2016 Sonoma City: Local Economic Profile

2016S O N O M AC O U N T Y

Table of Contents

1. Letter and Highlights

2. Population and Demographics

3. Population and Income Projection

4. Employment

5. Residential Real Estate

6. Real Estate and Construction

7. Consumer Spending and Taxable Sales

8. Education

9. City Data Snapshot

Sonoma City: Local Economic Profile

The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB), in partnership with the Sonoma County Workforce Investment Board (WIB), the City of Sonoma, and the Sonoma Chamber of Commerce is pleased to present the 2016 Sonoma City Local Economic Profile. The City of Sonoma comprises 2.74 square miles and serves as the economic hub for the greater Sonoma Valley, which has a population of about 39,000.

Highlights from this Local Economic Profile include:

■ Sonoma city’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 4.2% in July 2015, lower than Sonoma County (4.6%), California (6.5%) and the nation (5.6%) for the same month.

■ The population of Sonoma city in 2015 was 11,202, and it is expected to rise 4.65% to 11,735 by 2020. This is greater than the projected population increase of 2.7% for Sonoma County over the same period.

■ Between 2000 and 2015, the median household income in Sonoma City grew by 18% to $59,596. Looking into 2020, this growth is expected to continue with median income rising to $72,299, an increase of around 21% from 2015.

■ Median home prices in Sonoma city are significantly increasing after prices rose 12.8% from 2013 to 2014.

While every effort was made to ensure this report contained up-to-date information, certain data was unavailable at the time this report was released; thus, some figures may reflect years previous to 2015.

Thank you for your interest in the Economic Development Board’s research. For additional information, questions, comments, or suggestions please contact us at (707) 565-7170 or visit www.sonomaedb.org. For other city-specific questions, please visit www.sonomacity.org and/or www.sonomachamber.org.

BeExEc

Pamela Chanter Pamela Chanter Chair Economic Development Board

Ben Stonen Stoneecutive Directoronomic Development Board

Board of Directors Pamela Chanter, Chair Richard Carvolth Nick Papdopoulos Michael Nicholls Linda Kachiu Jorge Alcazar Tara Jasper

Michael Tomasini Wayne Leach Terry Garrett

©2015 Sonoma County Economic Development Board. The Economic Development Board (EDB) believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates. This publication can be made available in alternative formats such as Braille, large print, audiotape, or computer disk. Please direct requests to (707) 565-7170 and allow 72 hours for your request to be processed. This report was prepared by Brian Marland.

EDBECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD

SONOMA COUNTY

www.sonomaedb.org

2

Population & Demographics

The population of Sonoma City in 2015 was 11,202, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, it is expected to rise about 4.65% to 11,735 by 2020. This is greater than the projected population increase of 2.7% for Sonoma County over the same period. From 2000 to 2015, Sonoma City’s population grew 18%. The City of Sonoma comprises 2.74 square miles and serves as the economic hub for the greater Sonoma Valley, which has a population of about 39,000.

In 2015, in the population of those 25 and older, 16% of residents had obtained a High School Diploma. This is lower than Sonoma County in the same year with 20% of residents obtaining diplomas. The category of Some College consists of individuals who have taken college courses but who have never received their degree. In 2015, about 26% of residents had obtained a Bachelor’s Degree and around 15% had received a Graduate or Professional Degree, which are both higher than the county average.

A new trend we see moving into 2020 is the increase in the Hispanic population in Sonoma city. Between 2010 and 2020 there is predicted to be a 4.1 percentage point increase. This is on par with to Sonoma County where there will be a 4 percentage point increase overall in Hispanic population.

