Happy 2008 Last year we highlighted trends like (STILL) MADE HERE FE-MALE FEVER TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY TRYSUMERS and more To get you going this year here are 8 trends to make the most of 2008 And yes more to follow in the months to come -)

Lets start this Trend Briefing by looking back At the beginning of 2007 as part of our STATUS LIFESTYLES trend we wrote

Heres something trend watchers CMOs and other business professionals should be able to agree on in the end when dealing with (and selling to) people everything always comes back to status In a traditional consumer society he or she who consumes the most the best the coolest the most ex-pensive the scarcest or the most popular goods will typi-cally also gain the most status

Now you guessed it the above still rings true in 2008 and should be on your mind wheneverwherever -- when tracking trends when mapping out new strategies and when coming up with new products and services for your customers In fact this year even

more brands will realize (if not grudgingly accept) that old mass-era status symbols from the Audi R8 to the De Beers Talisman Watch Collection are no longer every consumers wet dream After all as mature consumer societies are increasingly dominated by (physical) abundance by saturation by experiences by virtual worlds by individualism by participation by feelings of guilt and concern about the side effects of unbridled consumption status is to be had in many more ways than leading a lifestyle centered on hoarding as many branded luxury goods as possible

Weve dubbed the above phenomenon STATUS SPHERES a variety of lifestyles activities and persuasions which can be mixed and matched by consumers looking for recognition from various crowds and scenes Getting too vague Here are some STATUS SPHERES to keep an eye out for in the next 12 months

Traditional consumption is about buying more andor better stuff than fellow consumers Which is by no means dead In fact ex-pect the consumer arena in 2008 to still be about hundreds of millions of consumers who do want to consume more who do covet all things bling who do crave in-your-face brands Oh and even if (a big if) conspicuous consumption were ever to subside in mature consumer societies then count on the emerging middle classes in China India Russia South Africa Turkey Nigeria Vietnam Indonesia Mexico and Brazil to proudly take over the torch In other words count on multiple consumption and status arenas to develop simultaneously for years to come

However while the rise of the global middle class is as big a story as they come the rise of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) has an equally significant impact on consumerism Consider the fol-lowing numbers from the 2007 World Wealth Report by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini

13 bull13 The number of HNWIsmdashindividuals with net assets of at least USD 1 million excluding their primary residence

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and consumablesmdashin the world increased 83 to 95 million

13 bull13 The number of ultra-HNWIsmdashindividuals with net assets of at least USD 30 million excluding their primary resi-dence and consumablesmdashgrew by 113 to 94970

13 bull13 The BRIC nations (Brazil Russia India and China) con-tinue to play increasingly important roles in the global economy China and Russia were among the top ten countries with the fastest growing HNWI populations Chinaʼs HNWI population grew by 78 to 345000 peo-ple and Russiaʼs has increased by 155 to 119000 Brazil (120000 HNWIs) and India (100000 HNWIs) also showed continued strength

With so much (new) wealth and disposable income around the world not only is there money to be made from selling premium goods thereʼs also a constant need for redefining what constitutes luxury for what constitutes status in bling-driven consumer socie-ties If millions have access to the same premium goods to the same premium brands these premium offerings lose some of their value as their entire raison dʼecirctre was to offer something that oth-ers could not get access to Scarcity is becoming less scarce and wealth is always relative leading to actual STATUS DESPAIR among those who are by all means financially well off

So in an arena that has become crowded with middle class and high net worth consumers expect luxury goods to take on more outlandish forms and shapes at ever-higher costs Our most re-cent favorite example of STATUS DESPAIR was Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud of Saudi Arabia buying himself a USD 320 million Airbus 380 which for another USD 100+ million will be turned into a flying palace with three bedrooms private lounges bathrooms offices a steam bath and exercise machines But even here commoditization is threatening the Princes pur-chase Airbus actually expects to sell about 20 VIP versions of the A380

As weʼve pointed out many times before one mistake both trend watchers and brands make all the time is to assume or pretend that a certain ʻtrendʼ will affect or be embraced by ALL consumers No Remember in life and in trends beauty (or ugliness) is in the eye of the beholder

The Chinese middle class consists of those people who have a degree of economic independence but not a great deal of social influence or power The term often encompasses merchants and professionals bureaucrats and some farmers and skilled workers Definition of middle class in China managers professionals skilled technicians and service workers earning USD 2500 to USD 10000 a year each It is expected to grow from 100 million people in 2005 to 200 million people by 2010 reaching 315 million by 2015 (Source Insight Bureau)

Luckily before we reach total STATUS DESPAIR theres still plenty of room for innovation in the traditional sphere check PREMIUMIZATION (trend 2) below

Attractive to consumers who are driven by experiences instead of the fixedmdashthose who are driven by entertainment by discovery by fighting boredom who increasingly live a transient lifestyle freeing themselves from the hassles of permanent ownership and possessions

We dubbed these consumers TRANSUMERS about a year ago and the trend is still building Implications for 2008 An obsession with the here and now an ever-shorter satisfaction span and a lust to collect as many experiences and stories as possible is undermining the perceived value (and thus status) of fixed goods and services More practical examples in SNACK CULTURE (trend 3) below

Where to begin In an online world or virtual world social status 20 is all about who you connect to and who wants to connect to you tribal-style It also encompasses status gained from the num-ber of views for ones photos on Flickr to the number of friends on Facebook to ones gaming skills and levels (just a snippet Micro-softs Halo 3 racked up USD 170 million in sales on its first day of availability making it the hottest-selling title in video game his-tory Total sales since September 2007 4+ million copies) to the good looks of ones avatar to finding out about whateverwherever on anything before anyone else does More on this in ONLINE OXYGEN (trend 4) below

With the environment finally on the agenda of most powers that be and millions of consumers now actively trying to greenify their lives status in the eco-sphere is both more readily available and increasing in value A substantial subset of consumers is already bestowing recognition and praise on Prius drivers while scorning SUV owners and this will only accelerate as even more design-minded and branding-savvy eco-firms push to the forefront in 2008 Make it green make it effortless make it visible if not bold if not iconic and dont hesitate to point out your competitors pollut-ing alternatives -) For more on this see ECO-ICONIC (trend 5) below

Find us one high-profile billionaire whos not deeply into giving right now In fact whether its giving away your riches your time or sharing your (content) creations with total strangers giving is the new taking For an excellent overview of the worlds most gen-erous philanthropists (trendsetters par excellence) check out BusinessWeeks recent special on the topic For brand implica-tions see BRAND BUTLERS (trend 6) below

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings More at wwwtrendwatchingcom 13 13 13 13 13 2 22

Especially for younger (and younger-at-heart) consumers partici-pation is the new consumption For these creative beings status comes from finding an appreciative audience which is much the same way brands operate No wonder that its becoming increas-ingly important to hone ones creative skills Status symbols make way for STATUS SKILLS Whats going to be your participation strategy for 2008 See also trends 7 and 8 in this briefing MYI | MAKE IT YOURSELF and CROWD MINING

