4.0 summary of the environmental impact ......the calmet model is applied to a 240 km by 380 km area...

MEADOW CREEK WEST PROJECT VOLUME 2 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Summary of the Environmental Impact Assessment September 2017

Suncor Energy Inc. 4.1

4.0 SUMMARY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The Meadow Creek West Project (the Project) Application and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) address the requirements of the Project Terms of Reference (TOR), Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) Draft Directive 023: Oil Sands Project Applications and the Guide to Content for Energy Project Applications.

The EIA defines the Project in sufficient detail to identify potential environmental interactions and to evaluate and discuss these interactions in the context of potential residual and cumulative effects. The EIA establishes evaluation criteria for valued components as outlined in the Project TOR, applicable regulatory and land use guidance and stakeholder interests. This EIA is organized into 18 sections and supporting appendices. The first four sections introduce the Project, describe the methods used in the assessment and summarize the environmental setting and results of the EIA. Section 5 through Section 18 assesses the effects of the Project on valued components for three assessment scenarios: the base case, application case and planned development case (PDC). The following section provides a summary of Section 5 through Section 18.

4.1 AIR QUALITY

The Air Quality assessment identifies and evaluates potential emissions from the Project and other emission sources in the region (see Section 5). The assessment focuses on concentration and deposition predictions for the air quality local study area (LSA) and the regional study area (RSA).

The CALPUFF transport and dispersion model and the associated CALMET meteorological model were the primary tools used to assess changes in air quality associated with the Project. The CALMET model is applied to a 240 km by 380 km area nominally centred on the Project (i.e., the model domain). The CALPUFF model was applied to smaller LSA and RSA regions to examine the effect of Project emissions on air quality. A 55 km by 40 km area for the LSA, included the nearby communities. A 200 km by 335 km area for the RSA included nearby communities, the conventional oil sands developments to the north of Fort McMurray and the in situ bitumen extraction developments in the Leismer and Christina Lake regions and extended into Saskatchewan.

Suncor will incorporate mitigation measures into the final design of the Project. This includes: cogeneration for heat and electricity generation and improving energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, low emission gas turbines and low-NOX burner technology for steam generators and heaters.



4.2 Suncor Energy Inc.

The three primary assessment cases (i.e., base, application and planned development) were used to determine the effect of Project emissions on ambient air quality. Where relevant, maximum ambient concentrations associated with each assessment case are compared to the respective ambient air quality criteria. The assessment focused on showing maximum predicted values that, for the most part, are based on worst-case meteorological conditions and worst-case locations, which tend to predict maxima along or near facility boundaries. The assessment results are as follows:

NOX

• Maximum NO2 concentrations in the LSA attributable to the Project and other sources are less than the 1-hour and annual Alberta ambient air quality objective (AAAQO) for all assessment cases.

• Ambient 1-hour and annual NO2 concentrations greater than the AAAQO are predicted to occur outside the LSA and inside the RSA.

SO2

• Maximum SO2 concentrations in the LSA attributable to the Project and other sources are less than the 1-hour, 24-hour, 30-day and annual AAAQO for all assessment cases.

• Maximum predicted one-hour SO2 concentrations associated with upset flaring in the LSA is also less than the 300 µg/m3 AAAQO.

• Ambient 1-hour, 24-hour, 30-day and annual SO2 concentrations greater than the AAAQO are predicted to occur outside the LSA and inside the RSA.

PM2.5

Maximum predicted 24-hour concentrations for all assessment cases are greater than 30 µg/m3 AAAQO.

H2S

Ambient H2S concentrations are less than the AAAQO.

Health and Odour-related Substances

With the exception of PM2.5, the predicted concentrations are less than the respective AAAQO at the identified human health risk assessment receptor locations in the LSA.




Acid Forming Substance Deposition

Generally, negative potential acid input (PAI) depositions are predicted for all the grid cells for all the cases. There are isolated locations within and near existing, approved and planned operations where the PAI is greater than the 0.17 keq H+/ha/a deposition load.

Nitrogen Deposition

Nitrogen deposition less than 5 kg N/ha/a is predicted to occur in the area around the Project.

Ozone

Project emissions are not expected to result in any substantive increases in the photochemical production of O3.

Visibility

The Project is not expected to result in substantive changes in regional haze relative to the base case.

Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases (GHG) emission intensity for Project operation is based on the annual GHG emissions divided by the total Project production bitumen capacity in bbl/d. The corresponding CO2e emission intensity for the Project is based on a production capacity of 40,000 bbl/d; the corresponding emission intensity is 86 kg CO2e/bbl. This value is the same as the average for other similar developments.

4.2 ACOUSTIC ENVIRONMENT

Project activities may result in noise effects on the surrounding acoustic environment (see Section 6). The AER regulates sound levels from energy projects in Alberta. The regulatory noise control requirements are defined in AER Directive 038: Noise Control. The requirements of Directive 038 have been applied to this acoustic environment assessment.

The acoustic assessment was carried out for the Acoustic LSA and RSA. The LSA is based on the 1.5 km criteria boundary recommended in Directive 038 for nighttime sound levels from industrial facilities. The RSA extends 5 km from the Project footprint based on noise limits also established by AER Directive 038, which indicates that noise emissions beyond this distance are not expected to contribute to cumulative effects.




Mitigation measures to address noise effects during construction and decommissioning as recommended in Directive 038 will be applied. The directive also requires that licensees investigate and resolve noise complaints, and provides detailed investigation procedures. If a noise complaint is received, Suncor will conduct a noise complaint investigation.

application case residual effects on the acoustic environment from past and present regulated facilities in the RSA in combination with those of the Project will not overlap in such a way as to exceed Directive 38 thresholds. Residual effects are expected to comply with regulatory guidelines. The Project application case will result in an increase of overall cumulative noise effects in the RSA. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be low. Residual cumulative effects are reversible and will cease once the Project and other facilities are no longer operational.

4.3 HYDROGEOLOGY

The hydrogeology assessment considers groundwater resources that could be directly or indirectly affected by the Project and evaluates potential changes in groundwater quantity and groundwater quality (see Section 7).

Groundwater withdrawals have the potential to reduce water levels in watercourses, waterbodies and wetlands. The potential effects of water withdrawals from local non-saline groundwater aquifers were assessed as part of the hydrogeology impact assessment completed for Meadow Creek East (MCE). Several factors influence the magnitude of this effect, including hydraulic communication between the aquifer units, groundwater-in-storage, the location of planned groundwater withdrawals, withdrawal rates and other users of the groundwater resources.The hydrogeology impact assessment for MCE determined that after planned mitigation and management measures, planned groundwater withdrawals of 6,219 m3/d from the Grand Rapids C and Empress formations will not result in adverse effects to those aquifers, overlying aquifers or surface water bodies (Section 7, Appendix 7A). Since the completion of the MCE hydrogeology impact assessment, through design improvements the total make-up water requirement for the two projects combined (MCE and MCW) is 5,950 m3/d. The conclusion that planned groundwater withdrawals for surface facilities, wastewater disposal, and production and steaming is assessed as having no effect on groundwater levels in the Shallow Non-saline Quaternary Aquifers, the Leismer Channel Aquifer and the Lower Grand Rapids Aquifer remains valid. As the hydrogeology LSA includes both MCE and MCW Project areas, and planned groundwater withdrawals will not result in adverse effects to those aquifers, overlying aquifers or surface water bodies.

Wastewater disposal might affect the natural equilibrium of the target aquifer by increasing hydraulic heads, thereby affecting groundwater quantity and flow direction. Saline groundwater quality can also be changed.