2000 2010 20202015

Total Population,Sonoma City

Thou

sand

s of

Res

iden

ts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 Population 25+ by Educational AttainmentSonoma City

29%

26%16%

15%

9%

Graduate/Professional Degree

Some College

Bachelor’s Degree

Less than 9th Grade

High School, No Diploma

Associate Degree

HS Graduate/GED

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

White Hispanic Some Other RaceAlone

American IndianAsian African American

Sonoma City Population byRace/Ethnicity

2010

2015

2020

Source all: U.S. Census Bureau 2000, 2010; ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)

Population & Income Projection

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The population by age in Sonoma City in 2015 and 2020 followed a wide distribution with an overall increase in aging individuals, and according to Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) projections, the 65 and older population is expected to increase the greatest amount by 2020. This is creating a decrease in individuals 10-24 and 45-64 between 2015 and 2020.

Between 2000 and 2015, the median household income in Sonoma City grew by 18% to $59,596. Looking into 2020, this growth is expected to continue with median income rising to $72,299, an increase of around 21% from 2015.

As income in Sonoma City rose between 2000 and 2015, the percentage of households earning less than $35,000 was reduced by about 4 percentage points. The fastest growing income range was $150,000-$199,999, followed by gains in the $200,000+ range.

A trend that remains consistent into 2020 is the shrinking percentage of households earning less than $35,000. The proportion of Sonoma City in this range will decrease by 5 percentage points from 2015 to 2020. This trend, coupled with the increasing proportion of Sonoma City earning over $100,000, will result in further concentration of households in higher-income tiers.

0%

30%

10%

20%

Population by Age,Sonoma City

0-4 5-9 10-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Age

Per

cent

of P

opul

atio

n

2015

2020

2000 2011 20202015

Median Household Income,Sonoma City

Thou

sand

s of

Dol

lars

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Source all: U.S. Census Bureau 2000, 2010; ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)

Households by Income, Sonoma City

2020

20152000

$200

,000+

$150

,000-$

199,9

99

$100

,000-$

149,9

99

$75,0

00-$9

9,999

$50,0

00-$7

4,999

$35,0

00-$4

9,999

$25,0

00-$3

4,999

$15,0

00-$2

4,999

<$15

,000

Per

cent

age

of H

ouse

hold

s

0%

10%

20%

30%

Employment

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Sonoma City’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate was 4.2% in July 2015, lower than Sonoma County (4.6%) for the same month. Compared to July of the previous year, Sonoma City’s unemployment rate is down 1.1 points from 5.3%. Unemployment remains significantly lower in Sonoma City compared to its peak of 9.1% in January of 2010. Sonoma City’s unemployment rate is below both the state (6.5%), and the nation (5.6%).

Total employment in Sonoma City was 5,200 in July 2015, which is up 0.4% from a year earlier. Employment has been following an increasing trend since 2010.

The total number of business establishments in 2015 in Sonoma City is 1271. Sonoma County has about 25,800 business establishments.

About 54% of Sonoma City’s employed population is in the category of Services, which includes education, health care, tourism and legal services. The second largest sector is Retail trade, followed by Manufacturing. This is very similar to the county average.

Sonoma City Seasonally UnadjustedUnemployment Rate, 2008 - July 2015

Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08

Sonoma City Seasonally UnadjustedEmployment, 2008 - July 2015

Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)

Thou

sand

s of

Em

ploy

ees

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08

Source: ESRI Business Analyst projections (www.esri.com)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Total Business Establishments2015

Santa Rosa

Petaluma

Rohnert Park

Windsor

City of Sonoma

Healdsburg

Sebastopol

Cotati

Cloverdale

Number of Businesses

Source: ESRI Business Analyst projections (www.esri.com)Source: ESRI Business Analyst projections (www.esri.com)

Sonoma City Employed Population 16+ by Industry,2015

54%

10%

9%

8%

Services

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Construction

Agriculture and Mining

Transportation and Utilities

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

Public Administration

Wholesale Trade

7%

6%

Residential Real Estate

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Median home prices in Sonoma city are significantly increasing after prices rose 12.8% from 2013 to 2014. Median home prices have been trending upwards since 2011 and reached $588,900 in 2014.

