20110620 nrg fixed income weekly

15
Ukraine/Fixed Income June 20, 2011 Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review Key market data Trade Ideas Domesc bond market: we recommend to buy: a) government bonds with maturies in March and April 2014 at a yield of 10.10%; b) VAT bonds at a yield of 10.0%, as these securies offer the highest yield on the market. We ancipate yields to drop as the banking sector liquidity is restored to its ‘normal’ level. Eurobonds market: we recommend to pay aenon to the new issue Ukraine-16, which is trading at a premium to the sovereign curve of ap- proximately 37 basis points. We expect the spread to compress significantly and possibly disappear in the short-term. Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review Money Market Trends Banking system liquidity remained unchanged, while interest rates edged up. Banking sector liquidity remained on the same level, while interest rates rose following new reserve requirements for banks… pg. 2 Domesc Bond Market Overview The MoF refused to sell bonds at the primary aucon; the secondary market was flat. The MoF did not sell any OVGZs at the primary aucon on Tuesday, June 7th. Yields on the OVGZ secondary market were le unchanged… pg. 3 Ample cash balances should offset a rise in borrowing, further reducing yields. The government’s borrowing needs for the upcoming week will be relavely high (~ UAH 1.4 bn) yet ample cash balances should encourage the Treasury to test the market once again… pg. 4 Eurobond Market Overview Yields on Ukrainian Eurobonds trend upward; Ukrainian Eurobond pric- es fell significantly last week as fears over the possibility of Greece’s de- fault shook the market and reduced investors’ risk appete… pg. 6 Yuri Tovstenko [email protected] Dmytro Shevchenko [email protected] VAT-OVGZ yield dynamics 1w 1m Currency USD/UAH 7.99 0.00 0.00 EUR/UAH 11.35 -0.13 0.00 UAH NDF 1Y 8.55 0.00 -0.05 Money market KievPrime ON 2.50% 0.32% 0.46% KievPrime 3M 5.75% 0.29% 0.57% Accounts at NBU 16.0 -2.36 -1.08 NBU CDs 16.0 5.6 1.3 Yields Ukraine-13 4.81% 9 59 Ukraine-16 6.38% 22 41 Ukraine-21 7.35% 3 1 Ukreximbank-15 6.87% 17 29 MHP-15 8.10% 7 11 DTEK-15 7.30% 12 26 Metinvest-15 7.08% 26 61 OVGZ 3M 7.00% 32 80 OVGZ 6M 7.10% -30 0 OVGZ 9M 7.85% -8 30 VAT-OVGZ 10.15% 0 25 Last Close Change, % Source: Bloomberg, NBU, Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calculaons 9.0% 9.3% 9.6% 9.9% 10.2% 10.5% 10.8% 28-Apr 3-May 8-May 13-May 18-May 23-May 28-May 2-Jun 7-Jun 12-Jun 17-Jun Bid Ask

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Page 1: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

Ukraine/Fixed Income June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Key market data

Trade Ideas

Domes�c bond market: we recommend to buy: a) government bonds with

maturi�es in March and April 2014 at a yield of 10.10%; b) VAT bonds at a

yield of 10.0%, as these securi�es offer the highest yield on the market. We

an�cipate yields to drop as the banking sector liquidity is restored to its

‘normal’ level.

Eurobonds market: we recommend to pay a,en�on to the new issue

Ukraine-16, which is trading at a premium to the sovereign curve of ap-

proximately 37 basis points. We expect the spread to compress significantly

and possibly disappear in the short-term.

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Money Market Trends

• Banking system liquidity remained unchanged, while interest rates

edged up. Banking sector liquidity remained on the same level, while

interest rates rose following new reserve requirements for banks… pg. 2

Domes%c Bond Market Overview

• The MoF refused to sell bonds at the primary auc�on; the secondary

market was flat. The MoF did not sell any OVGZs at the primary auc�on

on Tuesday, June 7th. Yields on the OVGZ secondary market were le<

unchanged… pg. 3

• Ample cash balances should offset a rise in borrowing, further reducing

yields. The government’s borrowing needs for the upcoming week will be

rela�vely high (~ UAH 1.4 bn) yet ample cash balances should encourage

the Treasury to test the market once again… pg. 4

Eurobond Market Overview

• Yields on Ukrainian Eurobonds trend upward; Ukrainian Eurobond pric-

es fell significantly last week as fears over the possibility of Greece’s de-

fault shook the market and reduced investors’ risk appe�te… pg. 6

Yuri Tovstenko

[email protected]

Dmytro Shevchenko

[email protected]

VAT-OVGZ yield dynamics

1w 1m

Currency

USD/UAH 7.99 0.00 0.00

EUR/UAH 11.35 -0.13 0.00

UAH NDF 1Y 8.55 0.00 -0.05

Money market

KievPrime ON 2.50% 0.32% 0.46%

KievPrime 3M 5.75% 0.29% 0.57%

Accounts at NBU 16.0 -2.36 -1.08

NBU CDs 16.0 5.6 1.3

Yields

Ukraine-13 4.81% 9 59

Ukraine-16 6.38% 22 41

Ukraine-21 7.35% 3 1

Ukreximbank-15 6.87% 17 29

MHP-15 8.10% 7 11

DTEK-15 7.30% 12 26

Metinvest-15 7.08% 26 61

OVGZ 3M 7.00% 32 80

OVGZ 6M 7.10% -30 0

OVGZ 9M 7.85% -8 30

VAT-OVGZ 10.15% 0 25

Last CloseChange, %

Source: Bloomberg, NBU, Ministry of Finance

Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calcula�ons

9.0%

9.3%

9.6%

9.9%

10.2%

10.5%

10.8%

28

-Ap

r

3-M

ay

8-M

ay

13

-Ma

y

18

-Ma

y

23

-Ma

y

28

-Ma

y

2-J

un

7-J

un

12

-Ju

n

17

-Ju

n

Bid Ask

Page 2: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 2

Liquidity in the banking system remained stable, while interest rates

edged up.

The overall liquidity of the banking system (including the banks' holdings of

the NBU’s cer�ficates of deposit) stood at UAH 26-28 bn, nearly

unchanged compared to the previous week. At the same �me banks’

balances on correspondent accounts with the NBU declined to the level of

UAH 16.0-17.5 bn as the NBU issued cer�ficates of deposit in the total

amount of UAH 7.6 bn while redemp�ons remained at a low level.

