99+ more effort required from the weakest europe has … · central asia middle east and north...
TRANSCRIPT
Critical
Very Low
Low
Middle
Acceptable
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia and Pacific
Latin America and Caribbean
Central AsiaMiddle East and North Africa
EuropeNorth America
64
69
86
88
9192
9796
70
7171
80
90
9697
99
8888
88
93
99+
99
94
99
2004 2009 2015
BASICCAPABILITIES
INDEX
The 2009 Basic Capabilities Index (BCI) constructed by Social Watch shows that, even without the not-yet-registered impact of the world economic crisis, most countries in the world are at risk of not achieving their poverty reduction com-mitments. A significant proportion of the 175 countries considered (42.3%) obtained a BCI rating of low, very low or criti-cal, and barely half the countries for which data is available made progress (52.7%). Countries that started from a very low level are regressing, which worsens the gap and increases the disparity between countries and regions. Only Europe and North America could potentially reach acceptable BCI values by the year 2015. Southern Asia is progressing fast, but its starting point is so low that it will still be far from acceptable in the coming decade. Latin America and the Caribbean are not progressing at all and 41% of the countries that have regressed on the BCI are in sub-Saharan Africa. The numbers reveal a dramatic situation of global inequity.
All Quiet
on the Poverty Front
Basic capaBilities index - forecast By region
IF ThE CurrENT rATES OF PrOgrESS ArE mAINTAINEd, By 2015 SuB-SAhArAN AFrICA WILL BArELy CrEEP uP TO ThE “vEry LOW” LEvEL, WITh A BCI vALuE OF A mErE 71 POINTS, SOuTh ASIA WILL NOT EvEN rEACh ThE “LOW” LEvEL AS ThEy WILL ONLy OBTAIN 80 POINTS ON ThE BCI, WhILE EAST ASIA ANd PACIFIC WILL juST ABOuT rEACh ThE mIddLE LEvEL WITh 90 POINTS. mIddLE EAST ANd NOrTh AFrICA ANd CENTrAL ASIA WOuLd STArT TO AP-PrOACh ThE mIddLE LEvEL (97 ANd 96 POINTS, rESPECTIvELy), WhILE NOrTh AmErICA ANd EurOPE ArE ThE ONLy rEgIONS ThAT COuLd rEACh AN ACCEPTABLE BCI LEvEL (99+ ANd 99 POINTS, rESPECTIvELy).
2009
99+
98
93
88
83
78
73
68
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
SOUTH ASIA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
CENTRAL ASIA
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
MIDDLE EAST ANDM
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
99
99
88
71
70
94
93
By comBining what each region has reached in Bci
points (represented as height in the graph) and the
further steps still needed to achieve 99+ in Bci points
(that is, the distance to overcome to reach an “ac-
ceptaBle” level) a relative position is oBtained for
each region and the graph looks like a slope. thus,
the Bci level would Be the height of the mountain
while the effort required (*) is the distance to the
top. the effort required from the climBers, repre-
senting different regions, to reach acceptaBle Bci
levels is far from Being equal.
the countries with low Bci not only have a great-
er distance to cover to achieve a Basic dignity for
all their people, But they face a steep slope. imag-
ine a country where nine out of ten children go
to school. the distance to the education goal is
just 10% and to cut By half the numBer of children
without education the government only needs to
increase the numBer of teachers and school facili-
ties By 5%. in a country where only 20% of children
go to school, the gap to the goal is 80% and to cut
it By half implies that the government has to Build
schools and hire teachers for 40% of the children,
which means treBling the present capacity. and that
would still leave 40% of the children out of school,
which is far from acceptaBle.
the universal declaration of human rights com-
mits all countries to achieve “dignity for all”, But
the means to do that are not there where they are
needed the most.
Evolution by countries and regions
In 2009, almost half the countries of the world (42.1%) have a BCI value that is low, very low or critical. At the current rate of progress, in 2015 the average BCI value of the countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will barely be at the very low level, and all the other regions of the world except for Europe and North America will still fall far short of the acceptable level.
Since 2005, less than half of the countries of the world have made progress (43%) and almost one fourth have re-gressed. A third of the countries (33%) have not managed to raise their BCI value by more than 1% and only one out of every six countries (18%) shows significant progress.
There is an enormous gap in living conditions between the region with the highest average BCI (North America with 99 points) and the regions with the worst averages (sub-Sa-haran Africa with 70 points and South Asia with 71).