The total number of houses sold in Sonoma city decreased by 7 in 2014 to 562. The number of houses sold had been rising steadily since 2009, but rising home prices have slowed down the real estate market in 2013 and 2014.

The average sales price of a home in Sonoma City for 2014 was $835,899. This puts Sonoma city at the higher end of the spectrum for homes in the area, $263,971 higher than the county average.

Median Price of an Existing Home in Sonoma city, 2003-2014

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03

Thou

sand

s of

Dol

lars

Total Number of Houses Sold in Sonoma city,2003-2014

300

400

500

600

700

800

'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03

Source all: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (www.bareis.com)

Average Sales Price ($ Thousands) by Sub-County Area, 2014County Average Price ($ Thousands)

WindsorCotatiCloverdale$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1000

Average Sales Price ($ Thousands)

SonomaSebastopolSanta RosaRohnert ParkPetalumaHealdsburg

Real Estate & Construction

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6

Sonoma city’s residential housing vacancy has been historically higher than Sonoma County’s. From 2000 to 2015, the city’s residential housing vacancy rate increased 4.3 percentage points, compared to a 3.4 percentage points gain across the county. Sonoma city’s residential housing vacancy rate is expected to decrease 1.4 points from 10.2% in 2015 to 9.8% in 2020.

The values of residential and non-residential building permits in Sonoma city in July 2015 were $26,213,980 and $7,632,858, respectively. Building permit values reflect trends in construction activity and both residential and non-residential building permits have been increasing over the past 3 years.

Sonoma City and Sonoma CountyResidential Housing Vacancy*

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

'20'15'10'00

SonomaSonoma County

*Vacancy includes both owner and rental units. Source: ESRI Business Analyst (www.esri.com)

Value of Residential & Non-Residential Building Permits in Sonoma City, 2000 - 2015

Source: California Homebuilding Foundation

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40 Non-residential

Residential

'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00

In M

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

Consumer Spending & Taxable Sales

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Sonoma city’s taxable sales continued increasing with a gain of 6.7% in 2013 from 2012. This continues the upward trend starting after taxable sales bottomed out in 2009. The gain seen in 2013 is consistent with the positive economic activity across Sonoma County. The county saw an increase of 8.6% in taxable sales in 2013, while the state rose by a more modest 5%.

Compared to the national average, Sonoma city residents spend more on education, travel, and cash contributions/gifts. Sonoma City residents spend more than 70% of household income on housing, other*, transportation and food.

Total Taxable Sales in Sonoma city,1997-2013

Source: California Board of Equalization (www.boe.ca.gov)

$100

$150

$200

$250

'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99'98'97

In M

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online (www.bao.esri.com)

Pensions and Social Security$44,289,670

Cash Contributions/Gifts$16,464,250

Travel$12,986,286

Education$10,254,693

Transportation$62,727,034

Other*$63,368,066

Housing$138,076,217

Entertainment and Recreation$20,690,178

Food$52,106,414

Healthcare$30,140,294

Consumer Spending by Commodity in Sonoma City, 2015

*The Other category includes Apparel and Services, Alcoholic Beverages, Household Operations, Housekeeping Supplies, Household furnishings and equipment, Life/Other Insurance, Miscellaneous, Personal Care Product and Services, and Smoking Products.

30.6%

14.1%13.9%

11.6%

9.8%

Education

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The Sonoma Valley Unified School District serves the greater Sonoma Valley, including the City of Sonoma along with the unincorporated communities of El Verano, Boyes Hot Springs, Fetters Hot Springs, Agua Caliente, Glen Ellen, Vineburg and Schellville. The district enrolls about 4,600 students each year.

The percentage of English learners in the Sonoma Valley Unified School District is 33.5%. This includes elementary, middle, and high school students. The ratio of English learners in the Sonoma Valley Unified School District is well above the county average of 23.2%, as well as the state average of 22.3%.

The average SAT score for a student from the Sonoma Valley School District in the 2013-14 school year was 1466. This places the Sonoma Valley Unified School District below the county average of 1578, and below the state average of 1487.

