technical assistance consultant’s report...2018/01/23 · technical assistance consultant’s...

Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

Project Number: 46470-001 November 2018

TA8572 (REG): Action on Climate Change in South Asia (Financed by the Asian Development Bank)

Prepared by: MST Farida Perveen, Md. Golam Mahabub Sarwar, Md. Sirajul Islam, Md. Shameem Bhuiyan, and Abu Hena Md. Mostafa Dhaka, Bangladesh For: South Asia Department Asian Development Bank

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool

for

Screening Climate Change Risks of Development Project

Programming Division Planning Commission

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh

September 2018

Manual for CRVA Tool September 2018 2

[Blank Page]


Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool for Screening Climate Change Risks of Development Projects

Project No: 46470-001 TA 8572 REG: Action on Climate Change in South Asia

Establishment of Climate Risk Screening System for Mainstreaming Climate Change

Adaptation into National Development Budgeting Activities

Programming Division Planning Commission Government of Bangladesh


List of Figures Figure 1: CRS and CRVA ................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2: CRVA Steps ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Steps in CRVA study ..................................................................................................................... 15

List of Tables Table 1: Likelihood of hazards in the Project Intervention Area. ............................................................... 12 Table 2: Consequences of Hazards ............................................................................................................. 12 Table 3: Risk Score (RS) ............................................................................................................................... 13


Table of Contents

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ 4

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. 4

Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 5

Abbreviation ............................................................................................................................................. 6

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 7

STEP-1: Sector Selection ........................................................................................................................... 9

STEP-2: Spatial Units Selection ............................................................................................................... 10

STEP-3: Hazards Identification ................................................................................................................ 11

STEP-4: Likelihood of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 11

STEP-5: Consequences of Hazard ............................................................................................................ 12

STEP-6: Risk Scoring (RS) ......................................................................................................................... 13

STEP-7: Decision on CRS or CRVA ........................................................................................................... 13

STEP-8: CRVA Reporting .......................................................................................................................... 14

A. Climatic Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................ 15

B. Adaptation Assessment ................................................................................................................. 16

STEP-9: Risk Presentation ....................................................................................................................... 17

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 17

Appendix 1: Hazards of Bangladesh ........................................................................................................ 18

Appendix 2: List of District and Respective Hazards ............................................................................... 21

Appendix-3: Likelihood of Hazard in 64 Districts of Bangladesh ............................................................ 23

Appendix-4: Climate Risk Screening (CRS) Reporting Template ............................................................. 27

Appendix-5: Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Reporting Template .......................... 28

Appendix 6: Terminologies used in this tool ........................................................................................... 31

References .............................................................................................................................................. 32


Abbreviation

ADB Asian Development Bank

ADP Annual Development Programme

BARC Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council

CC Climate Change

CCS Climate Change Scenarios

CRS Climate Risk Screening

CRVA Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

DPP Development Project Proforma

GSB Geological Survey of Bangladesh

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MoA Ministry of Agriculture

RRM Risk Resilience Measures

RS Risk Score


Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool

Introduction Bangladesh is among the highly vulnerable countries in the world to climate change impacts. It will affect agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems, environment, ecology and economy of the country. While addressing the need to mainstream climate change in development activities of Bangladesh, it has been highly felt the need for assessing the vulnerability and risk of a newly initiated development projects.

ADB has developed a two-stage risk assessment method. (ADB 2016). The stages are (i) Climate Risk Screening (CRS) and (ii) Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA). Generally, there are three stages of a project: i) Project Conceptual Stage, ii) Project Preparatory Stage and iii) Project Implementation Stage (Figure 1). CRS is addressed in the Conceptual Stage of a project, and CRVA is done in the Preparatory Stage of a project. The selected risk resilience measures/adaptation are monitored in the implementation Phase of the project.

Figure 1: CRS and CRVA


In this light, a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Tool has been developed to assist the designing of new projects included in the Annual Development Programme (ADP included in the Developed Project Proforma (DPP)) in Bangladesh. This tool guides the users to assess Climate Risk Screening (CRS) and Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) of a public sector Development Project in Bangladesh. In addition this tool will guide project formulation at Agency or Ministry level and appraisal at Planning Commission. This tool involves 9 steps, as shown in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: CRVA Steps

1. SectorSelection

2. Spatial UnitSelection

3. HazardsIdentification

4. Likelihood ofHazard

5. Consequencesof Hazard

6. RiskScoring

7. Decision onCRS or CRVA

8. CRVAReporting

9. RiskPresentation

Climate Riskand

VulnerabilityAssessment

(CRVA) Steps


Steps involved in the tool:

The following sections describe the 9 steps used in the tool.

STEP-1: Sector Selection Annual Development Programme (ADP) of the Government of Bangladesh is

subdivided into 17 sectors under the four major Divisions (Planning Commission 2018).

Please tick (√) the respective category of your project.

