2017 jd power auto summit - kerrigan advisors presentation

20
Dealerships Are Far Too Valuable To Be Sold Any Other Way

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Page 1: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Dealerships Are Far Too Valuable To Be Sold Any Other Way

Page 2: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Lots of Activity in the Buy/Sell Market

Page 3: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

1899

1904

1909

1914

1919

1924

1929

1934

1939

1944

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Source: SEC Filings

709.272008.11.20 – 2015.06.05Market Takes Off

968% Rise (Nov. 2008-June 2015)

The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index – Hit a Historic High in June 2015Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 4: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Dec 99

Mar 04

May 08Ju

l 12

Sep 16

Nov 20

Jan 25

Mar 29

May 33Ju

l 37

Sep 41

Nov 45

Jan 50

Mar 54

May 58Ju

l 62

Sep 66

Nov 70

Jan 75

Mar 79

May 83Ju

l 87

Sep 91

Nov 95

Jan 00

Mar 04

May 08Ju

l 12

350400450500550600650700750

Source: SEC Filings

42% Decrease (June 2015-Jan. 2016)

408.812015.06.05 – 2016.01.28

The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index – Declined 42% Coming into 2016Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 5: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

$211

$504 $502$659

$1,449

$832$572

Source: SEC Filings

Public Dealership Group Acquisition Spending in USSince 2010

31%

*2016 represents acquisitions for first 9 months

Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

The Publics Acquisition Spending Declines in 2016

Page 6: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Public’s Capital Allocation through Q3 2016

Stock Buyback$1,143

Dividends$110

Capex$799

Non-Dealership Acquisition

$521

Foreign Acquisi-tion

$163

Domestic Acquisi-tion

$578

Publics Allocate Their Capital Elsewhere

“There is no question that our move into the Premier Truck Freightliner retail business was driven because of some of the multiples and goodwill requirements we had on the auto side.”

Roger Penske, Chairman and CEO Penske Automotive3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Source: SEC Filings

Page 7: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

2013 2014 2015 2016

9.2x 9.1x

7.6x6.7x

Public’s Estimated Blue Sky Multiples “This is an interesting industry. If we look back over time, there are times when the private dealers are valued at premiums well above where the publics trade. And there are times where the exact opposite happens.”

Craig Monaghan President, CEOAsbury Automotive2nd Quarter Earnings Call

Public Estimated Blue Sky Multiples Down Since 2014

6.2x

Source: Kerrigan Advisors Analysis

Page 8: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

US Dealership Market Share

14,930 dealerships are ownedBy small groups and individuals

5.2%

82.9%

0.118166666666667

Non-Public DealershipsPublic Dealership Groups

Auto Retail – Still a Highly Fragmented Market

Page 9: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Source: The Banks Report

Number of Transactions2013 to 2016

2013 2014 2015 2016*

114 Transactions

206 Transactions

241 Transactions 229

Transactions+ 17%

*2016 represents first 9 months of acquisitions annualized

+ 81%

- 5%

101% Increase

Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Number of Transactions – Still Near Record

Page 10: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

2014 2015 2016 Annualized

50 51

65

Multi-Dealership Transactions

Multi-Dealership Transactions Increased in 2016

27%

Increase

Source: The Banks Report

Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 11: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$594 $680

$816

$968 $1,000 $1,085

$1,230

Average Revenue of Top 119 Private Dealership Groups(in millions)

107% Increase

Source: Automotive News

Private Dealership Groups Significantly Increase in SizeText Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 12: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Domestic51%

Import Luxury19%

Import Non-Luxury29%

Buy/Sell Franchise Transaction Market Share2016

Domestic35%

Import Luxury22%

Import Non-Luxury43%

2015

Domestic Franchises in High Demand in 2016Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Source: The Banks Report and Kerrigan Advisors Research

Page 13: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

4 and Under 4 - 5 5 - 6 6 - 7 7 - Priceless

Average Kerrigan AdvisorsBlue Sky Multiple Ranges

Franchise Preferences Influenced by ROI, Capital Requirements and Risk

More Operational Risk

Higher ROI

LowerROI

More Capital Risk

Page 14: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Luck Running Out?

The Auto Retail Elixir

Page 15: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Source: NADA

2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD0%

5%

10%

15%

3.9%

8.3%

New Vehicles Sales Fixed Operations

Fixed Operations in Growth ModeText Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

New Vehicle and Fixed Operations Sales Growth for the Average Dealership

Page 16: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

New Vehicle Used Vehicle Fixed Operations

6% 12%

45%

Source: NADA

Average Dealership Gross Profit Margin by Department

2.1x

7.5x

Fixed Operations and Used Vehicles Drive Dealership Profits

“Parts and service was the highlight of the quarter. We were able to offset the declines in our new and used business with strong growth in parts and service.”

David HultCFOAsbury Automotive3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Page 17: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Source: SEC Filings, NADA

SG&A as a Percentage of Gross Profit YTD 2016

Average Public Dealership

Average Private Dealership

73%

86%

13% Delta

Economies of Scale and Scope Support Continued ConsolidationText Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 18: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

Source: SEC Filings

12/31

/2015350

400

450

500

550

600

544.452016.01.28 – 2016.12.30

27% Rise

Since Electi

on

The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index – Experiencing the Trump Bump Text Speaker Questions to: (805) 330-3311

Page 19: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation
Page 20: 2017 JD Power Auto Summit - Kerrigan Advisors Presentation

TEXT QUESTIONS TO (805) 330-3311

Sold ToGee Automotive

Sold ToLithia Motors

Sold ToAMSI

Sold ToKDW Automotive

Sold ToMcManes Auto Group

MERCEDES-BENZ OF EDMONTON

WESTSold To

Kendall Auto GroupSold To

AutoNationSold To

Car ProsSold To

Victory Automotive

Recent Transactions

Securities offered through Bridge Capital Associates, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC