20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

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© OLIVER WYMAN April 1, 2013 Airport Performance & Economic Outlook Update

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Page 1: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

© OLIVER WYMAN

April 1, 2013

Airport Performance & Economic Outlook Update

Page 2: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year

Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary 2012 – October 2013

1Source: Planestats.com, based on Innovata Flight Schedules as of March 22, 2013

Page 3: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year

Percent Change in Carrier Monthly Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary – October 2013

2Source: Planestats.com, based on Innovata Flight Schedules as of March 22, 2013

Page 4: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

ONT – A Growth Airport Throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2012 passengers at same level as in mid-1980s when Los Angeles acquired the airport

Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012

Source: LAWA 3

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Page 5: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

ONT – A Growth Airport Throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2013 passengers level in danger of dropping below 4 million at current rate of monthly decline

Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012

Source: LAWA Statistics; Johnson Aviation Analysis 4

‐8%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Page 6: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Inland Empire Population Continues to GrowRiverside and San Bernardino Counties population growth continues despite economic recession

Inland Empire Population Growth (millions)1986-2012

Source: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013 5

Page 7: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Inland Empire Employment…”Solid Strong Job Growth” John E. Husing, Ph.D.

Cautious optimism in employment turn around in 2011 and 2012. Employment is up 1.6% for all of 2012 and unemployment is falling.

Source: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013 6

Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012 (through November 2012)

Page 8: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Inland Empire Employment Growth Accelerating“[E]mployment has increased to 1.6%, which is on par with LA County, and only slightly below the state average, Orange County…” Beacon Economics

Source: Beacon Economics 7

Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012

Page 9: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Inland Empire Employment Growth Accelerating“[E]mployment has increased to 1.6%, which is on par with LA County, and only slightly below the state average, Orange County…” Beacon Economics

Source: Beacon Economics 8

Inland Empire Employment Information2011-2012

Page 10: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Inland Empire Income has Deteriorated over the Last Decade“Most Inland Empire families feel that their purchasing power has declined in recent years. They are right.” John E. Husing, Ph.D.

Sources: John E. Husing, Ph.D., Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report, January 2013; 1990-2000 Census, 2011 American Community Survey,L.A. Anaheim-Riverside Consumer Price Index 9

Median IncomeInland Empire, Current and Constant Dollar (2011=1001990-2011

Page 11: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

10

$1,342 

‐ $181 

‐ $251  ‐$15 ‐$48 

‐$46 

$802 

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total

Millions

In 2011 US$

Source: Oliver Wyman Analysis

Total Economic Impact of ONT Was $849 Million in 2012Total economic loss of $540 Million versus 2007Total job loss of 10,100 jobs versus 2007

Page 12: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

The following slides were presented on February 4, 2012 to the OIAA Board

Page 13: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ONT Versus Competing Airports in the Region

Sources: Southern California Airports

Passengers at Southern California Regional Airports (Millions)2000-2012

John Wayne

OntarioBurbank

Long Beach

Palm Springs

2000-2012

14.0%

-36.3%-14.6%

402.6%

33.6%

LAX -5.1%

12

2011-12Change

2.9%

-5.4%-5.7%

2.9%

14.3%

3.0%

Page 14: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Southern California Airport RegionalizationRegional total passengers down 4.7% since 2007; ONT down 40.3%

Passenger Totals of Southern California AirportsLAX, Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Palm Springs

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Mill

ion

Ann

ual P

asse

nger

s

LAX

Ontario

Burbank

John Wayne

Long Beach

Palm Springs

LAX 67.30 61.61 56.22 54.98 60.70 61.49 61.04 62.44 59.82 56.52 59.07 61.86 63.69

Ontario 6.76 6.70 6.52 6.55 6.94 7.21 7.05 7.21 6.23 4.89 4.81 4.55 4.31

Burbank 4.75 4.49 4.62 4.73 4.92 5.51 5.69 5.92 5.33 4.59 4.46 4.30 4.06

John Wayne 7.77 7.32 7.90 8.54 9.27 9.63 9.61 9.98 8.99 8.71 8.66 8.61 8.86

Long Beach 0.64 0.59 1.45 2.88 2.93 3.03 2.76 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.98 3.12 3.21

Palm Springs 1.28 1.18 1.11 1.25 1.37 1.42 1.53 1.61 1.54 1.47 1.50 1.51 1.73

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Southern California Airports

Page 15: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

© OLIVER WYMAN © OLIVER WYMAN

Passenger Share of Southern California AirportsLAX, Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Palm Springs

Southern California Airport RegionalizationLAX’s market share has steadily increased since 2007, and is the same as in 1990

Source: Southern California Airports14

Page 16: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

ONT in Perspective

2000-2012 Passenger Growth Comparison Indexed to 2000=1.00

Sources: Southern California Airports, BTS

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

U.S. average

ONT

LAX

LA Area

15

Page 17: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

ONT Passengers Declined by 5.4% in 2012Passenger decline is less than the 7.0% decline in number of seats

Sources: ONT airport stats; OAG; U.S. DOT T100 reports

2012, 2011, 2007 ONT Annual Passengers and Load Factors

16

Page 18: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

ONT – A Growth Airport throughout Much of Its History Until Recently2012 passengers at same level as in mid-1980s when Los Angeles acquired the airport

Annual Passengers at ONT (Millions)1980-2012

Source: LAWA 17

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Page 19: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Ontario Will Continue to Lose Air Service into This Year

Scheduled Seats at Ontario International AirportCompared to Prior Year Same MonthJanuary 2012 – July 2013

Source: OAG, as of January 27, 2013 18

Page 20: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Within the Region, only LAX and ONT Handle Significant Air Cargo

Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)

ANNUAL CARGO TONS YE JULY 2012

LAX 1,640,116

ONT 412,153

SNA 19,779

LGB 25,056

BUR 43,637

PSP 102

Source: US DOT cargo statistics from T100

Page 21: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Nearly all ONT cargo is carried by UPS and FedExAll international cargo is carried by UPS

Source: LAWA cargo statistics for ONT 2012

ONT Air Cargo - % Carried by Each Airline2012

Page 22: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

National cargo trend fell through 2009 and has rebounded somewhat

-0.2% -10.5% -8.9% 8.5% -1.7% -0.6%

Source: US DOT cargo statistics from T100

Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)

Page 23: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

Different air cargo growth patterns at ONT and LAX- Consistent ONT growth since 2009 low, although volume still 16.6% below 2005- LAX growth uneven since 2009; 2012 volume is down 6.6% from 2005

ONT Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail) LAX

Annual Air Cargo Tons (Freight and Mail)

Source: LAWA cargo statistics

Page 24: 20130401 oiaa airport performance update briefing_v4

About Oliver WymanWith offices in 50+ cities across 25 countries, Oliver Wyman is a leading global management consulting firm that combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, organizational transformation, and leadership development. The firm’s 3,000 professionals help clients optimize their businesses, improve their operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver Wyman is part of Marsh & McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC]. For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.com

Oliver Wyman’s global Aviation, Aerospace & Defense practice helps passenger and cargo carriers, OEM and parts manufacturers, aerospace/ defense companies, airports, and MRO and other service providers develop value growth strategies, improve operations, and maximize organizational effectiveness. Our deep industry expertise and our specialized capabilities make us a leader in serving the needs of the industry. Also, Oliver Wyman offers a powerful suite of industry data and analytical tools to drive key business insights through www.planestats.com.

For more information, please contact:Bob [email protected]