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  • 7/29/2019 564report Web Adherence Capgem Healthprize

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    Estimated Annual Pharmaceutical Revenue LossDue to Medication Non-Adherence

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    Executive Summary

    Medication non-adherence is one o the most serious problems in healthcare, posing

    a heavy fnancial impact on all constituencies. On the cost side, the New England

    Healthcare Institute estimated that medication non-adherence is responsible or

    $290 billion in otherwise avoidable medical spending in the US alone each year. 30

    On the pharmaceutical revenue side, however, the impact o medication non-

    adherence had yet to be accurately quantifed. The market assumption relied upon

    to date, and quoted extensively, has been $30 billionglobally,8,10 which we elt was

    a gross underestimateprompting this project. Our report represents the most

    accurate estimate o pharmaceutical revenue loss due to medication non-adherence.

    According to our analysis, the US pharmaceutical industry alone loses an estimated

    $188 billion annually due to medication non-adherence. This represents 59% o the

    $320 billion in total US pharmaceutical revenue in 2011 and 37% o the $508 billion

    annualpotentialtotal revenue.

    Extrapolated to the global pharmaceutical market, revenue loss is estimated to be

    $564 billion, or 59% o the $956 billion in total global pharmaceutical revenue in 2011

    and 37% o the $1,520 billion annualpotentialtotal revenue.

    Interventions to improve medication adherence should be top priority or the

    pharmaceutical industry and will prove benefcial to all stakeholders. Increasing

    adherence rates by only 10 percentage points would translate into a $41 billion

    pharmaceutical revenue opportunity in the US ($124 billion globally), accompanied by

    improved health outcomes and decreased healthcare spending.

    Thomas ForissierPrincipal, Capgemini Consulting

    Katrina Firlik, MDChie Medical Ofcer,

    HealthPrize Technologies

    2

    Lead Authors

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    Introduction 4

    Methods & Assumptions5

    Estimate of Revenue Loss 11

    Implications 15

    About the Authors and Contributors 16

    References 17

    About Capgemini and Capgemini Consulting & HealthPrize Technologies 20

    Contents

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    Introduction

    Medication non-adherence is one o the most serious problems in healthcare, posing

    a heavy fnancial impact on all constituencies. For insurers, employers, and patients,

    non-adherence signifcantly increases healthcare costs as a result o disease-related

    complications. For pharmaceutical companies, pharmacies, and pharmacy benefts

    managers, non-adherence signifcantly erodes proft due to prescriptions never flled

    and medications not taken oten enough.

    Although not the ocus o this report, non-adherence is also to blame or immense

    personal and societal costs beyond the fnancial, in the orm o poor health outcomes,

    untimely death, lost productivity, and compromised quality o lie. These downstream

    eects are particularly tragic given their preventability.

    On the cost side, the magnitude o this fnancial impact is staggering. In 2009, the New

    England Healthcare Institute estimated that medication non-adherence is responsible or

    $290 billion in otherwise avoidable medical spending in the US alone each year. 6

    However, on the revenue side, prior to this report, the impact o medication non-

    adherence had yet to be accurately quantifed. To date, the rough estimate quoted widely

    in industry and analyst reports, and in the pharmaceutical press, is $30 billion in lost

    pharmaceutical revenue per year globally, a statistic widely attributed to a 2006 report,8

    but actually originating rom a 2004 report.10 However, even a cursory back o the

    napkin calculation suggests that this number must be a gross under-representation o

    the problem. It clearly looms larger, given what is known about typical adherence rates,

    particularly or patients taking medications or chronic conditions. Our desire to set the

    record straight, combined with the act that the $30 billion statistic remains widely quoted,was the impetus or this current report.

    This report represents the most accurate estimate to date o annual pharmaceutical

    revenue loss due to medication non-adherence. Although the estimation process

    was driven by a set o assumptionsnecessary given a lack o complete data in all

    therapeutic areas, both on the adherence side and on the pharmaceutical revenue side

    the assumptions were careully thought out and inormed by the best and most recent

    intelligence available. Future estimates may be more accurate in the presence o more

    data, but or the time being, this report represents the most careul process to date.

