a case for reallocating your results...or not

March 4, 2015

A CASE FOR REALLOCATING YOUR RESULTS…

OR NOT.Tom Alison

Managing Director, Vincodo

searchmarketingexpo.comTom [email protected]#SMX #24C

A Case for Reallocating Your Results… or not.


What happens when the attribution know-it-all expert rains on your parade.

The problem with the typical multi channel attribution modeling is the way credits for conversions are distributed to different marketing channels.



The Problem: Determining Attribution to Inform Marketing & Budgeting Decisions



A little background on different ways to skin the cat

• Linear attribution models give equal credit to each marketing channel/touch point in a conversion path.

• Position based attribution models give more credit to first and last touch.

• Time decay attribution model give more credit to the touch points which occur closest in the time to conversions.

• The proportional multi touch attribution models assign values to touches in proportion to their contribution in a conversion. You have to be careful here because the model does not give weight to data points it does not have.

• Custom rules based attribution model gives weight to each of the above plus may include other factors based on knowledge of product/category experts.



But wait…there’s more:

Assist Impression: Assist impressions is the total number of times a keyword triggered impressions that were not clicked in searches preceding a conversion. In Display advertising it is generally called view-through

Impression Assisted Conversion: Impression-assisted conversions is the total number of conversions for which this keyword triggered assist impressions prior to the last click.

Impression Assisted Conversion Value: Impression-assisted conversion value is the total value of all conversions for which this keyword triggered assist impressions.

There can be multiple Assist Impressions for each conversion, but there will be only one Impression Assisted Conversion for each conversion. You can see your assists in Google, but the attribution model cannot see view-through against individuals.



So let’s look at the case (truth: I mixed and matched

data from several clients normalized to 1M leads)


The analysis carries through to sales with different conversion rates and quality by acquisition channel.

Media Channel TV Print Direct Mail

Acquisition

eMail Display Direct

Brand +

Organic

Non-Brand

Paid Search Affiliates Other Unknown Total

Impressions/Circ. 861,000,000 5,100,000 54,476,889 189,263,963 402,640,000 15,861,778 74,470,222 1,602,812,852

Clicks & Calls 430,500 10,200 817,153 1,703,376 402,640 5,096,947 2,379,267 1,117,053 23,805 36,300 191,114 12,208,355

Leads 8,610 306 367,719 102,203 20,132 152,908 142,756 167,558 22,615 1,815 13,378 1,000,000

% Total 0.9% 0.0% 36.8% 10.2% 2.0% 15.3% 14.3% 16.8% 2.3% 0.2% 1.3% 100.0%

CPL 500.00$ 333.33$ 59.26$ 37.04$ 40.00$ -$ 7.00$ 33.33$ 35.00$ 275.48$ -$ 38.67$

Leads by Acquisition Source Tracking



Acquisition


Brand +

Organic

Non-Brand



Clicks & Calls 430,500 10,200 817,153 1,703,376 402,640 5,096,947 2,379,267 1,117,053 23,805 36,300 191,114 12,208,355

Leads 8,610 306 367,719 102,203 20,132 152,908 142,756 167,558 22,615 1,815 13,378 1,000,000

% Total 0.9% 0.0% 36.8% 10.2% 2.0% 15.3% 14.3% 16.8% 2.3% 0.2% 1.3% 100.0%

CPL 500.00$ 333.33$ 59.26$ 37.04$ 40.00$ -$ 7.00$ 33.33$ 35.00$ 275.48$ -$ 38.67$

Leads by Acquisition Source Tracking

Let’s look at Search relative to other channels• Note: the 90 million search impressions are not visible to most attribution models• Display impression can have a high degree of view-through visibility to modelers• TV and Print must be guestimated by reach and frequency against target audience.


The analysis carries through to sales with different conversion rates and quality by acquisition channel.

People in market


Now let’s look at what the attribution model says





Acquisition


Brand +

Organic

Non-Brand



Clicks & Calls 430,500 10,200 817,153 1,703,376 402,640 5,096,947 2,379,267 1,117,053 23,805 36,300 191,114 12,208,355

Leads 8,610 306 367,719 102,203 20,132 152,908 142,756 167,558 22,615 1,815 13,378 1,000,000

Attributed Leads 27,791 182 494,450 82,590 46,463 1,734 126,895 128,326 19,488 13,750 58,331 1,000,000

