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: Growth of GDP, private investment, and MPI

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Import contents (%) 2518

Consumption 13.5

Government 11.1

Investment 40.6

Domestic demand 18.3

Exports 12.6

Source: I-O table and BOT’s calculations

100

140

180

220

2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q

Chart 5: Capacity index

Source: OIE, and BOT

2000 = 100

0.8

1.0

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1.4

2543Q1 2545Q1 2547Q1 2549

Private investment to GDP deflatorCapital goods import pricesRaw material goods import prices

Chart 4.1: Cost of investment

Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT

Ratio

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Table 1: Import contents in final demand

2518 2523 2528 2533 2538

13.5 20.3 20.8 25.3 31.3

11.1 17.2 17.8 14.9 13.9

40.6 40.9 42.2 46.7 51.2

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12.6 20.3 21.0 32.4 36.2

O table and BOT’s calculations

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Private investment to GDP deflatorCapital goods import pricesRaw material goods import prices

: Cost of investment

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2543Q1 2545Q1 2547Q1

Private investment

Real MLR: in reverse order (RHS)

Chart 4.2: Cost of investment

Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT

%YoY

Note: Real MLR = MLR – Current headline inflation

3

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0

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Private investment

Real MLR: in reverse order (RHS)

: Cost of investment

Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT

%

Current headline inflation

4

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Table 2: Efficiency of investment

2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551

1. ICOR1 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 n.a.

2. TFP1 3.0 3.4 0.6 3.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 2.4 2.1 n.a.

3. Return on investment (%)2

- Asia pacific 12.3 13.5 10.9 10.7 12.1 13.7 15.1 15.2 16.3 12.3

- Malaysia 21.2 19.6 18.4 19.9 24.8 27.3 27.2 27.0 25.8 21.2

- Singapore 14.8 16.8 10.3 9.7 11.7 15.4 23.0 19.0 22.7 14.8

- Korea 15.4 14.8 11.8 13.3 11.9 13.5 13.8 15.7 15.6 15.4

- Thailand 13.8 16.2 15.3 11.3 15.3 25.1 21.1 18.1 19.9 13.8

- Philippines 11.9 12.7 8.3 12.1 11.7 15.5 11.1 11.5 11.9 11.9

Source: 1 Capital Stock of Thailand 2007 Edition (NESDB, 2008)

2 Calculated from Direct investment income for the current year divided by average of FDI stock of the previous year and the current year (UNCTAD 2008)

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Source: BOT

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50

60

70

80

90

2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q1

Capacity utilisation rateTotal order book next 3

Chart 6.1: Factors constraining private investment

Source: BOT

%

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50

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2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q1

Uncertain economic conditionCredit from FIs (RHS)

Chart 6.3: Factors constraining private investment

Source: BOT

% Share

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11.1

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10.1

0 20

Chart 6.4: Factors constrainingprivate investment

Source: BOT

Financial cost

External demand

Political uncertainty

Production cost

Domestic demand

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ก���3IE"40J�BIJ4#(LF4BK4Bก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_( -%#5C(4+5'��$IJ4ก��Xlm(IE"VA%ก��#I���IK4BT�0WI�'S�(ก�� &̂#_J(( \ ����' ����%�)),����E�ก������)ก%IF����

����ก�� ���������)%��ก����������'�,2�6�2)%IF�กC�!��ก� ���ก����������ก��0/�/�40�JW(�%3E�� F#�!�%'!40J�BIJ4#(LF4B VA%'JB#'��!ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-

$"�!'�!��SW(ก��VKJBKE(K4B5�%#�)W(�%0%0�"

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5��HH�!���E^��I '�K�"�_�#)�12)�'I�& $^%#)�12)�'I�& -+��ABก�^&!��"��0�AE0.

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40

45

50

55

60

1 2551Q1

Uncertain economic condition

constraining private investment

Diffussion index

6

6 ����� !�ก�"#$� ��%��� �&'ก��4 ก�ก(�) 2552

16.8

22.6

17.5

16.2

10.8

19.2

15.8

8.1

15.2

20 40 60 80

1st

2nd

3rd

: Factors constraininginvestment

% Share

�E\B( \ �Aก��'G��"-���5�%ก4�ก��M�"J� �8��������7�,2���]�ก�5���ก��)1��

M�"J� ก��AB�+(T�$�E2-%'JB�AIJ4ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-3EB(E\( W(T�"%� Fก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_(�3