As a result of the stabiliza�on of the banking sector liquidity at the level of

UAH 26-28 bn, the interbank interest rates halted their decline - in fact the

overnight interest rate increased slightly to 2.50% from 2.18% a week

earlier, while the weekly rate climbed up to 3.50% from 3.44% over the

same period.

We expect that a return of the baking sector liquidity to the levels of mid-

May (UAH 37-40 bn) may be prolonged. Last week, in a first step towards

restraining infla�onary pressures, the Na�onal Bank of Ukraine adopted a

resolu�on (№195), which calls for an increase in the banks’ reserve

requirements on foreign currency deposits. Effec�ve from July 1st the

reserve ra�o on demand deposits and current accounts will rise from 7%

to 8%. The reserve ra�o on short-term foreign currency deposits is set to

rise from 4% to 6%, whereas the reserve ra�o for long-term deposits will

decline to 2%. The new resolu�on restricts the amount of local

government bonds issued to finance the EURO 2012 infrastructure

projects that may be counted as part of reserves to 50% of the par value of

the government bonds.

Figure 1. Banking sector liquidity Figure 2. Money market rates, %

The overall level of liquidity in the bank-

ing system remained unchanged com-

pared to the previous week…

But interest rates on the interbank market

climbed up following an increase in the

reserve requirements for banks…

Money Markets Monitor

2686

1300

500300

601

1897

610747

530

1585

3 6 45

1283

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

17

-Ju

n

20

-Ju

n

21

-Ju

n

22

-Ju

n

23

-Ju

n

24

-Ju

n

29

-Ju

n

1-J

ul

8-J

ul

15

-Ju

l

22

-Ju

l

29

-Ju

l

5-A

ug

12

-Au

g

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

10

15

20

25

30

35

22-Mar 5-Apr 19-Apr 3-May 17-May 31-May 14-Jun

Banks' balances with Centr. Bank, UAH bn (LS) Kiev overnight (RS)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11

LIBOR USD 3M KievPrime 3M MosPrime USD 3M

Figure 3. NBU CDs redemp%on schedule, UAH mn

Source: Na�onal Bank of Ukraine, Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Na�onal Bank of Ukraine, NRG calcula�ons

Restora�on of the banking sector liquidity

to the levels of mid-May may be pro-

longed…

Page 3: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 3

Low demand from banks coupled with small government refinancing

needs once again led to a lack of placements of government bonds at the

primary auc%on on Tuesday, June 14th

.

The auc�on took place against the background of a low level of banking

sector liquidity which led to an extremely low volume of demand from

banks. On the day of the auc�on, banks’ balances on the correspondent

accounts with the NBU declined by 26.1% to UAH 16.0 bn, resul�ng in

rela�vely small demand volume of UAH 187.0 mn which is 80.6% lower

compared to the previous week.

The short-term 3-month and 9-month T-bills received zero bids owing to

the reluctance of banks to accept the current low of yields on these issues,

as well as due to the need for long-term sources of funds.

However, the yields at which banks were willing to buy 2-year and 5-year

government bonds were far above the levels seen acceptable by the

Ministry of Finance. A total of 2 bids were placed for a the 2-year issue for

mere UAH 25 mn with a yield of 9.0% and 9.30%, which the Treasury

rejected, not willing to sell these securi�es below the levels of the

previous auc�ons (9.0%).

The largest volume of demand (UAH 162 mn) was concentrated on 5-year

bonds with a preferred yield in the range of 11.30-12.50%, which the

Treasury also rejected.

Domestic Bond Monitor

Low demand and low government refi-

nancing needs lead to lackluster results

at the primary auc�on…

The Ministry of Finance con�nued, albeit

unsuccessfully, to push the market low-

er, as cash balances on the Treasury’s

account remain ample…

Figure 5. Primary auc%on weighted average yields, % Figure 4. State bonds auc%on results

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

Maturity, months22-Mar-11 17-May-11 24-May-11 7-Jun-11

Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calcula�ons Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calcula�ons

Figure 6. OVGZ redemp%on/issuance schedule, UAH mn

Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calcula�ons

ISIN short primary primary 119473 primary

Da ys to maturi ty 98 273 707 1813

Demand, UAH mn 0.0 0.0 25.0 162.0

Number of bids 0 0 2 5

Bids a ccepted 0 0 0 0

Highes t bid 0.00% 0.00% 9.30% 12.50%

Lowest bid 0.00% 0.00% 9.00% 11.30%

Cut-off yield 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Weighted a vg. yie ld 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Funds ra is ed, UAHmn 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

13-

19

May

20-

26

May

27

May

-2 J

un

e

3-9

Ju

n

10-

16

Ju

n

17-

23

Ju

n

24-

30

Ju

n

1-7

Ju

l

8-1

4 J

ul

8-1

4 J

ul

Issuance Redemption

Page 4: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 4

The volume of T-bills maturing next week is UAH 1.37 bn, which increases

the government’s refinancing needs and thus is expected to improve the

results of the auc�on. However, a recent new placement of Eurobonds in

the amount of ~UAH 10 bn and a significant amount of funds on the

Treasury’s Single Account (about UAH 17 bn) could further induce the

Ministry of Finance to lower interest rates at the primary auc�on.

Secondary market dynamics remain unchanged

The dynamics on the secondary market for government bonds remained

largely unchanged due to the stabiliza�on of the overall liquidity of the

banking system – yields did not move. It is worth no�ng only a marginal

increase of 3-5 bps in the yield on government bonds maturing in March-

April 2014 - these bonds are traded at a yield of about 10.3%. At the same

�me yields on the most liquid government issues (the VAT bonds)

remained at 10.15%

We an�cipate that the yields on government bonds in the secondary will

remain unchanged in the near future as the NBU’s new resolu�on designed

to withdraw excess liquidity from the market by raising reserve

requirements takes effect. Star�ng on July 1st, when the resolu�on comes

into force, banks will be forced to increase their required reserves which

should reduce their demand for government bonds and prevent interest

rates from declining. However, we expect interest rates on government

bonds to decline once the liquidity of the banking sector is restored to the

level of UAH 37-40 bn.

Figure 7. Government refinancing needs (debt repayment schedule), UAH mn

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Local debt External debt

* Repayment to be made within 7 days following the auc�on date stated above

The Ministry of Finance remains in a

good posi�on to force the yields lower...