Groundwater quality might also be affected in the case of an accidental release during construction and operation of surface facilities, or during the injection of steam into wells, which will increase the local groundwater temperature and solubility of some minerals near the steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) well bores (i.e., thermal mobilization). In aquifers, thermal plumes will develop as heat energy is transferred through the steel casing and thermal cement to the aquifer and groundwater. This can lead to changes in groundwater quality. Damage to casings and cement during operations could result in underground releases of bitumen, potentially affecting groundwater quality.

The hydrogeology LSA boundary includes MCE lands, Townships (Twp) 83 to 86, Ranges (Rge) 7 to 12, provincial parks and recreation areas, and parts of the Leismer, Hangingstone (North and South) and Gregoire channels, some of which are used for source water for other oil sands projects. The RSA boundary includes regional groundwater and surface water control features such as the Athabasca River and Clearwater River and extends to the Saskatchewan border.

The Project has the potential to result in changes to groundwater quality from construction and operation of surface facilities as well as through production and steaming, including leakage from well casings. Mitigation measures will be implemented to reduce project-related effects on groundwater quality. The mitigation measures proposed for the Project are consistent with regulatory guidelines and reflect best management practices for oil and gas developments. A site assessment and baseline monitoring will take place along with the implementation of a groundwater management plan for the life of the Project. Residual effects on shallow non-saline groundwater as a result of project construction and operation of surface facilities will result in a high magnitude effect due to the potential for an accidental release adversely affecting groundwater quality. The geographic extent would be limited to the footprint and is considered to be reversible with mitigation measures in place. Residual effects related to production and steaming are expected to be adverse due to thermally dependent soluble elements and their potential to affect groundwater quality. The magnitude of the effect is predicted to be high; however, it will be limited geographically to the footprint. The effect will be continuous and long term throughout the operation phase of the Project, however will be reversible once the production and steaming has ended.

Should an accidental release occur at the surface facilities of planned projects in the RSA, the effects are expected to be localized and contained within their respective lease boundaries. The operators of any adjacent projects in the RSA, will also be required to manage thermal plumes generated in accordance with their operating approval conditions. As such, the potential for a cumulative effect with the Project as a result of an accidental spill is unlikely and there is no predicted cumulative effect associated with the thermal plume development resulting from other developments. The Project is not expected to contribute to cumulative effects associated with groundwater quality.




With the planned monitoring programs and proposed mitigation measures, residual effects on groundwater quality are predicted to be of low environmental consequence.

Follow-up and monitoring will include development of a groundwater management plan (GMP) that will be a condition of the Project’s approval. The GMP will comprise a site assessment, baseline monitoring and a groundwater monitoring plan.

4.4 AQUATICS

4.4.1 Introduction

Project activities can directly and indirectly affect hydrology (see Section 8) and surface water quality (see Section 9) in watercourses and waterbodies. Project effects are also assessed on fish and fish habitat and benthic invertebrates and benthic invertebrate habitat (see Section 10).

4.4.2 Interactions

Project activities during construction and operation that have the potential to affect aquatic environments including those that change land cover (clearing of vegetation and soil), watercourse crossings, hydrostatic testing, groundwater and surface water withdrawals and release and SAGD well operation and production. Project construction has the potential to cause serious harm to fish through changes in fish habitat availability, the creation of barriers to fish movement, direct mortality, and the release of deleterious substances to watercourses and waterbodies.

4.4.3 Study Area

The aquatic local study area (ALSA) is delineated by sub-watershed boundaries where direct effects from the Project are expected to occur. The aquatic regional study area (ARSA) includes the drainage areas upstream and downstream of the Project where direct and indirect effects from the Project have the potential to interact cumulatively with other developments in the region. This includes the Hangingstone River, Horse River and Little Horse Creek watersheds.

Specific to surface water quality, the lake acidification study area (LASA) is an area specifically defined to assess lake acidification. This area was based on the potential extent of air emission effects on waterbodies and was assumed to be 125 km by 150 km around the Project area.




4.4.4 Mitigation and Monitoring

Mitigation measures were designed to reduce or avoid interactions with waterbodies and watercourses for activities occurring during construction, operations, and reclamation, and thereby mitigating potential effects to aquatic resources. All applicable regulatory notifications, permits, and authorizations, as required, will be obtained before the start of construction near watercourses and waterbodies. Where Project activities have the potential to interact with watercourses or waterbodies, the appropriate codes of practices (COPs) and guidelines, including mitigation measures and restricted activity period guidance, will be followed.

Activities near water will be carried out following standard guidance that reduces effects on surface water quality, hydrology and fish. Legislated requirements, regulatory guidelines, and accepted industry BMPs that have been vetted by regulatory agencies will be used during construction of the pipeline, roads, and facilities to minimize the effects on aquatic resources.

Given the presence of currently operating Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program (RAMP) and Water Survey of Canada (WSC) hydrometric stations in the ALSA and ARSA, hydrology and fisheries monitoring programs are not anticipated during the construction, operation and reclamation phases of the Project. Wetland monitoring will be conducted as part of the Wetland and Waterbody Monitoring Plan to monitor Project-related effects.

4.4.5 Hydrology

Land cover at the ARSA and ALSA scales play an important role in determining the hydrological regime. A deterministic model (HEC-HMS) was used to characterize the hydrology of the ALSA sub-watersheds under base case conditions and to assess potential Project effects.

Interactions between Project activities and hydrology can result in changes in hydrology due to altered flow. The hydrological model predicts a negligible change for all flow metrics and the predicted effects equate to less than a 10% relative change from base case. With the implementation of mitigation measures and accepted best management practices, the residual effect on hydrology is predicted to be negligible. As measurable changes at the watershed scale are unlikely, the direction is expected to be neutral. The land cover change, as a major control on runoff generation, is continuous, long term and reversible. Overall the residual environmental effects on hydrology are predicted to be of low consequence.

Given that the overall residual effect of the Project on hydrology is predicted to be negligible at a local, sub-watershed scale, cumulative effects are not considered.




4.4.6 Surface Water Quality

Project effects on surface water quality related to construction of project facilities, waste management, accidental spills and water withdrawals from watercourses and waterbodies were assessed as part of the fisheries assessment. Project effects on surface water quality related to production and steam injection, and groundwater heating were discussed as part of the hydrogeology assessment. With mitigation and management measures in place, the environmental consequence for surface water quality is predicted to be low for theses activities.

Emissions from the Project are predicted to have the potential to change the pH of waterbodies. Acidification of surface waters can occur directly, through deposition on the water surface, or indirectly, through contact with the terrestrial ecosystem before entering the aquatic system. Seasonal changes in pH can also occur naturally during spring snowmelt and during the fall from decomposing plant material. Air emissions from the Project, combined with other air emissions, can affect the pH of lakes in the LASA.

Based on PAI modelling results for the ALSA, all waterbodies included in the assessment were predicted to have negative PAI under the base case, indicating that the air deposition of sulphuric and nitric acids from NOx and SOx emissions is not acidifying. The effects of the change in PAI is adverse in direction, negligible to low in magnitude, regional in extent, long-term in duration, and continuous in frequency. The effect is considered reversible over the long term.

For the ARSA, PAI modelling results indicated that all waterbodies included in the assessment were predicted to have negative (i.e., not acidifying) PAI under the PDC, except for Gregoire Lake. Cumulatively, the change in PAI is adverse in direction, negligible to high in magnitude for individual waterbodies, regional in extent, long-term in duration, and continuous in frequency. The effect is considered reversible over the long-term.

Overall, the residual and cumulative effect of the Project on surface water quality is predicted to be of low consequence.