One thing you cant go wrong with this year is to ask yourself how your current and new products and experiences will satisfy an audience of very diverse status seekers If you havent done so already get rid of the habit of only focusing on traditional status symbols and you will find there is no end to the number of STATUS SPHERES youll be able to identify

Enjoy these free briefingsThen you will love our 2OO9 Trend Report

More at wwwtrendwatchingcomtrendreport raquo

Londons St Pancras International railway station is now home to Europes longest champagne bar (96 meters)

Definitely part of the traditional sphere PREMIUMIZATION is not going to go away in 2008 Basically with more wealth burning holes in (saturated and experienced) consumers pockets than ever before quick status fixes derived from premium products and premium experiences will continue in full force next year

Whats new then How about 2008 being about the PREMIUMI-ZATION of everything and anything In other words no industry no sector no product will escape a premium version in the next 12 months Some poignant PREMIUMIZATION examples for that sign of the times feeling

13 bull13 OK so weve done wine coffee and tea which leaves water to get its much-deserved PREMIUMIZATION mo-ment And we dont mean of the Pellegrino or Perrier kind those upgraded bottled water brands have become too mainstream to excite truly premium-obsessed con-sumers (who dont care about carbon footprints but well get back to that later on) So make way for Evians limited release Palace bottle only available in high end bars and restaurants Features a specially designed pouring top

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and is accompanied by a stainless steel coaster selling for USD 15-20 per bottle

13 bull13 Bling H20 is bottled water that comes in limited edition corked 750 ml frosted glass bottles embellished with Swarovski crystals Established in 2005 by a Hollywood writer-producer who noticed that ldquoyou could tell a lot about a person by the bottled water that they carriedrdquo Bling H20 is designed to be as much a fashion accessory as a drink of water Aiming to be the Cristal of bottled water its been spotted at everything from the MTV Awards to the Emmys The bottles cost from USD 17ndash480

13 bull13 Tasmanian Rain is captured on the pristine north west coast of the island of Tasmania Australia The water is collected just minutes from where the World Meteoro-logical Organization records the worlds purest air As this rain has traveled eastward via air currents over Ant-arctica and 10000 miles of ocean it contains 17 parts per million of dissolved solids Tasmanian Rain is col-lected by a custom-designed catchment facility and never touches the ground And so on

13 bull13 Carlsberg 900 (which doesnt have its own website) launched this summer in a very limited number of se-lected bars in Stockholm Developed in collaboration with 12 top Swedish bartenders Carlsberg 900 is ldquobrewed from refined virgin hops and selected crystal malt and triple filtered with a longer cooler fermentation process to ensure a pure delicate tasterdquo Carlsberg 900 is priced at the premium end of the market about the price of decent glass of champagne

13 bull13 Further proof that anything can be PREMIUMIZED luxury marshmallows From Dean amp DeLucas 1-pound Bouleacute Marshmallow Sampler of lemon chiffon passion fruit vanilla and rose-petal flavors (USD 28) to Petes Gourmet dipped and undipped marshmallows which are 1 USD a piece

13 bull13 Get ready to welcome honey to the world of PREMIUMI-ZATION Most supermarket honey is imported from China and Argentina andor blended from many sources creating a homogenous taste But like water marshmal-lows and beer honey is now striking back with a sweet vengeance and artisanal honeys are on the rise Since honeys flavor and color are determined by the source of nectar theres a huge variety of very local and exclusive types of honey with floral sources varying from tupelo gum tree and Tasmanian leatherwood to cranberry and orange blossom The Savannah Bee Company for ex-ample sells its honeycomb jars with this awe-inspiring description Filled with honey equaling the lifes work of two bees each golden cell brims with the concentrated nectar of thousands of rare and remote Georgia flowersldquo In New York the Blue Ribbon Bakery Market has in-stalled a honey bar selling imported raw honey from Mexico Seasonal (read limited time only) varieties in-clude mesquite blossom orange blossom and golden reserve Also emphasizing the unique flavors of different varieties Bee Raw Honey sells sets of honey samples packaging the liquid gold in test-tubes that are corked and hand-sealed with beeswax

13 bull13 More PREMIUMIZATION of the sweet kind chocolate succumbed to PREMIUMIZATION years ago with artisan chocolate boutiques now charging top dollareuropound for wasabi-infused bonbons from San Francisco to Sin-gapore So whats next A recent article in the Financial Times How to Spend It supplement (which together with Monocle is probably the best publication dedicated to PREMIUMIZATION) lists a number of chocolatiers who are going bespoke Check out firms like Melt Paul A Young and Sir Hans Sloane Chocolate House for some mouth-watering bespoke inspiration then figure out if the future of PREMIUMIZATION for your industry is bespoke too Hey Puma is already on board -)

Now even though the food and beverage sector definitely leads the PREMIUMIZATION trend theres much more going on

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13 bull13 The Hasbro FurReal Friends Butterscotch Pony seeks to fulfill every little girls dream of having her very own pony From Hasbro ldquoButterscotch is a miniature Shet-land pony with a fur coat and mane that feel just like a real pony Butterscotch also has built-in sensors all over her body which enable her to respond to children in life-like ways If talked to she will cock her head toward the speaker quizzically and blink her eyes She will also react to petting showing her enjoyment by rubbing her head against a child twitching her ears and swishing her tail At over three feet tall Butterscotch is more than strong enough to support a rider up to 80 pounds in weight Along with her brush and carrot Butterscotch comes with a special adoption certificaterdquo Hasbro told Busi-nessWeek that ldquoButterscotch is an attempt to think be-yond the toy industrys usual pricing limits to capture a bigger share of the family budgets that regularly go to iPods and video game consolesrdquo

13 bull13 Portuguese paper products company Renova sells Re-nova Black lauded as the first fashionable toilet paper Price per roll is EUR 217 Renova Black is also available as Renova Red Renova Orange and Renova Green

Emirates First Class private suites

Singapore Airlines Suites

Jet Airways Suite in the Sky

13 bull13 Air travel has become one massive inspiration source for PREMIUMIZATION Were not even going to try to list all the business-class-only carriers that have sprung up some of which are thriving Also keep a close eye on the PREMIUMIZATION pissing match in First involving air-lines like Emirates (First Class private suites) Singa-pore Airlines (12 suites on board of each of its new Air-bus 380s) and Jet Airways (Suite in the Sky)

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13 bull13 The battle continues on terra firma Lufthansa has been operating a dedicated First Class terminal in Frankfurt for a few years now and recently opened a second one in Munchen but got trumped in size and pomp by Qatar Airways Premium Terminal in Doha BTW notice how these exercises in PREMIUMIZATION do wonders for brand and quality perception across the board

13 bull13 Hauzen is Samsungs new premium home appliance brand Products include a washing machine kimchi cooler fridge and air conditioning system Some of the appliances are designed by well-known Korean designer Andre Kim (thats right a premium edition within a pre-mium edition) Not available outside South Korea Yet

13 bull13 The Plantronics Voyager 855 is the first two-in-one ste-reo bluetooth headset with exclusive AudioIQ technology for crystal clear wireless sound Price USD 120