1. □ Agriculture

2. □ Rural Development and Rural Institutes

3. □ Water Resources

4. □ Industries

5. □ Power

6. □ Oil, Gas and Natural Resources

7. □ Transport

8. □ Communication

9. □ Physical Planning, Water Supply and Housing

10. □ Education and Religious Affairs

11. □ Sports and Culture

12. □ Health, Nutrition, Population and Family Welfare

13. □ Mass Media

14. □ Social Welfare, Women Affairs and Youth Development

15. □ Public Administration

16. □ Science, Information and Communication Technology

17. □ Labour and Employment


STEP-2: Spatial Units Selection

The project activities will be carried out in any of the locations under the 64 districts of

Bangladesh. Please select location of the project. Please Tick (√) the district(s) of

project location. It could be more than one.

� Barishal � Bhola � Barguna � Jhalokathi � Patuakhali � Pirojpur � Bandarban � Brahmanbaria � Chandpur � Chattogram � Kumilla � Cox’z Bazar � Feni � Khagrachari � Lakshmipur � Noakhali � Rangamati � Dhaka � Faridpur � Gazipur � Gopalganj � Kishoreganj

� Madaripur � Manikganj � Munshiganj � Narayanganj � Narsingdi � Rajbari � Shariatpur � Tangail � Bagerhat � Chuadanga � Jashore � Jhenaidah � Khulna � Kustia � Magura � Meherpur � Narail � Satkhira � Bogura � Joypurhat � Naogaon � Natore

� Nawabganj � Pabna � Rajshahi � Sirajganj � Dinajpur � Gaibandha � Kurigram � Lalmonirhat � Nilphamari � Panchagarh � Rangpur � Thakurgaon � Habiganj � Moulvibazar � Sunamganj � Sylhet � Jamalpur � Mymensingh � Netrokona � Sherpur


STEP-3: Hazards Identification

Bangladesh is frequently affected by natural hazards. A total of 10 natural hazards have

been considered for this CRVA tool. Brief notes on Hazards of Bangladesh have been

listed in Appendix-1. Please select Hazard(s) for the respective district(s) identified in

step 2 by using the table given in Appendix-2.

� Cyclone � Drought � Earthquake � Erosion � Flash flood � Flood � Landslides � Salinity � Sea-level Rise � Storm Surge

STEP-4: Likelihood of Hazard

The bivariate Risk Matrix Method Developed by ADB (2016) has been applied to generate Risk Score (RS) as part of Climate Risk Screening (CRS) of Development Projects in Bangladesh. In a CRS, hazards clis will be sorted out first. Afterwards, the likelihood of all hazards will be assessed (Table 1), and classified into five grades:

i) Very Unlikely,

ii) Unlikely,

iii) Possibly,

iv) Likely, and

v) Almost Certain.

The likelihood or levels of probability of hazards for project implementation districts may vary depending on geographic location of the project. Based on the likelihood of the hazard in the specified locations, listed in Appendix 3, please assign respective scores to each hazard in Table 1 below. Please circle the respective number in the Table below.


Table 1: Likelihood of hazards in the Project Intervention Area.

Sl Hazards Very Unlikely Unlikely Possibly Likely Almost Certain

1 Cyclone 0

1 2 3 4

2 Drought 0 1 2 3 4 3 Earthquake 0 1 2 3 4 4 Erosion 0 1 2 3 4 5 Flood 0 1 2 3 4 6 Flashflood 0 1 2 3 4 7 Salinity 0 1 2 3 4 8 Sea-level rise 0 1 2 3 4 9 Landslide 0 1 2 3 4

10 Storm Surge 0 1 2 3 4

[Note: Please calculate Likelihood for each hazard, separately]

STEP-5: Consequences of Hazard Based on the Exposure and Vulnerability of hazard, please assign respective scores in Table 2 below. An Excel Template will be provided to calculate consequences (Table 2). Please circle respective box in the Table. The formula for calculating consequences is Consequences = (Exposure*0.7) + (Vulnerability*0.3) [Example: If the Exposure of a hazard is Very High (5) and Vulnerability (likelihood) is High (4), then Consequences of the hazard would be 4.7 (5*0.7+4*0.3 = 3.5+1.2 ).

Table 2: Consequences of Hazards

Vulnerability (0.3)

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Weight 1 2 3 4 5

Expo

sure

(0.7)

0.7

Very High 5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.7 5

0.7

High 4 3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.3

0.7

Moderate 3 2.4 2.7 3 3.3 3.6

0.7

Low 2 1.7 2 2.3 2.6 2.9

0.7

Very Low 1 1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2

Legend Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

1-1.8 1.9-2.6 2.7-3.4 3.5-4.2 4.2-5

Generalized Score of Consequence 1 2 3 4 5


[Note: Please calculate Consequences for each hazard, separately]

STEP-6: Risk Scoring (RS) In this step assess risk score by combining the scores for likelihood of hazards in the

project area as derived from Table 1 and Generalized Score of Consequences derived

in Table 2. Please circle the respective Risk Score in Table 3 below.

