balance of development and toraise the standards of living in the less developed regions, the focus is then switchedto the transport policy instruments that are available. These include transportinfrastructure investment, financing and charging of infrastructure costs, andsupport tariffs for transport including subsidisation. The conclusions reachedsuggest that community policy should provide the framework within whichindividual member states can operate.

(D.B.)

BUTTON, K. J., 1979, Recent developments in EEC transport policy, Three BanksReview, 123, September, pp. 52-73.

Despite the comparative lack of public interest shown in the economic aspects ofthe slowly evolving transport policy, there have been important debates within theEEC on fundamental pricing and capacity issues. Coupled with these has been anincreasing concern with the role that an appropriately formulated transport policymay play in solving some of the long-term regional problems of the Community.This paper concentrates specifically on these recent debates and the actual policychanges which have accompanied them. Emphasis is placed upon the implications ofthese policies for the United Kingdom which has itself modified its own domestictransport policy since membership and, more particularly, over the past two years.The development of transport policy in the EEC prior to the enlargement of theCommunity in 1973 is outlined.

(Author)

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372 Medium term transport research strategy for the EEC

GWILLIAM, K. M., 1980, Realism and the Common Transport Policy of the EEC,Changes in the Field of Transport Studies, edited by J. B. Polak and J. B. Van derKamp (The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff), pp. 38-59.

There appears to be a wide measure of agreement that the development of acommon transport policy for the EEC has been very slow; some would go so far as toregard the present situation as one of complete stagnation. It is also clear that this hasoccurred largely as a result of incompatibilities between existing national transportpolicies and the new policies which the EEC Commission has been attempting todevelop. What is less clear is how the present deadlock can be resolved. It is toconsideration of that issue that the present paper is devoted. The sections first coverthe framework within which transport policy can be described and formulated, andthen takes the UK as an example of the approach that one (typical) nationalgovernment has adopted towards transport policy. The essential elements of EECtransport policy are examined together with an analysis of the inconsistenciesbetween the national and EEC policy levels. Finally some suggestions are made onthe means by which these inconsistencies can be resolved.

(D.B.)

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a medium term transport research strategy for the eec

Documents