2008 and Beyond: A new electoral

landscape?Todd Donovan

Western Washington University

ThemesThemes What might be unprecedented about the

2008 election?

Any change in the party system on horizon?

Stability and Change in US Stability and Change in US ElectionElection Most elections replicate past results

Some are “realignments”

1932, 1968, 1980.... New landscape, new coalitions

Recent Electoral CoalitionsRecent Electoral Coalitions New DealNew Deal 1932 - 1968

Democrats strongest in South; GOP in NE

Regan RevolutionRegan Revolution 1980 - 2000 1968 as precursor Clinton coalition as interlude

StalemateStalemate 2000 - 2008

New Deal CoalitionNew Deal Coalition 1930s - 1968 Democrats dominate Congress & White House GOP success with White House 1952

Dems enduring majority party GOP = West, New England, OH/IN Dems = South, PA, NY, MA, unions, blue collar, Catholics

Issue: New Deal economicsIssue: New Deal economics

New Deal CoalitionNew Deal Coalition

1944 FDR 432 (53.4)

Dewey 99 (45.9)

GOP competitive in CA, NY, IL, MI, CT, PA…

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Post New Deal CoalitionPost New Deal Coalition

1968 Humphrey 191 (42.7)

Nixon 301 (43.4)

Wallace 46 (13%)

Democratic Party in South splitting

Issue: Race

Post New Deal Coalition

1976 Carter 297 (55%) Ford 240 (45%)

Last time Dems carry the South

Post New Deal Coalition After 1968 New issue divide drives people to different

parties No majority party: Divided government Civil rights drives white southerners away from

New Deal coalition Takes decades for GOP to get fully established

in South

Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution 1980 - 2000 Realignment of South to GOP deepens Dems down to 30% of white southern vote Rocky Mountain West more solidly GOP What was changing?

Decline of class-based voting (not income) rise of ‘values’ issues & values voters in GOP coalition Emerging gender split in voting

Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution

1980 1980 RR 50.7% End of Democratic

dominance in South GOP gains in US

House GOP controls US

Senate

Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution

19881988 Bush 426 (53%) Dukakis 111 (46) Democrats

maintain control of US House; regain Senate

Clinton Coalition (interlude)Clinton Coalition (interlude)

1992 - 20001992 - 2000 Clinton wins some South (not down ballot) End of Democratic Majorities in Congress Higher gender gap, higher urban / rural

gap; economic concerns high Democrats party of the two coasts Polarization of parties?

Clinton Coalition = GOP gainsClinton Coalition = GOP gains 1992

2 incumbent Dem Senators lose (GA, NC) 2 incumbent GOP Senators lost (CA, WI) Net loss of 9 Dem House seats (AR, GA, AL, FL, SC)

1994 Dems lose 54 US House Seats, lose majority Southerners, Whites, men largest vote shift to GOP

Clinton CoalitionClinton Coalition

19921992 Clinton 370 (43%) Bush 168 (37%) LA, AR, TN, KY,

FL all Dem Dems loselose seats

in US House, lose 55 seats in ‘94

Clinton CoalitionClinton Coalition

19961996

Clinton 379 (49%) Dole 159 (41%)

LA, AR, MO, TN, KY, FL all Dem.

2000 - 2008: Deadlock2000 - 2008: Deadlock

Near even division 2000 - 2008 2000 presidential election a tie

Senate a tie, US House 12 seats

Old South now solid GOP (not so much with AR, LA, FL)

Social issues, security trumped economics in 2000, 2004

2000 - 2008: Deadlock2000 - 2008: Deadlock Rise of large generational split

2000 & 2004 65% of those under 30 voted Democrat

If they vote….

Growth of Latino vote (8% in 2004) trending Democrat (out of FL)

2006 Midterm vote referendum on Bush

The Old (?) MapThe Old (?) Map 2000 Stalemate2000 Stalemate Bush 271 (48%) Gore 266 (48.4)

NH, OH GOP NM, IA Dem

The Old (?) MapThe Old (?) Map

2004 Stalemate2004 Stalemate

Bush 286 (53%) Kerry 251 (47%)

NH Dem NM, OH, IA GOP

A Realignment in 2008?A Realignment in 2008? 1860 1896 1932 1968

1980 1994

??

“Durable change in party coalitions”

New issues that break old coalitions

New parties High interest, high

turnout

What Changed in 2008?What Changed in 2008? GOP

Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus about

candidate High turnout Not leading in fundraising Defending 12 of 13 most

vulnerable Senators

What Changed in 2008?What Changed in 2008? Democrats

Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus

Huge generation split Huge racial split Modest gender split

High turnout Nearly as high as 1972

Lead in fundraising

McCain vs Obama DynamicMcCain vs Obama Dynamic Different than McCain vs. Clinton

Obama and the west a new coalition (CO, NV, AZ, WI, MN, OR, WA)

Clinton and the Midwest the old coalition (OH, PA)

Both appealed to independent voters

Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue”

IN +11 Obama ND + 9 Obama MT +9 Obama NE +9 Obama (+1 EC vote) DE +9 Obama UT +8 Obama VT +8 Obama MA +8 Obama VA +7 Obama (+13 EC votes)

Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue”

NV +7 Obama (+5 EC votes) NM +7 Obama (+ 5 EC votes) CT +7 Obama WI +7 Obama CA +7 Obama CO +7 Obama (+ 9 EC votes) SD +6 Obama MI +6 Obama NC +6 Obama (+ 15 EC votes)

Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map…

MD + 6 Obama GA +6 Obama KS +5 Obama

Same old thing WA + 5 Obama ME + 4 Obama IA, FL, NH, NJ, NY, PA + 4 Obama (+ 34 EC votes) OH + 2 Obama (+20 EC votes)

No change….No change…. Many w/ GOP gains over 2004

OK AR AL LA TN KY WV

Who is changing?Who is changing? Age

Young voters (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

48% 54% 66% (+18 vs. Gore) Over 65 voters

2000 2004 2008

50% 48% 45% (-5 vs Gore)

Who is changing?Who is changing? Partisans

Independents (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

45% 49% 52% (+7 vs. Gore)

Who is changing?Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity

African Americans (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

90% 88% 95%

Latinos (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

62% 53% 67%

Who is changing?Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity

White women (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

48% 44% 46% (-2 vs. Gore)

White men (% Dem)

2000 2004 2008

36% 37% 41% (+5 vs Gore)

What is Changing?What is Changing? Issue effects

Economy top concern again Iraq fading….

Any realigning issue? slavery, industrialization, Great Depression, Civil

Rights...

Shades of RealignmentShades of Realignment First Dem w/ popular majority since Carter Big Dem gains in US Senate (+7?)

OR, NM, CO, VA, NC, NH (AK, MN, GA in play) LBJ Last Dem to carry seats (+2 in 1964) RR came in w/ +12 Senate seats in 1980

Dem gains in US House 1930s Last time a party gained +20 in 2x elections

Shades of Realignment 2008 a referendum on Bush, the economy

Any Democrat would have won…

What realigning issue?

Can Democrats build an enduring majority? New coalition based on younger voters, people

of color, Independents, westerners…..