4.4.7 Fisheries

Potential effects of the Project on fisheries include alteration of fish habitat, loss of habitat, and fish mortality during the construction, operation, and reclamation phases. With the appropriate mitigation measures and environmental protection measures, residual effects of the Project on fisheries during construction, operation, and reclamation are predicted to be low in magnitude, short term in duration, and reversible. Residual effects of the Project on fisheries related to fishing pressure are predicted to be low in magnitude, long term in duration, and reversible (as related to a fishery).




Cumulatively, the Project is not expected to interact with other projects and planned physical disturbances in the ARSA therefore no cumulative effect on the alteration and loss of fish habitat is predicted. The spatial extent of residual effects on fish mortality, related to change in water quality (i.e., total suspended sediment (TSS)), direct mortality, and change in fish condition, is also predicted to not overlap with the effects of other physical activities in the ARSA. Therefore, the Project is unlikely to contribute to cumulative environmental effects on fish condition and mortality risk in the ARSA. However, the spatial extent of residual effects on fish mortality, related to increased fishing pressure is predicted to overlap with the effects of other planned development in the ARSA therefore the Project could contribute to cumulative environmental effects on fish mortality in the ARSA.

With mitigation and environmental protection measures, the residual and cumulative environmental effects on fisheries are predicted to be of low consequence. Serious harm to fish is not predicted.

4.5 TERRESTRIAL

4.5.1 Introduction

Project activities have the potential to affect terrestrial resources, including: soils and terrain (see Section 11), vegetation and wetlands (Section 12), wildlife (Section 13) and biodiversity. The biodiversity assessment was integrated within the vegetation and wetlands and wildlife VC chapters.

4.5.2 Interactions

Project activities that have the potential to interact and affect terrestrial resources include construction and operation of surface facilities (vegetation clearing, soil handling, installation of surface facilities); spills and releases; vehicle traffic; air emissions; and reclamation activities. At the local and regional scales, effects to terrestrial resources include changes in landscape composition (i.e., habitat loss), intactness, and fragmentation (including edge effects), which can result in reduced plant and wildlife species diversity which are key indicators of biodiversity.

4.5.3 Study Area

The terrestrial local study area (TLSA) encompasses the area where direct effects from the development and operation of the Project are expected to occur. The TLSA is centered on the Project area boundary plus a 500 m buffer and totals 17,710 ha.




The terrestrial regional study area (TRSA) was developed to be large enough to address cumulative effects on terrestrial disciplines (soils and terrain, vegetation and wetlands, wildlife, and biodiversity) at appropriate geographic boundaries, and considers watersheds, ecoregions, wildlife habitat use (i.e., home ranges) and provincial management areas (e.g., wildlife management units [WMUs] and caribou ranges). The TRSA totals 477,691 ha and extends across eight townships in the vicinity of the Project footprint.

4.5.4 Mitigation

Mitigation measures are designed to reduce or avoid interactions with terrestrial resources (soils and terrain, vegetation and wetlands, wildlife and biodiversity) for construction, operation, and reclamation activities, thereby mitigating potential effects. All applicable regulatory notifications, permits, and authorizations, as required, will be obtained before the start of construction. Where Project activities have the potential to interact with terrestrial resources, the appropriate regulatory guidance (EPEA approval, COPs and guidelines), including mitigation measures and restricted activity periods, will be followed as documented in the Conceptual Conservation and Reclamation Plan (Volume 1, Section 6).

Following regulatory approval, Suncor will continue to refine mitigation related to the construction, operation and reclamation of the Project at both the project level and component specific scales through pre-disturbance surveys, component specific conservation and construction planning, incorporation of learnings from monitoring programs and the project-level conservation, reclamation and closure plan. Disturbance and reclamation activities will be reported annually in the Conservation and Reclamation Report.

4.5.5 Soils and Terrain

Potential environmental effects arising from Project interactions with soils and terrain include changes in soil quality, soil quantity, soil series diversity and soil acidification.

Project residual effects on soil quality, soil quantity and soil series diversity are adverse in direction, low in magnitude, confined to the footprint, long term, related to a single event or continuous, and can be both reversible and irreversible. Project residual effects on soil acidification are adverse in direction, low in magnitude, regional in extent, long term, continuous and reversible.

With the implementation of reclamation measures, effects of the Project on soil quality, quantity and soil series diversity are unlikely to act cumulatively with the residual effects of other projects in the TRSA therefore an assessment of cumulative effects is not required. The cumulative effect for soil acidification is predicted to be adverse with a low magnitude, long term, continuous and reversible.

Overall, with mitigation, the residual and cumulative environmental effects on soils and terrain are predicted to be of low consequence.




4.5.6 Vegetation and Wetlands

Potential effects that might interact with vegetation and wetlands includes changes in landscape diversity, community diversity, species diversity and vegetation health.

Project residual effects on landscape diversity include a reduction in the area of regional vegetation cover class, a general decrease in number of patches and patch area and in areas of traditional plant use potential. The changes are adverse in direction, low in magnitude, regional in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term. The Project residual effects could act cumulatively with residual effects of other past, present, or reasonably foreseeable future physical activities. Effects on landscape diversity are a result of the direct loss of vegetation cover and the fragmentation of regional vegetation cover classes from clearing activities. The loss of regional vegetation cover is adverse in direction, low in magnitude, regional in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. With the application of reclamation activities following operation of the Project, the effect is reversible over the long term.

At post-reclamation the Project is expected to result in an increase in the area of upland ecosite phases and a reduction in the area and distribution of wetland classes. The change in wetland class may correlate to a reduction or change in wetland function; therefore, the changes to community diversity are adverse in direction, moderate in magnitude, local in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. With the application of reclamation activities following operation of the Project, the effect is reversible over the long term.

From base case to application case (full build-out), there is a decrease in all vegetated structural stages in the TLSA except old-growth forest, which is located outside the footprint. When the reclamation is considered, the Project will have an adverse residual effect on most structural stages including immature forest and mature forest, with exception of an increase in area of low shrub in the footprint. Over time, younger structural stages such as low shrub will mature and older structural stages should begin to increase in area in the local landscape. The decrease in vegetated structural stages is adverse in direction, moderate in magnitude, local in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term. There are no residual effects on rare ecological communities in the TLSA.

Community diversity cumulative effects are a result of vegetation clearing for additional future projects in the TRSA; however the historical rare ecological community occurrence recorded in the TRSA was more than 500 m outside the footprint and is not expected to be affected by the Project. This occurrence is also not affected in the PDC by any other past, present, or reasonably foreseeable future project.




The Project does not intersect any of the rare plant occurrences recorded in the TLSA during field surveys, nor does it intersect any of the historical rare plant occurrences in the TRSA. The decrease in area of species diversity potential is adverse in direction, moderate in magnitude, local in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term because many native vegetation species will likely be seeded or become established on the post-reclamation landscape.

The Project effect on air emissions and vegetation health in the TRSA is expected to be adverse, of negligible to moderate magnitude, and regional in extent. This effect is predicted to be continuous during operations and long term but reversible. This adverse residual effect on vegetation health could act cumulatively with residual effects of other past, present, or planned physical activities in the TRSA. The overall cumulative effect of air emissions in the region on vegetation health is adverse and high magnitude. It is long term, continuous and reversible.

Overall, there is a low environmental consequence predicted for Project residual effects to vegetation and wetlands. Cumulative effects are also predicted to be of low consequence, with the exception of air emissions, which are moderate. However, the Project’s contribution to air emission effects on vegetation health is of low consequence, given that the area where effects are elevated is in the vicinity of Fort McMurray, almost 40 km north of the Project.

