2018-2040 Green Bus Technology Plan

November 2017

Rick Leary, Deputy CEOBem Case, Head of Vehicle Programs

Agenda

1. Evolution of Bus Technology

2. City / TTC Emissions Targets

3. Current Bus Technology Options

4. Recommendations

5. Proposed Procurements

6. Next Steps

2

1 Evolution of Bus Technology Transit is Green

= 1 BUS

70+ CARS (single occupancy)

229g

20g

BUS

CAR

CO2 Emissions (per passenger km)

3

1 Evolution of Bus Technology Evolution of Diesel Engine Emissions Standards

   

20

15

10

5

0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Oxi

des

of N

itrog

en (g

/bhp

-hr)

Particulate Matter (g/bhp

‐hr)

NOx

(unregulated)

PM (unregulated)

Reductions since 1980s

Nox 99%

PM 95%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) Particulate Matter - PM 4

1 Evolution of Bus Technology @ TTC

up to 1980’s HIGH EMISSIONS Up to -1990’s 2-Stroke Diesel

3

CNG

1

4

Trolley Bus

2 (569 in Fleet)

1990’s-2000’s (629 in Fleet)Conventional Diesel

5 2010’s Clean Diesel

1990’s TODAY Compressed

Natural Gas (CNG) 2000’s

HEV

6 New Gen CNG / RNG1st Gen Hybrid

(693 in Fleet) ? What’s Next

2nd Gen Hybrid

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric

Battery Electric ZERO EMISSIONS

5

1 Evolution of Bus Technology Current Technologies Used in North America

 

        

   

%Other Zero‐Emissions

Carbon Based Battery Electric

Diesel 65%

Natural Gas 19%

Hybrid 12%

3.77% Hydrogen Fuel Cell 0.03%

Fuels 0.2% Zero Emissions

6

2 City / TTC Emissions Targets

TransformTO Target:

Reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 80% by 2050

TTC Target:

Steady-state procurement of zero-emissions buses by 2025 in line with the C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration, and an all zero-emissions bus fleet by 2040.

7

3 Current Bus Technology Options Green House Gas (GHG): CO2 Emissions per kilometer

             

2.50

CONV DIESEL 1st GEN HEV CLEAN DIESEL CNG/RNG 2nd GEN HEV HYDROGEN FUEL CELL ELECTRIC

Tailpipe 1.79 1.32 1.55 1.33 1.11 0.00 0.00

Upstream 0.31 0.23 0.28 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.10

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

CO2 (kg/km

) 26%

13%

25%

38%

92% 95%

Baseline

Lowest Emissions of all Proven Technologies

BATTERY

Tailpipe Emissions

Upstream Fuel Production and Delivery Emissions

Upstream Electric Fuel Production and Delivery Emissions

8

3 Current Bus Technology Options Global Warming Potential Factors

Pollutants/Compounds GWP

100 years CO2 ‐ Carbon  Dioxide x1

CH4 ‐ Methane x34

N2O ‐ Nitrous  Oxide x298

9

3 Current Bus Technology Options Green House Gas (GHG): CO2 Emissions per kilometer

3 Current Bus Technology Options Public Health Perspective / Impact on Local Air Quality

Toronto Public Health:

The relative comparison of tailpipe emissions from the four propulsion technologies resulted in the following ranking:

i. Battery Electric (zero emissions)

ii. Diesel-Electric Hybrid / Compressed Natural Gas

iii. Diesel

11

          

     

                   

   

3 Current Bus Technology Options Life Cycle Cost Estimates vs Emissions

Delivery of CNG infrastructure within the

PTIF timeframe is uncertain.

Battery Electric Buses with PTIF are significantly less expensive than any

other option

Proven Technologies Unproven Technologies 12

3 Current Bus Technology Options Other Considerations: Natural Gas

• 12% lower tailpipe emissions vs diesel

• Same driving range as diesel

• Low fuel cost + potential for Renewable Natural Gas

• 16% lower maintenance costs

• 20% of transit buses in North America

• Bus capital cost +$70k vs. diesel

• Infrastructure required:

• Fuelling & de-fuelling stations

• Maintenance facility ventilation

• Bus operations tied to infrastructure 13

3 Other Considerations: 2nd Generation Hybrid Electric

Current Bus Technology Options

• 38% Lower tailpipe emissions vs diesel

• Same driving range as diesel

• No infrastructure required

• TTC has maintenance & operating experience

• Start/Stop + EV mode

• Nova Bus and New Flyer are have production slots available;