We do not foresee interest rates declin-

ing significantly within the next two

weeks due to the increased reserve re-

quirements that should reduce excess

reserves…

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, NRG calcula�ons

Page 5: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 5

Figure 8. Primary auc%on results

* Repayment to be made within 7 days following the auc�on date stated above

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, NRG calcula�ons

ISIN DateMaturity

date

Days to

maturity

Volume of bids

submitted, UAH

Volume of bids

accepted, UAH

Total volume

of issue, UAH

Number of

bids

submitted

Number of

bids

accepted

Highest

bid

Lowest

bid

Cut-off

yield

Weighted

average yield

Funds raised,

UAH

UA4000111223 1-Mar-11 5/25/2011 84 30 000 000 0 30 000 000 1 0 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000110068 1-Mar-11 8/10/2011 161 250 000 000 225 000 000 415 000 000 3 2 7.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 218 504 250

Primary 1-Mar-11 2/29/2012 364 105 000 000 0 0 5 0 9.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000108823 1-Mar-11 1/29/2014 1064 1 263 000 000 300 000 000 1 330 000 000 14 1 12.5% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 303 357 000

UA4000114128 15-Mar-11 9/14/2011 182 730 000 000 550 000 000 550 000 000 14 9 7.3% 6.5% 6.7% 6.7% 532 280 600

UA4000114136 15-Mar-11 3/7/2012 357 1 040 000 000 1 000 000 000 1 000 000 000 29 27 9.0% 8.0% 8.7% 8.5% 923 895 550

UA4000108823 15-Mar-11 1/29/2014 1050 1 640 000 000 1 375 000 000 2 705 000 000 30 23 11.0% 10.7% 10.9% 10.7% 1 399 646 300

UA4000106181 15-Mar-11 7/13/2016 1946 645 000 000 480 000 000 680 000 000 6 2 12.5% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 492 000 000

UA4000114128 22-Mar-11 9/14/2011 175 110 000 000 60 000 000 610 000 000 3 2 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 58 132 800

UA4000114599 22-Mar-11 12/14/2011 266 295 000 000 225 000 000 225 000 000 12 10 8.3% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9% 212 731 950

UA4000107510 22-Mar-11 12/12/2012 630 808 000 000 287 000 000 947 180 000 25 7 10.0% 9.6% 9.9% 9.8% 294 799 830

UA4000107528 22-Mar-11 7/20/2016 1946 160 000 000 0 12 600 000 2 0 12.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000114128 29-Mar-11 9/14/2011 168 205 000 000 0 610 000 000 6 0 7.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000114136 29-Mar-11 3/7/2012 343 712 000 000 140 000 000 1 140 000 000 17 3 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 129 726 800

UA4000115117 29-Mar-11 3/26/2016 1092 730 000 000 100 000 000 100 000 000 19 1 11.0% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 100 000 000

Primary 29-Mar-11 3/16/2016 1813 40 000 000 0 0 2 0 13.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 5-Apr-11 7/6/2011 91 30 000 000 0 0 1 0 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000114599 5-Apr-11 12/14/2011 252 725 000 000 30 000 000 225 000 000 13 1 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 28 476 300

UA4000107510 5-Apr-11 12/12/2011 616 893 000 000 197 000 000 1 144 180 000 27 4 10.0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 203 705 880

UA4000116297 12-Apr-11 10/12/2011 182 300 000 000 100 000 000 100 000 000 6 1 7.3% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 96 861 000

UA4000114136 12-Apr-11 3/7/2012 329 1 020 000 000 300 000 000 1 440 000 000 23 8 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 279 990 000

UA4000115117 12-Apr-11 3/26/2014 1078 2 033 500 000 359 000 000 459 000 000 42 12 10.9% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 363 132 090

UA4000107528 12-Apr-11 7/20/2016 1925 35 000 000 0 12 600 000 2 0 12.5% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 19-Apr-11 7/20/2011 91 277 000 000 0 0 8 0 6.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000114599 19-Apr-11 12/14/2011 238 1 190 000 000 1 110 000 000 1 365 000 000 35 33 7.8% 6.9% 7.5% 7.4% 1 059 193 600

UA4000116974 19-Apr-11 4/17/2013 728 1 880 000 000 1 580 000 000 1 580 000 000 47 37 9.8% 8.9% 9.4% 9.2% 1 580 000 800

UA4000106181 19-Apr-11 7/13/2016 1911 720 000 000 0 680 000 000 20 0 9.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000116297 26-Apr-11 10/12/2011 168 255 000 000 140 000 000 240 000 000 5 2 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 135 933 000

Primary 26-Apr-11 4/25/2012 364 945 000 000 0 0 22 0 8.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000115117 26-Apr-11 3/26/2014 1064 1 196 000 000 1 066 000 000 1 525 000 000 32 29 11.0% 10.2% 10.5% 10.4% 1 084 094 420

UA4000110068 10-May-11 8/10/2011 91 350 000 000 0 415 000 000 4 0 5.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 10-May-11 8/2/2012 273 292 000 000 0 0 11 0 7.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000116974 10-May-11 4/17/2013 707 1 163 000 000 560 000 000 2 140 000 000 27 3 9.4% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 562 828 000

UA4000106181 10-May-11 7/13/2016 1890 740 000 000 0 680 000 000 8 0 9.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000116297 17-May-11 10/12/2011 147 200 000 000 30 000 000 270 000 000 5 2 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 29 292 300

Primary 17-May-11 5/16/2012 364 477 000 000 0 0 15 0 8.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000118871 17-May-11 4/30/2014 1078 1 516 500 000 1 046 500 000 1 046 500 000 44 21 10.7% 10.0% 10.2% 10.3% 1 050 489 540

Primary 17-May-11 5/4/2016 1813 840 000 000 0 0 9 0 12.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000110068 24-May-11 8/10/2011 77 20 000 000 20 000 000 435 000 000 1 1 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 19 801 600

Primary 24-May-11 2/15/2012 266 462 000 000 0 0 8 0 8.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000119473 24-May-11 5/22/2015 728 810 000 000 525 000 000 525 000 000 19 4 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 525 000 000

UA4000107528 24-May-11 7/20/2016 1883 20 000 000 0 12 600 000 2 0 12.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 31-May-11 11/30/2011 182 50 000 000 0 0 1 0 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 31-May-11 2/29/2012 273 92 000 000 0 0 5 0 9.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000119473 31-May-11 5/22/2013 721 341 300 000 0 525 000 000 4 0 12.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 7-Jun-11 12/7/2011 182 50 000 000 0 0 1 0 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000120794 7-Jun-11 6/6/2012 364 297 000 000 145 000 000 145 000 000 6 2 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 134 375 850