The post-construction an operational wetland and waterbody monitoring plan will address the long-term objective of maintaining wetland community structure and function. The Wetland and Waterbody Monitoring Plan will be designed to evaluate Project-related effects on wetlands, and if implemented mitigation measures are effective.

4.5.7 Wildlife

Project construction and operations have the potential to affect wildlife (including species at risk) through direct habitat loss, reduced habitat effectiveness (i.e., the ability of habitat to support wildlife and how it is affected by sensory disturbance), changes in movement and mortality risk. Project effects were assessed for the above for 14 key wildlife indicator species.

Overall, with the exception of woodland caribou, the Project residual effect to change in habitat is predicted to be adverse but moderate in magnitude. The effect will be a long term reduction in mature and old growth habitat and a small net loss of peatlands in the TLSA. Once the footprint is reclaimed and Project sensory disturbance is removed from the landscape, habitat loss is reduced or eliminated for most key indicators; therefore, residual effects are considered reversible. With consideration of expected mitigation measures, residual cumulative effects on change in habitat are considered moderate in magnitude due to direct and indirect habitat loss associated with the Project and other planned and approved developments in the TRSA. Residual cumulative effects on habitat will occur at multiple irregular events as future projects are constructed, are long-term in duration (due to the recovery of structurally-complex mature and old-growth forests that are preferred by some species), and reversible due to reclamation




activities. The Project’s contribution to existing cumulative effects is negligible because the footprint is relatively small in proportion to the habitat available in the TRSA.

For woodland caribou, because of pre-existing disturbance, the East Side Athabasca River (ESAR) caribou range is well below the established threshold for undisturbed habitat based on the federal recovery strategy. Thus, though minimal relative to the area of the ESAR range, the residual cumulative effect on change in woodland caribou habitat associated with the Project will be high in magnitude. However, the Project’s contribution to existing cumulative effects on the ESAR caribou population is moderate because the footprint is relatively small in proportion to the suitable habitat available in the TRSA.

Project residual effects on change in movement are considered low in magnitude and effects are considered medium in duration. Once land is reclaimed and barriers to wildlife removed, connectivity will be re-established for key indicator species; therefore, residual effects are considered reversible. Residual cumulative effects on change in movement for wildlife are considered low in magnitude as it is expected that other in situ projects in the TRSA will implement mitigation measures (e.g., aboveground pipeline wildlife crossing structures) to reduce hindrance to wildlife movement. Once land is reclaimed and sensory disturbance is eliminated, barriers to movement will be reduced to near base case levels; therefore, effects are considered reversible in the medium-term. Overall, the contribution from the Project to residual cumulative effects on wildlife movement will be negligible when compared to hindrance levels in the TRSA.

Project residual effects on change in mortality risk are considered low in magnitude and effects are considered medium in duration. Once human activity and Project infrastructure and linear disturbance are removed from the landscape, mortality risk is eliminated for key indicators; therefore, residual effects are considered reversible. Residual cumulative effects on change in mortality risk for wildlife are considered low in magnitude as implementation of best management practices for the oil sands region (e.g., vegetation clearing outside of restricted access period for species of management concern) and other mitigation and monitoring plans generally adopted by oil sands operators are anticipated to reduce mortality risk. Effects are expected to occur at multiple irregular events as future projects go forward, and will be medium-term in duration and reversible. Overall, the Project contribution to residual cumulative effects on mortality risk is relatively small when compared to mortality levels in the TRSA.

Potential Project effects on wildlife health have also been assessed through a Screening-Level Wildlife Risk Assessment (SLWRA). The results of the SLWRA indicate that the overall risks posed to wildlife health as a result of the Project are low. Adverse effects on wildlife populations are not anticipated based on estimated wildlife exposures to predicted maximum short- and long-term air concentrations, predicted maximum soil concentrations and predicted maximum surface water concentrations.




For the key indicator species assessment, the overall residual and cumulative environmental consequence is predicted to be low for all species except for woodland caribou. The Project residual environmental consequence is expected to be moderate as there is a loss of moderate and high suitability peatland habitat. Cumulative environmental consequence is expected to be high for woodland caribou because of pre-existing disturbance, the ESAR caribou range is well below the established threshold for undisturbed habitat based on the federal recovery strategy.

Following approval, Suncor will develop and implement a wildlife mitigation and monitoring program focusing on selected provincial and federal species of concern. The wildlife mitigation and monitoring program includes a wildlife mitigation and monitoring plan, caribou mitigation and monitoring plan and caribou protection plan designed to mitigate effects on wildlife and wildlife habitat, and to monitor the Project during construction, operation, and reclamation to assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures.

4.5.8 Biodiversity

Changes in biodiversity associated with the Project were assessed using indicators developed for the Draft Lower Athabasca Region Biodiversity Management Framework. These indicators are habitat- and species-based and were chosen to represent biodiversity in the TLSA and TRSA. Indicators from the draft Biodiversity Management Framework that are not anticipated to interact with the Project or may interact but with low environmental consequence were not assessed (e.g., fisheries). The ranking approach for biodiversity potential is similar to that used for the vegetation species diversity assessment and is based on that used for the Oil Sands Biodiversity Ranking Update for the Surmont Phase 3 Project.

Biodiversity was assessed for both Project-specific and regionally-planned activities. Potential effects for biodiversity that was assessed and the key indicator for this effect are as follows:

• Changes in landscape and community diversity assessed for native cover

• Change in community diversity assessed for old forest cover

• Change in habitat assessed based on interior habitat area (patch size)

• Changes in landscape and community diversity assessed based on peatland cover

• Change in species diversity assessed for vascular and non-vascular plant relative diversity

• Change in wildlife biodiversity potential assessed based on rarity of vegetation types, species richness and species overlap, and the potential for occurrence of rare or special status species

• Change in habitat, movement and mortality risk for woodland (boreal) caribou




Overall biodiversity potential rankings were determined for upland ecosite phases and wetland classes in the TLSA, and the TRSA. For the TLSA, wooded coniferous fens and shrubby swamps were calculated to have high biodiversity potential based on the ranking indices. For the TRSA, broadleaf forest and fen cover classes were calculated to have high biodiversity potential based on the ranking indices.

The Project residual effects on change in landscape and community diversity are anticipated to be low in magnitude. At full buildout, there will be a loss of area of regional vegetation cover due to vegetation clearing during construction, resulting in a loss of upland regional vegetation cover and wetland regional vegetation classes. The loss of regional vegetation cover is adverse in direction, low in magnitude, regional in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term and the reclaimed ecosystem will likely not have the level of cover found in a natural ecosystem, but over time the landscape diversity is expected to recover.

Based on current project design, the Project residual effects on change in old growth forest is expected to be neutral as there are no occurrence of old growth forest in the footprint.

The Project residual effects on change in interior habitat area are anticipated to be low in magnitude. At application case compared to base case, there are fewer patches of all wetland size categories except the largest (>400 ha) and fewer patches of the three smallest upland size categories (i.e., patches with between 0 and 25 ha). Patch area decreased in all wetland size categories and the three smallest upland size categories. The magnitude of change in patch metrics of regional vegetation cover is adverse in direction, low in magnitude, regional in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term. Overall, Project residual effects on change in habitat (including interior habitat) are anticipated to be adverse but moderate in magnitude, considering the change in preferred (high and moderate suitability only) habitat availability following reclamation. Change in habitat for seven key wildlife indicators is positive, with suitable early seral and wetland habitat available for these species post-reclamation. In addition, sufficient habitat with security cover and habitat for prey species (e.g., snowshoe hare) for many key indicators will be available post-reclamation. The adverse rating is associated with the long-term reduction in mature habitat and a small net loss of peatlands in the TLSA. Once the footprint is reclaimed and Project sensory disturbance is removed from the landscape, habitat loss is reduced or eliminated for most key indicators; therefore, residual effects are considered reversible.