13 bull13 The KABE Royal Tower is a double-decker caravan The 82 meter long camper is 44 meters high allowing people to stand up straight even on the top deck The lower deck features a living room kitchen and breakfast dinette plus a bedroom with single beds while the upper deck has a lounge with an L-shaped sofa and a cocktail cabinet A door from the lounge leads out onto the roof of the front section which serves as a sunbathing terrace The new double-decker caravan is fully equipped with air conditioning on both floors a dishwasher and more Price EUR 105000

13 bull13 Strollers had their PREMIUMIZATION moment a few years ago when Bugaboos and Stokkes burst onto the scene Now car manufacturers like Porsche want a piece of the premium pie their stroller folds up small enough to fit in the luggage compartment of almost all sports cars It comes with pneumatic tires and Carrera S rims for a high-performance ride as well as a lockable front wheel a handbrake and parking brake Price USD 690

13 bull13 Next baby furniture Combining functionality with style Ooba designs cribs and high chairs that are touted by everyone from the curator of MoMA to French magazines that cater to parents who want to help their children de-velop a taste for beautiful objects

13 bull13 Lenovo now offers the ThinkPad Reserve Edition lap-top encased in leather The Reserve Edition is based on the recently released 121-inch Lenovo ThinkPad X61s and comes with Blue-Button Instant Access for instant messaging with dedicated support staff Price USD 5000 sold by invitation only

13 bull13 The Laundress is a collection of high-end fabric deter-gents and care products When Lindsey Wieber a sales executive for Chanel and Gwen Whiting a senior de-signer for Ralph Lauren realized that their expensive clothes were suffering from dry cleaning they took mat-ters into their own hands and created The Laundress Their line of premium fabric care products provides de-tergents for superior fabrics from woolcashmere sham-poo to baby detergent In their own words ldquoAll fabrics are

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differentmdasheverything needs to be treated differently All of our products were developed for a specific reasonrdquo Add-ing to the sense of luxury detergents and care products come in four signature fragrances Classic Cedar Baby and Lady The Laundress range also includes laundry bags and wet swimsuit pouches

13 bull13 British Feature Radiators proudly states ldquoOur collection is made up of the best contemporary designer radiators (including stainless steel radiators) traditional cast iron radiators electric radiators and towel rails on the market With over 150 radiators on display in our showroom ex-pert advice unrivalled customer service and nationwide delivery feature radiators has been recognized the UKs leading radiator specialist And regarding their Trend model Tall and flat-fronted this supermodel in the radia-tor world is an exclusive addition to Feature Radiators contemporary collection Made of lightweight aluminum and created by top Italian designers the Trend not only has a tidy appearance but also has a magnificent heat output Available in classic white and silver metallicrdquo

Clearly the list goes on forever In 2008 no self-respecting brand even those who market the most mundane of commodities will fail to introduce at least one premium version of whatever it is theyre peddling (Candles Did we mention candles yet Check out Ac-qua di Parmas Design Candle Collection priced at a cool USD 130 per candle) If only for the premium profit margins that are involved Is your industry or sector next

SNACK CULTURE represents the transient sphere on steroids catering to consumersʼ insatiable craving for instant gratification SNACK CULTURE thus embodies the phenomenon of prod-ucts services and experiences becoming more temporary and transient products that are being deconstructed in eas-ier to digest easier to afford bits making it possible to col-lect even more experiences as often as possible in an even shorter timeframe The signs are everywhere from ubiquitous commerce to fragmented (shattered) media to fast fashion to temporary ownership to Netflix-style all-you-can-eat models SNACK CULTURE like PREMIUMIZATION is not a new new trend but definitely one that will continue to thrive next year

To get you going hereʼs a list of fairly random SNACK CULTURE spottings that is sure to grow longer in the next 12 months

13 bull13 Food amp Beverage | Some numbers on actual food snacks from the New York Times

13 13 In just three years sales of 100-calorie packs of crackers chips cookies and candy have passed the USD 200-million-a-year mark and sales grew nearly 30 percent last year Accord-ing to analysts the market for these pint-size packages could easily double because of their simple appeal they help consumers eat less without having to count calories themselves The growing popularity of these snack packs may also be another sign that some consumers have had their fill of supersized food

13 13 A report from the Hartman Group found that 29 percent of Americans believed that 100-calorie packages were worth the extra cost For manu-

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facturers snack packs are about 20 percent more profitable than larger packages

13 13 Some snack makers think even 100 calories might be too much for some diet-conscious consumers Hershey for example now sells 60-calorie chocolate bars And Jell-O sells 60-calorie pudding packs

13 bull13 Which then may explain the success of Chicago-based burger joint Minnies which proves that bigger isnt al-ways better Featuring a wide selection of Lilliputian gourmet burgers and sandwichesmdashincluding traditional favorites such as grilled cheese and Reubens alongside the more inventive Mykonos (roast chicken tzatziki sauce and kalamata tapenade) and Thanksgiving Delight (roast turkey cranberries and wild rice gravy)mdashMinnies applies nouvelle cuisine portions to casual dining

13 bull13 Old-school SNACK CULTURE meets PREMIUMIZA-TION in Europe McDonaldʼs is replacing bolted-down yellow-and-white plastic furniture with lime green de-signer chairs and dark leather upholstery It is the restau-rant chainʼs biggest overhaul in more than 20 years and with its franchisees it has spent more than EUR 600 million (USD 890 million) remodeling 1280 European restaurants in 2007

13 bull13 Laundry care | Procter amp Gambleʼs Swash offers stu-dents dryer sheets dewrinkling spray stain-removing pens odor-removing sprays and lint rollers that can help give their clothes the look and smell of having been washed without the trouble or expense of actual washing

13 bull13 Cosmetics | Take a high-margin product like cosmetics and cut prices by at least half Now add online accessibil-ity with customization community and values Throw in a pinch of demystifying expert advice and youve got elf short for eyes lips face Launched by New York-based JA Cosmetics roughly three years ago elf appears to be turning the cosmetics industry on its ear All cosmetics cost just USD 1 and customers can create personalized profiles that generate product recommendations and customized looks elf currently ships only to US and Canadian addresses but versions of the site have re-cently launched for both the UK and Australia The com-pany s products are also available in US stores includ-ing Target and a variety of drugstores and convenience chains

13 bull13 Automotive | Just like bicycles a pretty staid sector suddenly brimming with innovation the small car sector seems ready for a truly global boom Eco-concerns de-sign savvy and an (urban) willingness to regard cars as a utility instead of the ultimate status symbol will lead to a neverending stream of small-car innovations Keep an eye on the company who kick-started most of this Smart Since its introduction in October 1998 nearly 800000 people in 36 countries have purchased a ʻSmart Fortwoʼ The new Smart Fortwo was released in Europe in April 2007 and will become available in the US for the first time in Q1 of 2008 The vehicles will be built at a plant in France and will be equipped for the US market The Smart Fortwo will come in three trim levelsmdasha Pure baseline model that starts under USD 12000 a Passion Coupe that starts under USD 14000 and a convertible

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that starts under USD 17000 Consumers can place a USD 99 refundable reservation for a production model on smartusacom So far more than 30000 reservations have been received