    The majority o modern, large-scale adherence studiesones specifcally based on

    objective pharmacy claimshave been ocused on the United States. Given this ocus,

    our revenue loss estimate was perormed specifcally or the United States market, with a

    simple extrapolation then extended to the global market. Although such an extrapolation

    is admittedly simplistic, it is likely to be reasonably accurate. According to a recent IMS

    report, adherence in developing countries is similar to adherence in the United States and

    other developing countries.23

    Given the growing interest among pharmaceutical companies in exerting a greater

    influence in promoting better outcomesand in selling wellness in addition to

    medicationa ocus on medication adherence is a natural ft. In this setting, a more

    accurate estimate o the impact o non-adherence on proft can serve as urther motivation

    to allocate resources accordingly and perhaps as stimulus or a greater sense o urgency.

    Important to emphasize, pharmaceutical-industry sponsorship o adherence interventionsare not simply sel-serving (as in, greater adherence = greater sales), even i potentially

    construed in that light by a poorly inormed public or press. Improved medication

    adherence represents a clear win-win or all constituencies in healthcare, not only or

    insurers and employers, but alsoand most importantlyor patients.

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    Methods & Assumptions

    For this project, we ocused on

    medications or chronic conditions.

    The bulk o pharmaceutical proft

    loss, as well as increased healthcare

    spending, is due to poor adherence

    to medications or common chronic

    conditions such as hypertension,

    diabetes, and high cholesterol. Non-

    adherence to medications or acute

    conditions would obviously increase

    the estimate o annual pharmaceutical

    proft loss, but we cannot speculate

    with accuracy as to the magnitude o

    that incremental loss, especially given

    that adherence data are lacking in this

    area. For our analysis, then, we simply

    assumed that adherence to acute

    medications is 100%. In addition, we

    needed to make educated assumptions

    regarding what percentage o each

    chronic therapeutic area is sel-

    administered on an outpatient basis

    (in other words, taken by the patient

    at home) and, thereore, subject to

    non-adherence.

    Among chronic conditions, we

    examined the top 100 therapeutic areas

    based upon 2011 US pharmaceutical

    revenue data. Adherence data across

    these therapeutic areas were gathered

    rom published studies in the medical

    literature. Although thousands o

    articles on medication non-adherence

    have been published over the past ew

    decades, we determined that the vast

    majority were either unreliable in terms

    o methodology, out o date, or lessrelevant or various reasons, such as a

    third-world ocus.

    We ollowed a strict set o criteria or

    inclusion o a study in our database.

    First, the source o adherence data

    had to include pharmacy claims

    objective refll dataleading to one

    or more o the ollowing standard

    adherence measurements: medication

    possession ratio (MPR) or proportion

    o days covered (PDC). Pharmacy

    claims are typically accessed via apharmacy itsel, an insurance carrier,

    or a pharmacy benefts manager.

    Given the nature o these studies

    and their reliance on the analysis o

    large-scale databases, the studies we

    included were relatively recent, rom

    2003 through 2012 (only one study was

    older), with the vast majority o studies

    published since 2008.

    Study durations ranged rom 6 months

    to 36 months, although only 2 studies

    were shorter than 12 months (one was

    6 months and one was 8 months). Most

    studies included thousands o patients;some had tens o thousands. The

    smallest study included 267 patients

    with chronic myeloid leukemia.

    We excluded studies that were based

    on patient sel-reporting or on various

    orms o pill tracking (manual pill

    counts, electronic pill boxes, or other).

    Such studies are oten compromised

    by shorter durations, smaller sample

    sizes, unreliable data, and by the act

    that patients in these studies typically

    know that they are being observed,which can artifcially raise adherence

    rates (the Hawthorne eect).

    Studies based on pharmacy claims

    are more reliable in that they are

    a more accurate reflection o

    behavior in the real world (not as

    part o a study or intervention) and

    occur over longer time periods.

    Furthermore, contemporary adherence

    researchers have become increasingly

    sophisticated in their methodology,

    using techniques to control or variablesthat have previously led to inaccurate

    adherence data. Examples o such

    variables include patients who switch

    pharmacies or insurance companies

    or switch medications within the

    same therapeutic class (which may

    or may not be considered non-

    adherence, depending upon whether

    the perspective is that o a specifc

    pharmaceutical brand or the industry

    as a whole).

    For purposes o this project, weconsidered the two standard

    measurements o MPR and PDC to

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    be sufciently equivalent and did not

    attempt to adjust either. Adherence

    researchers tend to become amiliar

    with one or the other, and there is

    not yet a gold standard in the feld.

