45019-001: consultant’s report - asian development bank · pdf filethis...

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

Project Number: 45019-001 June 2013

Bangladesh: Road Safety Improvement Programs

Prepared by International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP), London, United Kingdom for Roads and Highways Department under Ministry of Communication of People’s Republic of Bangladesh

HOW SAFE ARE OUR ROADS?

BANGLADESH

2013

A WORLD FREE OF HIGH RISK ROADS

DRAFT FINAL REPORT

“Beware! Accident-prone area ahead.”

Page 1

WE CAN MAKE

ROADS SAFEIt is estimated that some 20,000 people die on the roads in Bangladesh each year and many thousands more are seriously injured or disa-bled. But this type of road trauma is not inevi-table—it is preventable.

As part of efforts to curb road deaths and se-rious injuries, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) invited iRAP to assess roads that form the backbone of nation’s transport system. The project was part of the ADB’s irst ever ‘road safety pipeline’ project which includes investing in road safety countermeasures on selected high-risk corridors, developing road safety poli-cies, strengthening road safety management capacity and implementing nationwide road safety improvement programs.

The road assessments undertaken in this pro-ject covered some 1,300km of national roads which were nominated by the RHD. The project also included updates to existing results pro-duced in 2010. The majority of roads assessed are rated in the highest risk bands: 1- or 2-stars. The reasons for this are clear and include the fact that 80% of the roads where pedestrians are likely to use the road have no footpaths.

However, Safer Roads Investment Plans pre-pared in the project make the solutions equally clear. Construction of 85km of footpaths on N4, for instance, could prevent more than 4,000 deaths and serious injuries over 20 years and save Tk 6 billion in crash costs. Much of this cost would otherwise be borne by an already stretched health sector.

The summary results contained in this report, and the detailed online results (at http://vida.irap.org), help to demonstrate that by making targeted investments in priority roads, the so-cial and economic burden on families, commu-nities, workplaces and hospitals can be signii-cantly reduced.

Furthermore, by setting ambitious policies such as the elimination of 1- and 2-star roads by 2020, or a requirement that all new roads achieve 3- or 4-stars, Bangladesh has the op-portunity to create a legacy of safe roads for future generations.

Together, we can create a Bangladesh free ofhigh risk roads.

LIVES

iRAP’s vision is a world free of high risk roads

The International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) is a charity dedicated to saving lives.Road Assessment Programmes (RAP) are now active in more than 70 countries throughout Eu-rope, Asia Paciic, North, Central and South America and Africa. iRAP is inancially supported by the FIA Foundation for the Automobile and Society and the Road Safety Fund. Projects receive support from the Global Road Safety Facility, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, automobile associations, other regional development banks and donors. National governments, automobile clubs and associations, charities, the motor industry and institutions such as the European Com-mission also support RAPs in the developed world and encourage the transfer of research and technology to iRAP. In addition, many individuals donate their time and expertise to support iRAP.

Page 2

HUMAN IMPACTThe World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 20,000 people are killed on Bangladesh’s roads each year - 55 per day (WHO, 2009). This is more than four times higher than oficial igures. In fact, following a survey of more than 80,000 households, a study led by TRL found that the true number of deaths is likely to be four times higher and serious injuries is about 75 times higher than oficial records indicate (Aeron-Thomas et al (2004).

The available data for the major roads assessed in this report indicate that from 2008 to 2010, an av-erage of 0.4 deaths occured per kilometre per year.

Allowing for an under-reporting factor of four and by applying the method described by McMahon and Dahdah (2009), it was estimated that some 24,500 people are either killed or seriously injured on the project roads each year, equating to an economic cost of Tk 50 billion (US$617 million) per annum.1

51% According to the BRTA, more than half of reported fatal crashes in-volve a pedestrian.

36%The Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) estimates that more than a third of people killed are under the age of 25.

55 The WHO estimates that 20,000 people are killed each year - 55 every day.

Income decreased 72%

While reducing poverty is a global priority, road crashes make this task more dificult as many non-poor households become poor after a road crash. Two–thirds of poor households in Bangladesh with a se-rious injury have to borrow money to cope with increased medical costs and reduced earnings.

Households impacted by a road death

Source: Aeron-Thomas et al (2004).