The largest increase in the species rich upland ecosite phases horsetail balsam poplar-white spruce (f2) and horsetail white spruce (f3) is due to the wellpads developed in wetlands that are targeted for upland ecosites at reclamation. While there is a decrease in peatland area and wooded swamps, there is an increase in area for shrubby swamp, graminoid marsh and shallow open water. The increase in shallow open water is largely attributed to development of open water features in borrow areas. The change in wetland area following reclamation could result in a proportional change in associated wetland functions. The decrease in area of wooded bogs




and fens and the introduction of open bog may correlate to a change in associated functions, which include long-term carbon storage potential and export of nutrients. In particular, fens of all forms provide important hydrological functions such as water flow moderation and groundwater recharge, biogeochemical functions such as water quality treatment (filtering) and biotic functions such as contributions to biodiversity and habitat to support numerous species at risk including caribou. Marshes and swamps are also important contributors to water quality treatment and can support a high diversity of species. While wooded swamps decrease at post-reclamation, shrubby swamps and marshes increase in area and this increase will help to maintain some of the wetland functions. The decrease in the area of wetland areas is adverse in direction, moderate in magnitude, local in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term and the environmental consequence is low.

The Project residual effects on change in vascular and non-vascular plant species diversity is moderate in magnitude. At full build-out, the Project is expected to result in a decrease in areas of high, moderate and low species diversity potential. Post-reclamation, the Project is expected to result in a positive residual effect to areas of high, moderate and low species diversity potential when compared to base case once vegetation cover becomes well established. The increase in area of high species diversity potential results primarily from an increase in species rich upland ecosite phases horsetail balsam poplar-white spruce (f2) and horsetail white spruce (f3) in the post-reclamation landscape. Species with a high fidelity to peatlands (i.e., bog and fen wetland classes), initially are unlikely to become established on the post-reclamation landscape but over the long term, species diversity is expected to recover. Unrated areas, which correlate to disturbed areas, decrease following reclamation of these previously disturbed sites. The decrease in area of species diversity potential is adverse in direction, moderate in magnitude, local in extent, long term in duration, and will occur once during construction. The effect is reversible over the long term because many native vegetation species will likely be seeded and/or become established on the post-reclamation landscape and the environmental consequence is rated as low.

Project residual effects on change in biodiversity potential are anticipated to be moderate in magnitude. Considering the decrease (3%) in high biodiversity potential habitat at application case (post-reclamation) relative to base case, a reclaimed ecosystem will likely not have the level of species diversity found in a natural ecosystem, but biodiversity is expected to recover. The reduction in regional vegetation cover class has the potential to reduce vegetation biodiversity at a landscape level. At the community scale, a change in vegetation biodiversity may reflect the change in distribution of upland ecosite phases and wetland classes at post-reclamation. There is also change in the distribution of structural stage; however, old-growth forest is outside the footprint. Species diversity potential is maintained at post-reclamation, and all known rare plant and rare ecological community occurrences are outside the footprint.




Project residual effects on change in habitat, movement and mortality risk for woodland (boreal) caribou is moderate. At application case (post-reclamation), the loss of preferred habitat will result in a moderate magnitude (i.e., 1 – 10 %) change in winter habitat for woodland caribou in the TLSA from base case. Effects are considered irreversible in the long-term as some disturbed peatlands will not be returned to the footprint under the Project’s CCR (i.e., wellpads in wetlands will be reclaimed to f ecosites). Because caribou are sensitive to direct and indirect disturbance, the Project will have a moderate magnitude change on daily and seasonal movements for woodland caribou in the TLSA at application case (full buildout). Local effects on ESAR caribou movements will be reversible in the medium term once human activity has subsided and Project infrastructure is decommissioned. After mitigation, the Project contribution to linear density in the TLSA is negligible and Project-related mortality risk from caribou-vehicle collisions is considered unlikely based on historic data and the low density of woodland caribou in the ESAR caribou range. The most probable Project contribution to caribou mortality risk is the increase of early seral habitat post-reclamation. This condition will persist after operation and provides high suitability habitat for alternate prey species such as moose and white-tailed deer, thereby indirectly increasing mortality risk for woodland caribou via habitat-mediated apparent competition.

Residual cumulative effect on change in biodiversity are predicted be low in magnitude due to the slight loss in area of high biodiversity potential habitat (0.3%) in the TRSA at PDC relative to base case. The reduction in regional vegetation cover class has the potential to reduce vegetation biodiversity at a landscape level. The effect will occur at multiple irregular events as future projects go forward, will be long-term in duration, and reversible due to reclamation activities.

There are several project-specific monitoring programs that contribute to the monitoring of biophysical elements which combine to maintain biodiversity at the regional level. Summaries of these programs are provided their respective EIA sections as follows:

• wetland and waterbody monitoring plan (Section 12)

• wildlife mitigation and monitoring plan (Section 13)

• conceptual conservation and reclamation plan (Volume 1, Section 6)

• a post-approval Project-Level Conservation, Reclamation, and Closure Plan (PLCRCP)

• a reclamation plan for specific Project components at time of reclamation following objectives outlined in LARP and the PLCRCP.




4.6 LAND-USE AND MANAGEMENT

The land use assessment evaluated Project effects on changes to oil and gas and other industrial activities, changes to forestry and fire management, and changes to consumptive and non-consumptive recreation (see Section 14). Project-related vehicle traffic along Highway 63 and secondary access roads, as well as access restrictions imposed on access corridors could affect other disposition holders’ ability to access lands for which they hold dispositions to develop surface, mineral, and aggregate resources and to access to their existing assets for operations and maintenance. Dispositions acquired for the Project will result in overlapping land uses, which will affect disposition holders who currently use the land and with the potential to develop surface and mineral resources in the future. Aggregate volumes required for the Project could potentially influence local or regional supplies and development plans. Construction of the Project will remove forested communities including commercial and non-commercial forest from the land base in the TLSA, however will not affect existing fire management infrastructure. Industrial development in the TLSA has removed areas that could be used for consumptive recreation. Industrial development has also increased access for consumptive recreation as areas used for hunting, trapping, fishing and berry picking within the TLSA are primarily accessed along existing linear disturbances.

For changes to land use as a result of the Project, Suncor will engage with other disposition holders to allow for multi-stakeholder access and will apply integrated land management practices, using existing cleared areas for development of the footprint, where practicable. An access management plan will also be developed and implemented for the life of the Project which will include developing crossing agreements with other disposition holders where there is existing infrastructure. Suncor will also engage with Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc. (Al-Pac) and Northland Forest Products and salvage timber prior to and during construction. Suncor will engage with AEP to discuss Project effects to its dispositions for lands held for fire management and Suncor will develop and implement a wildfire control plan.

4.7 HISTORICAL RESOURCES

The potential Project effect on historical resources is the disturbance of the contents and context of historical resources sites, and the associated loss of interpretive heritage value. Historical resources effects are assessed within the context of the heritage value of identified sites and anticipated Project effects (see Section 15).

No known historical resources sites are on record within the footprint which was the study area for this assessment. If the Historical Resources Impact Assessment (HRIA) field studies are required by Alberta Culture and Tourism (ACT), and historical resources sites are identified, vegetation clearing and construction activities could impact the historical resources sites. The assessment of cumulative effects is not warranted because the Project does not interact cumulatively with other projects or activities.