    Technically, MPR does have a slight

    tendency to overestimate adherence

    in the event that selected patients

    repeatedly refll early (leading to a

    double counting o days), but this

    tendency is not consideredby most

    at leastto be o signifcant concern.

    An important variable in estimating

    revenue loss is the need to include

    statistics regarding primary non-

    adherence, otherwise known as

    nonulfllment, or frst-fll non-

    adherence which means that a patient

    never flls even the frst prescription and

    thereore has an adherence rate (MPR

    or PDC) o 0%, or a persistence o 0

    months on therapy. However, given that

    this orm o non-adherence is difcult

    to track in the absence o electronic

    prescribing (you cant track paper

    prescriptions), inclusion o this variable

    is typically lacking in adherence

    studies.

    However, one meta-analysis recently

    concluded that the mean rate o

    primary non-adherence across studies

    that have been published on the topic

    is 17.3%,16 and another, using a large

    e-prescribing database, concluded

    that the rate is 30.2%.15 We decided

    to use the mean o both studies, or a

    rate o 23.8%. In both papers, primary

    non-adherence was also specifed

    according to therapeutic area in a ew

    instances, and in those instances, we

    used those specifc data rather than

    the more general mean. Also, where

    necessary or very selected therapeutic

    areas such as oncology, we estimated

    a lower primary non-adherence rate,

    assuming that frst flls would be higher

    than average.

    We also assumed, based on IMS data,

    that new prescriptions, in general,

    account or 10% o the overall market,

    except or 10 conditions (such as

    diabetes and high cholesterol), or

    which we had more specifc data.

    Given that, we applied the primary

    non-adherence rate to that same

    percentage o revenue, not to total

    revenue. Continuing prescriptions

    represent the majority o the market,

    although the correlation between

    percentage o new prescriptions and

    percentage o revenue is not exact, as

    new prescriptions are oten newer and

    more expensive.

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    Table 1. Adherence data from published, claims-based studies

    Study Class or Medication Secondary Adherence

    Cardiovascular

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Statins 61.0%

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Antihypertensives (ARBs) 66.0%

    Roebucket al, 2011 Antihypertensives 59.0%

    Choudhry et al, 2011 Statins, antihypertensives 62.9%

    Cramer et al, 2008 Antihypertensives 67.0%

    Cramer et al, 2008 Statins 74.0%

    Shranket al, 2006 Calcium-channel blockers 56.5%

    Shranket al, 2006 ACE inhibitors 64.9%

    Shranket al, 2006 ARBs 60.7%

    Shranket al, 2006 Statins 62.1%

    Diabetes

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Oral 72.0%

    Roebucket al, 2007 Oral 40.0%60.0%

    Cramer et al, 2008 Oral 71.0%

    Adeyemi et al, 2012 Oral 44.7%

    Zhu et al, 2011 Oral 40.0%50.0%

    Rozeneld et al, 2008 Oral 81.0%

    Barron et al, 2008 Oral 57.0%

    Fabunmi et al, 2009 Insulin (glargine) 58.0%

    Fabunmi et al, 2009 Insulin (exenetide) 68.0%

    Oncology

    Partridge et al, 2003 Tamoxien, breast cancer 87.0%

    Partridge et al, 2008 Arimidex, breast cancer 82.0%88.0%

    Wu et al, 2010 Gleevec, CML 79%

    Darkow et al, 2007 Gleevec, CML 77%

    Antiviral

    Murphy et al, 2012 HIV (specialty pharmacy) 74.1%Murphy et al, 2012 HIV (traditional pharmacy) 69.2%

    Central Nervous System

    Borah et al, 2010 Alzheimers disease 75.0%

    Davis et al, 2010 Parkinsons disease 58.0%

    Liu et al, 2011 Depression (duloxetine) 38.1%

    Liu et al, 2011 Depression (venlaaxine) 34.0%

    Liu et al, 2011 Depression (escitalopram) 25.4%

    Liu et al, 2011 Depression (generic SSRI) 25.5%

    Barner et al, 2011 ADHD 47.4%

    Ivanova et al, 2012 All MS drugs 81.1%

    Reynolds et al, 2010 4 MS drugs 80.0%

    Ettinger et al, 2008 Epilepsy 76.0%

    Davis et al, 2008 Epilepsy 78.0%

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    Study Class or Medication Secondary AdherenceRespiratory

