2008 elections & beyond ike gittlen technician, bsic usw district 1 women of steel conference...
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2008 Elections & Beyond
Ike GittlenTechnician, BSIC
USW District 1 Women of Steel ConferenceCincinnati, OH – November 10,2008
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 2
Leo’s Strategy
• Build the Capacity• Win the Election• Legislative and
Administrative Change
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 3
Unprecedented Union Effort
• AFL-CIO Unions…• 70 Million Phone Calls Made• 57 Million Union Pieces Mailed• 27 Million Workplace Flyers Distributed• 10 Million Doors Knocked On• 250,000 Volunteers in last 4 Days
Source: aflcio.org
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 4
Unprecedented Member Outreach
• 80% of AFL-CIO Members got Mail• 80% of AFL-CIO Members got a Publication• 59% of AFL-CIO Members got a Live Phone call• 32% of AFL-CIO Members got a Worksite Flyer
Source: aflcio.org
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 5
USW Effort
• 100,000 Member Contacts• 5 Million Pieces of Literature• 500 Full Time People on the Election• 11,000 Volunteers• 31 States
Source: usw.org
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 6
Ohio Effort
• 1000 Volunteers• 3000 Shifts of Work• 600,000 Worksite Leaflets
• Ohio led the Nation on this• 32,000 USW Members and Families
requested Absentee Ballots• An astonishing number
Source: USW Political Department
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 7
Decisive Election• President:
Barack Obama
• 53% - Popular vote (65,340,608 votes)
• 364 - Electoral Votes (163 for JM)
• Senate: (100 Total)
• 57 D’s (+6) – 40 R’s (3 Undecided Races)
• House: (435 Total)
• 255 D’s (+19) – 174 R’s (6 Undecided Races)
Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 8
Member Work Paid Off
• 21% of Overall Vote was from Union Households• 67% of Union Households Voted for Barak Obama
• 69% In Top Tier Battleground States• Compared to 51% of Non-Union Households
• Union Voters gave 25% more Votes to Barack Obama
Source: aflcio.org
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 9
Who Voted for ObamaObama (%) McCain (%)
Blacks 99 1
Postgraduates 64 36
Union Households 63 37
18 to 29 Year Olds 61 39
Seldom/Never Attend Church 61 39
Women 56 44
50 to 64 Year Olds 54 46
30 to 49 Year Olds 53 47
Catholics 53 47
Note: Unmarried Women voted for Obama by 70% to 29%. A 44% difference occurred between the voting performance of unmarried women and married women.
Source:Gallup Polling
Source:greenberg quinlan rosner research
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 10
Who Voted for McCain
McCain (%) Obama (%)Attend Church Weekly 56 44
Non-Hispanic Whites 56 44
65 Years and Older 54 46
Protestants 53 47
Men 51 49
Source:Gallup Polling
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 11
The Union Difference
Obama Votes Union % Non-Union %
White Men +18 -16
Gun Owners +12 -25
Veterans +25 -9
Source:Daily Labor Report 11/6/08
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 12
Election Notes
• Obama outperformed Kerry in every grouping • Except +65’s and Gay/Lesbian
• Obama White support equaled Kerry’s• Obama’s Black support beat Kerry’s by 5%• Middle Aged Voters moved to Obama
• Offsetting the Senior Shift to McCain• Overall Shift of Likely Voters from R to D columns
• R’s lost 10% of their Registered Voters from 04’• Overall Turnout Unchanged but favored D’s in 08’
• D’s increased by +2.6% • while R’s decreased by -1.3%
Source:Gallup Polling
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 13
Economy the #1 Issue
Fox NewsNov 1 & 2
CNN Oct 30 to Nov 1
CBS/NYTOct 25 to 29th
Economy & Jobs 49 57 55
Terrorism & National Security 9 10 13
Health Care 8 13 9
Taxes 8
War in Iraq 7 13 6
Ethics/Government Corruption 6
Abortion 6
Energy 3 7
Immigration 2 5 4
Note: 60% of Union Voters said Economy was the Top IssueSource: AFL-CIO
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 14
Our Key Issues
• Employee Free Choice Act• Fair Trade Policies/Jobs• Healthcare Reform
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 15
Employee Free Choice Act
• Card Check Recognition (majority sign, NLRB Certifies)• 1st Contract Mediation – Binding Arbitration• Penalties Against Companies for Organizing Campaign
Violations/1st Contract• Triple Penalties for illegal Discrimination or Discharge
during Organizing/1st Contract• Mandatory Court Injunctive Relief to be
sought by NLRB over violations • President-Elect Obama has committed to
sign EFCA
Source: AFL-CIO Web Site
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 18
Employee Free Choice Act• On March 1, 2007, the House passed the act by a vote of 241 to 185. • On June 26, 2007 the Senate voted 51 to 48 on a motion to invoke cloture
on the motion to proceed to consider the bill. • 60 votes were needed to invoke cloture. (to end a Senate filibuster)
• President-Elect Obama has committed to Sign EFCA
• House Passage is Assured
• Senate is still short of votes needed to beat Filibuster
• However, we are only talking about swinging a vote or two now
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 19
Fair Trade President Gerard to Democratic Party Platform Committee
“Senator Obama has voiced his concerns.”
