'. t'-"

I I

aware that teacheexpectations abou

individual children becoself-fulfilling propheciesa teacher believes a childslow, the child will com^ht'lieve that, too, and wil

eed learn slowly. Theky child who strikes i" '^r as bright also pi<

_̂ _,_ chat expectation awill rise to fulfill it. Thisfinding has been confirnfso many times, and in siivaried settings, that it's ilonger even debated.

EMPLOYEES?ÍTlROM YOUR

ECT THE BEST.

24 INFONOMICS I MAy.|UN£.O9 www.infonomicsm3g.com

BY I. STERLING LIVINGSTON

EDITOR'S NOTE: The foilowing article has been eKcerpted from what was originally published in 1969 by the Harvard Business Review [HBR). In the years since, it has climbed to the

number two position of most popular HBR "Management Classics" reprints.

Self-fulfilling prophecies, ¡t turns out.are just as prevalent in offices as they arein elementary school classrooms. If a man-ager is convinced that the people in hergroup are first-rate, they'll reliably outper-form a group whose manager believes thereverse—even if the innate talent of the twogroups is similar.

The powerful influence of one person'sexpectations on another's behavior haslong been recognized by physicians andbehavioral scientists. But heretofore theimportance of managerial expectationsfor individual and group performancehas not been widely understood. I havedocumented this phenomenon in a numberof case studies prepared during the pastdecade for major industrial concerns.These cases and other evidence availablefrom scientific research now reveal:

• What managers expect of subordinatesand the way they treat them largelydetermine their performance and careerprogress.

• A unique characteristic of superiormanagers is the ability to create highperformance expectations that subordi-nates fulfill.

• Less effective managers fail to developsimilar expectations, and as a con-sequence, tbe productivity of theirsubordinates suffers.

• Subordinates, more often than not.appear to do what tbey believe tbey areexpected to do.

IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITYOne of the most comprehensive illus-trations of the effect of managerialexpectations on productivity is recorded instudies of tbe organizational experimentundertaken by Alfred Oberländer, man-ager of the Rockaway district office of theMetropolitan Life Insurance Company. Hehad observed that outstanding insuranceagencies grew faster than average or pooragencies and that new insurance agentsperformed better in outstanding agenciestban in average or poor agencies, regard-

less of their sales aptitude. He decided,therefore, to group his superior agents inone unit to stimulate their performanceand to provide a challenging environmentin which to introduce new salespeople.

Accordingly, Oberlander assignedhis six best agents to work with his bestassistant manager, an equal number ofaverage producers to work with an aver-age assistant manager, and the remaininglow producers to work with the leastahie manager. He then asked the supe-rior group to produce two-thirds of thepremium volume achieved by the entireagency during the previous year. Hedescribes the results as follows:

"Shortly after this selection had beenmade, the people in the agency began refer-ring to this select group as a "super-staff'because of tbeir bigb esprit de corps inoperating so well as a unit. Their productionefforts over the first 12 weeks far surpassedour most optimistic expectations... provingthatgroupsofpeopleof sound ability can bemotivated beyond their apparently normalproductive capacities when the problemscreated by the poor producers are elimi-nated from the operation.

"Thanks to this fine result, our overallagency performance improved by 40 per-cent, and it remained at this figure.

"In the beginning of [the next year]when, through expansion, we appointedanother assistant manager and assignedhim astaff, we again used this sameconcept, arranging the agents once moreaccording to their productive capacity.

"The assistant managers wereassigned . . . accordingto their ability,with the most capahle assistant managerreceiving the best group, thus playingstrength to strength. Our agency overallproduction again improved by about 25percent to 30 percent, and so this staffarrangement remained in place until theend of the year.

"Now in thisyearof 1963, we found uponanalysis that there were so many agents . . .withapotentialof half a million dollars ormore that only one staff remained of those

THE POWER OFEXPECTATIONSOr lack Thereof

Managers cannot avoid the de-

pressing cycle of events that flow

from low expectations merely by

hiding their feelings from subor-

dinates. If managers believe sub-

ordinates will perform poorly, it

is virtually impossible for them to

mask their expectations because

the message usually is commu-

nicated unintentionally, without

conscious action on their part.

Indeed, managers often com-

municate most when they believe

they are communicating least, For

instance, when they say nothing-

become cold and uncommunica-

tive-it usually is a sign that they

are displeased by a subordinate

or believe that he or she is hope-

less. The silent treatment com-

municates negative feelings even

more effectively, at times, than a

tongue-lashing does.

What seems to be critical in

the communication of expec-

tations is not what the boss

says so much as the way he or

she behaves. Indifferent and

noncommittal treatment, more

often than not, is the kind of

treatment that communicates

low expectations and leads to

poor performance.

www.infonomicsmag.com MAY.JUNE.09 I INFONOMICS 25

PYGMALION IN MANAGEMENT

What workers doin response to lowself-esteem

HWTOR'S NOTE: The following text refers to astudy conducted long before the current bankingcrisis and must be understood in that light.