    Mattke et al, 2010 Leukotriene inhibitors 39.0%

    Mattke et al, 2010 Inhaled corticosteroids 15.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Fluticasone/salmeterol combo 23.2%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Fluticasone and salmeterol 7.3%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Fluticasone and montelukast 7.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Fluticasone 8.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Montelukast 21.4%

    Yu et al, 2011 COPD single inhaler 55.0%

    Yu et al, 2011 COPD multiple inhalers 51.0%

    Toy et al, 2011 COPD QD inhaler 43.3%

    Toy et al, 2011 COPD BID inhaler 37.0%

    Toy et al, 2011 COPD TID inhaler 30.2%

    Toy et al, 2011 COPD QID inhaler 23.0%

    Rheumatology

    Curkendall et al, 2008 RA: etanercept or adalimumab 52.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 RA: injectable, community 60.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 RA: injectable, specialty 81.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 RA: etanercept 57.0%Stempel et al, 2005 RA: anakinra 36.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 RA: inliximab 64.0%

    Stempel et al, 2005 Gout: allopurinol 68.0%

    Gastrointestinal

    Kane et al, 2011 Ulcerative colitis: Lialda 37.2%

    Kane et al, 2011 Ulcerative colitis: Asacol 23.5%

    Kane et al, 2011 Ulcerative colitis: Pentasa 24.0%

    Kane et al, 2011 Ulcerative colitis: balsalazide 24.0%

    Kane et al, 2011 Ulcerative colitis: Dipentum 22.5%

    Osteoporosis

    Solomon et al, 2012 Osteoporosis 41.0%

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Osteoporosis 60.0%

    Ophthalmology

    Gurwitz et al, 1993 Glaucoma 69.0%

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Glaucoma 37.0%

    Other

    Nichol et al, 2009 BPH 56.0%

    Yeaw et al, 2009 Incontinence/OAB 25.0%

    Shranket al, 2010 Oral contraception 54.8%

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    Prior to embarking on this project, we

    surveyed a number o pharmaceutical

    executives across divisions and

    companies regarding their thoughts on

    the ollowing: the priority level given to

    medication non-adherence initiatives,

    whether or not the industry bears a

    responsibility to intervene, their level

    o skepticism that the non-adherence

    problem can be signifcantly improved,and fnally, their estimate o what the

    pharmaceutical industry oreits each

    year in the US.

    We received a range o responses to

    our survey. Regarding priority level,

    60% elt that adherence was a high

    priority or their company, whereas

    20% responded highest priority

    and another 20% respondents elt

    the priority level was medium. None

    elt that it was low priority. As or

    whether or not the industry bears someresponsibility to intervene to improve

    adherence, all responded yes. One

    respondent stated, I believe the pharma

    industry, healthcare proessionals and

    payers all bear an equal responsibility

    or promoting improved adherence to

    medication.

    Twenty percent remain slightly

    skeptical that non-adherence can

    be signifcantly improved, and 40%

    were not sure, whereas 40% wereeither confdent or very confdent.

    Regardless, one respondent stated,

    It is the biggest issue aecting positive

    treatment outcomes or most chronic

    therapies.

    Most interestingly, the range o

    estimates o revenue loss by the

    pharmaceutical industry due to non-

    adherence was very broad, rom many

    millions to $100 billion.

    In contrast, based on our careul reviewo the modern claims-based adherence

    literature, our estimate o revenue lost by

    the pharmaceutical industry each year in

    the US alone due to non-adherence to

    medications or chronic disease is $188

    billion (59% o the $320 billion in actual

    total revenue, or 37% o the $508 billion

    in potential total revenue). Extrapolated

    to the global market, pharmaceutical

    revenue loss is estimated to be $564

    billion annually (59% o the $956 billion

    in actual total global revenue, and 37%o the $1,520 billion in potential total

    global revenue). This is more than 18

    times higher than the $30 billion globally

    most oten quoted to date.