Table 3: Risk Score (RS)

Consequences

Very Low (1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High (5)

Like

lihoo

d

Almost Certain (4) Moderate (4) Moderate (8)

High (12) Extreme (16) Extreme (20)

Likely (3) Low (3) Moderate (6)

High (9) High (12) Extreme (15)

Possibly (2) Low (2) Moderate (4)

Moderate (6)

High (8) High (10)

Unlikely (1) Low (1) Low (2) Moderate (3)

Moderate (4)

Moderate (5)

Very Unlikely (0) Low (0) Low (0) Low (0) Low (0) Moderate (0)

Legend

Risk Level Risk Score (RS) Very Low Risk 1-4

Low Risk 5-8 Moderate Risk 9-12

High Risk 13-16 Very High Risk 17-20

[Example: If the Likelihood score of a hazard is Likely (3) and Consequences score is High (4), then the Risk Score (RS) of that hazard is 12. The Legend of Table 3 indicates that RS 12 corresponds to Moderate Risk]

STEP-7: Decision on CRS or CRVA

Score obtained from the multiplication of Likelihood of Hazard and Consequences in Step-6 will generate the Risk Score (RS). It is strongly suggested that RS are computed per hazard type pegged to politico-ecologic units first, then aggregated according to the


categories of climate, hydro-meteorological, seismic and geomorphological types. The total RS across these categories of hazards may be subsequently derived.

In effect, the RS will assign risk levels by disaggregated and aggregated hazard categories based on location of a project. A project with high RS will be assigned an Extreme Risk level and a project with 1 RS will be assigned a Low Risk level. Five risk levels are-

i. Very Low Risk ii. Low Risk, iii. Moderate Risk, iv. High Risk, and v. Very High Risk.

If the Risk Score (RS) becomes acceptable (RS≤8), the project needs to have only a CRS report. Steps 1-6 falls within CRS. A project with a RS>8 need to have a CRVA, i.e.

A. CRS : if, RS ≤ 8

B. CRVA : if, RS > 8

Statement based on Risk Score (please tick one)

� It has been assessed that RS≤8. Therefore, the project may have acceptable climatic Risk;

� It has been assessed that RS>8. Therefore, the project proposal need to have a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) report.

For RS≤8, the CRS report ends here with a statement that-

All hazards (please put the name of the hazards here) have been considered for the project concept, but no significant impacts have been identified and the findings will be outlined in the CRS Report. The CRS Reporting Template has been given in Appendix 4 and will be appended to the DPP.

STEP-8: CRVA Reporting

Risk screening is completed in the conceptual stage of a project. If the RS is equivalent to ‘Insignificant Understanding’ or ‘Low Risk’, then it is not necessary to undertake detailed CRVA for a pilot project under consideration. On the other hand, a project with Moderate to High RS requires a more in-depth study of risk in the form of a CRVA.


After passing the conceptual phase and having high scores (RS>8) in CRS calculation, a project will enter into Project Preparation Phase (Figure 1). The CRVA should be performed in this stage. The Asian Development Bank developed a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) model in early 2014 (ADB 2016) for its investments in Asia. The CRVA will be done in two steps as shown in Figure 3:

A. Climatic Risk Assessment;

B. Adaptation Assessment

Figure 3: Steps in CRVA study

A. Climatic Risk Assessment

Systemic steps in Climatic Risk Assessment and Adaptation Assessment (CRVA) have been shown in Figure 2. Climatic Risk Assessment (CRA) will be done in 6 steps expressed below:

A-1 Identification of Climate vulnerabilities

: Please explain climatic vulnerability in the project area. Climate vulnerabilities as indicated in STEP-3 needs to be listed in this section. Please add short notes on the vulnerabilities.

Climatic RiskAssessment

AdaptationAssessment

A-2. Biophysicaldrivers of vulnerability

A-3. Socioeconomicdrivers of vulnerability

A-4. CC Scenariosdevelopment

A-5. Estimation of futurebiophysical impacts

A-6. Impacts assessmenton Investment Project

B-1. Adaptationobjective setting

B-2. Identifyingpotential adaptation

options

B-3. Stakeholderconsultations

B-4. Economicanalysis

B-5. Select andprioritizing adaptation

option

A-1. Identification ofClimate Vulnerabilties


A-2 Identification of Biophysical drivers of vulnerability

: Please explain biophysical drivers of vulnerability in the project area. Physical and biological factors that are related to the vulnerability need to be identified and listed in this section. e.g. Vegetation, Infrastructure, etc.

A-3 Identification of Socioeconomic drivers of vulnerability

: Socioeconomic drivers, such as poverty and income status, livelihood opportunities and options for alternative livelihood needed to be addressed here. Poor socioeconomic condition will play positive role for the increase of vulnerability.

A-4 Climate Change Scenarios (CCS) development

: Please explain future trend of climate change in the project area. Decadal Scenarios of climatic variables will be developed here.

A-5 Estimation of Future Biophysical impacts

: Please explain future biophysical change in the project area. Vegetation change, Infrastructure projection, etc. CC Scenarios obtained in the previous steps will indicate the direction of biophysical hazard. This section will describe the biophysical hazards.

