Expert Panel 3:

Anticipation techniques used in crisis management cells

Carole DAUTUN

Head of risks and crisis department

National Institute for advanced studies in security and justice

(INHESJ)

An example of anticipation methods used in the French Prime Minister crisis cell

The National Institute for Advanced

Studies in Security and Justice

• Institute under the supervision of the Prime Minister

• Objectives of the Institute :

• Anticipating changes in order to inform public decision-makers

• Acquiring a better knowledge of real-life situations

• Analysing risks and threats

• Creating practical tools for security professionals

• Informing and training people in charge of security

• Enhancing multidisciplinary meetings and partnerships

• …in the fields of security, health, environment, and justice

Risks and Crisis Department

• Specialized in management training and crisis communication

• Composed of a multidisciplinary team

• Instructional design combining conceptual contributions, case

studies and simulation exercises

• Support organizations on these subjects

• Studies and research on decision processes and human behaviors

• Design of methodological tools for policy makers and animation of

interdepartmental working groups

INHESJ 2015

The crisis process

A crisis situation emerges from a dynamic and ongoing process that:

is carried and handled

by men and women

takes its source within the organizations,

outbreaks through a triggering event,

is amplified by the

presence of a particular

context and/or human

or managerial factors,

Anticipation

Anticipation can be defined as the ability to imagine the

future potential of a situation.

The anticipation of a crisis engenders the creation of

different scenarios of evolution in time of a given situation

and integrating a reading of interactions and potential

impact.

Anticipation is the continuum of diagnosis of the situation at

time t (the same criteria of assessment)

Prospective reading of a crisis therefore requires a broad,

multidisciplinary, interdepartmental and interprofessional

vision

Objectives of the anticipation cell

The anticipation cell should provide assessment and

understanding of the crisis by integrating various elements as

the context ;

It should propose potential scenarios of evolution of the

situation and action plans for every conceivable position ;

And answer all requests made by the decision maker.

Methodology

Conceptual Framework (1)

SYSTEMIC APPROACH

A crisis situation is often coincident with a complex situation

which can be apprehended by systemic approach.

This approach allows to collect and visualize the phenomenon

of a crisis in its completeness while taking into account its

characteristics, its dynamics, and the set of capabilities

implemented.

Such an approach applied to crisis situations provides relevant

modeling and analysis framework used as a decision support

tool.

Conceptual Framework (2)

RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH

The analysis, the evaluation and the anticipation of a crisis

situation must be done through using quantitative and

qualitative criteria.

This work integrates the concepts of risk analysis methods

and more particularly the method known as "causes-

consequences".

Aggravating factors

5 analysis units

Events and consequences

Context

Organizations - Stakeholders

Communication

Modeling a crisis situation

Objectives : how the crisis will evolve in the future and so answer the

question “how will the situation change ?”

Three steps :

Situation assessment

Prospective diagnostic

Scenario and actions plan

Different criteria and set of questions to assess and imagine the

crisis in the future

Methodology (1)

STEP 1 : situation assessment

Objective : To characterize the crisis at a time t (context, event, consequences, etc) Question : « What is happening? »

STEP 2 : prospective diagnostic

Objective : To characterize the crisis at a time t+x (context, event, consequences, etc) Question : « How may the situation evolve? »

STEP 3 : scenarios and proposition of measures and actions

Questions : “What influence can we have on the situation?” “How to implement a desired future?”

Methodology (2)

Methodology (3)

Formulate hypothesis of work and timeframe :

• Ordered by the

decision-maker (scenario in six hours, in fifteen days, most likely, the worst, exit crisis, …)

• Since the beginning, with a new event,

• Etc

Methodology (4)

STEP 1 : SITUATION ASSESSMENT

STEP 2 : ANTICIPATION

CONTEXT

What is the context? How can the context change? What is its impact on the situation?

What is the calendar now ? ( holidays, celebrations)

TRIGGER EVENT

According to the information available, what is the nature of the event?

How can progress the event (s) (based on expert opinion)

ORGANISATIONS

What are the available capacities to meet the challenges of shares and when are they available?

Methodology (5)

Some recommendations

The anticipation team must be reduced in number (5 or 6)

Transversal vision, interdepartmental, interprofessional,

multidisciplinary;

Be in capacity to integrate different perspectives and facets of

the crisis (not only linked to its core business)

Be creative;

Think out of context;

Intellectual approach applicable in many situations.

Thank you for your attention

Who was responsible for organizing the panic?