13 bull13 Fast Fashion | Snacks cars magazineshellip And fashion of course If you need to explain SNACK CULTURE to colleagues who may not totally get it (yet) discussing the success of the Zaras and HampMs of this world will proba-bly do the trick Whether itʼs fast fashionʼs fast moving product cycles low prices or SNACK-style ʻwear-only-a-few-times In fact shopping for clothes increasingly re-sembles shopping for groceries

The numbers are impressive HampMʼs turnover in 2006 was SEK 68400000000 (EUR 68 billion) Currently HampM has 1400+ stores in 28 countries Most of its future expansion will take place in the USA Spain Italy Ger-many the UK and Canada In 2007 HampM opened first-time stores in Hong Kong and Shanghai with a Tokyo store planned for fall 2008 Zara is part of Spanish In-ditex which also includes fashion chain Bershka Zaraʼs turnover (EUR 535 billion in 2006) accounts for two-thirds of Inditexʼs turnover (EUR 82 billion in 2006) For the next years the focus of Inditexʼs expansion will be on Europe (outside home market Spain) and on Japan and China Zara had 990 stores in 62 countries at the end of last year and expects to have added another 130-140 before the end of this year

13 bull13 Media | Described as Rocketboom for Wall Street and Squawk Box meets Saturday Night Live Wallstrip of-fers stock advice in a format thats second nature to viewers who watch YouTube instead of CNBC Wallstrips daily videos are taped in New York hosted by actress Lindsay Campbell and feature one public company in every 3-minute online show Wallstrip was founded in October 2006 aiming to be both sassy and serious while teaching a new generation of investors to pick their own stocks The show was created by Howard Lindzon who runs an investment firm and hedge fund in Arizona and a venture capital fund in Toronto Following Lindzons per-sonal investment philosophy the focus is on stocks at all-time highs like Apple Google and Toyota analyzing why theyre strong and whether theyll continue to increase in value Man on the street interviews add to Wallstrips informal vibe The show has been voted one of the top podcasts on iTunes and is also distributed via social video sites like Revver and YouTube With enough VC backing to wait and see how its own value will develop Wallstrip is in no hurry to chase advertising revenues focusing instead on building a dedicated following of valuable eyeballs

Wallstrip perfectly fits what Wired Magazine touted as snack-o-tainment earlier this year (yes that inspired us to come up with SNACK CULTURE) People are becom-ing accustomed to consuming large amounts of bite-size content rather than the longer-form stuff of traditional media Online video clips the iPod Nano pay-per-view TV shows on iTunes short games played on handheld devices the list goes on (do check out MediaSnackers a news site dedicated to this demographic) From Wireds article

ldquoMusic television games movies fashion We now de-vour our pop culture the same way we enjoy candy and chipsmdashin conveniently packaged bite-size nuggets made to be munched easily with increased frequency and

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maximum speed Today media snacking is a way of life In the morning we check news and tap out emails on our laptops At work we graze all day on videos and blogs Back home the giant HDTV is for 10-course feasting - say an entire season of 24 In between are the morsels that fill those whenever minutes as your mobile phone carrier calls them a 30-second game on your Nintendo DS a 60-second webisode on your cell a three-minute podcast on your MP3 player Like Homer Simpson at the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet we are capable of devour-ing whatever is in front of usmdashdown to the plastic crusta-ceansmdashand still go fishing for Colbert clips at 3 am

13 bull13 OK so one more 20 Minutes which distributes more than 23 million copies every weekday in Spain France and Switzerland Forget free newspapers that want 1 hour of your time 20 minutes is all consumers need to get their daily fix

13 bull13 Surprise | Infusing SNACK CULTURE with a dose of surprise Singapore beverage company Out of the Box caters to consumers who respond to What would you like to drink with a non-committal anything or what-ever The company has launched two complementary brands Anything and Whatever Anything is fizzy and comes in six flavors (Cola with Lemon Apple Fizz Up Cloudy Lemon and Root Beer) while Whatever is non-carbonated (Ice Lemon Tea Peach Tea Jasmine Green Tea White Grape Tea Apple Tea Chrysanthemum Tea) The surprise part Consumers don t know which flavor theyre getting until they take a sip Cans are simply la-beled Anything and Whatever and the list of ingredients is limited to generic wording Judging from the buzz on Singapore forums teens immediately got the concept and are loving it Surprise fits SNACK CULTURE well as it satisfies the desire for the thrill for discovery Worth bringing a surprise to market in 2008 even if its just a one-off and even if only for creating a buzz

13 bull13 People | SNACK CULTURE applies to more than con-sumption of goods and services Consider Adult Friend-Finder the ʻcasual encountersʼ site now claiming more than 19 million active members (Real world) sex too has now become something that can be instantly gratified with the help from millions of other ʻwilling and ableʼ par-ticipants The ʻrate before you dateʼ features add a level of TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY too

Note not everything will come in bite-size format If only for the mass-scale infrastructure that is needed to jet off countless ʻsun snackʼ travelers or to ship those millions of containers loaded with SNACK CULTURE goods and ingredients So in addition to the ever-smaller weʼre seeing the ever-bigger In fact biggest of the biggest is going to grab quite a few headlines in 2008 Check out

13 bull13 The Emma Maeligrsk was named in August 2007 at Odense Steel Shipyard Denmark and at 397 meters long 56 meters wide and at 11000 TEU she and her sister vessels are the largest container vessels in the world EMMA MAEligRSK and three of her sister vessels are visiting the following ports Algeciras Bremerhaven Hong Kong Ningbo Rotterdam Suez Canal Tanjung Pelepas Yantian and Xiamen

13 bull13 Singapore Airlines debuted the first of its new A380 airplanes last month Singapore Airlines has configured the aircraft in a 471-seat layout even though it has the potential to hold 853 people in full economy class con-figuration

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings More at wwwtrendwatchingcom 13 13 13 13 13 10 22

TEU stands for twenty-foot equivalent unit a measure of vol-ume based on the size of a container that is twenty feet long by eight feet wide by eight feet high

There will be a total of eight of these mammoth ships with the last one due for delivery to Maeligrsk Line in January 2008

Oh and then we havent even discussed SNACK CULTURE infil-trating banking (ING Direct anyone) or hotels (from Ginger Ho-tels to Yotel to Qbic) Needless to say weʼre truly looking for-ward to your transient SNACK CULTURE innovations in 2008 Let us know so that we can include them in our 2009 overview -)

13 bull13 SNACK CULTURE meets Instant Gratification 20 the growing number of sophisticated SEE-HEAR-BUY serv-ices that enable consumers to instantly purchase any-thing virtual they see or hear Best example to watch in 2008 the iTunes WiFi Music Store How it works when a user hears a particular song playing at his or her local Starbucks heshe can instantly find the artist album and name of the track on his iPhone or iPod Touch By tap-ping the Starbucks button in either devices main menu the current song shows up as well as the last ten songs played They can be purchased and downloaded in-stantly via Starbucks wifi connection