Historical resources are protected and regulated under Alberta’s Historical Resources Act, and any effects on historical resources sites must be approved by the Minister of ACT. The Minister evaluates the effect and prescribes any required mitigation. Once mitigation is complete, the Minister of ACT approves the Project, and no residual Project effects or cumulative effects are recognized. Effects on historical resource sites can be reduced or eliminated by avoidance or adequate study.

Project-specific environmental effects on historical resources are continually mitigated to the standards established by ACT. Consequently, after mitigation measures are implemented, there are no residual environmental effects.

4.8 TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE AND LAND USE

Project activities have the potential to affect traditional activities, sites and resources identified by Aboriginal groups (see Section 16). Information gathered from Suncor’s Aboriginal Consultation plan, a review of literature containing relevant traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and traditional land use (TLU) information, and the analysis of biophysical and human environmental assessments were used to identify potential Project effects on traditional activities, sites and resources.

TLU was assessed for the TLSA and TRSA as there are links between terrestrial VCs and TLU harvesting activities (e.g. hunting and wildlife and diversity).

During the construction and operation phases, the Project has the potential to affect TLU through change in availability of traditional resources for current use (e.g. hunting, trapping, fishing, and plant gathering), change in access to traditional resources for current use, and change to current use sites and areas (e.g., habitation areas, trails and travelways, and cultural or spiritual practices sites and areas). It is acknowledged that appropriate conditions for TLU entail more than availability of traditional resources and that Aboriginal groups may choose not to pursue TLU activities in the vicinity of the Project for a variety of personal, practical, aesthetic and spiritual reasons.

Overall, the residual effects of the Project on the availability of traditional resources are low to moderate in magnitude, with the greatest effect being the decrease in habitat for certain traditional use wildlife species, such as moose, in the TLSA. Project effects are limited to the TLSA, and although reclamation of Project disturbances is planned, the effect is considered to be long-term because reclamation will not occur for more than 25 years after the vegetation is cleared and as a result is considered to be irreversible. With the exception of caribou, the residual cumulative effect on the availability of traditional resources for current use due to habitat loss associated with the Project and other planned and approved developments in the TRSA is expected to be moderate in magnitude. The effect is considered to be long-term because reclamation will not occur for more than 25 years after the vegetation is cleared. With reclamation, residual cumulative effects for most species are considered reversible. Effects are




considered reversible for most species with the implementation of reclamation. Because the ESAR caribou range has more disturbed habitat then defined as acceptable in the federal recovery strategy, the residual cumulative effect on change in boreal caribou habitat is considered to be high.

Overall, the residual effects of the Project on access to traditional resources for current use are low in magnitude, with no appreciable change expected in regards to the level of effort required to travel along Highway 63, Fort McMurray No. 468 First Nation’s two travel routes in the TLSA and to potential TLU areas in the TLSA. Project effects are limited to the footprint, and the effect is considered to be long-term because reclamation will not occur for more than 25 years after the vegetation is cleared. With reclamation, residual effects are considered reversible. The cumulative effects on access to traditional resources, current use sites or locations are low in magnitude, with disturbance from planned projects expected to increase the level of effort to access potential TLU areas in the TRSA. The effects are likely to be long term because reclamation will not occur for more than 25 years after the vegetation is cleared.

A change in current use sites and areas could occur directly as a result of vegetation clearing and disturbance or indirectly as a result of sensory disturbance (e.g., noise) from Project operations. Current use sites identified by Fort McMurray No. 468 First Nation, Chipewyan Prairie Dene First Nation and Fort McMurray Métis are overlapped by the Project footprint. Current use sites or areas located in the Project footprint and associated with harvesting activities (hunting, trapping, fishing, plant gathering) will be removed during construction and operations with residual effects anticipated to be reversible when the footprint is reclaimed. Habitation sites, and spiritual sites or areas located in the Project footprint will also be removed during construction and operations. Residual effects to these sites or areas however will be irreversible because once disturbed, these sites cannot be reclaimed or returned to baseline conditions. Overall, the residual effects of the Project on current use sites or locations in the footprint are anticipated to be a single event, moderate in magnitude, long-term in duration and range from reversible to irreversible. Residual effects are not anticipated to extend to the current use sites or areas outside of the Project footprint. Projects identified in the PDC will affect current use sites and areas by reducing the amount of land in the TRSA which is available for TLU activities to be practiced. Some of the current use sites identified by Fort McMurray No. 468 First Nation and Chipewyan Prairie Dene First Nation are overlapped by the Project footprint and at least one additional project included in the PDC. Residual cumulative effects are anticipated to be moderate in magnitude, long-term in duration, reversible for sites associated with harvesting activities (hunting, trapping, fishing, plant gathering) and irreversible for habitation sites and spiritual sites which can not be reclaimed.

No determination of environmental consequence is undertaken for TLU, given the lack of applicable regulatory guidance and thresholds, as well as the subjective nature of the VC.

Suncor will continue to engage with Aboriginal groups as part of the long-term stakeholder engagement plan.




4.9 SOCIO-ECONOMICS

The Project has potential socio-economic effects on employment, income and fiscal benefits. The Project might also affect some aspects of the human environment; for example, population, housing, health services, education, emergency services, transportation, social and municipal infrastructure and Aboriginal traditional land use and culture (see Section 17).

The RSA consists of the RMWB and the First Nations Reserves and Metis communities within its boundaries as well as several population centres.

From an economic perspective, the Project is a net economic contributor. The Project will generate an estimated $1.2 billion in positive contribution towards provincial gross domestic product (GDP) and $700 million in household income based on construction activities. Once fully operational, the Project will generate expenditures of about $159 million for facilities and $65 million for field activities on an average annual basis. Locally, the Project is expected to have several economic and employment benefits for RSA residents. Approximately $16 million of total construction spending, and $43 to $46 million annually in operation spending (including ongoing drilling), is expected to accrue to workers and contractors in the RSA.

From a government fiscal perspective, the Project is also a net contributor. Over its lifespan, the Project will contribute over $7 billion in provincial royalties and taxes, as well as $1.4 billion in federal corporate income taxes. Project-specific direct effects on municipal costs to the RMWB are estimated to be minimal. Current estimates project the carbon levy paid due to emissions from the Project at approximately $2.2 billion.

The Project’s long-term resident population effect of 410 persons in 2025 is about 0.5% above expected population levels at that time in the region; the majority of which (390 persons) is expected to accrue to Fort McMurray. The Project’s population effect is limited during the construction phase by its lodge-based approach. The magnitude of the Project’s effect on housing, social, transportation and municipal infrastructure as well as TLU and culture in the RSA will be low, in line with its expected contribution to the RSA population base.

Cumulative effects on housing, social, transportation and municipal infrastructure as well as TLU and culture in the RSA are expected to be of mixed direction (both positive and adverse) and moderate in magnitude. The Project’s contribution to regional growth is low and its relative contribution to cumulative socio-economic effects is expected to fall in line with its population effects. Even so, the Project contributes to cumulative industrial development in the region, through which continued demands are placed on the housing, transportation, municipal and social infrastructure in the RSA. Ongoing development and population growth also contribute to increased effects on TLU and social and cultural change in rural, predominantly Aboriginal communities.

A broad range of socio-economic monitoring is undertaken in the region. Much of this occurs as part of normal federal and provincial government operations as well as ongoing work from organizations such as school, health and real estate boards. No Project-specific monitoring




programs are proposed within the context of the regulatory approval process. However, through its long-term stakeholder engagement plan for the Project, Suncor is committed to identifying Project-related stakeholder concerns, interests and opportunities at regular intervals. The plan identifies the type of information to report to stakeholders and the frequency of communication.