TV 2,250 2 19,038 6,283 10 100 50 40 10 8 27,791

Print - 159 3 - 2 8 6 2 - 2 182

Direct Mail 2,300 50 300,000 69,000 5,500 56,000 40,000 20,000 1,200 400 494,450

eMail 700 20 30,000 20,700 1,650 11,000 12,000 6,000 400 120 82,590

Display 150 5 1,983 650 11,000 11,000 8,000 13,000 600 75 46,463

Direct 600 - 54 20 20 550 400 75 5 10 1,734

Organic 1,000 5 2,090 700 400 50,500 65,000 6,000 1,000 200 126,895

Paid Search 100 15 1,845 700 500 3,750 3,000 117,941 250 225 128,326

Affiliates - - 163 50 75 500 300 400 18,000 - 19,488

Other 10 5 2,510 800 100 5,500 4,000 400 50 375 13,750

Unknown 1,500 45 10,033 3,300 875 14,000 10,000 3,700 1,100 400 13,378 58,331

% Total 0.9% 0.0% 36.8% 10.2% 2.0% 15.3% 14.3% 16.8% 2.3% 0.2% 1.3% 100.0%

Attribution Model % 2.8% 0.0% 48.4% 8.6% 4.8% 0.2% 14.1% 12.3% 1.9% 1.4% 5.7% 100.0%

CPL 500.00$ 333.33$ 59.26$ 37.04$ 40.00$ -$ 7.00$ 33.33$ 35.00$ 275.48$ -$ 38.67$

Attribution CPL 155.00$ 559.24$ 43.96$ 45.96$ 16.51$ -$ 7.89$ 44.38$ 41.74$ 36.14$ -$

Leads by Acquisition Source Attribution


Let’s take a closer look• TV gets more credit as it was difficult to measure directly• Direct mail and email are now 57% of total leads; most targeted & best quality• Display leads more than double with corresponding drop in CPL• Paid Search drops by 1/3 with corresponding increase in CPL



Acquisition


Brand +

Organic

Non-Brand


Leads 8,610 306 367,719 102,203 20,132 152,908 142,756 167,558 22,615 1,815 13,378 1,000,000

Attributed Leads 27,791 182 494,450 82,590 46,463 1,734 126,895 128,326 19,488 13,750 58,331 1,000,000

% Total 0.9% 0.0% 36.8% 10.2% 2.0% 15.3% 14.3% 16.8% 2.3% 0.2% 1.3% 100.0%

Attribution Model % 2.8% 0.0% 48.4% 8.6% 4.8% 0.2% 14.1% 12.3% 1.9% 1.4% 5.7% 100.0%

CPL 500.00$ 333.33$ 59.26$ 37.04$ 40.00$ -$ 7.00$ 33.33$ 35.00$ 275.48$ -$ 38.67$

Attribution CPL 155.00$ 559.24$ 43.96$ 45.96$ 16.51$ -$ 7.89$ 44.38$ 41.74$ 36.14$ -$

Leads by Acquisition Source Attribution

Is this real or just a function of cookie stuffing


What are the implications for next year’s budget?• Scenario 1: Increase budget 20% and leads 25%• Scenario 2: Increase budget 5% and leads 17% by cutting TV and Search


Scenario 1 TV Print Direct Mail

Acquisition


Brand +

Organic

Non-Brand

Paid Search Affiliates Other Unknown Total increase

Original Budget $ 4,305,000 $102,000 $ 21,790,756 $ 3,785,279 $ 805,280 $ - $ 1,000,000 $ 5,585,267 $ 791,525 $ 500,000 $ - $ 38,665,106

Budget Change 120% 0% 120% 110% 400% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 120%

Leads 33,348.65 - 593,340.00 90,849.00 185,852.00 1,734.00 126,895.00 128,326.00 19,488.00 13,750.00 58,331.00 1,251,914 125%

Attribution CPL 155.00$ 559.24$ 43.96$ 45.96$ 16.51$ -$ 7.89$ 44.38$ 41.74$ 36.14$ -$ 37.14$

Media Budget 1 5,169,162$ -$ 26,081,917$ 4,175,147$ 3,067,976$ -$ 1,001,541$ 5,694,752$ 813,448$ 496,917$ -$ 46,500,860$ 120%

Scenario 2

Original Budget $ 4,305,000 $102,000 $ 21,790,756 $ 3,785,279 $ 805,280 $ - $ 1,000,000 $ 5,585,267 $ 791,525 $ 500,000 $ - $ 38,665,106

Budget Change 50% 0% 120% 110% 400% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 105%

Leads 13,895.27 - 593,340.00 90,849.00 185,852.00 1,734.00 126,895.00 64,163.00 19,488.00 13,750.00 58,331.00 1,168,297 117%

Attribution CPL 155.00$ 559.24$ 43.96$ 45.96$ 16.51$ -$ 7.89$ 44.38$ 41.74$ 36.14$ -$ 34.78$

Media Budget 2 2,153,818$ -$ 26,081,917$ 4,175,147$ 3,067,976$ -$ 1,001,541$ 2,847,376$ 813,448$ 496,917$ -$ 40,638,140$ 105%


What are the implications for you?

• You are the ombudsman for SEM; protect your turf; know what is being included and not included in your attribution models and why.

• If you also have Display and other media channels, understand their interactions and contributions.

• Make sure the modelers understand your marketplace dynamics. In the case presented consumer demand was generated when consumers were billed by their current provider and by competitors’ advertising. Then they searched.

• Be willing to experiment and continually hone your attributions models and budgets based on real world results. Make sure your boss understands too.