UA4000118871 7-Jun-11 4/30/2014 1057 617 000 000 347 000 000 1 393 500 000 16 7 10.5% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 350 570 630

Primary 14-Jun-11 9/21/2011 98 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 14-Jun-11 3/14/2012 273 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

UA4000119473 14-Jun-11 5/22/2013 707 25 000 000 0 525 000 000 2 0 9.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Primary 14-Jun-11 6/1/2016 1813 162 000 000 0 0 5 0 12.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0

Page 6: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 6

* Repayment to be made within 7 days following the auc�on date stated above

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, NRG calcula�ons

Figure 9. Local currency bonds

Source: Cbonds, NRG calcula�ons

Ukrtelecom, 2-L Globinskiy

myasokombinat, 1-A

Galychina, 1-D

Sberbank of Russia, Е

Prominvestbank, 1-B

Platinum Bank, 2-A

Akta Bank, 1-А

Bus iness Standard Bank,

1-C

Hreschatyk, 1-H

Megabank, 1-G

Credit Dnepr, 1-F

Oschadbank, 1-B

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

OVGZ yield curve

VAT-bonds

Figure 10. Local currency bonds yield map

ISIN Issuer Rating Exchange listing Maturity Put option YTM (Mid)

Mod.

duration,

years

Months

to

maturity

Issue

volume,

UAH mn

UA4000076780 Ministry of Finance 7/27/2011 6.7% 0.1 1.2

UA4000110068 Ministry of Finance 8/10/2011 6.7% 0.1 1.6

UA3B00022509 Ministry of Finance 9/28/2011 7.0% 0.3 3.3

UA4000062012 Ministry of Finance 11/23/2011 7.1% 0.4 5.1

UA4000048219 Ministry of Finance 2/22/2012 7.8% 0.6 8.2

UA4000064893 Ministry of Finance 3/21/2012 7.9% 0.7 9.1

UA4000053912 Ministry of Finance 4/11/2012 7.8% 0.7 9.8

UA4000101018 Ministry of Finance 6/13/2012 8.1% 0.9 11.9

UA4000063564 Ministry of Finance 9/12/2012 8.8% 1.1 14.9

UA4000061451 Ministry of Finance 10/31/2012 8.9% 1.2 16.6

UA4000063192 Ministry of Finance 12/5/2012 9.1% 1.3 17.7

UA4000107510 Ministry of Finance 12/12/2012 9.1% 1.3 18.0

UA4000064018 Ministry of Finance 2/20/2013 9.2% 1.4 20.3

UA4000065429 Ministry of Finance 3/27/2013 9.2% 1.5 21.5

UA4000116974 Ministry of Finance 4/17/2013 9.4% 1.6 22.2

UA4000108823 Ministry of Finance 1/29/2014 10.2% 2.1 31.7

UA4000118871 Ministry of Finance 4/30/2014 10.3% 2.4 34.8

UA4000082531 (VAT-2) Ministry of Finance 8/21/2015 10.2% 1.9 50.7

UA4000082622 (VAT-3) Ministry of Finance 8/24/2015 10.2% 1.9 50.8

UA4000083059 (VAT-4) Ministry of Finance 8/25/2015 10.2% 1.9 50.8

UA4000110613 Ukrtelecom, 2-L uaA (Credit Rating) UX:2 2/14/2012 - 14.0% 0.6 7.9 250

UA4000026173 Globinskiy myas., 1-A uaA/ (Credit Rating) PFTS: 2 / UX: 0 12/5/2012 12/7/2011 13.5% 1.3 17.7 50

UA4000075857 Galychina, 1-D uaBB/( Credit Rating) PFTS: 2 7/23/2013 7/26/2011 16.0% 1.7 25.4 45

UA4000111462 Hlebprom, 1-E In progress 2/23/2016 2/28/2012 15.0% 3.2 56.9 50

UA4000019657 Hreschatyk, 1-F BBB-(ukr) (Fitch) PFTS: 2 / UX: 0 9/24/2012 9/26/2011 11.5% 1.1 15.3 100

UA4000105852 Sberbank of Russia, Е Aa1.ua (Moody’s) UX: 0 1/18/2013 - 11.7% 1.4 19.2 750

UA4000019681 Hreschatyk, 1-G BBB-(ukr) (Fitch) PFTS: 0 / UX: 0 1/24/2013 10/27/2011 11.5% 1.4 19.4 140

UA4000029490 Oschadbank, 1-B Aa1.ua (Moody’s) PFTS: 2 / UX: 0 2/7/2013 - 10.5% 1.4 19.9 200

UA4000107239 Prominvestbank, 1-B Aa1.ua (Moody’s) PFTS: 2 2/25/2013 - 12.0% 1.5 20.5 500

UA4000029425 Alfa Bank, 1-H Baa3.ua (Moody’s) PFTS: 0 3/14/2013 3/15/2012 12.0% 1.5 21.0 195

UA4000019699 Hreschatyk, 1-H BBB-(ukr) (Fitch) PFTS: 0 / UX: 0 5/25/2013 11/26/2011 11.5% 1.6 23.4 200

UA4000091805 Platinum Bank, 2-A uaA (Credit Rating) PFTS: 0 / UX: 2 11/4/2013 5/7/2012 13.0% 1.9 28.9 100

UA4000095525 Akta Bank, 1-А uaBBB+ (РюК) PFTS: 2 12/9/2013 12/12/2011 15.0% 2.0 30.0 30

UA4000088462 Business Standard uaBBB- (Credit Rating) PFTS: 2 9/24/2015 9/29/2011 12.0% 3.0 51.8 100

UA4000109425 Credit Dnepr, 1-F Baa3.ua (Moody’s) PFTS: 0 1/22/2016 1/26/2012 13.5% 3.1 55.8 100

UA4000104053 Megabank, 1-G uaA- (Credit Rating) UX: 2 2/8/2016 2/7/2012 14.0% 3.3 56.4 50

UA4000114433 Business Standard In progress PFTS: 0 3/17/2016 3/22/2012 15.5% 3.2 57.7 100