13 bull1313 bull13 Amazoncoms just-launched Kindle a digital book read-

ing device is going after the same market for the written

word with books and (international or niche) paper-based magazines as the most desirable must have right now items (Were not sure about charging for otherwise free blogs though -)

13 bull13 However taking the SEE-HEAR-BUY trend one step further is Midomi anyone whos ever had a song stuck in his or her head (and who hasnt) but was unable to place the title or artist is bound to think Midomi pure gen-ius Users need only sing hum or whistle a few bars into their computer microphones and this online search en-gine can match the tune against its ever-growing musical library The customer then has the option to purchase the track and can connect with others who share the same musical interests Currently available in six languages and with more than two million licensed music tracks and a growing collection of user-created files Midomi still has lots of potential for further enhancements such as allow-ing for customers to call Midomi and download songs directly to their mobile devices

So Whos going to build similar SEE-HEAR-BUY services in 2008 for looking up movies television shows and even commer-cials by just saying a few lines And how will these instant gratifi-cation services further shape expectations among demanding INFOLUSTY consumers More on this in our February 2008 Brief-ing which will highlight the EXPECTATION ECONOMY Stay tuned -)

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Ah the Online Revolution the mega-trend that keeps on giving one that single-handedly dominates the connecting sphere While Web 20 has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy stalwart Web 30 and 40 and 50 guarantee enough motion for this innovation-orgasm to continue uninter-rupted for years to come Five years ago we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this excitement control-craving consumers needing online access as much as they need oxygen

Fast forward to 2008 when we would need a thousand pagesscreens to highlight every noteworthy online sub-trend and Big Idea to watch the Joosts and Androids and Spores and order-ing burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch So instead well look at a few developments that will spread and encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years to come

If theres one device thats going to introduce another few hundred million people to the online world its the phone And yes initia-

tives like Googles Android and their bidding on the 700MHz band and WiMax and so on are definitely going to speed things up We know this is not a new insight and nor will it happen over-night in 2008 but if youre inclined to look beyond 2008 consider this

13 bull13 Right now there are 27 billion mobile phones in use13 bull13 The number of worldwide mobile phone users is ex-

pected to grow to approximately 33 billion in 2011 The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 479 of global subscribers by 2011

13 bull13 Globally nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012 This will rep-resent over 1 billion users

(Sources Juniper EITO MIC Strategy Analytics)

This year will also see a number of initiatives to bring (back) ON-LINE OXYGEN to the last vestiges of offline-ness the pockets of the real world that have managed to keep even regular mobile broadband connections at bay (planes trains and automobiles anyone)

13 bull13 Even though Boeing discontinued its Connexion inflight internet service last year dont count on consumers insa-tiable demand to be online 247 to remain unmet forever In fact the problem wasnt passenger demand the satellite-based service was simply too expensive and too heavy (weight equals cost in aviation) So Lufthansa and American Airlines are among the first airlines to bring back inflight internet later this year Lufthansa is working with T-Mobile to bring back wifi to its planes and will also offer text messaging e-mail and data access for cell phones but not phone calls

American Airlines has signed up with AirCell and will initially test a broadband service on trans-Atlantic flights on its fleet of 767s Virgin America has also teamed up with AirCell to offer broadband internet services for pas-sengers traveling in the continental US sometime this year The service will allow passengers to go online using either Virgin Americas Red inflight entertainment system or their own wifi-enabled devices while in flight Virgin

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America will launch the service across its entire fleet of aircraft

Meanwhile Australian carrier Qantas will offer wifi and electrical outlets on its new A380 and renovated 747-400s in the second half of 2008

13 bull13 European high speed train operator Thalys will soon provide wireless broadband internet access to passen-gers traveling in Comfort 1 and Comfort 2 between Paris Brussels Amsterdam and Cologne It will be the first in-ternational high speed train to provide this service across European borders A consortium consisting of Nokia Siemens Networks satellite operator 21NET and Bel-gium broadband cable operator Telenet will combine satellite GPRS and UMTS technologies with wireless networks similar to wifi hotspots to provide a continuous internet connection on board trains traveling across the borders at speeds of 300 kmh The first Thalys trains equipped with wifi will run commercially in the next few weeks

13 bull1313 bull13 Autonet Mobile is a wireless internet service designed

to maintain seamless connectivity while driving The service turns a car into a wifi hotspot allowing multiple people to connect their own wifi-enabled computers to the internet Autonet runs over both 3G and 25G cellular data networks Users simply plug the in-car router into their cigarette car lighter connect their wifi device(s) and surf the net Autonet Mobile claims to be effective on more than 95 of roads in the US Avis is the first corpo-rate customer of Autonet rebranding the service as Avis Connect Avis Connect is currently available at San Francisco Las Vegas Newark New York LaGuardia Chicago OʼHare and Chicago Midway DallasFt Worth Miami West Palm Beach and Ft Lauderdale airports as well as at a San Francisco Avis office The cost of the Avis Connect service is USD 1095 per day For individ-ual users the equipment will cost USD 399 plus monthly costs

Sometimes the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from ecom-merce Sure its been around for years and years but prepare for a forceful sequel After all never before have so many consum-ers been willing to overcome security threats still shockingly bad (or boring) design and delivery screwups In other words 2008 should be a goldmine for smart e-tailers who if they get their act together could make billions and billions of dollars euros pounds yen kroner lira and rand that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers around the worldSo in the next 12 months spend blood sweat and tears on im-proving your ecommerce presence the pay-off will be immediate and far more substantial than investing in Web 20 me-toos

Well let the numbers do (some of) the talking

13 bull13 Some recent US holiday spending numbers online retail spending hit a record USD733m on Cyber Monday the Monday after Thanksgiving which usually represents the first significant spike in online holiday spending in the US The spend figure increased by 21 on last year and was an 84 jump from the average daily online spending totals during the preceding four weeks according to ComScore More than USD 107bn has been spent on-line during the holiday season covering the first 26 days of November 2007 a 17 increase on the same period last year All in all ecommerce in the US is expected to reap sales of USD 259 billion this year representing an 18 gain over 2006

13 bull13 Forrester estimates that in the US almost USD 400 bil-lion of store sales mdash or 16 of total retail sales mdash are directly influenced by the web as consumers research products online and purchase them offline This will ex-pand at a 17 compounded annual growth rate over the next five years resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012

13 bull13 In the UK online shopping sales exceeded GBP 4 billion a month for the first time in July 2007 On a 12-month basis online sales are up 36 (Source Brand Repub-lic)

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13 bull13 South Koreas ecommerce sales soared more than 26 in 2006 thanks to increased spending on childrens goods fashion and sports-related items Combined ecommerce transactions reached 1345 trillion won (USD 1429 billion) (Source Yonhap)

Now if you want some tried and tested tips and examples of how to make the most of your ecommerce presence in 2008 including collaborative filtering 20 upselling and cross-selling establishing offline outposts for your online brand real world pick-up services luxury e-tailing group buying services and more you will have to purchase the 2008 Trend Report But even if you decide to stick just to this Briefing we hope ECOMMERCE | THE SEQUEL is on your radar now