Unsuccessful salespersons have greatdifficulty maintaining their self-imageand self-esteem. In response to lowmanagerial expectations, they typicallyattempt to prevent additional damageto their egos by avoiding situationsthat might lead to greater failure.

They either reduce the number ofsales calls they make or avoid tryingto close sales when that might resultin further painful rejection, or both.Low expectations and damaged egoslead them to behave in a manner thatincreases the probability of failure,thereby fulfilling their managers'expectations. Let me illustrate:

Not long ago I studied the effec-tiveness of branch bank managersat a West Coast bank with over 500branches. The managers who hadhad their lending authority reducedbecause of high rates of loss becameprogressively less effective.

To prevent further loss of author-ity, they turned to making only "safe"loans. This action resulted In lossesof business to competing banks anda relative decline in both depositsand profits at their branches. Then, toreverse that decline in deposits andearnings, they often "reached" for loansand became almost irrational in theiracceptance of questionable credit risks.

Their actions were not so mucha matter of poor judgment as anexpression of their willingness to takedesperate risks in the hope of beingable to avoid further damage to theiregos and to their careers.

people in the agency who were not con-sidered to have any chance of reaching thehaif-miiliün-dollar mark."

Although the productivity of the super-stafTimproved dramatically, it shouldbe pointed nut that the productivity ofthose in the lowest unit, "who were notconsidered to have any chance of reachingthe half-million-dollar mark." actuallydeclined, and that attrition among themincreased. The performance of the supe-rior agents rose to meet their managers'expectations, while that of the weaker onesdeclined as predicted.

SELF-FULFIUING PROPHECIESThe "average" unit, however, proved to bean anomaly. Aithough the district managerexpected only average performance fromthis group, its productivity increased sig-nificantly. This was because the assistantmanager in charge of the group refused tobelieve that she was less capable than themanager of the superstaff or that the agentsin the top group had any greater abilitythan the agents in her group. As a result,each year the middle group increased itsproductivity by a higher percentage thanthe superstaff did (although it did notattain the dollar volume of the top group).

The influence of one person's expecta-tions on another's hehavior is by no meansa business discovery. More than half a cen-tury ago. Albert Moll concluded from hisclinical experience that subjects behavedas they believed they were expected to. Thephenomenon he observed, in which "theprophecy causes its own fulfillment," hasbecome the suhject of considerable scien-tific interest. For example:

• In a series of scientific experiments.Robert Rosenthal of Harvard Univer-sity has demonstrated that a "teacher'sexpectation for a pupil's intellectualcompetence can come to serve as an edu-cational self-fulfilling prophecy."

• An experiment in a summer Headstartprogram for 60 preschoolers comparedthe performance of pupils under (a)teachers who bad been led to expect rel-atively slow learningby their children,and (b) teachers who had been led toheiieve that their children had excellentintellectual ability and learningcapacity.Pupils of the second group of teacherslearned much faster.

Moreover, the healing professions have longrecognized that a physician's or psychiatrist'sexpectations can have a formidable influenceon a patient's physical or mental health.

COMMON ILLUSIONSManagers are more effective in com-municating low expectations to theirsubordinates than in communicating highexpectations to them, even though mostmanagers believe exactly the opposite. Itusually is astonishingly difficult for themto recognize the clarity with which theytransmit negative feelings.

Positive feeling, on the other hand, oftenare not communicated clearly enough.Another insurance agency manager copiedthe organizational changes made at theRtickaway district office, grouping thesalespeople she rated highly with the bestmanager, the average salespeople with anaverage manager, and so on. Improvement,however, did not result from the move.

The Rockaway district managertherefore investigated the situation. Hediscovered that the assistant manager incharge of the high-performance unit wasunaware that his manager considered himto be the best. In fact, he and the otheragents doubted that the agency managerreally believed there was any difference intheir abilities. This agency manager wasa stolid, phlegmatic, unemotional womanwho treated her agents in a rather pedes-trian way.

Since high expectations had not beencommunicated to them, they did not under-stand the reason for the new organizationand could not see any point in it. Clearly,the way managers treat subordinates, notthe way they organize them, is the key tohigh expectations and high productivity.

IMPOSSIBLE DREAMSManagers' high expectations must pass tbetestof reality before they can be translatedinto performance. To become self-fulfillingprophecies, expectations must be madeof sterner stuff than the power of positivethinking or generalized confidence in one'ssubordinates—helpful as these conceptsmay be for some other purposes. Subordi-nates wi l l not be motivated to reach highlevels of productivity unless they considerthe boss' high expectations realistic andachievable. I f they are encouraged to strivefor unattainable goals, they eventually give

26 INFONOMICS I MAV.IUNE.09 www ¡nfonomicsmag.com

up trying and settle for results that arelow er than they are capable of achieving.