• Bus capital cost +$150k vs. diesel

14

3 Current Bus Technology Options Other Considerations: Battery Electric

• ZERO tailpipe emissions

• Limited driving range – 250 km (50% of TTC Service)

• Low operating and maintenance cost

• 30% fewer parts – higher reliability, theoretically

• TTC hybrid experience transferable

• Charging infrastructure required

• Bus tied to infrastructure

• Bus capital cost + $350k vs. diesel

• Long term reliability unknown

15

3 Battery Electric Buses Operating in North America

BC PE

SK

73 MB QC

ON NS

King County  AB

NB

Metro WA

ME

VTMT ND NH MA

MN OR

0 NY

RIID WISD MI

CT

12 WY PA NJ

DEIA

NENV MD IL IN OH 25 SEPTA

WVUT DC

10 COCA 36 10 16

VA

MO KYKS

NC

SCLA Metro 95 17 OK

TN

AZNM

AR <10 in-serviceGA AL

MS

Foot Hill 14 TX LA >10 in-service

FL

>10 on-order

Current Bus Technology Options Most NorthAmerican Operational

Experience is in more Temperate 

Climate

16

3 Current Bus Technology Options Other Considerations: Hydrogen Fuel Cell

• ZERO tailpipe emissions

• Good driving range – 450km (90% of TTC Service)

• TTC hybrid experience transferable

• Bus capital cost +$500k vs. diesel

• Infrastructure required:

• Fuelling station

• Hydrogen generating plant

• Maintenance facility ventilation required

• Bus operations tied to infrastructure

• Long term reliability unknown

17

3 Current Bus Technology Options Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses Operating in North America

PEBC AB

SK MB QC NB

ON NS

MEWA

VTMT ND NH MA

MN OR

NY ID RI

WISD MI CT

10 WY

10 PA NJ

DEIA

NENV MD IL IN OH

WVUT DCVA

CA CO

MO KY

10 KS

NC

TN

SCOK AR

GA

AZ NM <10 in-service

10 MS

AL

TX LA >10 in-service FL

>10 on-order

18

4 Recommendations

1. Purchase 30 All-Electric Buses

Delegate the authority to the TTC CEO to negotiate and enter into up to 3 contracts for the supply of a total of 30 all-electric buses and required infrastructure not to exceed the total project cost of $50M based on the following:

a) The award of contracts will be based on negotiating an acceptable agreement, satisfactory to TTC General Council with the only three qualified suppliers of long range (>200km/charge) all-electric buses, New Flyer, Proterra and BYD that are compliant with Transport Canada Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; and

b) delivery of all 30 buses are to be delivered no later than March 31, 2019 in order to ensure that the buses eligible for the PTIF funding.

19

4 Recommendations

2. Purchase 230 Hybrid-Electric Buses

Delegate the authority to the TTC CEO to enter into a contract(s) with up to two suppliers for the supply of 230 new generation hybrid-electric buses not to exceed the total project cost of $230M based on the following:

a) The award of the contract(s) will be based on negotiating an acceptable agreement, satisfactory to TTC General Counsel with the only two bus suppliers, Nova Bus and New Flyer, capable of manufacturing hybrid-electric buses that are compliant with Transport Canada Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, and

b) Hybrid-electric buses are to be delivered no later than March 31, 2019 in order to ensure that the buses are eligible for PTIF funding.

3. Report project status updates quarterly through the CEO Report.

20

5 Existing and Proposed TTC ProcurementsImpact on Bus Age Profile as of October 2017

  

 

     

Num

ber o

f Buses

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

261

134

79

153

0

62

35

120 130

408

100

230

118

159

0 0 0 0 0<1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Retain 80 buses for growth and to

supplement streetcar routes

New 9yr Total 309

Age of Bus (years) Year buses reach end of life: 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017

21

6 Next Steps

   

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Steady-State Procurement 2040

Milestone: PTIF Phase 1

325 Clean Diesel Buses

230 2nd Gen Hybrid-Electric

30 All-Electric Buses

No New Buses

Technology To Be Determined

Milestone: Steady State Procurement of Zero Emissions Buses

Milestone: Zero-Emissions Fleet

Major Milestone Est. Timeline

o

o

o

o

22

       

Questions

Thank you to our partners

23