OK one more ONLINE OXYGEN subtrend if not sub-sub-trend our two cents on social networking As discussed in earlier brief-ings nichification based on interest background affiliation hob-bies travel destinations and so on is now a fact In fact expect experienced social networkers to not only have a Facebook Xing Bebo Linkedin or MySpace profile but to also spend time on smaller networking sites (from Mesh Tennis to Yideoz to Goodreads to Trupoli to KLM Airlines Club China to (soon) DanceJam) when things get well focused

So whats next One thing to watch is social networks of any kind going local if not hyperlocal Neighborhoods Streets Buildings Floors Like many subtrends this one isnt spanking new in fact we dubbed this opportunity NETHOODS (neighborhoods streets and even apartment buildings will get their own inter-net and intranet sites not just to promote the many qualities they have to offer their (prospective) inhabitants but also to provide communal interaction and localized services) in 2003 but sometimes timing is everything and now that network-ing on a grander scale is in place connecting locals if not neigh-bors is just a business opportunity waiting to happen To get you

going heres what our sister publication Springwise New Busi-ness Ideas recently wrote about LifeAt

13 bull13 Launched in March 2007 LifeAt offers property manag-ers a turnkey solution for launching a nethood for their building So far over 335 buildings have joined The property websites are private and password protected for use by residents only Besides offering a platform where residents can meet and communicate sites also allow users to post classified ads and rate and review local businesses In addition property managers post news about vacancies and maintenance work By con-necting people who tend to share not only a building but also similar socioeconomic backgrounds and offering them a source of hyperlocal information LifeAt is creat-ing valuable links between cyberspace and meatspace The concept is likely to find a wider audience now that people of all ages are getting used to sharing information online Free for residents LifeAt charges buildings a one-off fee of around USD 6000 to create and launch a site One to set up in other countries And how about a ver-sion focusing specifically on office buildings Also check o u t N e i g h b o r o l o g y N e i g h b o u r s i e a n d townconnectcom

Yours to run with in 2008 and yes if you do this well (just think of the local advertising opportunities) Google Local or Yellow Pages will buy you Dont forget all politics and business is local -)

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The reason so many people fell for our ECO-FATIGUE spoof last month (rest assured well never spoof anyone again -) is that an eco-backlash is actually quite plausible After all while millions of consumers are firmly rooted in the aforementioned ECO-SPHERE millions of others are not But lets focus on those who are now getting their status fix from consuming in a more sustain-able manner

Over the past few years the ECO trend has moved from ECO-UGLY (ugly over-priced low performance alternatives to shiny traditional sphere products and services) to ECO-CHIC (eco-friendly stuff that actually looks as nice and cool as the less re-sponsible version) to ECO-ICONIC in 2008 Eco-friendly goods and services sporting bold iconic design and markers that help their eco-conscious owners to visibly tout their eco-credentials to peers

So what does ECO-ICONIC look like How about the new Honda FCX Clarity or the Mitsubishi I or the Bahrain World Trade Cen-ter

13 bull13 Hondas FCX Clarity is a fuel cell vehicle that runs on electricity powered by hydrogen and emits only water vapor and heat It will be certified by the California Air Resources Board as a Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) and by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a Tier-2 Bin 1 the lowest possible federal EPA emission rating It will also receive an EPA Inherently Low Emis-sion Vehicle rating due to its entirely sealed fuel system It will qualify for accessing High Occupancy Vehicle lanes

in California with just one person on board As the fuel cell technology was developed by Honda exclusively for the FCX Clarity and was not retrofitted to an existing model Hondas engineers cleared away all precon-ceived notions of automobile design challenging them-selves to discover the new possibilities that can only be realized with the fuel cell vehicle Our verdict the FCX will be more recognizable than the Prius making an even more telling statement about the owners STATUS SPHERE

13 bull13 Another zero-emission car with iconic potential is the Mitsubishi i first exhibited at the 40th Tokyo Motor Show this September From the brochure The fast-back exterior design expresses the quickness of the car with an appearance that is pleasing and lively Geometry metallic materials and body epitomize the futuristic elec-tric vehicle The light green exterior marks another asso-ciation with nature The pearlescent paint which shines when hit with direct light brings feelings of advanced futuristic technology and environmental peace of mind

13 bull13 The Bahrain World Trade Center is the first commercial building in the world to incorporate large-scale wind tur-bines within its design to harness wind power It has

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three massive wind turbines that measure 29 meters in diameter that are supported on bridges between the BWTCʼs two 240 meter high towers The tower structures themselves help funnel the existing on-shore Gulf breeze that is used to generate greater power efficiency Veryhellipiconic

When designing your 2008 or 2009 eco-product line dont mirror whats already out there in the non-eco world but be bold original and yes iconic Whether its cars buildings or detergent bottles Find your own Jonathan Ive (see trend 8 CROWD MINING) and get going

Theres also going to be some serious ECO-EMBEDDED activity taking place in 2008 with governments taking the lead After all corporationsʼ and consumersʼ good intentions donʼt always cut it So expect 2008 to see much more of the fourth R aka regula-tion (remember reduce reuse recycle) For more on this see our 2008 Trend Report

Consider this if consumers value the authentic the practical the exclusive and theyre also forever looking to make life more con-venient even save some time then why persist in bombarding them with your mega-million dollareuropound one-way advertis-ing campaigns Instead of stalking potential and existing custom-ers (which is not very 2008) why not assist them in smart rele-vant ways making the most of your products and whatever it is your brand stands for Remember giving is the new taking -)

Think baby food or diaper brands opening a lounge area including diaper-changing facilities and microwaves for parents and their offspring at a major airport or in malls Or a bank installing secure high-tech lockers next to the beach so beachgoers can safely store their belongings when going for a swim or walk

Now were not branding gurus and were not suggesting that BRAND BUTLERS is the new (or rehashed) lovemark but if the following examples dont inspire you to do something truly useful and new with (a small part of) your advertising budget in 2008 then we dont know what will

13 bull13 Continuing the tradition of using shipping containers to house all things pop-up a spotting from the Netherlands caught our eye At the Lowlands music festival jeans brand Wrangler offered festival-goers a much-needed service laundry At 18 meters wide and 9 meters high the Wrangler Laundromat was hard to miss People dropped off their mud-encrusted laundry and were sent a text message the moment it was ready No change of clothes Wrangler came up with a generous solution to that problem too they handed out black overalls to any-one who used the laundromat Like most other pop-up ventures Wrangler Laundromat is an exercise in experi-ential marketing aimed at surprising and delighting con-sumers in a way that magazine ads or TV spots usually cant

13 bull13 Wrangler isnt the only brand to have tackled dirty laundry at pop festivals In Slovenia home appliance manufac-turer Zanussi-Electrolux has been offering free laundry services at Rock Otočec for several years and has cleaned thousands of muddy t-shirts and jeans After picking up their spotless garments visitors are given a Dear Mom Im clean postcard to send home

