2052 – a global forecast for the next forty years · 2019. 5. 28. · norwegian business school...

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1 J Randers 1


2052 –

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Jorgen Randers Professor

Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI

50 minutes lecture January 1st, 2014


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12 scenarios for the 21st century


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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0

1

1

1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3 4

4

4

4

5

5

5 5

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Food output

1: Population

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year 0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3 3

4 4

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Food output

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level


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The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth

1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if growth continue)

2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet)

3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market)


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For all numerical data and the forecast model,

consult the book website www.2052.info


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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population 2010

(billion people)

GDP 2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person 2010

(1000

$ pr person-year) US 0,3 13 41 China 1,3 10 7 OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate (scale →)

Death rate

Population (←scale)

% / yr Gpersons

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1


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World GDP growth will slow down

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012

0

30

60

90

120

150

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP (scale →)

G$ / yr % / yr

Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 (←scale)

g130605j

6.0

Gp

8.0

10.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

Population aged 15 to 65 (scale → →)

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce


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0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World GDP

Non-discretionary investment

(“unavoidable repair”)

G$ / yr

Consumption


Traditional investment

(24% of GDP)

Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050


Global consumption will peak in 2045


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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

Energy use will peak in 2040


0

60

120

180

240

300

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World energy use (←scale)

toe / M$ Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale →)

180

G$ / yr

World GDP (scale →→)

240

300

120

60

0 g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052


Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030

0,0

1,3

2,6

3,9

5,2

6,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Gas use

Coal use

Renewable energy use



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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions (←scale)

tCO2 / toe GtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy (scale →) 15

Gtoe/yr

Energy use (scale →→)

20

25

10

5



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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 in atmosphere (←scale)

deg C ppm

Temperature rise (scale →)

0.9

m

Sea level rise (scale →→)

1.2

1.5

0.6

0.3



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Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050

Food will satisfy demand – but not need


0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production (←scale)

Gha Gt / yr

Cultivated land (scale →)

6

t/ha-yr

Gross yield (scale →→)

8

10

4

2



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1. Growth in population and GDP will slow “by itself” – because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints

2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis

3. There will be enough resources – including energy, water and food – to cover demand (which is not the same as need)

4. There will be more poverty – both in the rich and the poor world

Discussion of the 2052 forecast


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There will be huge regional differences

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

World

BRISE

China

OECDless US

USA

ROW

After-tax income per person (in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)


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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast ♣ World population and economy

will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect

- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis

♣ Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend

ever more on repair and adaptation

♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus

of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development


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What should be done? - Ideally

1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy – first in rich world

2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from 2024

3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Give them a climate-friendly energy system

4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate compulsory vacation

5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions

6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish “increase in well-being” as a new goal


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What should be done? – Realistically (1 of 2)

1. Further slow population growth Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children Increase the pension age Explain that support burden will stay constant

2. Cut CO2 emissions – first in the rich world Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors Build no new fossil capacity in the rich world Introduce a high carbon price

3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity Copy the rise of Japan, South Korea, and China – and their use of strong government


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4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation Give each person the right to a certain amount of paid work (“ration paid work”)

5. Temper national short termism Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 than the US Evolve IPCC to IPCC3 (funded to execute the most effective cuts)

6. Reduce the focus on income growth Start measuring change in well-being alongside change in GDP

What should be done? – Realistically (2 of 2)


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Time to turn!

[email protected] www.2052.info


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What can you do on your own? Fight short-termism in the following ways: 1. Accept that the root problem is human short-termism

“My greed today damages my grandchildren!”

2. Tell the world that you will do your fair share once the majority agrees to act “I am ready if you are!” 3. Admit that the simplest solution is strong

government “I am in favour of tax-financed, collective action!” Or at the very least: 0. Buy CO2 emission rights in the European quota trading system and burn them!


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Slowing growth in total productivity - USA

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rate of growth in GDP per

person 15 to 65 years of age

% / yr

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c


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0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman

Total fertility

Long term trend

POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls

Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010


Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age


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Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity – World 1970 to 2050

Enough land – but less of it undisturbed


0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total biocapacity (←scale)

gha / person Ggha

Unused biocapacity per person (scale →)

Non-energy footprint (←scale)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 12a


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Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – State of Affairs – 1970 to 2050

OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population

Consumption

CO2 emissions GDP

Temperature rise

State of Affairs

Max values 0.8 Gp, 30 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 30 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C




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Figure 8-2_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – Production – 1970 to 2050

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production

Unused biocapacity

Energy use

Fraction renewable

Investment share of GDP

Production

Max values 3.2 Gtoe/yr, 50%, 40%, 1.2 Gt/yr, 50%





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Figure 8-3_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – Standard of Living – 1970 to 2052

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP per person

Consumption per person

Energy use per person

Sea level rise

Food per person

Standard of Living

Max values 5 toe/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 40,000 $/person-yr, 2 t/person-yr, 1.5 m




2052 – a global forecast for the next forty years · 2019. 5. 28. · norwegian business school...

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