A-6 Impacts Assessment on Investment Project

: Please explain overall impacts of climate change on the planned project. Combined estimation in the previous steps (A-1 to A-5) will define CC impacts on Investment project.

B. Adaptation Assessment

Adaptation Assessment will be done in 5 steps, expressed below:

B-1 Adaptation Objective setting : First of all, Adaptation Objectives should be defined. e.g. Need salinity/drought tolerant species; need to protect an area from flood water of xx meter height, etc.

B-2 Identifying all potential Adaptation options

: An inventory of potential adaptation options should be developed. A brief note on each mode of adaptation should be presented in this step. See Annex for an outline on the adaptation options in the Agriculture sector.


B-3 Conducting consultations : Community and stakeholders should be consulted regarding identified adaptation options. Indigenous knowledge and community preferences could be reflected in this section.

B-4 Conducting Economic analysis

: An Economic Analysis should be performed for each adaptation option.

(Please see page 44-45 of the DPP Manual of Planning Commission 2014, for details on Benefit analysis and Economic analysis)

B-5 Select and prioritizing Adaptation option(s)

:

Preferences in Section B-3 and B-4 will guide to select appropriate adaptation options for the project. Based on community priority and economic analysis, the final adaptation options will be selected. Please select the best adaptation option or more (1-3) and include them in project component of the DPP with estimated cost.

Selection of the proper adaptation measures is the last and most important stage of CRVA Report. A template for reporting CRVA has been shown in Appendix 5. This report will be appended to the DPP when finalising the project design.

STEP-9: Risk Presentation

Estimated climatic risks can be presented in the form of maps and ancillary information from the decision support system Figure 3 illustrates the combined use of hazard (H) and impact (I) maps to generate risk (R) maps. Combination of historical hazards and current impacts will generated current risk map. On the other hand, combination of projected hazard maps and modelled socio-economic impacts map will generate Projected Risk Maps.

Conclusion Climatic geo-hazards hazards will impose threats to future development activities. However, a thorough checking of the hazard risks will be able to minimize the threat to future investments in development sectors. This CRS and CRVA tool has indicated a


gross guideline to have decision whether a project proposal needs a CRVA or not, before starting the implementation phase. A natural disaster does not maintain geographic boundary. Its boundary may vary than that of administrative one. However, this study generalized the boundary of hazards aligned with administrative boundary to facilitate government decision. Because, administrative boundary based decision is easy for data collection and vulnerability assessment. A CRVA tool could be downscaled to assess climate change risk of a project at upazila or union level. This CRVA tool will help Development Planners and implementation agencies in advance identification of climatic risks of new investments of Bangladesh.


Appendix 1: Hazards of Bangladesh

Due to its geographical location, Bangladesh is highly prone to climate/ weather-related and geophysical hazards. The Bay of Bengal in the south, the Indo-Burma range in the east, the Barind track in the north-west have caused natural hazards to persist in Bangladesh for centuries. For example, the funnel shaped south coast of Bangladesh makes it susceptible to cyclones and storm surges. In addition, bordered by the sea in the southern part of Bangladesh, the country experiences medium to high levels of soil salinity. This area is also expected to face sea level rise (SLR) in the near future. The Barind track in the northern and north-eastern side of Bangladesh faces frequent drought as well. Moreover, since Bangladesh is the largest delta in the world, with GBM (Ganges- Brahmaputra- Meghna) river system flowing towards the Bay of Bengal, a huge portion of its land area experiences frequent flood and flash floods along with river erosion. Also, the eastern parts of Bangladesh, comprising the Sylhet and Chattogram Divisions, are prone to earthquakes, landslides and flash floods.

Hazard profiles of Bangladesh has been presented below in brief:

Sea Level Rise: One third of the entire population of Bangladesh live in the coastal region. Ten percent of this zone is barely one meter above the mean sea level (msl) and one- third of this area is under tidal excursion. As such, the 730 km long coastline is threatened by the sea level rise.

Tropical Cyclones: The coastal zone experiences tropical cyclones with wind speed of different ranges almost in every year (Khalil, 1992). The deadliest cyclone events happened in 1970, 1992 and 2007, which caused death tolls of 500,000, 148,000 and 4,234, respectively (Dasgupta et al., 2011).

Storm Surges: Cyclones become deadlier when they are accompanied by storm surges. In 1970 and 1991, tropical cyclones were more devastating because of their accompanying storm surge. The storm of 1970 resulted in a storm surge of 9 metres. Houses, crops and hundreds of thousands of livestock were swept away (German Watch, 2004).

Salinity: Salinity is a great problem along the coastal zone of Bangladesh, especially in the districts meeting the Bay of Bengal. However, Salinity problem is severe in the southwestern coastal zone. Soil and water salinity affect agricultural crops, but water salinity affects fisheries resources of the country. About 53 percent of the coastal region is affected by modest to extreme levels of salinity, which lowered the soil fertility of this area (Haque, 2006).