    These large numbers, particularly the

    large percentages o actual revenue

    lost, can be surprising at frst and are

    even more surprising when you examine

    specifc therapeutic classes, such as

    respiratory agents and antidepressants,

    where more than 200% o total current

    revenues are lost due to non-adherence.How can that be? To understand this

    seeming paradox, it is important to

    consider this: The calculation o losses

    due to non-adherence are based on

    revenues that could have been earned,

    not actually earned.

    As a simple illustration, consider a

    fctional medication with an adherence

    rate o 50%, and consider that the

    brand earns $100 million per year on

    that medication. I all patients were,instead, ully adherent (i adherence was

    100% rather than 50%), revenue would

    double, to $200 million. However, as

    actual adherence is only 50%, the brand

    earns only hal o its potential. Another

    way to express the same thought is this:

    When adherence = 50%, the ratio o

    revenue earned to revenue lost is 1:1. I

    adherence is lower than 50%, the brand

    actually loses out on more than it earns.

    Estimate of Revenue Loss

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    Table 2. Revenue loss by major pharmaceutical class

    Non-adherence related revenue loss in the US biopharmaceutical market by major therapeutic class, 2011e, USD billion

    Major TherapeuticClasses

    2011US Revenue$ Million

    Revenue Lost Due to Non-adherence

    % Revenues Lost(revenue lost revenue earned)Primary Secondary Total

    Respiratory Agents $ 21,000 $ 433$ 45,618$ 46,051 219%Antidepressants $ 11,000 $ 414 $ 23,228$ 23,642 215%Anti-ulcerants $ 10,100 $ 337$ 13,611 $ 13,949 138%Antidiabetics $ 19,600 $ 255 $ 11,155 $ 11,410 58%

    Antipsychotics $ 18,200 $ 502$ 10,041 $ 10,543 58%ADHD $ 7,900 $ 129$ 10,310 $ 10,440 132%Lipid Regulators $ 20,100 $ 568$ 9,762$ 10,330 51%Autoimmune Diseases $ 12,000 $ 153$ 6,110$ 6,263 52%Angiotensin II $ 7,600 $ 120$ 4,194$ 4,314 57%Hormonal Contraceptives $ 5,200 $ 52$ 3,903$ 3,955 76%Platelet Aggregation

    Inhibitors

    $ 7,800 $ 128$ 3,732$ 3,859 49%HIV Antivirals $ 10,300 $ 103$ 3,709 $ 3,812 37%Oncologics $ 23,200 $ 84$ 2,153 $ 2,237 10%Anti-epileptics $ 5,900 $ 86 $ 1,436 $ 1,521 26%Multiple Sclerosis $ 7,100 $ 90$ 1,222 $ 1,312 18%Erythropoietins $ 5,100 $ 51 $ 623$ 674 13%Immunostimulating Agents $ 4,500 $ 45$ 550$ 595 13%Other $ 105,000 $ 1,024$ 31,745$ 32,769 31%Narcotic Analgesics $ 8,300 $ $ $ 0%Vaccines (Pure, Comb.,

    Other)

    $ 6,300 $ $ $ 0%

    Antivirals, Excl. Anti-HIV $ 3,700 $ $ $ 0%Grand Total $ 319,900 $ 4,576 $ 183,102 $ 187,677 59%

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    To urther clariy this picture, a ocus

    on one specifc therapeutic area is

    instructive. In diabetes, or example,

    we examined 9 large-scale adherence

    studies that met our inclusion criteria.

    Two ocused on insulin therapy and

    7 ocused on oral therapy. Mean MPR

    or PDC or oral therapy, or example,

    ranged rom 40% to 81%, with a

    weighted average o 61.6%. Accounting

    or primary non-adherence or the 5%

    o the diabetes market that is dynamicin a given yeara critical actor not

    accounted or in any o these studies

    the revised weighted average adherence

    rate was 60.7%. O note, all adherence

    studies used or our estimate ocused

    on type 2 diabetes, which represents

    the vast majority o the market and the

    disease variant with greater adherence

    challenges.

    In diabetes, total US pharmaceutical

    revenues totaled $19.6 billion and

    chronic use approximately $17.6

    billion. Considering an estimated

    mean adherence rate o 60.7% across

    medications, the estimate o revenue

    lost in this therapeutic area alone is

    $11.4 billion or 58% o total revenue.