South Asia was the region with the worst BCI average in 2004. It is making fast progress, but the situation is still extremely critical.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is similarly critical, as shown by an average BCI value of only 70 points, and the average evolution shows an improvement of a mere 0.6%. At this rate it would take centuries to achieve the social development goals internationally agreed for 2015! East Asia and the Pacific, like Central Asia, show some re-sults in improving their basic capabilities, with an average progress of around 2% in each. North America, the mid-dle East and North Africa all registered rates of progress of 3% and more, but this is less remarkable because they departed from a better situation and the effort required is therefore less.
The latest data gives cause for concern about Latin Amer-ica and the Caribbean, a region that already ranked low in terms of basic capabilities, and even regressed (by -0.2%). The only regions that have remained at the accept-able level on the index are Europe and North America.
MorE EfforT rEquIrED froM ThE wEAkEST
*effort required: ThE EFFOrT NEEdEd TO rEACh ThE OBjECTIvE IS ArrIvEd AT By AN EQuATION IN WhICh CurrENT vALuE ON ThE BCI IS dIvIdEd By AN ESTImATION OF ThE rELATIvE dISTANCE ThAT STILL rEmAINS TO BE COvErEd. ThIS rELATIvE dISTANCE IS rEPrESENTEd By ThE PrOPOrTION BETWEEN WhAT EACh rEgION IS LACkINg IN OrdEr TO rEACh AN ACCEPTABLE BCI vALuE ANd ThE mAxImum INEQuALITy ThAT ThErE IS BETWEEN rEgIONS (ThE 28.7 POINTS ON ThE BCI BETWEEN NOrTh AmErICA ANd SuB-SAhArAN AFrICA).TO mAkE ThIS INFOrmATION ACCESSIBLE TO ThE rEAdEr ThE rESuLT IS muLTIPLIEd By 100 SO IT APPEArS AS A PErCENTAgE rAThEr ThAN A PrOPOrTION. hENCE ThE grAdIENT ThAT SEPA-rATES ThE rEgIONS rEPrESENTS ThE ABSOLuTE dIFFErENCE ON ThE INdEx (hEIghT) ANd ThE rELATIvE dISAdvANTAgE OF rEgrESSION (dISTANCE) rESuLTINg FrOm ThE POSITION OF EACh rEgION IN ThE rACE.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
BCI
190 countries in total
BCI 2009
18.9%36 countries
11.1%21 countries
12.1%23 countries
31.6%60 countries
26.3%50 countries
Number of countries in each BCI level by reference year
BCI LEvEL
155 countries in total
21.3%33 countries
10.3%16 countries
14.9%23 countries
BCI 2004
11.6%18 countries
41,9%65 countries
Acceptablemedium
Lowvery Low
Critical
Social Watch developed the BCI as an instrument to monitor the
evolution of basic indicators and to make comparisons between and
within countries. This is a summary-index that compares and classi-
fies countries according to their progress in social development by
evaluating their situation in terms of minimum basic capabilities
– structural dimensions that represent the indispensable starting
conditions to guarantee an adequate quality of life.
The index identifies situations of poverty and it consists of three
indicators: the percentage of children reaching fifth grade, survival
until the age of 5, and the percentage of births attended by skilled
personnel*. These indicators express different dimensions that are
considered in internationally agreed development objectives (edu-
cation, infant health and reproductive health). The BCI does not use
income as an indicator. It defines poverty not in terms of money,
but in different aspects of people’s actual condition and their great-
er or lesser possibility of having their human rights fulfilled.
The BCI is based on the latest available information for each coun-
try and it is easy to construct and can be applied at the sub-national
and municipal levels. Since it does not include income as one of its
components, it can be built without having to resort to costly house-
hold surveys, which is the problem with indexes based on income,
such as the World Bank measure of the number of people living on
less than one or two dollars a day, or the UNDP’s Human Develop-
ment Index, which combines income with health and education
indicators. Precisely because it dispenses with income as an indica-
tor, the BCI has proved to be highly correlated with the measure of
other human capabilities and, in particular, the 41 different indi-
cators used to measure progress towards the different Millennium
Development Goals agreed internationally in the year 2000. Con-
trary to the MDGs, though, the BCI can be used to assign a value to
each country, so comparisons can be made with other countries and
the progress can be evaluated over time.
The BCI indicators show maximum values when all women are at-
tended by skilled health personnel at delivery, when no child drops
out of school before completing the fifth grade and when infant
mortality is brought down to its lowest possible level of less than
five deaths among children under five years old per thousand live
births. These indicators are closely linked to the other basic capa-
Basic Capabilities Index: a starting point
bilities the members of a society should have, capabilities that re-
inforce each other to make better individual and collective develop-
ment possible.
