2019 Wild Turkey Observation Survey Summary

RESULTS A total of 3,788 wild turkeys were recorded by the 91 individuals or groups that returned survey forms in 2019, significantly higher than the 2,582 turkeys observed by 99 participants in 2018. Statewide, the 2019 reproductive index was estimated at 2.8 poults per hen. This is well above the 2018 index of 1.9 poults per hen and near the 17-year average of 2.9 poults per hen. The survey documented increased reproductive success in all regions of the state. However, some regions saw above-average success, while others were near or somewhat below long-term averages. Statewide, 72% of hens were observed with young, well above the 48% seen with broods in 2018 and above the long-term average of 68%. In August, 83% of hens were seen with young, suggesting that nesting success was excellent this year. Observers recorded an average of 4.1 poults per brood. This is the highest number of poults seen per brood since 2015, but still slightly below the average of 4.3. This indicates that, although nesting success was high, poult survival was about average. Below average spring and summer rainfall in most of the state likely improved reproductive success this year. Research has shown that persistent wet weather increases predation on nests, likely because predators can scent nesting hens more effectively. The results suggest that reproductive success was at its highest level since 2015 in most of Maryland. Following three consecutive summers of poor reproduction, this year’s success should boost populations in most areas. Note that this survey provides an index to statewide and regional trends in reproduction, but local weather and habitat conditions can impact populations differently in certain areas. More detailed information and regional results can be found below.

Photo Credit: National Wild Turkey Federation

The Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) has annually conducted a summer wild turkey observation survey since 1993. The primary purpose of this survey is to estimate reproductive success, but other important information can be obtained from the data. Like most game birds, wild turkeys are very dependent on reproduction to add new individuals to the population. This information, along with other sources of data, allows managers to monitor turkey populations and helps explain any annual or regional population changes. Thanks to all the volunteers and DNR staff that assisted with this survey!

SURVEY METHODOLOGY Survey forms are distributed to interested DNR personnel, hunters, bird-watchers, landowners and citizens. The survey is conducted during the months of July and August when broods are most easily observed and age can be readily determined. Participants are asked to record the county and number of hens, poults, gobblers and “unknown” turkeys observed. An annual production index is calculated as the average number of poults observed per adult hen. Other important data, such as the average number of poults per brood and the percentage of hens observed with young, are also calculated.

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Table 1. Statewide Wild Turkey Observation Survey data, 2009-2019

Year No. of

Observations

No. of Turkeys Observed Percent of Hens

Observed w/ Brood Average No.

Poults per Hen Average No. Poults

per Brood Hens Poults Gobblers Unidentified Total

2009 542 871 2054 504 39 3468 67.7 2.6 3.9

2010 537 998 2738 347 10 4093 69.1 3.1 4.7

2011 567 1021 2665 441 16 4143 67.4 3.1 4.6

2012 464 902 2833 434 31 4200 77.3 3.3 4.5

2013 448 835 2059 405 17 3316 71.1 2.6 4.0

2014 520 954 2276 478 17 3725 69.0 2.7 4.1

2015 540 1054 3007 557 16 4634 78.2 3.1 4.2

2016 644 1176 1979 708 25 3888 51.6 2.0 3.8

2017 578 940 1919 544 12 3415 59.7 2.3 3.8

2018 502 851 1298 419 14 2582 47.9 1.9 3.2

2019 553 899 2403 472 14 3788 72.1 2.8 4.1

Average (since 2003)

455 804 2015 398 16 3234 68.3 2.9 4.3

Table 2. Regional Wild Turkey Observation Survey data, 2019

No. of Observations

No. of Turkeys Observed Percent of Hens Observed w/ Brood

Average No. Poults per Hen

Average No. Poults per Brood Hens Poults Gobblers Unidentified Total

Western 167 265 742 123 12 1142 74.0 2.8 3.7

Central 36 69 234 8 0 311 87.0 3.4 4.2

Southern 94 178 427 120 1 726 74.2 2.9 3.8

Upper ES 157 220 504 141 1 866 62.7 2.4 4.1

Lower ES 99 167 496 80 0 743 73.1 2.9 4.3 1 Regions defined as: Western – Garrett, Allegany, Washington; Central – Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, Howard, Montgomery, Anne Arundel Southern – Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’s Upper Eastern Shore – Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline Lower Eastern Shore – Dorchester, Wicomico, Worcester, Somerset

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Central Region: Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, Howard, Montgomery, Anne Arundel

In the Western region, participants recorded a below-average number of 2.8 poults per hen. A fair number of hens (74%) were seen with a brood, but the number of poults per brood was below average at 3.7. Although production has declined over time in the western region, turkey populations are generally stable. This year’s moderate reproductive success should be adequate to maintain populations at similar levels.

Observers in the Central region observed 3.4 poults per hen. This was the highest regional index in the state again this year and well above the average. An exceptional 87% of hens were seen with young and the number of poults per brood was also high at 4.2. The results from the survey explains why this region has had a very different population trend compared to the rest of the state. Turkey populations and occupied range have been growing rapidly here in recent years. This summer’s high production should further boost numbers in the region.

Western Region: Garrett, Allegany, and Washington

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Southern Region: Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, St. Mary’s

Upper Eastern Shore: Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline

The poult production index of 2.9 in the southern region was slightly below average, but still the highest in the region since 2015. More than 74% of hens were seen with young, indicating high nest success. The rapid population growth seen in this region during the time period of 2008-2012 appears to be stabilizing, but turkeys are still abundant here. This year’s moderate production should allow numbers to remain steady.

Observers In the upper eastern shore region recorded 2.4 poults per hen. This was the lowest in the state and likely due to the lower number of hens with young (63%). Although production was not high, it still was an improvement over the last three years. Turkey populations in this region grew and expanded rapidly in the mid-2000’s, but the population appears to have reached its carrying capacity and lower production levels can be expected. This year’s increase in poult production should help halt any possible population declines.

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Photo Credit: Greg Sharp

Prepared by: Bob Long, Wild Turkey and Upland Game Bird Project Manager Maryland Department of Natural Resources 410-221-8838, ext 108 bob.long@maryland.gov dnr.maryland.gov/wildlife

Lower Eastern Shore: Dorchester, Wicomico, Worcester, Somerset

An average of 2.9 poults per hen were observed in the lower eastern shore region, a significant increase from the last 3 years of poor production. A statewide high of 4.3 poults were counted per brood and 73% of hens were observed with young. Previously high turkey numbers have declined somewhat in this region. However this year’s strong production should add a significant number of birds to the population and help to reverse the trend.