2012 holiday forecast final

1
Expect record sales for the 2012 holiday season. Adobe predicts a record-seing $2-billion Cyber Monday, growing by 18% over 2011. Black Friday may fall from the second to the third largest online shopping day as Free Shipping Day occurs on a Monday for the first time, which tends to be the busiest online shopping day of the week. In addition, mobile will represent 21% of total online purchases this holiday, an increase of 110% over last year (13.5% from tablets, 6.5% from smartphones and 1% from other devices such as e-readers). BLACK FRIDAY Black Friday is expected to be the second largest online sales day of 2012 when retailers will see a sales increase of 12% YoY. CYBER MONDAY Brick-and-Click retailers will see a 540% increase in revenue compared to an average day throughout the year while online-only retailers will see sales increase by 210%. GREEN MONDAY e typical retailer can expect to see a sales increase of nearly one and a half times compared to an average day throughout the year. FREE SHIPPING DAY Purchases for jewelry will double on this day as a popular last-minute giſt for procrastinating shoppers. e algorithms used to create the predictive analysis are based on more than 150 billion online visits to over 500 retail websites in the U.S. and Europe over the past six years. e margin of error is two percent with a 90 percent confidence level and the forecast’s methodology and degree of accuracy has been evaluated and verified by b3Intelligence, an independent analytics and research service provider. Adobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Prediction line (Margin of error +/- 2% with 90% confidence interval) NOVEMBER 2012 DECEMBER 2012 2x 3x 4x NORMAL DAILY ONLINE SALES NEW YEAR’S EVE DOUBLE CONVERSION RATE 150 % SALES INCREASE 300 % REVENUE INCREASE 12 % SALES INCREASE For both Brick-and-Click and Online-only retailers, Cyber Monday accounts for more sales than Black Friday. 64% 36% 43% 57% B R I C K - A N D - C L I C K O N L I N E - O N L Y INCREASE IN MOBILE SALES Mobile is expected to represent 21% of total online sales during the 2012 holiday season. Sales from mobile devices are projected to increase 110% compared to last year, with sales from tablets constituting 13.5% of total sales, more than double that of smartphones (6.5%) and other devices such as e-readers (1%). European consumers are expected to start holiday shopping sooner and finish later than their U.S. counterparts. While online sales in the U.S. do not pick up significantly until Black Friday, European retailers were seeing average daily sales increase by 150% the first week of November and will see a similar spike immediately following Christmas. HOLIDAY SHOPPING IN EUROPE Social media referrals to retail websites this holiday season is projected to double compared to last year. Out of these social referral sources, referrals from Pinterest is expected to grow the most, doubling from 7% to 14% YoY. Visit the interactive graph for daily updates on the actual shopping activity during the season and get more details by retail category, type, and geography. Holiday 2012 traffic figures Cyber Monday Black Friday e best deals will actually be found online the week before Christmas, not on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. THANKSGIVING BLACK FRIDAY NOV 23 On Black Friday people will use their tablets and phones to shop more than any other day of the year. 24% MOBILE SHARE CYBER MONDAY NOV 26 Green Monday, the second Monday in December and also a high-grossing online shopping day, is predicted to outpace Green Monday 2011 by 7%. AVERAGE DAILY SALES GREEN MONDAY DEC 10 e biggest online shopping day of the year should see 18% YoY growth. 18 % GROWTH 1.5X FREE SHIPPING DAY DEC 17 Sales will grow on Free Shipping Day by 12% YoY particularly because it falls on a Monday for the first time. BUMP LAST-MINUTE SHOPPING CHRISTMAS EVE adobe.com/go/onlineshopping

Upload: ranouli

Post on 27-Apr-2015

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2012 Holiday Forecast Final

Expect record sales for the 2012 holiday season.Adobe predicts a record-se�ing $2-billion Cyber Monday, growing by 18% over 2011. Black Friday may fall from the second to the third largest online shopping day as Free Shipping Day occurs on a Monday for the �rst time, which tends to be the busiest online shopping day of the week. In addition, mobile will represent 21% of total online purchases this holiday, an increase of 110% over last year (13.5% from tablets, 6.5% from smartphones and 1% from other devices such as e-readers).

BLACK FRIDAYBlack Friday is expected to be the second largest online sales day of 2012 when retailers will see a sales increase of 12% YoY.

CYBER MONDAYBrick-and-Click retailers will see a 540% increase in revenue compared to an average day throughout the year while online-only retailers will see sales increase by 210%.

GREEN MONDAY�e typical retailer can expect to see a sales increase of nearly one and a half times comparedto an average day throughout the year.

FREE SHIPPING DAYPurchases for jewelry will double on this day as a popular last-minute gi� for procrastinating shoppers.

�e algorithms used to create the predictive analysis are based on more than 150 billion online visits to over 500 retail websites in the U.S. and Europe over the past six years. �e margin of error is two percent with a 90 percent con�dence level and the forecast’s methodology and degree of accuracy has been evaluated and veri�ed by b3Intelligence, an independent analytics and research service provider.

Adobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. © 2012 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Prediction line (Margin of error +/- 2% with 90% con�dence interval)

NOVEMBER 2012 DECEMBER 2012

2x

3x

4x

NORMAL DAILY ONLINE SALES

NEWYEAR’S

EVE

DOUBLECONVERSION RATE

150%SALES INCREASE

300%REVENUE INCREASE

12%SALES INCREASE

For both Brick-and-Click and Online-only retailers, Cyber Monday accounts for more sales than Black Friday.

64%

36%43%

57%

BRICK-AND-CLICKONLINE-ONLY INCREASE IN

MOBILE SALESMobile is expected to represent 21% of total online sales during the 2012 holiday season. Sales from mobile devices are projected toincrease 110% compared to last year, with sales from tablets constituting 13.5% of total sales, more than double that of smartphones (6.5%) and other devices such as e-readers (1%).

European consumers are expected to start holiday shopping sooner and �nish later than their U.S. counterparts. While online sales in the U.S. do not pick up signi�cantly until Black Friday, European retailers were seeing average daily sales increase by 150% the �rst week of November and will see a similar spike immediately following Christmas.

HOLIDAY SHOPPINGIN EUROPE

Social media referrals to retail websites this holiday season is projected to double compared to last year.

Out of these social referral sources, referrals from Pinterest is expected to grow the most, doubling from 7% to 14% YoY.

Visit the interactive graph for daily updates on the actual shopping activity during the season and get more details by retail category, type, and geography.

Holiday 2012 tra�c �gures

CyberMonday

BlackFriday

�e best deals will actually be found online the week before Christmas, not on Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

THANKSGIVING

BLACKFRIDAYNOV 23

On Black Friday people will use their tablets and phones to shop more than any other day of the year.

24% MOBILE SHARE

CYBER MONDAYNOV 26

Green Monday, the second Monday in December and also a high-grossing online shopping day, is predictedto outpace Green Monday 2011 by 7%.

AVERAGE DAILY SALES

GREEN MONDAYDEC 10

�e biggest online shopping day of the year should see 18% YoY growth.

18% GROWTH

1.5X

FREE SHIPPING DAYDEC 17

Sales will grow on Free Shipping Day by 12% YoY particularly because it falls on a Monday for the �rst time.

BUMPLAST-MINUTESHOPPING

CHRISTMAS EVE

adobe.com/go/onlineshopping