The 2009 BCI was calculated for 175 countries, and these are grouped
in various categories**. The countries in the most serious situation
are those with a Critical BCI (less than 70 points). In the Very Low
BCI category (from 70 to 79 points) there are countries facing major
obstacles to achieving well-being for the population. The countries
with Low BCI (from 80 to 89 points) are at an intermediate level as
regards the satisfaction of basic needs, and their performance varies
in some dimensions of development. The countries that have pro-
gressed and now satisfy most or all the population’s basic capabili-
ties are in the two categories with the highest values: Medium BCI
(from 90 to 97) and Acceptable (more than 98 points and more).
The BCI of a country approaches 100 when there is universal access
to the three minimum levels of social coverage mentioned above.
These factors indicate the satisfaction of the most fundamental of
all social rights, which are access to adequate health care, and uni-
versal, good quality basic education.
Social Watch understands that a BCI value close to the maximum
reflects the “dignity for all” proclaimed by the Universal Declaration
of Human Rights. Reaching this level does not mean that a country
has attained all the goals of social well-being that are desirable in a
society; it merely indicates a starting point towards those goals.
*ThE BCI WAS OrIgINATEd IN ThE QuALITy OF LIFE INdEx dEvELOPEd By ThE NON-gOvErNmENT OrgANIzATION ACTION FOr ECONOmIC rEFOrmS (PhILIPPINES), WhICh WAS dErIvEd FrOm ThE CAPABILITy POvErTy mEASurE (CPm) PrOPOSEd By PrOFESSOr AmArTyA SEN ANd POPuLArIzEd AS ThE uNdP humAN dEvELOPmENT INdEx.
EFFOrT rEQuIrEd *
Des
ign
by: i
code
mon
.com
Europe has held steady with a positive variation of 0.6%, while North America has enjoyed a considerable increase in its BCI average (2.9% over the 2004 value).
**ThE mEThOdOLOgICAL PrOCESS dESIgNEd TO ESTImATE BCI vALuES WhEN ThErE IS A LACk OF INFOrmATION FOr ONE OF ThE INdICATOrS ThAT mAkES uP ThE vALuE CONSISTS OF ThE FOLLOWINg.
a) COuNTrIES ArE CONSIdErEd ON A rEgIONAL BASIS, ANd ONLy ThOSE ThAT ArE IN A SImILAr rELATIvE SITuATION TO ThE COuNTry FOr WhICh INFOrmATION IS LACkINg ArE CONSIdErEd. ThIS ImPLIES ThE ASSumPTION ThAT COuNTrIES ArE SImILAr IN TErmS OF PErFOrmANCE TO NEIghBOurINg COuNTrIES AT A SImILAr LEvEL OF dEvELOPmENT. (COuNTrIES dESIgNATEd “hIgh INCOmE” By ThE WOrLd BANk ArE CLASSIFIEd IN SuB-rE-gIONS, ThuS INCrEASINg ThE TOTAL FrOm 8 TO 15 rEgIONS.)
B) AN AvErAgE OF ThE vALuES FOr ThE mISSINg INdICATOr IS mAdE juST FrOm ThE COuNTrIES IN ThE SAmE rEgION.
c) ThE AvErAgE OF INdICATOrS WITh INFOrmATION IS ESTImATEd FOr ALL ThE COuN-TrIES.
d) ThE ArIThmETICAL mEAN Or AvErAgE IS CALCuLATEd AmONg ThE mEAN vALuES CAL-CuLATEd IN “C” (ONLy AmONg COuNTrIES IN ThE rEgION COrrESPONdINg TO EACh CON-CrETE ESTImATION NEEd).
e) ThE vALuE OBTAINEd IN “d” IS SuBTrACTEd FrOm EACh vALuE OBTAINEd IN “C”, WhICh yIELdS A COrrECTION FACTOr FOr EACh COuNTry.
f) ThE vALuE OBTAINEd IN “B” IS AddEd TO ThE vALuE OBTAINEd IN “E”, WhICh yIELdS A COrrECTION OF ThE rEgIONAL mEAN EIThEr uP Or dOWN IN FuNCTION OF ThE mEAN PErFOrmANCE rEgISTErEd FOr EACh COuNTry, IN ThE TWO INdICATOrS FOr WhICh IN-FOrmATION IS AvAILABLE.
g) ANd LASTLy, ThE vALuE OBTAINEd IN “F” IS ImPuTEd TO ThE COuNTrIES IN ThAT rE-gION ANd IN A SImILAr rELATIvE SITuATION FOr WhICh ThE dATA IN QuESTION IS NOT AvAILABLE.
h) IF AS A rESuLT OF ThE PrOCEdurE OuTLINEd ABOvE ThE INdICATOr ExCEEdS 100 POINTS, ANd AS WE ArE dEALINg WITh A PErCENTAgE, ThE vALuE OF 100 POINTS IS gIvEN AS ThIS IS ThE mAxImum POSSIBLE.
icbotro.indd 1 04/12/2009 11:21:42
Tropic of Cancer
Tropic of Capricorn Tropic of Capricorn
Equator
Tropic of Cancer
Galapagos
Falklands
(EC)
San Felix I.(CHILE) San Ambrosio I.