4.10 HUMAN HEALTH

The Human Health Risk Assessment evaluates the potential short-term (acute) and long-term (chronic) health risks resulting from exposure to chemical emissions from the Project (see Section 18). These health risks are considered cumulatively by assessing them in conjunction with potential exposure and health risks that could be attributed to existing and approved developments as well as planned developments in the region.

The LSA and RSA for the human health risk assessment (HHRA) is consistent with the Air Quality LSA and RSA.

The HHRA includes separate exposure assessments for acute and chronic exposure estimates through inhalation and multiple pathway exposure. Exposure estimates for the inhalation pathway are based on the air dispersion modelling described in the air quality assessment. The air quality modelling considered not only emissions from the Project, but also all major regional emission sources. To assess the potential health risks associated with possible secondary pathways, the multiple pathway assessment was necessary to identify those chemicals released by the Project that, although only emitted into air, would be expected to deposit onto land or water and possibly persist or accumulate in the environment in sufficient quantities for people to be exposed via soil, food and water pathways.

Acute inhalation risk quotients (RQs) were predicted for a variety of common air contaminants. The results for these substances is as follows:

• The peak (1st highest) predicted 1-hour and 8-hour air concentrations remain well below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs) established by the US EPA for Carbon Monoxide (CO). This suggests that the Project will have little, if any, effect on the base case health risks for short-term exposure to CO in the LSA.

• The predicted ground-level air concentrations for NO2 remain well below the NAAQS established by the US EPA for Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2). This suggests that the Project will have little, if any effect on the base case health risks associated short-term exposure to NO2 in the LSA.

• Maximum predicted acute inhalation RQs for PM2.5 do not exceed 1.0 for the LSA maximum point of impingement (MPOI), CPF boundary MPOI, Aboriginal peoples or workers under any of the assessment cases, however results of the chronic inhalation assessment (i.e., comparison of annual average exposure to chronic exposure limit) might be considered a better predictor of potential health effects associated with PM2.5 than acute assessment results.




• There is a low potential for adverse health effects as a result of short-term inhalation exposure to SO2 in the LSA.

• There is a low potential for adverse health effects as a result of combined exposure to the components of the respiratory irritants mixture in the LSA.

Chronic health assessments were completed for exposures to the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic Contaminants of Potential Concern (COPC). Examination of the findings for non-carcinogenic COPC, revealed that in all cases the chronic inhalation RQs are less than 1.0, indicating that the maximum predicted annual air concentrations of the COPC are lower than the corresponding exposure limits. Chronic health risks associated with exposure to the COPC are therefore considered negligible or low, and adverse health effects are not expected as a result of the long-term inhalation of the COPC associated with the Project. For carcinogenic health risks, the incremental contributions from the Project and other future emission sources to the cancer risks in the LSA are considered “essentially negligible”.

Potential health risks to Aboriginal peoples and workers in the area resulting from chronic exposure to COPC associated with the Project via the various secondary pathways were assessed for non-cancer health risks and cancer health risks. For non-cancer health risks, the chronic multiple pathway RQs are less than 1.0 for each of the assessment cases. This indicates that maximum exposure estimates for Aboriginal peoples and workers residing in the LSA are less than their corresponding exposure limits. Therefore, potential chronic health risks associated with these COPC are considered negligible to low, and adverse health effects are not predicted to occur as a result of long-term exposures to the COPC through secondary exposure pathways. For cancer health risks, the maximum predicted ILCRs associated with the Project Only Case and Future Case are all less than 1 in 100,000, indicating that the incremental cancer risk from the Project and other future developments are considered “essentially negligible”.

An upset flaring scenario was also assessed for potential health risks. Abnormal emissions of criteria (or common) air contaminants (CACs (i.e., CO, NO2, PM2.5, SO2)) and hydrogen sulphide would occur during upset flaring and might result in short-term exposure of people in the LSA to these COPC. Predicted ground-level air concentrations indicated that short-term exposure to these COPC during upset flaring are not expected to result in adverse health effects.

Based on the findings of the HHRA, no management measures are recommended in addition to those already planned in support of the air quality, surface water quality and hydrogeology follow up and monitoring plans which are also relevant to human health.




Table 4-1 Summary of Environmental Consequence of Project Residual Effects

Valued Component

Potential Environmental Effect Summary of Project Activities Associated with Valued Component

Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Air Quality Change in ambient air quality

Evaluation of potential emissions from the Project and other emission sources in the region; ambient air quality compared with air quality and acid forming deposition criteria

Meets criteria Section 5.9

Change in deposition Below critical deposition load criteria

Section 5.9, 9.7, 11.10, 12.10

Acoustic Environment

Change in acoustic environment

The acoustics assessment identified and quantified noise effects associated with Project operation, along with noise from other sources in the region.

Complies with AER Directive 38 criteria.

Section 6.5

Hydrogeology Change in groundwater quantity

The hydrogeology assessment considered groundwater resources that could be directly or indirectly affected by Project activities including groundwater withdrawal, construction and operation of surface facilities, steam injection into SAGD wells and wastewater disposal.

Moderate Section 7, Appendix 7A

Change in groundwater quality

Low Section 7.6

Hydrology Change in hydrology Project effects on hydrology resulting from alteration of land cover, seasonal base flow, ground heave/subsidence, surface water withdrawals and watercourse erosion.

Low Section 8.6

Surface Water Quality

Change in surface water quality

Interaction of the Project on surface water quality was assessed for: • introduction of sediment to waterways, accidental spills, water

withdrawals from surface water sources

Low Section 10.10

• steam injection and groundwater heating Low Section 7.6 • oxides of sulphur (SOX) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emissions and

compared to critical load criteria Low (below critical load criteria)

Section 9.7

Fisheries Alteration of fish habitat

Project activities that could potentially affect fisheries would occur during construction, resulting in changes in changes in fish habitat availability, barriers to movement, direct mortality and release of deleterious substances

Low Section 10.10

Loss of fish habitat Fish mortality





Valued Component


Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Soils and Terrain

Change in soil quality Project activities that could affect soil quantity and quality include soil salvage, storage and replacement, spills and releases, vehicle traffic, air emissions, vegetation removal and coarse woody debris management and reclamation activities.

Low

Section 11.10 Change in soil quantity

Change in soil series diversity Change in soil acidification

Low (below critical load criteria)

Section 11.10

Vegetation and Wetlands

Change in landscape diversity

Project activities associated with soil stripping and vegetation removal, along with spills and releases have the potential to affect vegetation and wetlands. Changes in water levels can affect wetland hydrology. Project related air emissions also have the potential to affect vegetation and wetland health.

Low

Section 12.10

Change in community diversity Change in species diversity Change in air emissions and vegetation health

Wildlife Change in habitat Project activities can directly or indirectly affect wildlife or wildlife habitat. These include activities that result in destruction and degradation of habitat, including soil stripping and vegetation clearing, sensory and mortality through increased traffic. For each key indicator species, the determination of environmental consequence was assessed, using the magnitudes of change predicted under the Project residual effects classification. Magnitude ratings were based on ratings for changes in habitat, movement and mortality risk.

Low Section 13.10 Change in movement

Change in mortality risk

Moderate





Valued Component


Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Biodiversity Change in landscape and community diversity

Project activities that potentially affect both vegetation and wetland and wildlife are also likely to affect biodiversity.

Low Section 12.10

Change in habitat Change in biodiversity potential

Low Section 13.7

Change in woodland caribou

Moderate Section 13.10

Land-Use and Management

Change to oil and gas and other industrial activities

Project activities can directly and indirectly affect land use and land users through activities on Crown land, oil and gas and other industrial developments, commercial timber harvesting, consumptive recreation and non-consumptive recreation including parks and protected areas.

Low Section 14.10

Change to forestry and fire management Change to consumptive recreation Change to non-consumptive recreation

Historical Resources

Loss of historical resources site contents, context and interpretive value

Project activities have the potential to adversely affect historical resources primarily through the construction phase.

Neutral – no interaction predicted

Section 15.5





Valued Component


Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Land Use

Change in availability of traditional resources for current use

The Project could affect traditional activities, sites and resources identified by Aboriginal groups. Interaction of the Project on availability of traditional resource for current use was assessed for habitat for traditionally used plant or animal species, movement patterns, mortality risk and wildlife health were assessed to have a low to moderate residual effect.

Not rated: TLU assessment assesses effects on people who use the environment, but there is currently no clearly established means to judge and gauge how affected individuals and groups may respond to project effects.

Section 16.5

Change in access to traditional resources for current use or current use sites and locations

Interaction of the Project on access to traditional resources for current use or current use sites and locations was assessed for loss or alteration of trails and travelways, restrictions on the ability to navigate to and through current use areas or limitations on the ability to undertake current use activities were assessed to have a low residual effect.

Change in current use of sites or areas

Interaction of the Project on current use of sites or areas was assessed for harvesting sites and areas, sites and areas for cultural or spiritual practices, or archaeological or palaeontological sites and areas were assessed to have a moderate residual effect.

Socio-economics

Change in employment, income and fiscal benefits

Interaction of the Project on employment, income and fiscal benefits was assessed for construction and operation spending including personal employment, local business and contracting opportunities, regional and provincial economic and fiscal benefits, including personal and business income, and government tax and royalty income. Interaction of the Project on aspects of the human environment were assessed for population, housing, health services, education, emergency services, transportation, social and municipal infrastructure and Aboriginal traditional land use and culture.

Not Rated: The Project will have a net positive economic effect.

Section 17.11

Change in aspects of the human environment

Human Health Acute health risks Project acute health risks was assessed for acute inhalation risk estimates, expressed as RQs, were based on exposure periods that range from a few minutes to 24 hours for Aboriginal peoples, workers and area users.

Not rated: no management measures recommended.

Section 18.4

Chronic health risks Project chronic health risks was assessed for potential health risks that could result from chronic exposure to the COPC for the Aboriginal peoples and workers. Separate assessments were completed for (i) the primary inhalation pathway; and (ii) all exposure pathways combined (i.e., inhalation and applicable secondary exposure pathways).




Table 4-2 Summary of Environmental Consequence of Cumulative Effects

Valued Component

Potential Environmental Effect Summary of Project Interaction with Valued Component

Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Air Quality Change in ambient air quality

Interaction of the Project on ambient air quality was compared cumulatively to respective ambient air quality criteria with Project contribution to air quality found not to make a substantive contribution to these values.

Meets criteria. Section 5.9

Change in deposition Interaction of the Project on deposition of acid-forming (PAI) emissions and nitrogen was compared to critical load criteria.

Low Section 5.9, 9.7, 11.10, 12.10

Acoustic Environment

n/a n/a n/a Section 6.5

Hydrogeology Change in groundwater quantity

Cumulative effects on groundwater quantity were assessed for changes in shallow non-saline Quaternary aquifers as a result of groundwater withdrawal.

Low Section 7, Appendix 7A

Change in groundwater quality

Cumulative effects on groundwater quality were assessed for changes in shallow non-saline Quaternary aquifers as a result of surface facilities and production and steaming.

Low Section 7.6

Hydrology n/a n/a n/a Section 8.6

Surface Water Quality

Change in surface water quality as a result of air emissions

Potential effects of air emissions on surface water quality were assessed for changes in PAI deposition.

Low Section 9.7

Fisheries Fish mortality The low magnitude of residual cumulative effects is predicted to not affect quantity and productive capacity of the aquatic environment or the sustainability and ongoing productivity of CRA fisheries. Serious harm to fish is not predicted.

Low Section 10.8

Soils and Terrain Change in soil acidification

Potential effects of air emissions on soils and terrain were assessed for changes in PAI deposition.

Low Section 11.10

Vegetation and Wetlands

Landscape diversity Cumulative effects for landscape diversity assessed changes to regional vegetation cover classes, vegetation patch dynamics and traditional plant use potential.

Low Section 12.10

Air emissions and vegetation health

Effects of air emissions on vegetation health were assessed cumulatively based on critical levels of SO2, critical levels of NOX, and critical loads of nitrogen deposition.

Low Section 12.10





Valued Component


Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Wildlife Key indicator species: changes in habitat, movement and mortality risk

Moose, fisher, Canada lynx, beaver, little brown and northern myotis, yellow rail, olive-sided flycatcher, Canada warbler, rusty blackbird, western toad, Canadian toad

Low Section 13.10

woodland (boreal) caribou Moderate to high Section 13.10

Biodiversity Change in biodiversity Cumulative effects to biodiversity were assessed for landscape diversity, biodiversity potential and woodland caribou.

Low to moderate Section 12.10, 13.10

Land Use and Management

Change in land-use and management

The Project will comply with established land use plans or policies including LARP, which supports development of the region and optimizing its oil sands reserves while maintaining economic opportunities in forestry, minerals and recreational opportunities.

Low Section 14.10

Historical Resources

n/a n/a n/a Section 15.4

Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Land Use

Availability of traditional resources for current use

The Project’s contribution to effects on the availability of traditional resources will be localized in the context of the TRSA. The greatest decrease in regional cover classes for wildlife species of traditional importance represent <1% of the TRSA. The Project will have a limited contribution to the loss of availability of traditional resources in the TRSA and is assessed as contributing a low to high cumulative residual effect.

Not rated: TLU assessment assesses effects on people who use the environment, but there is currently no clearly established means to judge and gauge how affected individuals and groups may respond to project effects.

Section 16.6

Access to traditional resources for current use or to current use sites and locations

The Project’s contribution to effects on access to traditional resources will localized in the context of the TRSA. The Project is not expected to alter overall access to traditional resources within the TRSA and is assessed as contributing a low cumulative residual effect.

Section 16.6

Change in current use of sites or areas

The Project’s contribution to effects on current use sites and areas will be localized in the context of the TRSA. The Project will have a limited contribution to the loss of land available to practice TLU activities within the TRSA and is assessed as contributing a low to moderate cumulative residual effect.

Section 16.6





Valued Component


Consequence Rating

Section Reference

Socio-economics n/a n/a Not Rated: The Project will have a net positive economic effect.

Section 17.11

Human Health Acute health risks Interaction of the Project on acute health risks was assessed for acute inhalation risk estimates, expressed as RQs, were based on exposure periods that range from a few minutes to 24 hours for Aboriginal peoples, workers and area users.

Not rated: no management measures recommended.

Section 18.4

Chronic health risks Interaction of the Project on chronic health risks was assessed for potential health risks that could result from chronic exposure to the COPC for the Aboriginal peoples and workers. Separate assessments were completed for (i) the primary inhalation pathway; and (ii) all exposure pathways combined (i.e., inhalation and applicable secondary exposure pathways).

NOTE: n/a – not applicable – residual effects for the valued component are not predicted to act cumulatively at either local and regional scales.

4.0 summary of the environmental impact ......the calmet model is applied to a 240 km by 380 km area...

Documents