Europol’s position in counter-terrorism

Paul Minnebo Counter Terrorism Unit

Geneva – May 2015

Europol Unclassified - Basic Protection level / Europol Public Information

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EUROPOL: Supporting Law Enforcement authorities, providing a platform for the exchange and analysis of criminal intelligence

Seat: The Hague, the Netherlands

Staff: 850 personnel, including:

• 186 liaison officers (from EU Member States and non-EU partners)

• 100 Analysts

Europol’s Main Functions and Products and Services in General

Main functions: 1. Channel for the exchange of operational information 2. Support to on-going investigations 3. “Intelligence organisation”

Products: Analysis Reports

• X-match & Operational and Strategic analysis Threat / Risk Assessments

• Ad-hoc, by request or own initiative Knowledge Products

• New developments / specific subjects Mobile Office

• Analytical Assistance on the spot in operations in Member States Experts assisting MS in person

• From the Hague or in situ (including ‘First Response Network’)

Investigation and intelligence: two different functionalities

Supporting criminal investigations: focus on evidence and prosecution:

• Responds to already reported events; • Explains what did happen and who was involved; • Low tolerance for false positives; • Formal requirements for information collection; • Sworn officers only; • Tactical.

Intelligence: focus on insight: • Is deliberately designed to allow for speculation about, and prediction of likely (future) activities of criminal opponents; • High tolerance for false positives; • Multiple information collection methods; • Also civilians as analysts; • Tactical, Operational and Strategic.

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Europol strategic analysis reports

SOCTA TE-SAT

• Threat assessment • Situation and trend report

• For prioritising • To inform

• Forward looking • Retrospective

• Restricted document & public version • Public document

• Every four years • Every year

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TE-SAT Process

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MEMBER STATES

EUROPOL EXPERTS

OPEN SOURCES

DRAFT REPORT

CORROBORATION BY MEMBER STATES

ADVISORY BOARD

MEMBER STATES

FINAL REPORT

QUALITATIVE INFORMATION QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION

EURO- JUST

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Terrorist Acts: EU Definition

• Intentional acts, that:

• may seriously damage a country or international organisation, which aim to

• intimidate populations

• compel states to comply with the perpetrators demands and / or

• destabilise the fundamental political, constitutional, economical or social structures of a country or an international organisation.

Source: Article 1 of the Council Framework decision on combating terrorism of 13 June 2002 (2002/475/JHA)

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• 4 people died as a result of terrorist attacks in the EU (7 in 2013, 17 in 2012)

• 201 terrorist attacks carried out in EU Member States

• 774 individuals arrested in the EU for terrorism related offences

Key Findings of the TE-SAT 2015: General Overview 2014

Religiously Inspired 395Left-Wing 54Not Specified 137Right-Wing 34Separatist 154

Religiously Inspired 2Left-Wing 13Not Specified 118Separatist 67Single Issue 1

Arrests in 2014

Failed, Foiled and Completed Attacks in 2014

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Attacks Arrests

Austria 0 31 Belgium 1 72 Bulgaria 0 21 Czech Republic 0 1 Denmark 0 1 Finland 0 4 France 52 238 Germany 0 18 Greece 7 13 Ireland 0 27 Italy 12 39 Luxembourg 0 1 Netherlands 0 17 Poland 2 14 Spain 18 145 UK 109 132

Key Findings of the TE-SAT 2015: Attacks and Arrests in 2014

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Key Findings: by Terrorist Affiliation

• Religiously Inspired Terrorism • Four persons killed in a religiously inspired terrorist attack • The scale of the phenomenon of individuals travelling to Syria and Iraq for

terrorist purposes is unprecedented

• Ethno-Nationalist and Separatist Terrorism • Dissident Republican (DR) groups’ activity remained high • ETA’s logistical apparatus is assessed as still being operational • The PKK keeps its presence among the Kurdish populations in the EU

• Left-Wing and Anarchist Terrorism • Decline in violent left-wing and anarchist extremist activity in 2014. • Terrorist attacks decreased in 2014 to 13: the lowest number since 2006

• Right-Wing Terrorism • A significant increase in anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic incidents across the EU • No attacks classified as right-wing terrorism

Number of Attacks and Suspects Arrested for Ethno-Nationalist and Separatist Terrorism in EU Member States in 2014