(CHILE)
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(US)
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(AUSTL)
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Norfolk Is.(AUSTL)
Lord Howe Is.(AUSTL)
(US)Wake
(US)
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PHILIPPINES
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AUSTRALIA
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KANAKY
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BRUNEI
SING
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SOLOMON IS.
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ALB.
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KINGDOM
IRELAND
NET
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BELARUS
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MOLDOVA
SERBIAMONT.
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TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
GRENADA
FRENCH GUIANAGUYANA
SURINAME
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
PERU
CHILE
BOLIVIA
ECUADOR
Ecuator
URUGUAY
PARAGUAY
COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA
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ST. KITTS-NEVIS
GUADELOUPE
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ST. LUCIA BARBADOS
ST. VINCENTARUBANETH. ANT.
ALASKAGreenland
CANADA
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JAPAN
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KOREA REP. OF
(DEN)
BERMUDA
U.A.E.
TUNISIA
FIJI
99+96
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA99
B-H.
87
62
91
96
97
85
96
91
66
93
98
99+
68
99+
96
92
56
58
9488
71 79
73
97
95
95
97
89
70
99
44
96
93
98
95
81
99
67
68
74
65
76
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68
77
55
66
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65
76
75
60
83
89
89 72
80
59
66
79
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7162
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46
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61
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90
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79
88
86
93
7080
82
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87
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9999
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99
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96
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68
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98
8482
98
68
68
98
99
99
99
99+
99+
59
99
99
89
93
58
99+
97
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
CAMEROON
ALGERIA
LIBYA EGYPT
SUDAN CHAD
MALIMAURITANIA
MOROCCO
NIGER
NIGERIA
ETHIOPIA
ERITREA
D.R. CONGO
TANZANIA
KENYA
SENEGAL
GAMBIA
GUINEA60GUINEA BISSAU
SIERRA LEONE
CO
TED
'IVO
IRE
GH
ANA
TOG
OB
ENIN
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE
GABON
CON
GO
BURUNDI
RWANDA
EQ.GUINEA
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
SOUTH AFRICA
SOMALIA
MOZAM
BIQUE
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
MALAWI
MADAGASCAR
REUNION
MAURITIUS
COMORES
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABW
E
BURKINAFASO
94
9799
99+
96
78
53
93
89
89
76
99+
99
0
20
4060
80
100BCI
PROGRESS
REGRESSION
ACCEPTABLE LEVEL: The following countries had achieved an acceptable level before 2009.
55 58 61 6671
6656 62 67 767168 72 7968 73 73 77
68 7168 6879
6173 7770 70 7168
77 83817874 82908887 8988 89 91
9589 89 89 90 93
8993 95
90 92 9692 92 93 93 95 959594 9494 94 94 9695 96 9696 96 9693 9693 979795 97 97
46
95 979593 96
766565
84 868287
82 85808076 79
5353 53
7591
4456 58 58 59 5959 59 60 6060
LAO PDR
PAPUA NEW GUINEA (*)
NEPAL
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
CAMBODIA
PAKISTAN
MOZAM
BIQUE
UGANDA
MALAW
I
YEMEN
MADAGASCAR
GHANA
ERITREA
KENYA
GUINEA
ZAMBIA
BHUTAN
TOGOTANZANIA
GAMBIA
CAMEROON
INDIABURKINA FASO
SENEGAL
GUATEMALA
COMOROS
BURUNDI
MYANM
AR
BENIN
NICARAGUA
LESOTHO
MAURITANIA
ZIMBABW
E
HONDURAS
SWAZILAND
PHILIPPINES
CÔTE D'IVOIRE
SÃO TOMÉ AND PRINCIPE
MOROCCO
BOTSWANA
EL SALVADOR
CONGO, REP.