Food consumption decreased 70%

Living standard decreased 75%

Page 3

“Ten years ago we were dealing mainly with diar-rhoea or children with respiratory infections. Now it’s multiple traumas from high-speed collisions. We’re not equipped to deal with the kind of inju-ries we see and the numbers keep going up. It is a tremendous strain and we can’t keep up with the number of crashes.” Dr Mohamed Abu Zaed, Narsingda District Hospital (The Observer, 9 December 2012)

LIVES

Page 4

ROAD ASSESSMENT

2

1ROAD INSPECTIONS

STAR RATINGSStar Ratings are an objective measure of the likelihood of a crash occurring and its severity. They draw on road safety in-spection data and the extensive research on real-world relation-ships between road attributes and crash rates. Research shows that a person’s risk of death or serious injury is highest on a one-star road and lowest on a ive-star road.

Using a vehicle equipped with GPS, video camera and survey software, analysts undertook detailed road inspections of some 1,300km of national highways, focusing on around 50 different road design attribute that are known to inluence the likelihood of a crash and its severity. These features include intersection design, road cross-section and markings, roadside hazards, footpaths and bicycle lanes. The data col-lection was led by local irm FERBA Instrumentation Logistics and Roads and Highways (RHD) staff.

Page 5

3SOLUTIONSMore than 90 road improvement options were con-sidered while generating affordable and economically sound Safer Road Investment Plans (SRIP) that can save lives. Options range from low-cost road mark-ings and pedestrian refuges to higher-cost intersec-tion upgrades and full highway duplication. The Star Rating and SRIP analyses were undertaken by iRAP staff using online software, ViDA (http://vida.irap.org).2 Full password-protected results are available to stakeholders in ViDA.

ASSESSMENT

Page 6

MEASURING RISK

PavementPoor road surfaces, such as those with holes, mean it is more likely that vehicles will swerve out of their lane. Furthermore, in an emergen-cy, vehicles can stop faster on skid-resistant pavements.

Trafic mixMixing fast moving cars, trucks and buses and slow moving tuk-tuks and tractors increases the risk of crashes, especially head-on and rear-end crashes.

MedianMedians (not present here) physically separate opposing trafic streams and help stop vehicles travelling into opposing trafic lanes. They can also help pedestrians cross the road or restrict their crossing at unsafe places.

RoadsidesRoadside hazards (like these trees) increase the risk of death and serious injury when a vehicle runs off the road.

GeometryThe number of lanes, width of lanes, curves, dips, crests and slopes all effect the risk of crashes.

By measuring the risk associated with road attributes, Star Ratings can provide a better indicator of the inluence of the road on risk than crash numbers alone. This image, the scene of a fatal head-on crash on the Dhaka to Sylhet Highway, lists the attributes that inluence the most common and severe types of crashes for vehicle occupants, motorcyclists, pedestrians and bicyclists, and which underpin the Star Ratings.

Page 7

FootpathsWithout unobstructed footpaths (as is the case here) it is more likely that pedestrians will walk on the road, especially when it is raining or when visibility is poor.

ASSESSMENT

ShouldersWhen a driver accidentally travels onto the road shoulder (not present here) the risk of crashing will be less if the vehicles can either stop on the shoulder or safely travel back into the trafic lane. Shoulders can also provide space for slower-moving non-motorised vehicles.

DelineationCentre and edge delineation treatments (pre-sent here) help drivers judge their position on the road, and provide advice about conditions ahead.

BicyclistsBicyclists (and people using non-motorised vehi-cles) are amongst the most vulnerable of all road users. Bicyclists are safest when they have their paths and do not need to mix with fast-moving trafic.

LightingVisibility is an important factor in creating a safe environment, particularly at intersections and where vulnerable road users are present.

IntersectionsIntersection (not present here) crashes are one of the most common types of crash problem, particularly in urban areas. In rural areas, or where vehicle speeds are high, the consequence of colli-sions at intersections can be particularly severe.

CrossingsMost pedestrian deaths occur while the pedes-trian is attempting to cross the road. A pedestrian crossing (not present here), including signalised crossings, refuge islands and bridges, can sig-niicantly reduce risk.

SpeedThe risk of death or serious injuries increases siginiicatly with speed. If a pedestrian is struck by a car travelling at 60km/h, they face a 90% chance of being killed. (Trafic regularly travels at faster than 60km/h on this stretch). In this study, assessments assumed that 85th percentole travel speeds are 60km/h in urban areas and 80km/h in rural areas.

Page 8

STAR RATINGSiRAP’s Star Ratings provide a simple and objective measure of the level of safety that is ‘built in’ to the road for vehicle occupants, motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians. Five-star roads are the safest and one-star roads are the least safe. Star Ratings are based on road data collected through detailed road inspection and analysis.

Motorcyclists

Although motorcycles are pre-sent throughout the network and often account for more than 20% of all trafic, there are virtu-ally no motorcycle facilities. This example on the N5 is a rare ex-ception.

