22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Futures Studies:An Overview ofBasic Concepts

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures

2001-2002 Fulbright Lecturer,Finland Futures Research Centre

wendy@infinitefutures.com http://www.infinitefutures.com

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

What do we...

See: the past, the present, trends. Wonder: what might happen? Fear: past disasters --> future crises. Desire: past successes --> future goals. Believe: who/what makes change? DO: who/what could help us create

change?

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Feelings and experiences:sources of ideas about the future

History(experiences)

Feelingsabout the future

Image of the Possible Future

outcomes were unexpected >>>

uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…>

WILDLY DIFFERENT:TRANSFORMATIONAL

outcomes were disasters or failures >>>

scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…>

NEGATIVE:NIGHTMARE

outcomes were wonderful! successes! >>>

hope, excitement, anticipation, producing…>

POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER

outcomes followed an expected pattern >>>

security, stability, producing…>

CONTINUITY: STAYS THE SAME

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Guidelines for thinkingabout the future... Make NO PREDICTIONS; Remember, there are NO FUTURE

FACTS; TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE

TODAY; Question assumptions when you hear,

“[..X..]” could *never* happen…”

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Futures Studies is…

a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based

approach to..

analyzing patterns of change in the past;

identifying trends of change in the present; and

extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future,

in order to help people create the futures they

most desire.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Inter, trans, meta disciplinary:

…etc.

futures studies

sociology

historyphilosophy,political science

economics

systemsscienceliterature

psychology

internationalrelations

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Alternative possible futures...

Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;

Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change.

trendsinnovationsrevolutions, etc.

possibility onepossibility two

possibility three…etc.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

…alternative possible futures

A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;

of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;

of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Alternative futures:possible, probable, and preferable

possible futures

probable futures

preferablefutures

objective of futures studies:act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Futures Studies is…..

NOT prediction, but

EXPLORATION

and

PROVOCATION.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Evaluating forecasts:

Any useful statementabout the future

should seem to be ridiculous.

-- Dator’s Axiom

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Five key componentsof applied futures research

ID & Monitor Change

CritiqueImplications

ImagineDifference

EnvisionPreferred

Plan andImplement

Identify patterns of change: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change.

Examine primary, secondary, tertiary impacts; inequities in impacts; differential access, etc.

Identify, analyze, and build alternative images of the future, or ’scenarios.’

Identify, analyze, and articulate images of preferred futures, or ’visions.’

Identify stakeholders, resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organize action; create change.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

The contextof applied futures research

environmental

social economic

technological

macro reality

political

organizational culture

criticalissue

other systems

profession, market, or field

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Identifying change...

• Current conditions;

• Cycles;• Trends;• Emerging

issues of change; and

• Wild cards.

• Locate its source;• Evaluate its

likelihood;• Monitor its

growth; and• Track its spread.

Kinds of change….

…lookeverywher

e!

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Environmental Scanning

Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emergence, growth, and coalescence of change.

Related to issues management and competitive intelligence.

”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to the logically structured, iterative monitoring of selected information sources.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Trends, emerging issues…and wild cards.

WILDCARD!!

TIME

numberof cases;degreeofpublicawareness

local;few cases;emergingissues

global; multiple dispersed cases;trends and megatrends

scientists;artists; radicals; lunatics

specialists’journals and websites

layperson’s magazines,websites, documentaries

newspapers,news magazines

governmentinstitutions

Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.

adapted from J. Coates,Issues Management

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

…looking for impacts

How might our homes & families change? How might our work change? How might our hobbies & leisure differ? How might we travel & communicate? How might childhood & education differ? How might our environment change? How might government & economy differ?

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Emerging issues of change…

24/7/365: no home-office divide – but flexibility!; By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk back,

and recognize us via biometrics; By 2015, hyper-reality widespread; By 2020, micromachines create “smart” materials; By 2020, people are “globens” – world citizens; By 2020, routine, computer language translation;

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

…emerging issues of change,

cont’d. By 2025, a manned mission to Mars; By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from

35-95 as “the same age;” 3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the

home fabrication unit. Continued global warming, with sea-level

rise; Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Futures Wheels:Workshop Instructions

Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.

Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next fifteen years.

Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.

Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.

change

work?

hobbies?

education?home/families?

travel?

communications?

economy?

environment?

Futures Wheel

primary effects

secondary effects

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Existing images ofalternative futures: sources Individuals… what do people think?

e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc. Culture... what do religions imply? political

ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers? advertisers? other artifacts? Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.

Forecasts… what trends have researchers extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists built? Secondary analysis of existing research and data.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes. Images of alternative possible futures; Based on trends and emerging issues; Exploratory, NOT predictive; Present both opportunities and threats; Real, NOT ideal; Used to create contingency plans.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Effective scenarios….provoke ideas!

• Vividly, boldly portray difference;• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Explain how the change unfolded –

tell the story of trends and impacts growing over time;

• Are written in the present tense, as if the future were happening now;

• Contain a few transformed elements of the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the scenario’s present day.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Scenarios vs. visions

Scenarios are futures for the HEAD: they allow us to explore our assumptions about possibilities.

Visions are futures for the HEART: they allow us to voice our most deeply felt values and goals.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Images of the future:a continuum of infinite

possibilities

all possible images of the future

dystopiasnightmares

utopiasvisionsscenarios:

downside

scenarios:PTE

scenarios: upside

wild cards!

wild cards!

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Effective visions….inspire action!

• Vividly, boldly portray hopes, ideals, and values;

• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Describe a ”future history” of actions and

projects that created the improved ”present;”• Are written in the present tense, as if the

preferred future were real now;• Contain a few transformed elements of the

”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the vision’s improved present day.

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation

tellingselling

testing

consulting

CO-CREATINGrequired capacity for direction-setting and learning

degree of active staff involvement

LOW

HIGH

HIGH

22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures

Implementation...

• Creating a timeline of milestones bridging from the imperfect present to a better future;

• Identifying stakeholders, allies, and collaborators;

• Inventorying resources; and• Marshalling commitment to

change.