Flood: A massive area of Bangladesh is within the estuary of three large rivers – Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna. As a result, disastrous floods often hit Bangladesh. During the heavy river floods in 1992 and 1998, more than half of the national territory was flooded (German Watch, 2004). The recent flood in 2017 3,917,184 people in 24 districts and damaged 309,542 hectares of cropland (Relief Web, 2017a).


Flash Flood: Though not so common, Bangladesh often experiences devastating flash floods during the monsoon or pre-monsoon season. Heavy rainfalls and the onrush of water from the upstream Meghalaya hills in India inundates vast areas of croplands in Haors and low-lying areas of northeast Bangladesh. Such floods affect six districts, namely: Sylhet, Moulavibazar, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Netrokona and Kishoreganj.

Erosion: Within the confluence of the three mighty rivers and tributaries, Bangladesh has substantially experienced river bank erosion. The Jamuna and the Padma alone erode some 3000 hectares of land each monsoon, which could make up 5 to 6000 hectares each year (Roy, 2014). Erosion in Bangladesh are due to drought and anthropogenic activities as well.

Landslides: Triggered by heavy monsoon rains, southeastern Bangladesh succumbs to landslides almost every year. For example, during the monsoon season in 2017, rainfall-induced landslides affected 5 districts (i.e. Bandarban, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Khagrachari and, Rangamati.) and a total of 80,000 persons. These landslides claimed around 135 lives (Relief Web, 2017c).

Drought: Drought-prone areas are mainly located in the northwestern and northern regions of Bangladesh and are spread over an area of 5.46 million hectares in the districts of Chapai Nawabganj, Naogaon, Rajshahi, Natore, Rangpur, Dinajpur, Joypurjhat, Pabna and Bogura. Among the regions, the northwestern Barind tract is especially drought-prone. Droughts are associated with the late arrival or an early withdrawal of monsoon rains and are also due to intermittent dry spells. The consecutive droughts of 1978 and 1979 directly affected 42% of cultivated land and reduced rice production by an estimated 2 million tons. The 1997 drought caused a reduction of around 1 million tons of food grain, of which about 0.6 million tons is transplanted Aman, entailing a loss of around US$ 500 million.

Earthquake: The Barind region is site of the Dauki and Madhupur faults, due to which Bangladesh experienced past earthquakes and may face major earthquake in the future. Another fault located in Bangladesh is the Chattogram- Arakan fault, which poses risks as well.


Appendix 2: List of Districts and Respective Hazards

Division District Potential Hazards Note

Barishal 1. Barishal C, Er, F, SS C = Cyclone D = Drought Eq = Earthquake Er = Erosion F = Flood FF = Flash flood S = Salinity SLR = Sea-level Rise L= landslides SS= Storm Surge

2. Bhola C, Er, F, S, SLR, SS 3. Barguna C, Er, F, FF,S, SLR, SS 4. Jhalokati S, Er, F, S 5. Patuakhali C, Er, F, S, SS 6. Pirojpur C, Er, FF,S, SLR

Chattogram 7. Bandarban Er, Eq, FF, L 8. Brahmanbaria Er, F, FF,S, SLR 9. Chandpur Er, F 10. Chattogram C, FF, SLR, Eq, L 11. Cumilla Er, F 12. Cox’z Bazar C, Er, FF, S, SLR, L 13. Feni C, Er, F, S, SLR 14. Khagrachhori C, Er, F, FF, Eq, L 15. Lakshmipur C, Er, F,S, SLR 16. Noakhali C, Er, F, FF,S, SLR 17. Rangamati C, FF,S, SLR, Eq, L

Dhaka 18. Dhaka F 19. Faridpur Er, F 20. Gazipur F 21. Gopalganj Er, F, S 22. Kishoreganj Er, F, FF 23. Madaripur Er, F 24. Manikganj Er, F, Eq 25. Munshiganj Er, F 26. Narayonganj Er, F, 27. Narsingdi F 28. Rajbari Er, F 29. Shariatpur Er, F 30. Tangail Er, F

Khulna 31. Bagerhat C, Er, F, FF,S, SLR 32. Chuadanga Er, F 33. Jessore Er, F 34. Jhenaidah F, S, 35. Khulna C, Er, F, S, SLR, SS 36. Kustia F, Er, S 37. Magura Er, F, S, D 38. Meherpur Er, F, D, S 39. Narail Er, S, F 40. Satkhira Er, S, SLR, F

Rajshahi 41. Bogura C, Er, F, D 42. Joypurhat Er, F, D 43. Naogaon Er, F, D, S


44. Natore Dr, F 45. Nawabganj C, Er, F, D 46. Pabna Er, F, D 47. Rajshahi Er, F, D 48. Sirajganj Er, F, D

Rangpur 49. Dinajpur Dr, Er, F 50. Gaibandha Er, F 51. Kurigram C, Er, F, D 52. Lalmonirhat Er, F, D 53. Nilphamari Er, F, D 54. Panchagarh Er, F, D 55. Rangpur Er, F, D, Eq 56. Thakurgaon Er, F, D

