5th February 2013

Cambridge University Scientific Society

Cambridge

Our Shared Destinies Within the Planet’s Boundaries

Professor Sir David King

Director, Cambridge KaspakasSenior Science Advisor, UBSChancellor, University of Liverpool

The Loess Plateau, China

Source: CSIRO

Loess Plateau

Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

Total Population of the World in Billions

Source: IIASA

Middle Class*

*Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms

Pop 2.1

Source: www.gapminder.org

Average Children per Woman 1960

Average Children per Woman 2011

Source: www.gapminder.org

• 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today

• 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030

• 90% of that growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region

Rising Middle Class

Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

21st Century Challenges

Conflict and

terrorism

Water resource

Energy security and supply

Health and developmen

t

Food production

Climate change

Ecosystems

Minerals

Population – the driver

Conflict and

terrorism

Water resource

Energy security and supply

Food production

Climate change

Ecosystems

Minerals

Population – the driver

MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999-2001=100)

Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA

The Arab Spring

Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009

Global Water Demand

Volume of conventional oil discovered

Volume of conventional oil consumed

Billi

ons

of b

arre

ls

[Gb]

Year

50

40

30

20

10

2000198019601940

0

19201900 2020 2040 2060

Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026

Conventional Oil Supply and Demand

Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth

Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present

Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435

Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies

Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility

Source: Chuquicamata in Chile

Copper Reserves

389 ppm

Interglacial period

Glacial period

Carbon dioxide

Temperature

Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485 Source: ML Design.  From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009

60 million years ago

40 million

20 million 0.5 million

Present

175ppm200ppm

275ppm

250ppm

Carb

on

diox

ide

2.5 million

2 million

1 million1.5 million

5

4

3

2

1

0

225ppm

3 million

400,000 years ago 300,000 200,000 100,000 Present

Tem

pera

tur e

0ºC

-2ºC-4ºC

-6ºC

-8ºC

-300ppm

-325ppm

δ18

0 (

ppt)

Tem

pera

tur e

Observed Global Temperatures

Sea Level and Temperature Measurements

Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool

European Temperatures 1900 – 2100

Source: Hadley Centre

Destruction of forests

Source: World Research Institute

Protection Areas

CAPE COD

Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service

Collective response

Global governance

Sustainable consumption

The Paradigm Shift

A Twenty First Century Renaissance

Source: Kate Roworth 2012, Oxfam

Planetary Boundaries

Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

Timeline of Climate Change Action

20301990 2000 2010 2020

1992 UNFCCC formation

1997 Kyoto

Protocol

2001 Marrakesh –

Kyoto Protocol implementation

rules agreed

2005 Kyoto

Protocol enters

into force 2012 Kyoto I

ends2010

Cancun Agreement

2009 Copenhagen

Accord

National and Regional

Commitments

Global Process

First A

ccor

d Com

mitmen

t

perio

d for

76 na

tions

2009

100 h

eads

of st

ates a

t

Copen

hage

n

2003 UK

unilaterally declares

60% emissions reduction target for

2050

2004 UK Internal

ETS established

2005 European

Union adoption of

the ETS

2005 Gleneagles G8+5National:

UN:

2008

UK Clim

ate C

hang

e Act

2011 Durban Platform

National Actions on Climate Change

Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements. ‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU

by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action.

Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

National Action: Rwanda

Historical Development of Advanced Economies

Imported goods

Innovation

Science, Technology, Engineering

Manufacturing

Offshore Manufacturing

Smart green advanced

manufacturing sector

Innovation

Science, Technology, Engineering

Emergence of Smart Green Advanced Manufacturing Sector

“Circular Economy”

Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation

Transport Substitution

Source: Future of Mobility Roadmap, Smith School.

Personal Urban Mobility

left: Gordon Murray Design T25 right: C. Borroni-Bird (GM) in O.R. Inderwildi & D.A. Kind (Eds.), ‘Energy, Transport & the Environment, Springer 2012

Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)

Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST

People vs. Cars: Bogota

Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa

Source: Hybrid Lighter Than Air Craft 2012

Hybrid Airship

The International FusionProject: ITER

Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy

Plastic photovoltaics

Richard Friend

Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust

Progress in China

• 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward

• 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in

their development

• 2012 - 15th November – Changed their constitution

Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau

Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org

1997 2005

‘Unsustainable Boom’ Equitable wealth distributionInstabilities due to resource scarcity

‘Renaissance World’Good use of technology

Behavioural transitionAccounting for

common good

‘The Frog Boiler ’Degraded planetary systemResource scarcity

‘Gates and Ghettoes’Only low level of the population achieves

well-beingSociety in reverse

State of Resources and Global Commons

Human Well-being

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being Scenarios

“It is, therefore, the manner and issue of consumption which are the real

tests of production … THERE IS NO WEALTH BUT LIFE. Life, including all

its powers of love, of joy, and of admiration.”

Source: John Ruskin, Unto this Last (1862)

Engagement with the Outside World

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