Page 7: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 7

Figure 11. Outstanding local government bonds

Source: Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, NRG calcula�ons

ISIN Volume of issue Type of bonds Maturity date CouponCoupon

frequency

UA4000086300 655 000 000 Zero-coupon 22-Jun-11 0.00% -

UA4000105423 1 350 000 000 Zero-coupon 13-Jul -11 0.00% -

UA4000076780 2 809 500 000 Zero-coupon 27-Jul -11 0.00% -

UA4000110068 415 000 000 Zero-coupon 10-Aug-11 0.00% -

UA4000083075 956 500 000 Zero-coupon 31-Aug-11 0.00% -

UA4000064802 800 000 000 Coupon 14-Sep-11 11.00% 2

UA4000114128 610 000 000 Zero-coupon 14-Sep-11 0.00% -

UA3B00022509 4 502 000 000 Coupon 28-Sep-11 9.50% 4

UA4000061089 381 775 000 Coupon 12-Oct-11 25.14% 2

UA4000116297 100 000 000 Zero-coupon 12-Oct-11 0.00% -

UA4000107502 1 460 000 000 Zero-coupon 26-Oct-11 0.00% -

UA4000062012 1 390 800 000 Coupon 23-Nov-11 20.00% 2

UA4000114599 225 000 000 Zero-coupon 14-Dec-11 0.00% -

UA4000048219 2 904 000 000 Coupon 22-Feb-12 15.60% 2

UA4000114136 1 140 000 000 Zero-coupon 7-Mar-12 0.00% -

UA4000064810 800 000 000 Coupon 14-Mar-12 11.00% 2

UA4000064893 1 858 088 000 Coupon 21-Mar-12 13.00% 2

UA4000053920 700 000 000 Coupon 4-Apr-12 15.70% 2

UA4000053912 1 390 880 000 Coupon 11-Apr-12 15.70% 2

UA4000120794 145 000 000 Zero-coupon 6-Jun-12 0.00% -

UA4000101018 1 000 000 000 Coupon 13-Jun-12 10.00% 2

UA4000063564 2 201 170 000 Coupon 12-Sep-12 20.00% 2

UA4000060883 1 169 840 000 Coupon 26-Sep-12 20.00% 2

UA4000063184 1 598 269 000 Coupon 17-Oct-12 9.95% 2

UA4000061451 1 417 840 000 Coupon 31-Oct-12 20.00% 2

UA4000063192 1 598 270 000 Coupon 5-Dec-12 9.95% 2

UA4000107510 947 180 000 Coupon 12-Dec-12 9.86% 2

UA4000103063 1 000 000 000 Coupon 19-Dec-12 10.10% 2

UA4000064018 971 000 000 Coupon 20-Feb-13 20.00% 2

UA4000065221 1 404 280 000 Coupon 20-Mar-13 15.00% 2

UA4000065429 334 900 000 Coupon 27-Mar-13 14.50% 2

UA4000116974 1 580 000 000 Coupon 17-Apr-13 9.24% 2

UA4000119473 525 000 000 Coupon 22-May-13 9.00% 2

UA4000066195 1 007 000 000 Coupon 17-Jul -13 13.00% 2

UA4000081202 949 500 000 Coupon 7-Aug-13 12.00% 2

UA4000066880 1 403 165 000 Coupon 4-Sep-13 12.50% 2

UA4000079891 76 000 000 Coupon 25-Sep-13 12.00% 2

UA4000048508 745 002 000 Coupon 23-Oct-13 12.00% 2

UA4000048391 415 001 000 Coupon 6-Nov-13 12.00% 2

UA4000108823 2 705 000 000 Coupon 29-Jan-14 10.97% 2

UA4000115117 100 000 000 Coupon 26-Mar-14 10.75% 2

UA4000118871 1 046 500 000 Coupon 30-Apr-14 10.13% 2

UA4000051403 1 000 000 000 Coupon 14-May-14 15.60% 2

UA4000063200 1 598 269 000 Coupon 11-Jun-14 9.75% 2

UA4000063218 1 598 270 000 Coupon 12-Nov-14 9.75% 2

UA4000063226 1 598 270 000 Coupon 17-Dec-14 9.75% 2

UA4000064026 1 000 000 Coupon 21-Jan-15 18.50% 2

UA4000064166 451 875 000 Coupon 28-Jan-15 15.00% 2

UA4000092100 500 000 000 Coupon 18-Mar-15 9.50% 2

UA4000078141 48 453 000 Coupon 27-Jul -15 5.50% 2

UA4000082531 2 047 815 000 Coupon 21-Aug-15 5.50% 2

UA4000082622 8 304 873 000 Coupon 24-Aug-15 5.50% 2

UA4000083059 6 041 548 000 Coupon 25-Aug-15 5.50% 2

Page 8: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 8

Figure 11. Outstanding local government bonds (con%nued)