“He has said that his first principle in approaching trade issues is that “our trade agreements must provide clear and measurable benefits for American workers….”
“He has made it clear that he will pursue a pragmatic, results-oriented policy that recognizes the need for the U.S. to lead, but that leadership requires the strong support of our citizens – citizens who, far too often, have seen their nation’s trade policies abandon their interests and jeopardize their jobs and their futures.”
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 20
Fair Trade Agenda – Gerard/DNC continued..
How can we continue to run trade deficits of hundreds of billions of dollars a year, accumulating more than $6 trillion in current account deficits since 1994 –borrowing about $2 billion each and every day and not expect that there will be a price to pay?
How can we expect to maintain a strong currency when our economy is so weak?
How can we lose more than 3.5 million manufacturing jobs and see more than 40,000 facilities shuttered and ask our citizens to support trade policies that have shipped their jobs overseas?
How can we refuse to pursue, aggressively enough, the fight for labor rights in America or overseas and expect that workers in other nations will have the rights necessary to be adequately compensated for their labor and help build a bridge to the middle class?
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 21
Fair Trade - Gerard/DNC continued..
How can we watch as other nations – like China -- subsidize their producers, dump their products on our markets and refuse to accept our goods in their markets while our leaders simply continue to spout ideology and refuse to enforce our own laws?
How can we let policymakers tell our children that they should work hard and go to college to get one of the “jobs of the future” when those jobs, increasingly, are being done offshore as our nation’s advanced technology trade deficit with China alone amounts to more than $67 billion?
How can we control our own economic destiny when country after country with which we’ve built up huge trade deficits create sovereign wealth funds that are beginning to shop the American market
Source: Gerard Speech to Dem. Party Platform Committee – 8-1-08
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 22
Fair Trade – Election Results
• +26 more House Fair Trade Advocates Elected (net)• +5 more Senate Fair Trade Advocates Elected (net)
• (Adds to the 37 Fair Traders elected in 2006)
• Obama Shifted Our Way on Trade during the course of the Election
• Makes our Agenda Much more Achievable• Allows a more Aggressive Agenda• Jobs Issue has made it a Priority
Source: Public Citizen
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 23
Health Care Principles• Universal Coverage (everyone covered)• Government has a “central role” in regulating, financing and
providing• Coverage through large groups that pool risk to ensure coverage• Coverage that is comprehensive and affordable• Unions/Employers retain the ability to supplement coverage• Individuals should continue to choose their own doctors and
providers• Financing Shared Responsibility (individuals, companies,
government, etc.) • Level Playing field for all businesses (age/# of retirees
should not disadvantage)• Effective Cost Control and Information Transparency
• Employees should have a “protected voice” in improving health care
• Do No Harm (don’t make it worse until we fix it)
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 26
Healthcare• President-Elect Obama’s Plan becomes the starting point
• Not a Question of “IF”, just “What”• Should Bring Reluctant Stakeholders to the Table
• Business, Medical Professionals, etc.• Kennedy, Baucus and others already preparing the groundwork• Tight money will be a hurdle
• One Indicator:• At last count, 119 Members of Congress have now
signed on to the Healthcare for America Now (HCAN) campaign, indicating their commitment to enacting a guarantee of quality, affordable health care for all as a “first order of business” in 2009.
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 27
Where Do We Go From Here
• Opportunity, not a Guarantee• Support the new President and Congress to get things done• Patience with timing and the process• Continuous Campaign (Movement vs. Issue Response)• Organizing Model alongside a Service Model• Test the Mandate
D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 28
Your Turn
• Questions• Comments• Discussion