2nd october 2012 phoenix house, melton mowbray. the national context andrew pritchard director of...
TRANSCRIPT
2nd October 2012
Phoenix House, Melton Mowbray
The National Context
Andrew PritchardDirector of Policy & Infrastructure2 October 2012
Introduction
UK plc – some long term trends The Failure of Regional Policy? National Infrastructure Planning Impact of ‘non-spatial’ policy decisions Conclusions
Regional Productivity
Productivity per Employed Person (1993 & 2008) by Region
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NE NW Y&H EM WM EE London SE SW
Index (
Engla
nd =
100)
1993
2008
Population Growth
All areas are growing It is just that some
areas are growing quicker than others
These trends seem to be becoming more not less pronounced over time
Job Growth
Average Annual Net Job Creation
Total Net Job Creation
North 306 10,100
Midlands 18,748 618,700
South 82,830 2,733,400
Figures 1971-2004
Graduate Retention
Graduate/Earnings Relationship All TTWAs (inc London)
y = 8.3647x + 292.28
R2 = 0.5372
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
10 15 20 25 30
% Graduates (2001)
Av
era
ge
We
ek
ly F
ull T
ime
Wa
ge
(£)
20
03
London
Cambridge
Oxford
Edinburgh
Guildford and Aldershot
Basingstoke
Stoke
Dudley & Sandw ell
Walsall & Wolverhampton
Barnsley
Carlisle
Doncaster
Peterborough
BrightonCardiff
Craw le
AberdeenSouthampton & Winchester
Sw anseLiverpool
Hull
Loughborough
Middlesborough & Stockton
Derby
York
GB
WM
Tyneside
Sources: NES 2003, Census 2001
ManchesterGlasgow
BirminghamBristol
Belfast
The dominance of London
London is at the hub of a ‘south east mega city region’ (Prof Sir Peter Hall)
Has its own unique governance settlement A Regional Spatial Strategy (aka London Plan) Massive public investment (Crossrail,
Thameslink, Olympics = £30 Billion) Building more houses now than back in the
noughties…
The Failure of Regional Policy?
Previous Labour Government focussed on regions and RDAs, underpinned by PSAs
RDAs required to raise economic performance in all regions, but could directly only influence a very small amount of total investment
Coalition policy a mix of sub-regional (LEPs) & national competitions (RGF) – but has even less money to play with
‘Understanding Local Growth’ (BIS /DCLG 2010) Spatial pattern of development a result of
globalisation, economic liberalisation and free trade
‘attempting to act against these forces is unrealistic and unsustainable’
…in a modern, economically liberal European state in the first half of the 21st Century
“ time and tide wait for no man”
National Infrastructure Planning
2008 Planning Act introduced a new single consent regime for major infrastructure projects, underpinned by a series of (mostly non-spatial) ‘National Policy Statements’
IPC merged with PINS by Coalitition– but basic system retained
Coalition has also published 2 versions of a ‘National Infrastructure Plan’ (it even has map!)
National Infrastructure Plan
40 key projects covering roads, rail airports, ports, energy communications, water and sewerage and ‘local infrastructure’ (RGF & GPF)
A mix of public and private investment To be underpinned by £40 billion of
investment guarantees (subject to legislation)
Is it enough?
The National Infrastructure Plan presents a real opportunity to shape the future development of the UK in a conscience way
However, it currently little more than the some of its parts with no relationship to the traditional planning system
‘Non-spatial’ policy and investment decisions have a much greater spatial impact than traditional regional policy
Some questions
Why is the spatial distribution of defence spending and transport investment?
What will be the spatial impact of welfare reform?
Why are most civil servants and Government Departments based in London?
What would the regionalisation of public sector pay do to regional GVA?
What is so wrong about the BBC moving to Salford?
Conclusions
Long term patterns of economic divergence very hard to shift
Conventional ‘Regional Policy’ has so far failed to fundamentally change the situation
National Infrastructure Planning does present an opportunity to shape rather than respond to the future
However success will depend on how it is aligned with ‘non-spatial’ decisions and the planning system
Infrastructure Challenges for the East Midlands
Andrew PritchardDirector of Policy & Infrastructure2 October 2012
Introduction
Background Some good news! Some bad news! Managing flood risk Super fast broadband HS2 in the East Midlands Conclusions
Map
East Midlands: Some Key Facts
4.48 million people - and growing fast 1.9 million dwellings - growing fast until the
banking crash! 153,000 businesses £81 billion of GVA (2010) Highest proportion manufacturing employment in
the UK (13.3% - £12.4 billion) High productivity sectors: transport equipment,
food & drink and construction
Some good news!
£800 million investment in MML announced by DfT in July 2012
Councils, LEPs, MPs and businesses all singing the same song
Intervention of BIS in highlighting the direct and wider economic benefits was crucial
Some bad news!