Sylhet 57. Habiganj Er, FF, F, FF 58. Moulvibazar Er, F, FF 59. Sunamganj Er, F, FF 60. Sylhet Er, F, FF

Mymensingh 61. Jamalpur Er, F 62. Mymensingh Er, Eq, F 63. Netrokona Eq, Er, F, FF 64. Sherpur Er, F, Eq


Appendix-3: Likelihood of Hazard in 64 Districts of Bangladesh


Reference

1 Cyclone

Dinajpur, Gaibandha, Joypurhat, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Naogaon, Nawabganj, Panchagarh, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Thakurgaon,

Bogura, Gazipur, Hobiganj, Jamalpur, Keshoreganj, Mymensingh, Moulvibazar, Netrokona, Natore, Sherpur, Sylhet, Sirajganj, Sunamganj, Tangail,

Brahmanbara Chuadanga, Dhaka, Faridpur, Jhenaidah, Kustia, Meherpur, Magura, Manikganj, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Pabna, Rajbari,

Bandarban, Cumilla, Chandpur, Gopalganj, Jashore, Khagrachari, Madaripur, Narail, Rangamati, Shariatpur,

Bhola, Barisal, Barguna, Bagerhat Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Feni, Jhalokhati, Khulna, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Satkhira,

Islam and Peterson (2009)

2 Drought

Brahmanbaria, Chandpur, Keshoreganj, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Netrokona, Noakhali, Sunamganj,

Bhola, Gaibandha, Gopalganj, Hobiganj, Jamalpur, Lakshmipur, Moulvibazar, Mymensingh, Madaripur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, Shariatpur, Sherpur, Sylhet,

Bandarban, Bagerhat Barisal, Barguna, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Cumilla, Dhaka, Feni, Faridpur, Gazipur, Jhalokathi, Kustia, Khagrachari, Manikganj, Narail, Nilphamari, Panchagarh, Pirojpur, Patuakhali, Rangamati, Rajbari, Tangail,

Chuadanga, Jashore, Jhenaidah, Khulna, Magura, Meherpur, Sirajganj, Satkhira, Thakurgaon,

Bogura, Dinajpur, Joypurhat, Nawabganj, Naogaon, Natore, Pabna, Rajshahi, Rangpur,

BARC (2000)

3 Earthquake

- Bagerhat, Chuadanga, Faridpur, Gopalganj, Jhenaidah, Jashore, Kustia, Khulna, Meherpur, Madaripur, Magura, Narail, Rajbari, Satkhira, Shariatpur,

Bogura, Dinajpur, Gazipur, Joypurhat, Nilphamari, Naogaon, Nawabganj, Natore, Narshingdi, Panchagarh, Pabna, Rajshahi, Sirajganj, Tangail, Thakurgaon, Brahmanbara

Gaibandha, Hobiganj, Jamalpur, Keshoreganj, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat Moulvibazar, Mymensingh, Netrokona, Rangpur, Sylhet, Sunamganj, Sherpur,

- Islam et al. (2016), GSB (2000)



Reference

Barguna, Bhola, Barisal, Jhalokathi, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Pirojpur,

Bandarban, Chandpur, Chattogram, Cumilla, Cox’s Bazar, Dhaka, Feni, Khagrachari, Munshiganj, Manikganj, Narayanganj Rangamati,

4 Erosion

Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Dinajpur, Khagrachari, Noakhali, Panchagarh, Rangamati, Thakurgaon, Sunamganj,

Hobiganj, Jashore, Moulvibazar, Meherpur, Magura, Narail, Netrokona, Sherpur, Sylhet,

Bagerhat, Gopalganj, Joypurhat, Khulna, Satkhira,

Cumilla, Dhaka, Lakshmipur, Madaripur, Narayanganj, Shariatpur,

Bogura, Bhola, Barisal, Barguna, Chandpur, Faridpur, Gaibandha, Jhalokathi, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Pirojpur, Patuakhali, Rajbari, Rajbari Sirajganj, Tangail,

CEGIS (undated), Sarwar and Woodroffe (2013)

5 Flood

Bandarban, Bagerhat, Khagrachari, Khulna, Rangamati, Satkhira,

Barguna, Barisal, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Chuadanga, Dinajpur, Feni, Jhalokathi, Jashore, Jhenaidah, Keshoreganj, Magura, Meherpur, Netrokona, Nilphamari, Noakhali, Narail, Pirojpur, Patuakhali, Panchagarh, Sherpur, Sunamganj,

Dhaka, Gopalganj, Gazipur, Lakshmipur, Mymensingh, Madaripur, Narsingdi, Thakurgaon,

Brahmanbara Cumilla, Kustia, Natore, Rangpur,

Bogura, Bhola, Chandpur, Faridpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Munshiganj, Manikganj, Nawabganj, Narayanganj, Pabna, Rajbari, Rajshahi, Sirajganj, Shariatpur, Tangail,

BARC (2000)

6 Flashflood

Rest of Bangladesh

- Bandarban, Khagrachari, Rangamati

Feni Hobiganj, Moulvibazar, Sylhet,

Keshoreganj, Netrokona, Sunamganj

BARC (2000)

7 Salinity North Bengal, Rest of Barisal, Feni, Bagerhat, Haque



Reference

Haor area Bangladesh Magura, Shariatpur,

Gopalganj, Jashore, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Narail,

Bhola, Barguna, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Jhalokathi, Khulna, Pirojpur, Patuakhali, Satkhira,

(2006)

8 Sea-level rise

North Bengal Rest of Bangladesh

Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Chandpur, Gopalganj, Shariatpur,

Barisal, Barguna, Khulna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Satkhira

Bhola Feni, Noakhali,

Sarwar (2013)

9 Landslide

- - - Sylhet Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Khagrachari, Rangamati,

Sarwar (2008)

10 Storm Surge

Bandarban, Bogura, Dinajpur, Gaibandha, Gazipur Hobiganj, Joypurhat, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Keshoreganj, Khagrachari, Lalmonirhat, Mymenshingh, Moulvibazar, Netrokona, Nilphamari, Naogaon, Nawabganj, Natore, Panchagarh, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Rangamati, Sherpur, Sirajganj Sunamganj, Sylhet, Tangail, Thakurgaon, Chuadanga, Dhaka, Jhenaidah, Kustia, Meherpur, Magura, Manikganj,

Brahmanbaria, Cumilla,

Gopalganj, Jashore, Madaripur, Narail, Shariatpur,

Barisal, Bagerhat, Jhalokhati, Khulna, Pirojpur, Satkhira,

Barguna, Bhola, Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Chandpur, Feni, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Patuakhali,

Sarwar (2013)



Reference

Munshiganj, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Pabna, Rajbari, Sirajganj,


Appendix-4: Climate Risk Screening (CRS) Reporting Template

Climate Change Risks Screening (CRS) for Development Project

CRS Reporting Template I. Basic Project Information

Project Title: Project Cost: Location: Sector/subsector(s): Theme: Objectives Brief Project Description:

II. Summary of Climate Risk Screening

A. Hazards, Exposure and Vulnerability of Project Component(s) to Climate and Associated Geophysical Hazards, including Historical and Projected Climate Change Scenarios

Vulnerability/Sensitivity to Hazards and Exposure Identified in A:

Project Component(s): 1.

2. Strengthened capacity for project management and operation and maintenance.

B. Climate Risk Screening Risk(s) Level of Risk(s)

Climate Risk Classification:

III. Climate Risk Management Measures within the Project

……………………………………………………………………………………………………


Appendix-5: Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) Reporting Template

Climate Risks and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) for Development Project

CRVA Reporting Template

1. Project Information

Project ID

Project Title

Total Costt (BDT)

Ministry

Agency

Project Location

Sector/subsector(s)

Project Components

Brief Project Description

2. Climate Projections

Variable Baseline: Period. Projection: Future time slice, scenario, GCMs Maps

Temperature (From DSS)

Precipitation

3. Screening Natural Hazard


Type Overall Risk/ Hazard (1)

Consequences (2) Climate Variables (3)

Earthquake

Evaluation

Landslide

Evaluation

Flash flood

Evaluation Climate Change Implication

Flood Evaluation Climate Change Assessment

Drought

Evaluation Climate Change Cyclone

Evaluation

Climate Change Assessment

Storm Surges

Evaluation


Sea-level rise

Evaluation


Salinity

Evaluation


Erosion

Evaluation Climate Change Assessment

[NB: 1= Risk score of a hazard; 2=Consequences of the hazard as calculated in Step-5; 3= hazard related climate variables]


4. Summary of Screening Results Natural Hazard / Climate Impact Project Components Overall Scoring Multi-Hazard Index Climate Change

Impact Categorization

[NB: Derived from previous step]

5. Sector-Specific Climate Risks Sensitive Climate Variables Climate Change Impact Analyses

Components

6. Required Action

Recommendations

[NB: Adaptation measures should be described here]

[Please use extra pages, if needed]


Appendix 6: Terminologies used in this tool

Exposure: The situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas.

Measures of exposure can include the number of people or types of assets in an area. These can be combined with the specific vulnerability and capacity of the exposed elements to any particular hazard to estimate the quantitative risks associated with that hazard in the area of interest.

Hazard: A process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.

Hazards may be natural, anthropogenic or socio-natural in origin. Natural hazards are predominantly associated with natural processes and phenomena. Anthropogenic hazards are induced entirely or predominantly by human activities and choices. This term does not include the occurrence or risk of armed conflicts and other situations of social instability or tension which are subject to international humanitarian law and national legislation. Several hazards are socio-natural, in that they are associated with a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including environmental degradation and climate change.

Impacts: Impact is the total effect, including negative effects (e.g., economic losses) and positive effects (e.g., economic gains), of a hazardous event or a disaster. The term includes economic, human and environmental impacts, and may include death, injuries, disease and other negative effects on human physical, mental and social well-being.

Risk: The potential loss of life, injury, or destroyed or damaged assets which could occur to a system, society or a community in a specific period of time, determined probabilistically as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity.

