1.  Welcome 2.  Complete the ‘Get to know Each Other’ Survey 3.  Health and Safety – Dealing with conflict, Walking at night 4.  Meet your Group and sign ‘Thank You’ cards 5.  Meet the MI Team 6.  Purpose (the goal) – What does success look-like? 7.  Output (the end)– What is the role of the playing cards and the

workshop booklet? 8.  Process (the means)– How will we deliver on the purpose? 9.  Basic Future Studies 10.  Agenda for tomorrow 11.  Thank you

Fire Escapes – Health & Safety Tuesday 26 April 2016

Fire Escapes – Health & Safety Wednesday 27 April 2016

Fire Escapes – Health & Safety Thursday 28 April 2016

Being at Treasury

What is the cone of plausibility? What is the Cone of Plausibility?

Workshop Programme

The Game

Challenges: matching apples with apples

Challenges: Weak Signals

What is Talent

What is the relationship between data, information and knowledge?

What is public policy?

“The role of the analyst in the policymaking process is similar to that of the scout in relation to the football coach. The job of the scout is not to predict in advance the final score of the game, but to assess the strengths and weakness of the opponent so that the coach can devise a winning game plan. Then the scout sits in a booth with powerful binoculars to report on specific vulnerabilities the coach can exploit.” – Douglas MacEachin, CIA Deputy Director of Intelligence, 1993-1995 [Page 289]

What is a scenario?

Scenarios are probable or possible stories about how a future might unfold. They are best prepared by diverse groups of individuals (i.e. disciplines, organisations and cultures). A scenario is a set of complex ideas that can be described with a brief title and therefore communicated easily and quickly. Generating multiple scenarios helps determine the assumptions, events and trends likely to influence how a situation might develop. Together they aim to answer questions such as:

(i) What should we being doing now to prepare for these futures? (ii) What early warning signs might indicate a movement towards or away from a scenario?

What is the difference between foresight and strategy?

Strategy is about choice, trade-offs and

approach

Foresight is about staying

open to all possibilities

Alignment is about matching

goals to resources

What are the components of strategy?

Thoughts from 2015

1. Focus on providing citizens choice rather than independence/freedom (as a focus on choice will over time deliver independence and freedom)

2. Focus on being fair rather than being equal (as working on being fair is likely to lead to a more equal and cohesive society)

3. Focus on strengthening families (inter and intra generational) rather than individuals (as it will make society more resilient to shocks)