THE CRITICAL EARLY YEARSManagerial expectations have their mostmagical influence on young people. Assubordinates mature and gain experience,their self-image gradually hardens, andthey begin to see themselves as their careerrecords imply. Their own aspirations andthe expectations of their superiors becomeincreasingly controlled by the "reality" oftheir past performance. It becomes moreand more difficult for them and for theirmanagers to generate mutually high expec-tations unless they have outstanding records.

Incidentally, the same pattern occursin school. Rosenthal's experiments witheducational self-fulfilling propheciesconsistently demonstrate that teachers'expectations are more effective in influenc-ing intellectual growth in younger childrenthan in older children. In the lower gradelevels, particularly in the first and secondgrades, the effects of teachers' expectationsare dramatic. In the upper grade levels.teachers' prophecies seem to have littleeffect on children's intellectual growth.although they do affect their motivationand attitude toward school.

KEY TO FUTURE PERFORMANCEThe early years in a business organiza-tion, when young people can be stronglyinfluenced by managerial expectations, arecritical in determining future performanceand career progress.

In their study at AT&T, Berlew and Hallconcluded that the correlation between howmuch a company expects of an employee inthe first year and how much that employeecontributes during the next five years was"too (.(impelling to be ignored."

Subsequently, the two men studied thecareer records of 18 college graduates whowere hired as management trainees inanother of AT&T's operating companies.Again they found that both expectations andperformance in the first year correlated con-sistently with later performance and success.

"Something important is happeningin the first year ...," Rerlew and Hallconcluded. "Meeting high company expec-tations in the critical first year leads to theinternalization of positive job attitudes andhigh standards; these attitudes and stan-dards, in turn, would first lead to and be

SUPERIOR MANAGERS AND"SWEENEY'S MIRACLE":The janitor with a low IQ who was turnedinto a successful computer programmer

Something takes place in the minds of superior managers that does not occur in the mindsof those who are less effective. While superior managers are consislently able to create highperformance expectations that their subordinates fulfill, weaker managers are not successfulin obiainmg a similar response. What accounts for the difference?

The answer, in part, seems to be that superior managers have greater confidence than oth-er managers in their own ability to develop the talents of their subordinates. The importanceof what a manager believes about his or her training and motivational ability is illustrated by"Sweeney's Miracle," a managerial and educational self-fulfilling prophecy.

lames Sweeney taught industrial management and psychiatry at Tulane University, and healso was responsible for the operation of the Biomédical Computer Center there. Sweeneybelieved that he could teach even a poorly educated man to be a capable computer operator.George Johnson, a former hospital porter, became janitor at the computer center; he waschosen by Sweeney to prove his conviction. In the mornings. Johnson performed his janito-rial duties, and in the afternoons Sweeney taught him about computers.

Johnson v̂ ias learning a great deal about computers when someone at the university con-cluded that to be a computer operator one had to have a certain IQ score. Johnson was tested,and his IQ indicated that he would not be able to learn to type, much less operate a computer.

But Sweeney was not convinced. He threatened to quit unless Johnson was permitted tolearn to program and operate the computer. Sweeney prevailed, and he is still running thecomputer center. Johnson is now in charge of the main computer room and is responsible fortraining new employees to program and operate the computer.

Sweeney's expectations were based on what he believed about his own teaching ability, noton Johnson's learning credentials. What managers believe about their ability to train and motivatesubordinates clearly is the foundation on which realistically high managerial expectations are built.

reinforced by strong performance and suc-cess in later years.

ASTUTE SELECTrONFor top executives in industry who areconcerned with organizational productivityand the careers of young employees, thechallenge is ciear: to speed the developmentof managers who will treat subordinatesin ways that lead to high performance andcareer satisfaction. Managers not only shapethe expectations and productivity of sub-ordinates but also influence their attitudestoward their jobs and themselves.

If managers are unskilled, they leave scarson the careers of young people, cut deeplyinto their self-esteem, and distort their

image of themselves as human beings. But ifthey are skillful and have high expectations,subordinate.s' self-confidence will grow.their capabilities will develop, and their pro-ductivity will be high. More often than onerealizes, the manager is Pygmalion. I

Copyright © 2002 Harvard Business SchoolPublishing Corporation. All rights resetred.

J. STERLING L IV INGSTON served on the faculty ofHarvard Business School from 1941 to 1971. He founded theSterling Institute, a management consulting firm special-izing in executive training and development, in 1967 andserved as chairman of the Washington. DC-based instituteunlil 199B. He is currently establishing ttie Sterling Centerfor Applied Managerial Leadership in Key Biscayne, Florida.

www.mfonomicsmag.com MAY.IUNE.09 I INFONOMICS 27