Intersections

More than 1,000 intersections were recorded. Almost three quarters of these (70%) are un-signalised with no protected turn lanes and no chanelisation, and most are of poor quality.

Non-motorised vehicles

Although non-motorised vehi-cles such as bicycles are pre-sent throughout the network, just 4% of the network has bicy-cle paths.

Page 9

STAR RATINGS

STAR RATINGS

25%

29%

44%

Vehicle occupants

82%

Pedestrians

18%

22%59%

Motorcyclists

25%

63%

Bicyclists

Run-off road

Most roads have hazardous roadside objects, such as trees, poles and steep embankments. This is especially critical on curved sections, which account for about 20% of the network.

Pedestrians

Pedestrians are present on the majority of rural and urban roads, yet 80% of these roads have no formal footpaths.

Head-on

95% of roads are single lane carriageways with no median. Many of the roads carry a mix of slow moving and faster moving vehicles, creating high overtak-ing demand.

Page 10

SOLUTIONS

Tk USD

Estimated cost to build and maintain 12,500 million $157 million

Deaths and serious injuries prevented 260,000 260,000

Value of safety beneit (NPV) 365,000 million $4,570 billion

Cost per KSI saved 48,000 $600

Beneit cost ratio 29 29

Investment plan summary (20 years)

Note:Figures are rounded.KSI = number of people killed or seriously injured.NPV = net present value.Currency conversion: US$1 = Tk 79.4269 (January 2013).

Drawing on data that underpins the Star Ratings and trafic volume and fatality rate data, estimates of deaths and injuries throughout the network were generated.

For each section of road, countermeasure options were tested for their potential to reduce deaths and injuries. For example, a section of road that has a high level of risk for pedestrians might be a candidate for a pedestrian refuge, pedestrian crossing or signalised pedestrian crossing.

Each countermeasure option was assessed against affordability and economic effectiveness criteria. In this analysis, a ‘threshold’ beneit-cost ratio of 15:1 was set as a minimum requirement as a starting point for each countermeasure.

THE THREE KEY STEPS

1

2

3

A Safer Roads Investment Plan (SRIP) was produced in three key steps (see right). The plan focuses on lower-cost, high return countermeasures, and is based on a budget of approximately Tk 12.5 billion (US$157 million). It has the potential to prevent some 260,000 deaths and injuries over 20 years, representing a 54% reduction in deaths and serious injuries. For each Taka invested in the programme, there would be a saving of 29 Taka in terms of crash costs avoided.

Key countermeasures, which include footpaths, safety barriers, street lighting and pedestrian crossings are summarised on the following page. Full details, includ-ing the exact locations of each countermeasure is avail-able at: http://vida.irap.org.

Page 11

SOLUTIONS

Chapter Name | 09

SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES

Paved shoulders

Investment: Tk 0.9 billionDeaths and serious injuries prevented: 11,000Economic beneit: Tk 16 billionBeneit cost ratio: 17:1

Median barriers


Roadside safety barriers

Investment: Tk 1.2 billionPotential deaths and serious injuries prevented: 18,000Economic beneit: Tk 26 billionBeneit cost ratio: 21:1

Trafic calmingInvestment: Tk 0.2 billionDeaths and serious injuries prevented: 12,000Economic beneit: Tk 16 billionBeneit cost ratio: 43:1

Pedestrian crossings

and fences


Intersections


Footpaths


Central hatching


Delineation and lighting


Page 12

IMPLEMENTATION

iRAP Safer Roads Investment Plans provide a network-level assessment where countermeasures are economically viable. The plans are ‘high-level’ and can be considered as a ‘concept plan’. As with any engineering programme or concept plan, the implementation a Safer Roads Investment Plan requires local knowledge and detailed planning and design.

Typically, the planning and engineering steps involved in implementing a countermeasure programme include:

• local examination of proposed iRAP countermeasures

• preliminary scheme investigation studies• detailed design, star ratings of the designs,

detailed costing, inal evaluation and construction.

The detailed results of the project and access to the iRAP online software (http://vida.irap.org) have been provided to stakeholders for further exploration and use (the image below shows a snapshot of one of

the interactive reports available in ViDA). Detailed brieings are also able to be held with key funding bodies, elected members, government oficials, design engineers and planners to ensure a common understanding of the investment priorities and potential to save lives and reduce serious injuries. Opportunities to undertake capacity building activities and regional training of staff in how to use the iRAP results is being discussed with relevant agencies.

