a major world economic power - real estate forums€¦ · real estate to 50% ltv are 11% to 14%....
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A Major World Economic Power
BRAZIL
Quick Facts
BRAZIL
7th largest economy in the world
GDP of Brazil is US$2.22 trillion. São Paulo
accounts for 1/3 of Brazil’s total GDP.
Next largest economy in Latin America is Mexico,
which has a GDP of US$1.18 trillion.
Stable Inflation
Brazil suffered from high inflation in the 1980s
through the mid-1990s. Inflation has been stable in
the 5% to 7% range over the past decade.
Tremendous reserve
of natural resources
Growing population and
excellent demographic trends.
BRAZIL
Metrics
Brazil’s
Central Bank
Rate is 9.50%.
Loans for
Real Estate to
50% LTV are
11% to 14%.
Rents are
indexed to
inflation.
Cap rates for
institutional
quality real
estate in the
6% to 9% range
in São Paulo
and Rio.
IRRs range from
11% to 15% for
stable assets
and from
15% to 25% for
development
assets.
Brazil has serious problems with:
•Socio-economic Stratification
•Education
•Worker Productivity
•Infrastructure
•Bureaucracy
•Corruption
BRAZIL
Not all smooth sailing
If you are a foreign investor with a big bet on Brazil,
this is not something you want to see – or is it?
BRAZIL
Problems bubble to the surface
Tower Bridge Marginal Pinheiros –
São Paulo March 2013
55,079 square meters, completed in 2012
Sale Price: R$950 million
R$17,248 per m2 / US$763 per SF
Buyer: Fundo de Investimento Imobiliário FII TB Office
Seller: Tishman Speyer JV
Cap Rate: 7.60%
Fully leased, tenants include: Grupo Fleury, Banco
Toyota, TAM , and Zurich
BRAZIL
Recent Sale Transaction: Office Building
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
Galleria Shopping Campinas –
São Paulo October 2013
33,236 square meters, built in 1992
30% interest purchased
R$278.7 million (imputed 100% price)
R$8,385 per m2
US$346 per SF
Buyer: Iguatemi
Seller: Luis Roberto Coutinho
Cap Rate: 8.47%
Anchors: C&A, Le Lis Blanc, Cineflix
BRAZIL
Recent Sale Transaction: Shopping Mall
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
Industrial
Retail
Hotel
Office
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Fibra Uno MacquarieMexico
Vesta Fibra Hotel Terrafina Fibra Shop Fibra Inn
FIBRAS MARKET CAP
Market CapMX$ (inbillions)
MEXICO
In Mexico it is “FIBRA Fever”
SOURCE: THE SUPER SMART FOLKS AT BARNHART ASSET MANAGEMENT
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
15.00%
16.00%
17.00%
4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
Discount Rate
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
OAR Cap Rate
MEXICO
Recent Transactions: Retail
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
PERIOD BUYER SELLER NO. OF PROPERTIES M2 SALE PRICE MX$ M MX$ PER M2 PROFORMA CAP RATE
4Q13 Fibra Uno N/A 6 26,850 $439.50 $16,369 8.16%
4Q13 Planigrupo Kimco 4 102,193 $1,200 $11,743 n/a
3Q13 Fibra Uno MRP/Apolo 49 ~1,000,000 $23,155 - 7.60%
2Q13 Planigrupo Kimco 9 241,548 $3,350 $13,869 n/a
6 properties
- one Retail
in Merida
Coacalco & Tecamac Power Centers November 2013
134,246 square meters (combined GLA)
Sale Price: US$158.4 million, US$1,180 per m2
Buyer: Fibra Macquarie
Seller: Fondo Comercial Mexicano
Cap Rate: 8.35%, 98.7% Occupied
Financing: US$71.9 million
(Banamex)
Coacalco Power Center
• Total GLA: 76,209 m2,
99 small shops, 19 kiosks
• Anchor: Walmart; Other
large tenants: Sanborns,
Cinepolis, Suburbia,
Office Max
Tecamac Power Center
• Total GLA: 58,037 m2,
83 small shops, 14 kiosks
• Anchor: Suburbia; Other
large tenants: Walmart,
Sam’s, Cinepolis
Recent Sale Transactions: Retail
MEXICO
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
OAR Cap Rate
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
13.00%
14.00%
15.00%
16.00%
4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13
Discount Rate
Recent Sale Transactions: Industrial
MEXICO
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
PERIOD BUYER SELLER NO. OF PROPERTIES M2 SALE PRICE MX$ M MX$ PER M2 PROFORMA CAP RATE
4Q13 Fibra Uno N/A 5 1.28 $86.50 $67 8.10%
3Q13 Fibra Uno N/A 7 0.19 $10.77 $55 8.75%
3Q13 Terrafina Kimco / AI 87 11.00 $600.00 $55 8.70%
3Q13 Macquarie DCT Industrial 15 1.65 $82.70 $50 8.10%
4Q12 Fibra Uno G-30 30 19.37 $1,415.38 $73 7.00%
Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, SLP
Recent Hotel Acquisitions by Fibra Inn
Mexico Plaza Irapuato Hotel
102 Rooms – Limited Service
SALE DATE: 3Q13
MX$93 million
± US$7.2 million
US$70,588/room
CAP RATE: 10.10%
Hilton Reforma – Mexico City
458 Rooms – Full Service
SALE DATE: 4Q13
MX$1,163 million
±US$89.8 million
US$197,070/room
CAP RATE: 10.30%
MEXICO
TRANSACTION DATABASE
siila.com
• Record high of US$15.8 billion in 2012, on track to
reach a new high in 2013
• Investment in local stocks and
debt doubled to US$4.1 billion
• Significant pent up demand for most types of
commercial real estate and housing
• Strong growth
• Business friendly government
• Limited partnership
opportunities for
foreign investors
Foreign Direct Investment
COLOMBIA
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3Q13
Historical FDI US$B
• 51 shopping centers
under development in
Colombia
• Changing ownership
structure away from
fractured interests
• 56% of new projects are
hold and lease
• Parque Arauco and
Planogrupo two major
foreign players
Villa Nueva Plaza - Cali
US$41.1 million
•66,000 square meters, 3 levels
•Anchors: Superinter and Cinemark
•260 small shops, 24 restaurants, 34
large spaces, 17 kiosks and 2 anchors.
•Delivery date: November 2015
COLOMBIA
Significant Retail Development: Underway
Portal del Oriente - Cali
US$62.5 million
•2 levels
•Anchors: Exito, Flamingo and
Cine Colombia
•220 small shops, 24 restaurants,
7 banks and 3 anchors.
•Delivery date: 1Q 2015
Marcas Mall - Cali
US$88.6 million
•2 levels
•Anchor: Cine Colombia
•280 retail spaces and 1 anchors.
•Delivery date: 2Q 2015
Argentina •Strong populist movement
•Volatile political and economic environment
•High government debt lack of capital for
new development
Peru •Growing middle class and increasing
economic growth
•Political /economic uncertainty is too great
for most foreign investors
Chile •Small market with high barriers to entry
•Most real estate owned by local investors
Panama •Canal expansion to be completed in 2015.
•Increased shipping traffic will strengthen
local economy
•US dollar currency gives the country a currency
stability advantage over other markets
OTHER LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Different selloff/leasing risk
Property rights that favor the tenant
Fractured interests
Currency/sovereign risk
Construction cost/timing risk for development assets
The Risks are Different in Latin America