����' ����%�)),����E�ก������)ก%IF��612�E��),��)�)/�����. ��� �&'ก����!�),��],���6 ��)��F� ����)������)�)�]E�ก��%!�%��

�30IE"40J�B!�I�ก��� F'G�$EHK4B�E2W(3��(( \ $L4 �$�Bก��3��(ก��)Rก1�#� 0(X� 15 5[ VA%�$�Bก��ME|(�V�AJB(\G�#MLF4ก��#ก1I� T�0WI�!�I�ก��ก�%I+�(#)�12ก�-#�JB3J"(W(�%0%� F 1 #5C(I�(

ก��K0�0ก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_(� F!�ก#ก�(U5-%�G�W��! ก��(G�#K��'�($���+(� F'�BKR\( VA%'JB�AK^%� Fก��AB�+(T�$�E2� FAJ�_��-%�G�W��#ก�3$"�!IกIFG�K4B

��)0)!��)�)��0)!��/�����%��ก������ก�II� A�F!'ก+A, 2540)9

-%#5C(4+5'��$IJ4ก��Xlm(IE"VA%ก��#I���IK4B����' ����%�)),����E�ก������)ก%IF����

����ก�� ���������)%��ก����������'�,2�6�2)%IF�กC�!��ก� ���ก����������ก��0/�/��� 'JB#'��!ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-40J�B!

�Aก�%��K4Bก��AB�+(T�$�E2IJ4ก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_(VA%ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-K4B5�%#�)U�0. "��0�(�M(*&

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7

7 ��������� ��12�� 3�� ��ก����������ก���ก��ก�����������ก��ก� ����� !�ก�"#$� ��%��� �&'ก��4 ก�ก(�) 2552

K�4$"�$G�(RB $L4 #MLF4W��ก��W_�#B�(T�1 K4B'J"(�"!#ก�35�%�0_(&'�B'+3 ����'��������2)ก������E�.�������61F�'��,2�)�]��0���!ก�%�� ����� �&'ก����ก����������ก��0/���!�������� ���������!� !���12�� !�กก"J�� F-%IE3'�(W-AB�+(�$�B'���BML\(2�(#!LF4#�N(! ก��K0�0IE"K4Bก��AB�+(VA%ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-VA�" #M��%��ก#)�12ก�-_%A4IE"-%�G�W��ก��AB�+(�$�B'���BML\(2�(I�4B_%BEกBE( VA%I�4BW_��%0%#"A�0�"(�(KR\( (4ก-�ก( \ $"�!+JB#(�(5�%'��*�T�MK4Bก��AB�+(3�"0

� !"�#$��%�&'(#�)*+�ก�-VA%

� !(�0��0#)�12ก�-3��(4+5��( ก�กr�$! 2552

��ก��������: Bakhshi, Hasan and Jamie, Thompson (2002), Explaining Trends in U.K. Business Investment, Bank of England

Quarterly Bulletin, Spring. Mallikamas, Roong Poshyananda, Yunyong Taicharoen, and Duangporn Rodpengsangkaha (2003), Investment

Cycles, Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy, BOT Symposium 2003, August. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (2008), Capital Stock of Thailand 2007 Edition. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2008), World Investment Report 2008:

Transnational Corporations and the Infrastructure Challenge, July. Whitaker, Simon (1998), Investment in this Recovery: an Assessment, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin,

February. ก�%��"Bก��$AEB (2552), KJ�"ก�%��"Bก��$AEB h�E�� F 5/2552 "E(� F 20 !ก��$! 2552 ก�II� A�F!'ก+A. (2540). "�กZI#)�12ก�-!�T�$VA%�Aก�%��T�$#)�12ก�--��B. #)�12ก�-U�0: "�กZIVA%��B44ก: 1-10. *(�$��V�JB5�%#�)U�0 ��0B�(V("�(�!#B�(#XY4 h�E�#3L4(#!1�0( 2547 VA%#3L4(ก�กr�$! 2548 T�"�( "��(�E0 (2547). �Aก�%��K4Bก��AB�+(T�$�E2IJ4ก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_(VA%ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-K4B5�%#�)

U�0. "��0�(�M(*&5��HH�!���E^��I '�K�"�_�#)�12)�'I�& $^%#)�12)�'I�& -+��ABก�^&!��"��0�AE0. '+"��0& $+^ก�II� (2551), 5�2กS�M�#)1 #�LF4B 5[V�JBก��AB�+( 2551-2552 (Thailand Investment Year 2008 - 2009), 10

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