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Attacks Arrests

France 50 41

Germany 0 2

Ireland 0 27

Italy 0 9

Spain 17 75 United Kingdom (109) -

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Significant Increase in Arrests for Religiously Inspired Terrorism

395

159

216 179

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Arrests for Religiously Inspired Terrorism in 2014

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Member States Arrests Austria 30 Belgium 71 Bulgaria 21 Czech Republic 1 Denmark 1 Finland 4 France 188 Germany 16 Greece 0 Ireland 0 Italy 11 Luxembourg 1 Netherlands 17 Poland 0 Spain 34 UK -

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Key Judgments and trends 1/4

• The overall threat to EU security will likely increase

Main concern: jihadists travelling to and from conflict zones

• The Islamic State and Al Qaeda

affiliated groups have the intent, capability and resources to carry out terrorist attacks against the EU and the West

A significant number of terrorist plots were thwarted by EU Member States in 2014.

Key Judgments and trends 2/4

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• Attacks carried out by lone actors and encouragement of small-scale attacks is on the increase

In addition to individuals who act as members of a network, or who benefit from a support network, radicalised lone attackers pose an increasing threat – exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Syria and Iraq.

• Acts of violence by the Islamic State have the

potential to increase the number and intensity of extreme-right wing activities

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Key Judgments and trends 3/4

• The trend of travelling for terrorist purposes to Syria and Iraq continued in 2014

• In 2014, Member States reported an increase in women and children travelling to the region also. This phenomenon may eventually lead to the emergence of a new generation of jihadist terrorists in Europe.

• The threat to EU citizens and interests abroad, in particular in conflict zones, remains high

At least six EU citizens (non-combatants) were believed to have been killed in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Algeria over 2014

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Key Judgments and trends 4/4

• Increased numbers of incidents targeting symbols of the Jewish faith indicate a presence of anti-Semitic sentiments in the EU

Both right-wing extremist groups and religiously inspired terrorists have included Jewish entities, such as cultural and religious institutions, amongst their targets.

• The current situation in Libya and Ukraine may ultimately lead to increased quantities of military grade firearms and explosives becoming available to terrorists in the EU

The historic conflicts in Western Balkan countries in the 1990s led to an abundance of firearms in EU Member States

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Nexus Organised Crime / Terrorist Groups?

Terrorist groups can, at times, resort to common crime to generate funds used to cover the costs associated with the planning and execution of attacks such as recruitment, procurement, travel. Alternatively, terrorist groups may seek contact with common criminals or organised crime groups to access greater financial resources, weapons, transport means, specialist skills or a larger pool of potential recruits. Though driven by different motivations, terrorist organisations and organised criminal groups use similar tactics to achieve their objectives.

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Current Trans-National Terrorism Issues in the EU

Catalysts / Influencing factors: • Developments in MENA region; • The role of social media in terrorism and violent extremism

Actors:

• EU citizens returning from conflict zones where they have fought alongside jihadist terrorist groups; • EU citizens who want to travel to conflict zones, but for some reason are not able to

Some consequences: • Serious threats to symbols of authority (police, military), free press and Jewish population in the EU; • Increased Sunni / Shiite tensions in Muslim communities in the EU; • The rise of anti-Semitism and anti-Islamism……

The First Three Months of 2015...

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• Libya added to the conflict zones that pose an increased risk to the EU;

• No decrease in foreign fighters travelling to and from conflict zones;

• Already several attacks in the EU, or victimising EU citizens abroad, by religiously inspired terrorists in first 3 Months of 2015

• Paris, January 2015: 12 + 4 people killed • Tripoli (Libya), January 2015: 9 people killed • Verviers (Belgium), January 2015: one foiled attack • Copenhagen, February 2015: 2 people killed • Tunis (Tunisia), March 2015: 22 people killed;

• 154 individuals arrested in the EU on charges related to religiously inspired terrorism in the first 3 months of 2015.

• 19 EU nationals arrested for the same outside of the EU.

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Developments Within Europol

Justice and Home Affairs Council Meeting 12/13 March 2015:

• EU Internet Referral Unit (IRU) • Enhanced information exchange • Operational cooperation on illicit trafficking of firearms;

• European Counter terrorism Centre (ECTC);

• Siena+;

• Match3 application;

• Working Group DUMAS;

• Network of National Contact Points for foreign fighters

Europol’s Strands of Action in Counter-Terrorism

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• Foreign Fighters • Terrorist Finance • Firearms • Internet • International Cooperation

Thank you