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13 bull13 Acknowledging that traveling with infants can be a strain on both parents and children Amsterdams Schiphol Airport opened the Schiphol Babycare Lounge by Nutri-cia last summer (2007) Located in the airports main departure terminal the lounge is (as the name indicates) a co-branding effort by Schiphol and Nutricia a Dutch baby food brand Designed by MV Architects the lounge is serenely stylish and geared to ensuring a babys well-being while en route The 90 m2 area fea-tures seven circular cabins each of which can be closed off with sheer curtains to create a personal zone The booths have comfortable circular seating curving around a crib Lights in the lounge are dimmed for sleeping ba-bies with individual reading lights for parents For infants that need a bit of distraction each booth has a gadget that projects colored lights onto the ceiling just above the crib Other facilities include a changing area baby baths and a microwave for heating food Although Nutricia hasnt stocked a pantry with samples of their own baby food the brand does offer tips on baby nutrition and trav-eling with children The space is open daily from 6 am to 10 pm accessible free of charge to parents and children aged 0ndash3

13 bull13 Also check out Turkish diaper brand Evy Baby which is reaching out to parents by placing changing rooms in Turkish shopping malls The diaper manufacturer has already installed 22 changing rooms in Istanbul Ankara Izmir Antalya Adana and Mersin Each clean and cheer-ful room has a changing table and comfortable chairs for nursing And of course samples of Evy Babys products

13 bull13 More on sanitary stops meeting BRAND BUTLERS Charmin restrooms Due to its success last year (close to 430000 people made use of the service) Procter and Gambles bathroom tissue brand reopened its temporary 20-stall restroom in the heart of Times Square from mid November to end of December 2007 The facilities of-fered clean deluxe bathrooms baby changing stations stroller parking seating areas and of course lots of luxury toilet and bath tissue (including Charmins new product lineup which includes a choice between Ultra Soft and Ultra Strong versions) Specially designed water-conserving toilets and faucets were provided by Kohler while cleanliness was guaranteed by the presence of plenty of bathroom attendants

13 bull1313 bull13 Hotel chain Le Meacuteridien is marketing itself as a destination for art enthusiasts As part of its ldquoUnlock Artrdquo program it has cut deals with local contem-porary cultural institutions to al-low hotel guests free entry by presenting their artist-designed room key cards and it has hired modern art curator Jeacuterocircme Sans

to organize special exhibits Part-ner arts institutions include the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco the Museum of Contemporary Arts (MOCA) in Shanghai the Vienna Succession Nou-veau Museacutee National de Monaco Galleriiizu Contempo-rary Arts Centre in Kuala Lumpur and About StudioAbout Cafeacute in Bangkok Ultimately the goal is for every Le Meacuteridien hotel worldwide to have partnerships with leading cultural institutions

13 bull13 Austrian Airlines offers passengers free entry to cultural institutions in Vienna with their boarding cards Passen-gers traveling with the airline can keep the tear-off stub from their used boarding cards (along with a photo ID) for free entry to five museums in Vienna

Again there is no brand that cannot apply the BRAND BUTLERS trend in 2008 Being relevant (gasp) assisting and facilitating po-tential and existing customers when they truly appreciate it (as

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opposed to inundating them with advertising) will go down well Promise More examples in our 2008 Trend Report

Lets have a more in-depth look at the participation sphere For years weve been going on about GENERATION C with the C mainly representing content In other words digital creation Pic-tures Movies Blogs Music

Its a mainstream trend now one that keeps giving with millions of consumers uploading their creative endeavors online and tens of millions of others enjoying the fruits of their creativity User-generated content at least in the online world has grown from a teenage hobby to an almost equal contender to established enti-ties in news media entertainment and craft

And yes as predicted GENERATION C is increasingly being re-warded for its output In fact with some members of GENERA-TION C attracting mass audiences theres real money to be made In its first year video sharing site Revver which matches every video uploaded with advertisements and splits the ad reve-nue 5050 with the videos creator and then shares 20 off the top with the videos distributor has paid USD 1 million to video crea-tors and sharers

So whats next for GENERATION C With (in particular younger) consumers having come to expect to be able to create anything they want as long as it is digital and to customize and personalize many physical goods the next frontier will be digitally designing products from scratch then having them turned into real physical goods as well In fact expect MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF (and then SIY | SELL IT YOURSELF) ventures to become increasingly sophisticated in the next 12 months

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13 bull13 New Zealand-based Ponoko (which works like a CafePress for 3D objects) is offering consumers a new way to turn their creative ideas into real-world objects After uploading their own design to the website (in EPS file format) or choosing a free design users can choose from a variety of materials Ponoko then runs the design through a laser cutter Besides offering access to profes-sional tools to manufacture products Ponoko also helps users bring their products to market Once theyʼre ready to sell members can add photos of their product to their profile page together with a description and pricing in-formation Products can either be delivered to the de-signer for assembly before being shipped to customers or self-assembly products can be sent directly to the end-customer Ponoko currently only offers two-dimensional sheet cutting which limits designs to flat objects or three-dimensional objects that can be assembled from flat pieces but plans for 3D printing are in the works

As well as being a manufacturing platform Ponoko also serves as a community where fledgling one-off fabrica-tors and designers can exchange ideas and help solve each otherʼs problems The larger goal according to Ponoko is to be a catalyst that helps bring personal manufacturing of individualized products to the masses

13 bull13 Swedish design group FRONT has launched Sketch Furniture which is a method to materialize freehand sketches Pen strokes made in the air are recorded with Motion Capture and the resulting 3-D patterns are output digitally to a laser sintering machine Over several days the machine produces the object by shaping and harden-ing 01-mm layers of liquid plastic Sketch Furniture is on view and on sale (about USD 10500 per piece) at the Barry Friedman Gallery in New York

13 bull13 Fab Lab Bcn (Barcelona) is part of the worldwide net-work of Fab Labs an initiative of MIT Center for Bits and Atoms and provides a laser-cutter water jet 3D printer mini-mill and other machines for participants to use Fab Lab Bcns 4x8 Workshops focus on creating objects from 4x8 feet sheets of plywood using digital tools One of Fab Labs initiators is Neil Gershenfeld professor at MIT and author of FAB The Coming Revolution on Your Desktop

Other Fab Labs have been opened in rural India north-ern Norway Ghana Boston and Costa Rica

Even sweeter Designing something and then have it made at home (which reminds us of INSPERIENCES)

13 bull13 The Desktop Factory 3D printer with a list price of USD 4995 uses an inexpensive halogen light source and drum printing technology to build robust parts from composite plastic powder layer by layer Desktop Fac-tory envisages that within three years Desktop Factorys 3D printers will be affordable for home use

Now were not saying every consumer is going to design and manufacture his or her own furniture or appliances Rather MIY is yet another piece of the participation puzzle enabling those con-sumers who feel like it to call the shots bypassing traditional play-ers In future briefings weʼll address the implications of what this choice ndash being able to consume ready-made or create their own versions of anything and everything ndash will mean for the behavior and expectations of younger generations

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No Not another crowd-esque trend Dont worry CROWD MIN-ING is simply a moniker for how we see crowd-based business concepts evolving in 2008 But first lets take a look at some of the crowd pleasers we enjoyed tracking this year