    Although diabetes, as a common

    primary care condition, is a requent

    ocus o the media, we would also like

    to emphasize that medication non-

    adherence is surprisingly pervasive

    across chronic conditions, cropping upin areas one might least expect it. Such

    therapeutic areas include, or example,

    immunosuppressant medications

    to prevent organ rejection ater

    transplantation, glaucoma medications

    to prevent visual loss or blindness, HIV

    medications to prolong lie, and adjuvant

    therapy to prevent cancer recurrence.

    There are 4 main actors that make our

    estimate o revenue loss conservative.

    One, we ocused only on chronic

    conditions, which are the target omost adherence studies and adherence

    interventions. Clearly, there are

    adherence issues with nonchronic

    medications, such as antibiotics or

    vaccines, but we excluded those

    categories altogether rom our revenue

    loss calculations.

    Two, the way we estimated revenue loss

    due to primary non-adherence (initial

    prescriptions never flled) was extremely

    conservative. For lack o better sources,

    the data on the relative size o the

    dynamic market or new patients (versus

    prescriptions renewed rom one year

    to the next) that we used to calculate

    our baseline were measured in total

    prescriptions and were close to 10%

    o the total market. However, because

    new expensive drugs are generally

    over-represented in comparison to older,

    cheaper (and sometimes generic) drugs

    in the dynamic part o the market, the

    actual revenue loss due to primary non-

    adherence is likely to be signifcantly

    higher than our estimate.

    Three, most secondary adherence

    studies include only patients who haveflled a prescription at least twice (the

    initial fll, with at least one refll). However,

    given that the steepest drop-o in

    persistence typically occurs during

    the frst 3 months on therapy, many

    adherence studies actually overestimate

    adherence by excluding the signifcant

    number o patients who fll only once.

    In overestimating adherence, we

    underestimate revenue loss.

    And ourth, we did not account or

    the act that in any given year, there

    are patients who were prescribed a

    medication the prior year and dropped

    o, but who should have remained on

    that medication through years two,

    three, and beyond. The pharma industry

    continues to lose out on revenue rom

    these patients who should, based on

    their physicians initial advice, be on

    long-term or even lielong therapy.

    Because we did not add these

    patients to our statistics, we urther

    overestimated adherence, thereby

    underestimating revenue loss.

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    Annual Pharmaceutical Revenue Loss Due to

    Medication Non-adherence (billions)

    US2004 Market Assumption

    $ 14$ 30

    $ 188

    $ 564

    Current Market Estimate

    Global

    Total Static Dynamic Delta Delta +

    % Primary Adherence % Secondary Adherence ##% % of Actual Total

    320

    226

    94

    94

    508

    188

    204 204

    2722

    183

    4145

    2%

    57% 59%

    Actual

    Chronic

    Split

    Actual

    Total

    Actual Non-

    chronic

    Actual

    Chronic

    Primary

    Non-

    adherence

    Secondary

    Non-

    adherence

    Potential

    Chronic w/o

    Primary Non-

    adherence

    Potential

    Chronic

    Actual

    Non-

    chronic

    Potential

    Total

    Revenue Loss

    Due to Non-

    adherence

    Figure 1. Calculation of US pharmaceutical revenue loss due to non-adherence

    Figure 2. Current revenue loss estimate compared with previous market assumption

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    Implications

    Our estimate o $188 billion in

    pharmaceutical revenue lost annually in

    the US alone and $564 billion globally

    due to medication non-adherence is

    the most accurate estimate to date

    and points to a ar more signifcant

    problem than previously believed or

    acknowledged. Clearly, the priority level

    assigned to medication non-adherence

    should be at the highest level within

    the pharmaceutical industry, and a

    willingness to embrace more innovative

    solutions is imperative, given the

    lackluster results o historical eorts.

    Although a number o pharmaceutical

    companies have established

    adherence teams, they are oten

    underunded, slow moving, and prone

    to recommending traditional tactics

    such as reminder programs, cost

    reductions, and isolated educational

    campaigns, which are insufcient and

    oten do not address the root o the

    problem.

    Interestingly, regardless o condition,

    cost o therapy, or demographic,

    a common shortcoming o human

    psychology is the difculty in ollowing

    through with taking a medication

    (or with any healthy behavior) in

    the present or a health-related

    payo in the distant uture. This is a

    psychological reality that tends to resist

    simple reminders, cost reductions, and

    even educational eorts.