The definition of disaster risk reflects the concept of hazardous events and disasters as the outcome of continuously present conditions of risk. Disaster risk comprises different types of potential losses which are often difficult to quantify.

Vulnerability: The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards.

For positive factors which increase the ability of people to cope with hazards, see also the definitions of “Capacity” and “Coping capacity”.

(Source: UNISDR 2017)

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/terminology/v.php?id=7831


Adaptation Options in Agriculture Sector Investments 14. Adaptation options in agriculture sector projects may generally be grouped into engineering (or structural) options, non-engineering options, and biophysical options. It may be noted that a decision not to act, or to maintain a business as usual approach (“do nothing option”) should also be retained as one possible option: In a number of circumstances, recommendations based on the findings of the technical and economic analysis of adaptation options may be to not climate proof a specific development project, as shown in the figure below.

Figure 4: Selected Adaptation Options in Agriculture Sector Investments

“Do nothing” Option

• Water resources management • Infrastructure operation • Maintenance planning • Master planning and land use

planning • Farm operation management • Environmental management • Training/capacity building

• Material specifications • Dimension and capacity standards • Drainage and soil conservation • Protective engineering structures • High efficiency irrigation

• Plant breeding

Adaptation Options

Engineering

Options (structural)

Biophysical Option

Non-engineering

Options


References

ADB 2016. Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Water Sector, Publication Stock No. TIM168062-2, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Metro Manila, the Philippines.

ADB 2014. Climate Risk Management in ADB Projects, Publication No. ARM146926-2, Climate Change Adaptation Focal Point, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, the Philippine.

BARC 2000. Pre-kharip Drought Prone areas Map, Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council (BARC), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), GoB.

Dasgupta S, Huq M, Khan Z H, Ahmed M M Z, Mukherjee N, Khan M F and Pandey K 2011. Cyclones in a Changing Climate: The Case of Bangladesh. Accessed on 23 January 2018 from http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/adaptation/docs/Dasgupta,%20Cyclones%20in%20a%20Changing%20Climate-The%20Case%20of%20Bangladesh%20(updated).pdf .

GSB 2000. Earthquake Zone Map, Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB), Dhaka.

German Watch 2004. Sea-Level Rise in Bangladesh and the Netherlands One Phenomenon, Many Consequences. German Watch. https://germanwatch.org/download/klak/fb-ms-e.pdf. Accessed on 24 Jan, 2018.

Haque S A 2006. Salinity Problems and Crop Production In Coastal Regions Of Bangladesh. Pak. J. Bot. 38(5): 1359-1365

Islam T, Peterson RE 2009. Climatology of landfalling tropical cyclones in Bangladesh 1877-2003, Natural Hazards 48: 115-135.

Papathoma-Köhle M, Promper C, Glade C 2016. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies, Climate 4(8), doi:10.3390/cli4010008.

Planning Commission 2014, Development Project Proforma/ Proposal (DPP) Manual: Instructions for Preparing Developing Project Proposal. Part 1 and Part 2. Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka. March 2014.

Planning Commission 2012. Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR). General Economics Division (GED), Planning Commission, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Dhaka.

Relief Web 2017a. Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh. Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/monsoon-floods-bangladesh-situation-report-02- 16-august-2017. Accessed on 24 January, 2018.

Relief Web 2017b. Bangladesh: Flash Flood Situation. Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/bangladesh-flash-flood-situation-april-19-2017. Accessed on January 24, 2018

Relief Web 2017c. Bangladesh: Floods and Landslides. Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ls-2017-000068-bgd. Accessed on 24 January, 2018.

Roy P 2014. New hope for erosion-hit Bangladesh. The Third Pole.net. Accessed on 24 January, 2018 from https://www.thethirdpole.net/2014/09/18/new-hope-for-erosion-hit-bangladesh/

http://www.gwu.edu/%7Eiiep/adaptation/docs/Dasgupta,%20Cyclones%20in%20a%20Changing%20Climate-The%20Case%20of%20Bangladesh%20(updated).pdf

http://www.gwu.edu/%7Eiiep/adaptation/docs/Dasgupta,%20Cyclones%20in%20a%20Changing%20Climate-The%20Case%20of%20Bangladesh%20(updated).pdf

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ls-2017-000068-bgd

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/ls-2017-000068-bgd

https://www.thethirdpole.net/2014/09/18/new-hope-for-erosion-hit-bangladesh/


Sarwar MGM 2013. Sea-level Rise Along the Coast of Bangladesh, In Shaw R, Mallick F, Islam A (Ed.), Disaster Risk Reduction Approaches in Bangladesh, Springer.

Sarwar MGM, Woodroffe C 2013. Rates of shoreline change along the coast of Bangladesh, Journal of Coastal Conservation 17(3): 515-526.

Sarwar MGM 2008. Landslide Tragedy of Bangladesh, The First World Landslide Forum, United Nations University (UNU), 18-21 November 2008, Tokyo, Japan.

UNISDR 2017. Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, accessed on 10 August 2018 from https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology


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