13 bull13 Remember SellaBand which lets fans sponsor unknown bands and artists by buying the bands shares or parts (Once a band has raised USD 50000 by selling 5000 parts SellaBand sets up a professional recording ses-sion The recorded songs are sold to new fans and both the artists and owners of their parts (Believers) receive a share of the income generated through music sales and advertising revenues) Theyre certainly having fun a few weeks ago Believers who own parts in Cubworld Nemesea Second Person and Maitreya received their first payout which was transferred to their Believer Bal-ance While the first payout wasnt massive (in Sella-Bands words Enough to buy a beer at the pub or maybe even a round or two) its a sign that SellaBands crowdfunding and crowdrewarding model is working as planned Ad revenues are expected to grow over the next few months as SellaBand is working on deals with media agencies for countries outside their main three mar-ketsmdashthe Netherlands United States and United King-dom One to watch this year

13 bull13 MyFootballClub which launched in May 2007 recently announced that theyve agreed to buy a controlling stake in Ebbsfleet United FC with the option to buy the the remaining share in the future To refresh your memory in less than three months MyFootballClub signed up 50000 people willing to pay a GBP 35 membership fee to buy and manage a soccer team with a crowd of other dedicated fans MyFootballClub members will vote on player selection transfers and all other major decisions When it got down to picking a team to buy MyFootball-Club was approached by nine football club owners and also sought contact with several others Some of the crowds favorite clubs didnt make the cut because they had too much debt or were too regional One of the rea-sons for picking Ebbsfleet United is that it stands a good

chance to reach the national Football League Well defi-nitely keep score of this one in 2008

13 bull13 P2P banking pioneers Zopa and Prosper are still doing well in fact P2P banking is an excellent example of how fast a new concept can spread and also how much op-portunity remains in turning consumers into mini-banks Quick recap peer-to-peer lending marketplaces allow people to lend money directly to others cutting out banks and other middlemen Which means better interest rates for borrowers and higher returns for lenders Described as eBay for loans the P2P money exchanges work as follows borrowers list loan details and a personal profile and lenders bid on the loan Lowest interest rates win Lenders bid in increments and minimize their risk by bid-ding on numerous loans A study by Online Banking Re-port predicts that by 2011 person-to-person lending in the US could surpass 100000 loans a year worth more than USD 1 billion Unlike eBay which can connect buyers and sellers from around the world peer-to-peer lending is generally bound by local financial regulations Which means theres ample room for national or regional ver-sions Besides Zopa and Prosper hereʼs what was out there last time we looked from the promising to the ob-scure and from the established to ʻcoming soonʼ

13 13 Smava13 13 elollyde13 13 PPdai13 13 Circle Lending13 13 Lendary13 13 Boober13 13 CommunityLend13 13 Peermint13 13 Lending Club13 13 Wiseclerkcom13 13 Fairrates13 13 Nexx13 13 GlobeFunder13 bull13

So lots of innovation going on yet thereʼs plenty of room for a second player in all of these markets and dozens of countries donʼt yet have a P2P banking brand And what about the many other financial concepts wait-ing to be explored from crowd investments (check out You Be The VC) to insurance plays Will more consum-ers become comfortable with these concepts Will big banks step in This one too is all yours in 2008 -)

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Now lets go back to CROWD MINING when co-creating co-funding co-buying co-designing co-managing anything with crowds the emphasis in 2008 will move from just getting the masses in to mining those crowds for the rough and polished diamonds How to do that Shower them with love respect and heaps of money of course Two examples from Netflix and Goo-gle setting the standards for CROWD MINING in the year to come

13 bull13 Still going strong Netflix the DVD rental site is offering a Grand Prize of USD 1 million to the individual who can substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about how much someone is going to love a movie based on their movie preferences From their site (great copy if you ever want to set up something similar for your own brand) ldquoNetflix is all about connecting people to the mov-ies they love To help customers find those movies weʼve developed our world-class movie recommendation sys-tem Cinematch Now there are a lot of interesting alter-native approaches to how Cinematch works that we havenʼt tried Weʼre curious whether any of these can beat Cinematch by making better predictions So we thought weʼd make a contest out of finding the answer Itʼs easy really We provide you with a lot of anonymous rating data and a prediction accuracy bar that is 10 better than what Cinematch can do on the same training data set If you develop a system that we judge most beats that bar on the qualifying test set we provide you get serious money and the bragging rights But (and you knew there would be a catch right) only if you share your method with us and describe to the world how you did it and why it works To keep things interest-ing in addition to the Grand Prize weʼre also offering a USD 50000 Progress Prize each year the contest runs It goes to the team whose system we judge shows the most improvement over the previous yearʼs best accu-racy bar on the same qualifying test set No improve-ment no prizeTo keep things transparent progress can be monitored on an online leaderboard So far more than 27000 con-testants from 161 countries have submitted their guesses with the winner for 2007 being Team KorBell for their October 2007 submission achieving an 843 im-provement over Cinematch which netted them the USD 50000 Progress Prize Now they got close but not close enough which means the USD 1 million grand prize is still up for grabs -)

13 bull1313 bull13 The Open Handset Alliances most prominent member

Google is developing Android the first complete open and free mobile platform To support the quest for apps that surprise and delight mobile users to be created by developers around the world Google has launched the Android Developer Challenge which will provide USD 10 million in awards for innovative applications The first part of the challenge (submissions are accepted from January 2 through March 3 2008) will reward 50 entries with USD 25000 to fund further development Those selected will then be eligible for even greater recognition via ten USD 275000 awards and ten USD 100000 awards

So Whats your brands biggest challenge (or opportunity) and what kind of dough would you be willing to dole out to have bril-liant crowds solve it for you in 2008

Enjoy these free briefingsThen you will love our 2OO9 Trend Report

More at wwwtrendwatchingcomtrendreport raquo

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings More at wwwtrendwatchingcom 13 13 13 13 13 21 22

Sure theres much much more in 2008 thats worthy of your attention But for now take any of the eight trends above sit down with your colleagues andor clients and figure out how to come up with at least

13 bull13 one new premium product13 bull13 one snack version of an existing product13 bull13 two or three major tweaks to your ecommerce presence13 bull13 one eco-iconic innovation13 bull13 two or three marketing campaigns that are about aiding

consumers not stalking them13 bull13 one MIY concept13 bull13 one campaign to ask the rest of the world for help with at

least one of your companys major opportunities or chal-lenges

For some help dont forget our How to Apply Trends checklist

13 113 VisionmdashDo these trends have the potential to influence or shape your companys vision

13 213 New business conceptsmdashCan these trends point you to new business concepts or entirely new ventures

13 313 New products services experiencesmdashCan these trends inspire you to add something new for a certain customer segment

13 413 Marketing advertising PRmdashWill these trends help you speak the language of those consumers that are already living a trend

For more tips on how to apply trends please check out our Trend Tips section

And heymdashwere counting on the entrepreneurs amongst you to turn some of these predictions into self-fulfilling prophecies before 2009

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trendwatchingcom is an independent and opinionated consumer trends firm relying on a global network of 8000 spotters working hard to deliver inspiration and pangs of anxiety to business professionals in 120+ countries worldwideMore information at wwwtrendwatchingcom