    However, even the most innovative and

    eective solution will not cure the

    problem. The goal is to raise adherence

    rates compared with baseline, not to

    perect adherence, which is impossible.

    Given this reality, how much o the

    $564 billion ($188 billion US) lost each

    year can pharma reasonably expect to

    recoup in the best-case scenario? This

    remains unknown. However, i pharma

    were able to reduce the adherence gap

    by a tenth across the board, it would

    net an additional $41 billion in revenue

    to the US pharmaceutical industry each

    year. And, with this lit in adherence

    and revenues, a corresponding boost

    in clinical outcomes and decline in

    healthcare spending would be realized,

    benefting patients and the healthcare

    industry as a whole.

    What is clear is that the rigor applied

    to adherence research is bound to

    improve, given the growing interest

    in and scrutiny o the feld, and the

    realization that some degree o

    standardization would go ar toward

    more accurate meta-analysis eorts.

    Although our estimate was derived

    rom the most rigorous methods

    possible, combined with conservative

    assumptions and the best publicly

    available data, it remains an estimate

    based on imperect data. We are

    confdent that uture eorts, based on

    better data, will oer the industry even

    more accurate insights into the nature

    o the problem, its magnitude, and the

    efcacy o new interventions.

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    About the Authors and Contributors

    I you have any questions about this report, please contact:

    Thomas Forissier is a Principal in Capgemini Consult ings Lie Sciences Sector and co-lead o the Lie Sciences Customer

    Experience Practice. Thomas has conducted multiple projects in the areas o customer experience and digital strategy at

    leading pharmaceutical companies and helped defne innovative value propositions or patients and HCPs alike. Thomas

    has researched the area o patient adherence or the past ew years. He was the lead author or Capgemini Consultings

    2011 Vision & Reality report Patient Adherence: The Next Frontier in Patient Care. In April 2012, he published an article in

    PM360 titled Patient Adherence: Initiating the Journey toward Collaboration. He also contributed to the FirstWord 2012

    report New Thinking on Patient Adherence. Thomas received masters degrees in management rom ESCP Europe and in

    political science rom Science Po Paris.

    Thomas ForissierPrincipal, Capgemini Consulting

    Capgemini Consulting contact ino: Email: [email protected] Call: +1 646 339 6066

    Dr. Katrina Firlik is co-ounder and Chie Medical Ofcer o HealthPrize Technologies. Prior to ounding HealthPrize,

    Dr. Firlik was a neurosurgeon in private practice in Greenwich, Connecticut and on the clinical aculty at Yale University

    School o Medicine. She is also the author oAnother Day in the Frontal Lobe, published by Random House.

    Katrina Firlik, MDChie Medical Ofcer, HealthPrize Technologies

    HealthPrize contact ino: Email: [email protected] Call: +1 203 957 3402

    Contributors

    Kevin Qin is a Senior Consultant in the Lie Sciences Practice o Capgemini Consulting.

    He has an extensive background in the areas o clinical and commercial assessment

    and decision modeling. Kevin holds an MBA degree rom the Indiana University at

    Bloomington, Indiana.

    Special thanks to Suday Karkera and Oana Hadzhiyski or their help with the analysis.

    Kevin QinSenior Consultant in the Lie Sciences Practice o Capgemini Consulting

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    17

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    Capgemini Consulting is the global strategy andtransormation consulting organization o the CapgeminiGroup, specializing in advising and supporting enterprisesin signiicant transormation, rom innovative strategy toexecution and with an unstinting ocus on results. Withthe new digital economy creating signiicant disruptionsand opportunities, our global team o over 3,600 talentedindividuals work with leading companies and governments tomaster Digital Transormation, drawing on our understandingo the digital economy and our leadership in businesstransormation and organizational change.

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    About Capgemini

    HealthPrize, an innovative leader in the medication adherence space, oers an online and mobile Engagement Engine that drivesadherence via rewards, education, and gaming dynamics. The companys platorm leverages modern insights rom behavioraleconomics and consumer marketing to maximize its motivational impact. HealthPrize understands that medication non-adherenceis a complex psychological phenomenon, oten resistant to simple reminders, cost reductions, and education alone.

    Find out more atwww.HealthPrize.com

    Capgemini Consulting is the strategy and transformation consulting brand of Capgemini Group. The information contained in this document is proprietary.

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