Source: Ministry of Finance, NRG calcula�ons

ISIN Volume of issue Type of bonds Maturity date CouponCoupon

frequency

UA4000048789 2 000 000 000 Coupon 18-Nov-15 9.50% 2

UA4000050090 4 000 000 000 Coupon 16-Dec-15 9.50% 2

UA4000092118 1 500 000 000 Coupon 17-Feb-16 9.50% 2

UA4000050199 3 885 000 000 Coupon 13-Apr-16 9.50% 2

UA4000050017 3 700 000 000 Coupon 15-Jun-16 9.50% 2

UA4000092126 1 500 000 000 Coupon 29-Jun-16 9.50% 2

UA4000092134 1 500 000 000 Coupon 13-Jul -16 9.50% 2

UA4000106181 680 000 000 Coupon 13-Jul -16 9.50% 4

UA4000107528 12 600 000 Coupon 20-Jul -16 12.50% 4

UA4000050207 3 885 000 000 Coupon 14-Sep-16 9.50% 2

UA4000092142 1 200 000 000 Coupon 12-Apr-17 9.50% 2

UA4000057111 1 033 333 000 Coupon 31-May-17 9.50% 2

UA4000057277 1 188 431 000 Coupon 7-Jun-17 9.50% 2

UA4000057301 936 171 000 Coupon 14-Jun-17 9.50% 2

UA4000058606 3 100 000 000 Coupon 19-Jul -17 9.50% 2

UA4000092167 1 200 000 000 Coupon 23-Aug-17 9.50% 2

UA4000058614 1 658 263 000 Coupon 4-Oct-17 9.50% 2

UA4000061790 1 400 000 000 Coupon 28-Mar-18 9.50% 2

UA4000055586 1 000 000 000 Coupon 9-May-18 9.50% 2

UA4000057319 936 172 000 Coupon 30-May-18 9.50% 2

UA4000057129 1 033 333 000 Coupon 6-Jun-18 9.50% 2

UA4000057285 1 188 431 000 Coupon 13-Jun-18 9.50% 2

UA4000058622 3 100 000 000 Coupon 18-Jul -18 9.50% 2

UA4000062525 650 000 000 Coupon 12-Sep-18 9.50% 2

UA4000058630 1 355 345 000 Coupon 3-Oct-18 9.50% 2

UA4000059323 1 000 000 000 Coupon 31-Oct-18 9.50% 2

UA4000059353 1 000 000 000 Coupon 31-Oct-18 9.50% 2

UA4000064307 1 000 000 000 Coupon 21-Nov-18 9.50% 2

UA4000061808 1 400 000 000 Coupon 6-Feb-19 9.50% 2

UA4000064315 1 294 999 000 Coupon 13-Mar-19 9.50% 2

UA4000058648 1 933 060 000 Coupon 3-Apr-19 9.50% 2

UA4000057293 1 188 432 000 Coupon 29-May-19 9.50% 2

UA4000057327 936 172 000 Coupon 5-Jun-19 9.50% 2

UA4000057137 1 033 334 000 Coupon 12-Jun-19 9.50% 2

UA4000058655 3 100 000 000 Coupon 17-Jul -19 9.50% 2

UA4000064323 1 000 000 000 Coupon 17-Jul -19 9.50% 2

UA4000063119 1 276 191 000 Coupon 21-Aug-19 9.50% 2

UA4000064349 1 295 000 000 Coupon 25-Sep-19 9.50% 2

UA4000064117 900 000 000 Coupon 16-Oct-19 9.50% 2

UA4000064125 900 000 000 Coupon 20-Nov-19 9.50% 2

UA4000063010 950 000 000 Coupon 11-Mar-20 9.50% 2

UA4000061816 1 400 000 000 Coupon 15-Apr-20 9.50% 2

UA4000063127 1 500 000 000 Coupon 17-Jun-20 9.50% 2

UA4000063028 949 981 000 Coupon 12-Aug-20 9.50% 2

UA4000061824 1 400 000 000 Coupon 4-Nov-20 9.50% 2

UA4000063135 1 500 000 000 Coupon 9-Jun-21 9.50% 2

UA4000063143 1 500 000 000 Coupon 1-Jun-22 9.50% 2

Page 9: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review 9

Ukrainian Eurobonds came under pressure last week as fears over a

fallout from the Greek debt crisis weighed on the bond markets.

Uncertainty over the resolu�on of the debt crisis in Greece once again

stoked fears of an increasingly probable default and con�nued to weigh on

bond markets, taking a toll on Ukrainian Eurobonds. As a result, the 5-year

CDS rates on Ukraine rose by 2.4 basis points to 460.4 bps, while the yield

on Ukraine-12 rose by 28 basis points to 3.84%, the YTM on Ukraine-17

increased by 24 basis points to 6.65%, and yield on Ukraine-16 climbed by

22 bps to .

The new issue Ukraine-16 (2) is now trading at 99.5% of par with a yield of

6.37%. The rise in yield was primarily due to the nega�ve dynamics of the

market, and we see a poten�al for price apprecia�on with a reduc�on of

vola�lity on the world bond markets.

The yield on issues of the corporate segment followed the sovereigns. The

week’s worst performers Vanguard-15 (yield rose by 32 bps to 10.45%);

Ferrexpo-16 (yield increased by 32 bps to 7.33%, and Me�nvest-15 (YTM

rose by 26 basis points to 8.7%) .

Last week, the city of Kiev began a road show of Eurobonds for a total

amount of USD 300 mn. Kiev authori�es intend to raise funds at 7.8% for a

5-year tenor. A large part of the proceeds of the issue (USD 200 mn) will

be spent on the repayment of the maturing loan, while the remaining

funds (USD 100 mn) will be directed towards financing of socio-economic

Eurobonds Monitor

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

Ukrexim-16

FUIB-14

Kiev-12

MHP-11

Kiev-11

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

F&C-14

VAB-14

Avangard-15

Ferrexpo-16

Ukraine-12

Figure 12. Top and BoFom Performers, YTM

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11

Ukraine Russia KazakhstanItaly Argentina Greece

Figure 13. 5Y CDS Dynamics

Greek debt crisis con�nues to ba9er the

markets…

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11

Ukraine-12 Ukraine-15 Ukraine-17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11

Kyiv-12 Alfa Bank-12 MHP-15 Ukreximbank-16

Figure 14. YTM of Ukrainian Sovereign Eurobonds, % Figure 15. YTM of Ukrainian non-sovereign Eurobonds, %

Source: Bloomberg, NRG Calcula�ons Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Page 10: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

development programs in Kiev. The City of Kiev is scheduled to repay a

maturing Eurobond in the total amount of USD 200 mn, issued in 2004 at

8.625% per annum. Fitch Ra�ngs agency assigned the upcoming bond

issue a long-term foreign currency ra�ng "B-(exp)", while Moody's

assigned "B2" / forecast "Stable".

Figure 16. Ukrainian Eurobonds weekly dynamics

Source: Bloomberg, NRG Calcula�ons

Ukraine-12

Ukraine-13

Ukraine-15

Ukraine-16

Ukraine-17

Ukraine-20Ukraine-21

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

YTM

, %

Modified duration, years

Page 11: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Figure 17. Ukrainian Eurobonds yield map

Source: Bloomberg, NRG Calcula�ons

Ukraine-15**

Ukrinf-17

Ukraine-15

Ukraine-12

Ukraine-13

Ukraine-16

Ukraine-16-2

Ukraine-17

Ukraine-21

Ukraine-20

Ukreximbank-11

Ukreximbank-12

Ukreximbank-15

Ukreximbank-16Oschadbank-16

Ukrsibbank-11

Ukrsibbank-11

Privatbank-12

Privatbank-15

Privatbank-16Alfa Bank-12

F&C-14

FUIB-14

VAB-14

MHP-11

Metinvest-18

MHP-15

Avangard-15

Metinvest-15DTEK-15

Mriya-16

Ferrexpo-16

Interpipe-17

Naftogaz-14

Kiev-11

Kiev-12

Kiev-15

Ukrinf-18

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

YT

M,

%

Modified duration, years

Page 12: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Figure 18. Ukrainian Eurobonds

Issue Rating

Mod.

duration,

years

ISINVolume,

USD mlnCoupon* Maturity Price (Bid) Price (Ask) Price (Mid) YTM (Bid) YTM (Ask) YTM (Mid)

Spread to

sovereign

curve, bps

Δ spread,

bps

Fair spread,

bps

Ukraine-12 B2/B+/B 0.9 XS0305394941 500 6.39% 6/26/2012 102.0 103.0 102.5 4.3% 3.39% 3.8% -39 -39 0