English Learners by School District,2014-15

Percent of Total Students

Source All: California Department of Education (www.cde.ca.gov)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Healdsburg Unified School District

Sonoma Valley Unified School District

Cloverdale Unified School District

Santa Rosa City Schools

Sonoma County

California

Windsor Unified School District

Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District

Sebastopol Union School District

Petaluma City Schools

Cloverd

ale U

nified

Schoo

l Dist

rict

Cotati-R

ohne

rt Park

Unified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

Califor

nia

Healds

burg

Unified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

Sonoma Vall

ey U

nified

School D

istric

t

Wind

sor U

nified

Sch

ool D

istric

t

1300

1390

1480

1570

1660

1750

Sonom

a Cou

nty

Petalum

a Join

t

Union H

igh S

choo

l

Santa

Rosa

High S

choo

l

West S

onom

a Cou

nty

Union H

igh S

choo

l

(Seb

astop

ol)

3-Year Average: 2011-14

Average Total SAT Scores by School District

2013-14 School Year

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9

City Data Snapshot

Cloverdale

TotalPopulation

2015

8,858

UnemploymentRate

June 2015

3.7%

MedianHousehold

Income2015

$57,643

MedianPrice of an

Existing Home2014

$350,000

BusinessEstablishments

2015

333

Total TaxableSales2013

(Millions)

$62

Cotati 7,399 5.7% $62,498

$399,000 546 $166

Healdsburg 11,681 3.7% $61,950 $625,000 1137 $328

Petaluma 59,322 3.3% $75,655 $540,000 3,093 $1,028

Rohnert Park 41,967 4.5% $58,719 $399,000 1,555 $625

Santa Rosa 171,827 4.8% $57,602 $420,000 8,498 $2,907

Sebastopol 7,490 3.7% $57,607 $639,000 859 $143

City of Sonoma 11,202 3.9% $59,596 $588,900 1,271 $243

Windsor 27,221 3.7% $77,205 $470,000 933 $352

SonomaCounty* 494,431 4.3% $61,807 $459,000 25,800 $8,018

Sources and Notes

www.sonomaedb.org

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Note on Data Sources

The 2016 Sonoma City Local Economic Profile is a brief summary on various demographic, economic and social aspects of Sonoma City. Economic Development Board (EDB) research originates from information available from outside resources and previously published material. The 2016 Sonoma City Local Economic Profile offers partial or composite representations of raw data and cites respective source data sets. For more information, please see the listed sources.

The Local Economic Profile does not provide complete in- depth analyses of all facets of the incorporated cities or the county. The EDB believes all data contained within this report to be accurate and the most current available, but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Use of data from an outside source does not represent an endorsement of any product or service by the EDB, its members or affiliates.

The 2016 Sonoma City Local Economic Profile was devel-oped from national and local data sources. Interested readers are encouraged to contact data source agencies or organiza-tions for further research. Readers are also invited to suggest for future reports by calling (707) 565-7170 or e-mailing edb@sonoma-county.org.

Sources

Bay Area Real Estate Information Services

California Board of Equalization

California Department of Education

California Employment Development Department

California Homebuilding Foundation

ESRI Business Analyst

Keegan and Coppin Company

U.S. Census Bureau

The EDB is pleased to thank the following Signature Sponsors for their support of our important programs.

Economic Development Board141 Stony Circle, Ste. 110Santa Rosa, CA 95401(707)565-7170www.SonomaEDB.org

PRESENTING LEVEL

FOUNDATION LEVEL

PREMIER LEVEL

EXECUTIVE LEVEL

MEDIA LEVEL

Sonoma County Board of Supervisors

EDBECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD

SONOMA COUNTY

American AgCreditAmerican River BankCity of Santa RosaComcastGeorge Petersen InsuranceKeegan & Coppin Co.

Midstate ConstructionNorBARSonoma County AllianceSummit State BankVantreo InsuranceZainer Rinehart Clarke