EM has lost out on funding for affordable housing & regeneration since 2010
Government does not appear to recognise the potential of the EM (TAFKAAR)
Fragmented nature of the EM makes it difficult to articulate a case
Flood Risk
EM has the largest proportion of land at risk of flooding (17%) of any region of England
Not just a coastal issue – many inland urban settlements also at risk
Within flood risk areas….
over 350,000 people and140,000 homes a large proportion of the nations best &
most versatile agricultural land (producing a third of England’s vegetables)
some of the region’s most dynamic urban economies, including central parts of Derby, Leicester, Nottingham, Lincoln & Northampton
Maintaining investor confidence
Current EA investment program includes over 20 schemes in the EM – including Boston Barrage and along the River Trent in Nottingham
However, climate change continues to ‘raise the bar’, capital funding has been cut and EA are looking for 3rd party contributions – even in coastal areas
Meanwhile, the Government has yet to conclude deal with the ABI on maintaining access to commercial insurance in flood risk areas…
Broadband
Broadband is now the ‘4th Utility’
‘Super fast’ broadband now the industry standard (2Mbps)
Government objective is for 90% to have access to ‘super fast’ broadband by 2015
Broadband & economic growth
ICT is linked to improved business systems, e-commerce and design and innovation
Studies have confirmed that increased broadband penetration can have a significant (and quick) GVA uplift – plus 3.8% in East Midlands (£2.4 billion)
However it is clear that the market will not deliver super fast broadband to everyone – particularly in more rural areas and some deprived urban communities
Delivering S/F broadband in EM
BDUK made £34 million available to local partnerships in the EM to full the gaps left by the market – but it has to be matched
ERDF has been used elsewhere – but currently outside the remit of the EM Operational Programme
Lincolnshire has particularly poor S/F broadband access (more the 75% of households without) – but a greater need for economic diversification than most
High Speed Rail
HS2 Phase 1 route from London to Birmingham confirmed
Preferred route from Birmingham to Leeds, including EM Station to be announced ‘shortly’
First Hybrid Bill 2013 and construction from 2017 onwards
HS2 in the East Midlands
Huge potential if direct & wider economic benefits can be captured and the environmental impacts mitigated - but we need to get it right
Released classic rail capacity could transform rail service provision across the East Midlands – but an integrated approach is needed
Wherever a station is located in the East Midlands, it will have long term impacts on economic geography, housing markets and commuting patterns that we will need to plan for
An EM HS2 station must:
be accessible to a number of key population centres within the East Midlands;
be well integrated with classic rail and other public transport services;
(together with the line of route) minimise & mitigate adverse environmental impacts; and
maximise economic growth & regeneration potential at both a local and strategic level, without undermining existing urban centres
Conclusions
flood defence funding, rebalancing the economy, integrating HS2, insurance premiums, super-fast broadband, affordable housing, food security, RGF, ERDF - does it all add up in the EM?
(Fill in your own answer here!) EMC & partners attempting to stitch things together
– but a more strategic approach is needed Could a ‘Map for England’ help?
Join in a national debate withthe Royal Town Planning Institute
Individual government departments have over 100 maps relating to policies and programmes•100 maps in 95 different places•Topics covered are:
• Economic growth• Transport• Communications• Housing• Environment
•One third are explicit maps; two thirds are not
Research Findings: University of Manchester
• For the Public:• Hard to tell how government policies affect your area
• For Policy Makers:• Hard to tell what the cumulative impact of government
policies is on an area• National Infrastructure Plan• Regional Growth Funds
• For Business:• Hard to tell how government policies will affect your
business
Why does this matter?
• Open Data:• The coalition agreement states that ‘we will ensure that
all data published by public bodies is published in an open and standardised format, so that it can be easily used by third parties.’
• Localism Act:• Government becoming an enabler of spatially aware
local decision making through the provision of data.• More proactive than reactive
• Business Clusters:• BIS Supported• Contrasting experience in the North East and South
West
How does a M4E fit with Government Policy?
Example Map: Regional Growth Funds and Household Growth
Example Map: Relative Water Stress Levels
Example Map: Household growth and flood risk
Example Map: Regional Growth Funds and Deprivation
Example Map: HS2 and Deprivation
• A website portal containing layers for each of the key policies and programmes
• RTPI/IDOX Pilot launched TODAY
What do we suggest?
• Helps to boost growth
• More transparent
• Saves time and money
• Helps coordinate infrastructure across national borders
Some additional benefits include:
• Should the government bring together these maps in one place?
• What would the benefits of this approach be to your organisation?
• What key policy areas should be covered?
• Have we missed anything?
Our Consultation process is ongoing…
• Overwhelming support (95% surveyed) amongst a range of stakeholders
• ‘grounded in common sense’• ‘ensure regions receive [their] share of
funding’• ‘visualise…spatial relationships [for] planning’
What have we found out so far?
• Seeking support from government departments to assemble maps (eg on data.gov.uk) or provide basis for the Map for England
• Direct costs to the RTPI are limited to a Project Officer and support from the communications team
Map for England – what will it cost?
• Taking stock of consultation
• Seek to engender support from government and stakeholders.
• You spread the word!
What happens next?
• The study report and compendium of maps and the pilot website are available at:
• www.mapforengland.co.uk
Want to know more?