Ukraine-13 B2/B+/B 1.8 XS0170177306 1000 7.65% 6/11/2013 105.1 105.4 105.3 4.9% 4.73% 4.8% 16 16 0

Ukraine-15** B2/B+/B 3.7 XS0232329879 600 4.95% 10/13/2015 92.3 92.7 92.3 7.1% 6.96% 7.1% 138 113 25

Ukraine-15 B2/B+/B 3.6 XS0543783434 500 6.88% 9/23/2015 102.9 103.7 103.3 6.1% 5.87% 6.0% 36 36 0

Ukraine-16 B2/B+/B 4.5 XS0276053112 1000 6.58% 11/21/2016 100.7 101.1 100.9 6.4% 6.34% 6.4% 20 20 0

Ukraine-16-2 B2/B+/B 4.2 XS0638552942 1250 6.25% 6/17/2016 99.1 99.9 99.5 6.5% 6.28% 6.4% 36 36 0

Ukraine-17 B2/B+/B 5.1 XS0330776617 700 6.75% 11/14/2017 100.1 100.9 100.5 6.7% 6.57% 6.6% 5 5 0

Ukraine-20 B2/B+/B 6.5 XS0543783194 1500 7.75% 9/23/2020 103.1 103.8 103.5 7.3% 7.17% 7.2% -41 -41 0

Ukraine-21 B2/B+/B 6.5 XS0594390816 1500 7.95% 1/23/2021 103.7 104.4 104.1 7.4% 7.30% 7.4% -31 -31 0

Kiev-11 B2/CCC+/B- 0.1 XS0197093965 200 8.63% 7/15/2011 100.0 100.8 100.4 7.7% -4.22% 1.7% -215 -365 150

Kiev-12 B2/CCC+/B- 1.3 XS0332748077 250 8.25% 11/26/2012 101.1 102.6 101.9 7.4% 6.29% 6.9% 244 44 200

Kiev-15 B2/CCC+/B- 3.6 XS0233620235 250 8.00% 11/6/2015 97.0 99.1 98.1 8.8% 8.24% 8.5% 293 68 225

Ukreximbank-11 B1/NR/B 0.2 XS0267147881 500 7.65% 9/7/2011 100.5 101.0 100.8 4.9% 2.84% 3.9% -4 -54 50

Ukreximbank-12 B1/NR/B 1.2 XS0230955642 250 6.80% 10/4/2012 101.9 102.5 102.2 5.3% 4.78% 5.0% 67 -8 75

Ukreximbank-15 B1/NR/B 3.2 XS0503737461 500 8.38% 4/27/2015 104.7 105.3 105.0 6.9% 6.80% 6.9% 147 72 75

Ukreximbank-16 B1/NR/CCC 3.7 XS0243733127 125 8.40% 2/9/2016 92.6 93.5 93.0 7.7% 7.48% 7.6% 192 67 125

Oschadbank-16 B2/NR/B 3.8 XS0594294695 500 8.25% 3/10/2016 101.7 102.3 102.0 7.8% 7.64% 7.7% 200 100 100

Naftogaz-14 NR/NR/B 2.8 XS045920712 1595 9.50% 9/30/2014 109.4 109.9 109.6 6.3% 6.12% 6.2% 105 80 25

Ukrinf-17 B2/NR/NR 4.9 XS0556327822 568 8.38% 11/3/2017 104.3 105.6 104.9 7.5% 7.26% 7.4% 95 70 25

Ukrinf-18 B2/NR/NR 5.2 XS0619856460 690 7.40% 4/20/2018 98.6 99.1 98.8 7.7% 7.57% 7.6% 94 69 25

Ukrsibbank-11 B1/NR/B 0.1 XS0377629547 250 9.25% 8/4/2011 100.6 101.0 100.8 4.3% 0.7% 2.5% -137 -187 50

Ukrsibbank-11 B1/NR/B 0.5 XS0278743710 500 7.75% 12/21/2011 101.5 102.1 101.8 4.6% 3.4% 4.0% -3 -53 50

Privatbank-12 B1/NR/B 0.6 XS0285182266 500 8.00% 2/6/2012 100.9 101.4 101.2 6.5% 5.7% 6.1% 198 98 100

Privatbank-15 B1/NR/B 3.4 XS0543744535 200 9.38% 9/23/2015 103.0 103.6 103.3 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 293 168 125

Privatbank-16 B1/NR/NR 3.6 XS0242939394 150 8.75% 2/9/2016 86.8 88.2 87.5 9.4% 9.0% 9.2% 354 154 200

Alfa Bank Ukraine-12*** NR/B-/NR 1.0 XS0441089926 841 13.00% 7/30/2012 103.9 104.4 104.1 9.2% 8.77% 9.0% 474 274 200

Finance & Credit-14 Caa1/NR/NR 2.1 XS0275465879 100 10.50% 1/25/2014 89.5 91.9 90.7 15.6% 14.3% 14.9% 1016 366 650

FUIB-14*** B2/NR/NR 2.8 XS0287015787 275 11.00% 12/31/2014 104.6 105.4 105.0 9.4% 9.2% 9.3% 412 62 350

VAB-14 Caa1/NR/WD 2.4 XS0303241615 125 10.50% 6/14/2014 85.0 89.0 87.0 17.0% 15.15% 16.1% 1114 414 700

MHP-11 B3/NR/B 0.4 USL6366MAA10 250 10.25% 11/30/2011 102.4 103.3 102.8 4.7% 2.7% 3.7% -29 -154 125

MHP-15 B3/NR/B 3.1 USL6366MAB92 585 10.25% 4/29/2015 106.7 107.3 107.0 8.2% 8.0% 8.1% 275 125 150

Avangard-15 NR/NR/B 3.4 XS0553088708 200 10.00% 10/29/2015 98.0 98.9 98.4 10.6% 10.3% 10.4% 494 94 400

Mriya-16 NR/B/B- 3.6 XS0559140875 250 10.95% 3/30/2016 101.1 101.7 101.4 10.6% 10.5% 10.6% 496 46 450

Interpipe-17 NR/NR/NR 4.1 XS0310283709 200 10.25% 8/2/2017 88.0 91.2 89.6 13.2% 12.3% 12.8% 679 179 500

DTEK-15 B2/NR/B 3.2 USN2800PAA59 500 9.50% 4/28/2015 106.9 107.6 107.3 7.4% 7.2% 7.3% 192 92 100

Metinvest-15 B2/NR/B 3.2 XS0511379066 500 10.25% 5/20/2015 110.3 111.0 110.7 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 168 68 100