Finally, an important part of the implementation process should be ongoing trafic volume, crash and speed data collection for before-and-after evaluations of the improvements that will demonstrate their success and enable a later-phase improvement programme for the next investment period to be developed based on documented local experience.

Page 13

SOLUTIONS

CONCLUSION

The road assessments conducted in this project are the irst conducted in the ADB’s new road safety pipeline project. During the project, local irm FERBA Logistics and Instrumentation cooperated closely with the RHD to survey roads, record road attributes and compile supporting data. In doing so, both organisations have beneited from classroom and on-the-job training opportunities.

The work completed in Bangladesh will make a signiicant contribution to road safety, not only in the country, but globally. Scope for continuous improvement is built into the architecture of the Star Rating calculations: as more inspections are done, the learning can be captured and the Star Ratings improved.

In this report, Star Ratings are presented and a countermeasure programme is proposed. This programme, especially when applied to the highest ranked roads, has enormous potential to reduce road death and injury on the inspected network. Summary data have been presented, however iRAP results available to stakeholders include a detailed

breakdown of the countermeasure programme and the precise locations where they should be considered for implementation.

A key moment will arise when the iRAP team and local engineers come together after the assessments have been completed to review, sense check and reine the recommended countermeasure programme generated by the tools.

Early action will mean early beneits. It is hoped that an investment programme for Bangladesh will be agreed over the coming months in cooperation with RHD, Ministry of Communications and the ADB.

Together, with the international partners for the iRAP initiative, the team will continue to contribute to road safety knowledge globally and help drive investment programmes that will save many lives every year.

Page 14

In this table, the results are summarised for each road link. Star ratings are averages for the link, and the ranks are based on the numbers of deaths and serious injuries (KSI) that could be prevented if the plan discussed in this report was implemented.

IN DETAIL

Page 15

SOLUTIONS

Page 16

REFERENCES

NOTES

1 The cost of a fatality is estimated to be 100 x GDP per capita. According to the IMF, GDP per capita was Tk 64,884 (US$719) in 2012.

2 This report is based on the newly developed ‘V3’ model, the irst major update of the iRAP model since the ‘V2.2’ model was created during the irst 2006 iRAP Pilot Projects in Chile, Malaysia, Peru and South Africa (reports explain-ing the V2.2 methodology can be downloaded at: http://irap.org/about-irap-3/methodology.) The V3 model relects ex-perience in applying the V2.2 to more than 50,000km of roads in low- and middle-income countries and new research on the relationships between road attributes and risk.

The main differences between the V2.2 and V3 models are:• New attributes have been added, including street lighting and skid resistance. • The coding process for some existing attributes has been reined. For example, the type of roadside hazard and

the distance between the edge of the road and the hazard are now recorded separately.

The underlying methodology for calculating risk scores and countermeasures has been improved to better relect real-world conditions. This is especially so for the balance between vehicle crash types and for pedestrian crash risk. As part of this project, the results from the earlier assessments of N2 and N3 have been recalculated using the V3 model and migrated to the ViDA software. This required some basic assumptions to be made for road attributes not previous-ly coded. However, by taking this step we have ensured that there is a relatively high degree of compatibility between the earlier and more recent analyses. The original results remain available if required.

McMahon, K. and Dahdah, S. (2008) The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury.

http://irap.org/library.aspx.

A Aeron-Thomas (TRL), Dr G D Jacobs (TRL) Mr B Sexton (TRL), Dr G Gururaj (NIMHANS), and Dr F Rahman

(ICMH) (2004). The involvement and impact of road crashes on the poor: Bangladesh and India case studies.

iRAP (2009) Safer Roads Investment Plans: The iRAP Methodology. http://irap.org/library.aspx.

iRAP (2009) Star Rating Roads for Safety: The iRAP Methodology. http://irap.org/library.aspx.

iRAP, gTKP, GRSF, ARRB Group (2010) Road Safety Toolkit. www.irap.org/toolkit.

Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA), 2008. RTA Annual Report 2008.

McMahon, K. and Dahdah, S. (2008) The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury.

http://irap.org/library.aspx.

Roads & Highways Department of Bangladesh (2011). Basic Annual Average Daily Trafic (Combined).Roads and Highways Department (RHD), Bangladesh Road Maintenance and Management System (RMMS).

World Health Organisation (2009) Global Status Report on Road Safety: Time for Action.

Page 19

HOW SAFE ARE OUR ROADS?

BANGLADESH

A WORLD FREE OF HIGH RISK ROADS

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This report was commissioned by:

iRAP is supported by:

45019-001: consultant’s report - asian development bank · pdf filethis...

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