CONGO, R. D. (*)
BOLIVIA
SUDAN
GUYANA
ECUADOR
GABON
VANUATU
SURINAME
SAUDI ARABIA (*)
INDONESIA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TAJIKISTAN (*)
PERUNAM
IBIA
MALDIVES
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
MEXICO
SOUTH AFRICA
KIRIBATI
TUVALU
VENEZUELA (*)
BRAZIL
CAPE VERDE
EGYPT
PANAMA
PALAU (*)
DJIBOUTI
GRENADA
DOMINICA
TURKEY
BELIZE
VIET NAM
THAILAND (*)
TONGA
TUNISIA
AZERBAIJAN
PARAGUAY
JAMAICA (*)
GEORGIA
ALGERIA
LEBANON
MONGOLIA
SRI-LANKA
COSTA RICA
SAMOA
SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
QATARBULGARIA
NEW ZEALAND (*)
ANGOLA (*)
GUINEA BISSAU (*)
MALAYSIA
ST. VINCENT AND THE
ALBANIA
COLOMBIA
IRAN (*)
NAURU
LIBERIA (*)
TIMOR-LESTE (*)
SIERRA LEONE (*)
CENTRAL AFRICAN REP.
FIJIM
ALIIRAQ
ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
GRENADINES
CHINA (*)
NIUE (*)
NIGER
NIGERIA
AFGHANISTAN (*)
CHADBANGLADESH
ETHIOPIA
RWANDA
MARSHALL ISLANDS (*)
ARGENTINAARMENIA (*)AUSTRALIA (*)AUSTRIA (*)BAHAMASBAHRAINBARBADOSBELARUSBELGIUM
BRUNEICANADA (*)CHILECROATIACUBACYPRUSCZECH REPUBLICDENMARK (*)ESTONIA
FINLANDFRANCEGERMANYGREECE (*)HUNGARY (*)ICELAND (*)IRELANDISRAEL (*)ITALY
JAPAN (*)JORDANKAZAKHSTAN (*)KOREA,REP.KUWAITKYRGYZSTAN (*)LATVIALIBYA (*)LITHUANIA (*)
LUXEMBOURGMALTAMAURITIUSNETHERLANDSNORWAYOMANPOLANDPORTUGAL (*)ROMANIA (*)
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (*)SEYCHELLESSINGAPORE (*)SLOVAKIASLOVENIASPAIN (*)ST . LUCIASWEDENSWITZERLAND (*)
UKRAINE (*)UNITED ARAB EMIRATESUNITED KINGDOM (*)UNITED STATES OF AMERICAURUGUAY
THE COUNTRIES MARKED WITH AN ASTERISK (*) ARE INCLUDED BY USING A METHODOLOGICAL PROCESS DESIGNED TO ESTIMATE THEIR VALUE ON THE CURRENT BCI, BECAUSE THERE IS A LACK OF INFORMATION FOR ONE OF THE INDICATORS THAT MAKES UP THIS VALUE.
The BCI uses an alternative methodol-ogy to register the progress – or lack of progress – towards compliance with the Millennium Development Goals. This index constitutes a new method-ology that complements in numerous respects the human development in-dexes most commonly used.
To reach an acceptable BCI does not imply a high level of social develop-ment. It merely signifies that the coun-try has achieved universal coverage of minimum essential needs that are a prerequisite for advancing towards greater wellbeing. It is a departure point, not a destination.
The InTernaTIonal SecreTarIaT of SocIal WaTch alSo receIveS fundIng andSupporT from The ford foundaTIon and The coalITIon of The flemISh norThSouTh movemenT - 11.11.11.
The conTenTS of ThIS publIcaTIon are The Sole reSponSIbIlITy of SocIalWaTch and can In no Way be Taken To reflecT The vIeWS of The europeanunIon, oxfam novIb, The ford foundaTIon or The coalITIon of The flemIShnorTh SouTh movemenT 11.11.11.
mAdE POSSIBLE ThANkS TO ThE FuNdINg ANd SuPPOrT OF ThE EurOPEAN uNIONANd OxFAm NOvIB.
© ITem 2009, SocIal WaTch, WWW.SocIalWaTch.org phone: +598(2) 902 0490. fax: +598(2) 902 0490 exT 113
BCI LEVEL
REFERENCES
ACCEPTABLE
MEDIUM
LOW
PROGRESS
AND REGRESSIONNO DATA ON EVOLUTION
SIGNIFICANTPROGRESS
SLIGHT PROGRESS
PROGRESS
REGRESSION
NO DATA ON EVOLUTION
STAGNANT
STAGNANT
REGRESSION
MAJOR REGRESSION
VERY LOW
CRITICAL
BASICCAPABILITIES
INDEX2009
icbotro.indd 2 04/12/2009 11:21:46