Metinvest-18 B2/NR/B 4.9 XS0591549232 750 8.75% 2/14/2018 104.5 105.1 104.8 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 136 36 100

Ferrexpo-16 B3/B+/B 3.9 XS0614325586 500 7.88% 4/7/2016 101.8 102.5 102.2 7.4% 7.24% 7.3% 153 53 100

*S/A Coupon **The issue is EUR nominated with annual coupon ***Quarter coupon; **** the issue is UAH-denominated

Source: Bloomberg, NRG calcula�ons

Page 13: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Figure 19. Credit metrics of Ukrainian companies

Figure 20. EBITDA margins

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

MHP Mriya Avangard Metinvest Ferrexpo DTEK Naftogaz

EBITDA margin, %

Figure 21. Leverage ra%os

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

MHP Mriya Avangard Metinvest Ferrexpo DTEK Naftogaz

Net debt/EBITDA (x)

Figure 22. Interest coverage

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

MHP Mriya Avangard Metinvest Ferrexpo DTEK Naftogaz

EBITDA/ Int.exp.

Issuer Ticker Sector Filing Revenues EBITDAEBITDA

margin, %

ST Debt/

LT debt

(x)

Net debtNet debt/

EBITDA (x)

EBITDA/

Int.exp.

Debt/

equity

(x)

Current

ratio

MHP MHPSA Agriculture 1Q2011 991.0 332.0 33.5 0.3 713.6 2.1 5.5 1.2 2.8

Mriya Agro Holding MRIYA Agriculture 1Q2011 310.0 179.0 57.7 2.5 67.5 0.1 6.2 0.9 3.5

Avangard AVINPU Consumer goods 4Q2010 439.7 167.4 38.1 0.2 103.9 0.6 7.1 0.3 5.9

Metinvest METINV Metals 3Q2010 8 443.0 2 028.0 24.0 0.5 2 298.0 1.1 17.5 n.a. n.a.

Ferrexpo FXPOLN Metals 4Q2010 1 294.9 579.8 44.8 0.1 104.4 0.2 22.8 0.7 3.5

DTEK DTEKUA Coal 4Q2010 3 057.9 730.9 23.9 0.3 553.9 0.8 12.7 0.8 0.5

Naftogaz of Ukraine NAFTO Oil & Gas 4Q2009 8 157.0 -1 112.2 neg. 2.1 5 026.1 Neg. Neg. 2.7 2.9

Notes: Data in the table is are based on LTM (Last 12 months); Int.exp. - interest expense; ST - Short-term; LT - Long-term

Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, NRG calculations

Figure 21. Debt-to-equity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

MHP Mriya Avangard Metinvest Ferrexpo DTEK Naftogaz

Debt/Equity (x)

Page 14: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Average dura%on- dura�on calculated from all cash-flows obtained from

the bonds sold at the auc�on. Yield-to-maturity, price and each cash-flow

(coupons and principal) are calculated on a per-bond basis.

Average yield – A yield-to-maturity calculated from all cash-flows ob-

tained from the bonds sold at the auc�on and versus the total price paid

per bond to acquire them. Price and each cash flow (coupons and princi-

pal) are calculated on a per-bond basis.

Basis point (bp) – One-hundredth of a percentage point or 0.01%.

BoP – Balance of Payments.

Cer%ficate(s) of Deposit (CD(s) – Short-term money market instruments

that allow the NBU to absorb the extra liquidity from the local banks.

CDS - A swap designed to transfer the credit exposure of bonds

(sovereign, corporate or municipal) between par�es.

CRA – Credit ra�ng agency. This term can refer to interna�onal compa-

nies as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch as well as na�onal compa-

nies – Credit-Ra�ng Ukraine and others.

KievPrime rate - An independent reference rate calculated daily by Reu-

ters based on offered inter-bank deposit rates in UAH as quoted by lead-

ing par�cipants in the Ukrainian money market. KievPrime is calculated

for overnight, one week, 1-, 2- and 3-month tenors, which are provided

by the contributor banks daily at 12pm.

MoE - Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine.

MoF – Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.

NBU – Na�onal Bank of Ukraine, the central bank of Ukraine.

OVGZ – Local-currency government bond.

Percentage point (ppt) – One percent, 1%.

Recapitaliza%on bonds – Local currency government bonds, which was

issued with the purpose of recapitalizing companies, owned by the state

(for example, Na<ogaz, Ukreximbank, Oschadbank).

UAH –The hryvnia, Ukrainian na�onal currency.

UAS – Ukrainian accoun�ng standards.

VAT OVGZ – Local currency bond, which was issued in order to repay the

government’s accumulated arrears on VAT (value added tax) refunds to

domes�c exporters.

YTM (yield-to-maturity) – The rate of return that creates the present

value of cash flows obtained from holding a bond equal to the price of

bond.

Glossary

Page 15: 20110620 NRG Fixed Income Weekly

June 20, 2011

Ukrainian Bonds: Weekly Review

Contact Informa%on

Kiev

4 Muzeiny Pereulok, 6th

Floor

Kiev, Ukraine 001001

Phone: +38-044-591-1515

Fax: +38-044-591-1293

[email protected]

www.nrg-capital.com.ua

New York

1450 Broadway, 39th floor

New York, NY 10018

Phone: +1-212-461-32-72

Michail Levchenko [email protected]

CEO

Vadim Bilokon [email protected]

Execu�ve Director

Sales & Trading +38-044-591-1291 Research [email protected]

Yasha Raphael [email protected]

Head of Interna�onal Sales

Alex Bart [email protected]

Interna�onal Sales

__________________________________________________

Sergei Lyunenko [email protected]

Head of Sales and Trading

Alexey Dyachenko [email protected]

Equity Trader

Evgeniy Petrishchenko [email protected]

Equity Trader

Oleksandr Vorobey [email protected]

Fixed Income Trader

Yuri Tovstenko [email protected]

Fixed Income Trader

Anna Pavlova [email protected]

Local Sales

Maksim Shtepa [email protected]

Head of Research, Strategy, Machinery

Yaroslav Udovenko [email protected]

Agriculture & Consumer goods

Dmytro Shevchenko [email protected]

Fixed income, Economy, Banks

Evgenia Radomska [email protected]

U�li�es, Oil & Gas, Telecommunica�ons

Konstan�n Meselevskiy [email protected]

Metals & Mining

Olena Stra�y o.stra�[email protected]

Research assistant