1ac natural gas

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1AC ManufacturingThe shale boom is unsustainable—collapse causes economic

devastation and energy price spikesAhmed 14 – Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development and hief

Research !"cer at #nitas ommunications $here he leads on %eopolitical ris. '()ormer *P %eolo%ist+ pea oil is here and it $ill,-rea economies,/ 0he 1uardian/ 2anuary 34567

8hat happens $hen the shale -oom... %oes -oom9 0hese scienti:c studies are not the only indications that somethin% is deeply

$ron% $ith the IEA,s assessment of prospects for shale %as production and accompanyin% economic prosperity. Indeed/ *usiness

Insider reports that far from -ein% pro:ta-le/ the shale %as industry is facin% hu%e :nancial hurdles .;0he economics of fracin% are horrid/; o-serves #.<. :nancial =ournalist 8olf Richter. ;Production fallso> a cli> from day one and continues for a year or so until it levels out at a-out 54percent of initial production.; 0he result is that ;drillin% is destroyin% capital at anastonishin% rate/ and drillers are left $ith a mountain of de-t =ust $hen decline ratesare startin% to $rea their havoc. 0o eep the decline rates from mucin% up incomestatements/ companies had to drill more and more/ $ith ne$ $ells main% up forthe declinin% production of old $ells. Alas/ the scheme hit a $all/ namely reality.; 2ust a fe$ months a%o/ Exxon

E! Rex 0illerson complained that the lo$er prices resultin% from the #.<. natural %as %lut $ere dramatically decreasin% pro:ts. 0his

pro-lem is compounded -y the s$iftly plummetin% production rates at shale $ells/ $hich start hi%h -ut fall fast. Althou%h/ Exxonhad o"cially insisted in shareholder meetin%s that it $as not losin% money on %as/ 0illerson candidly told a meetin% at the ouncil

on )orei%n Relations+ ;8e are all losin% our shirts today. 8e,re main% no money. It,s all in the red.; 0he oil industry hasactively and deli-erately attempted to o-scure the challen%es facin% shale %asproduction. A seminal Ne$ ?or 0imes investi%ation in 3455 found that despite a pu-lic stance of extreme optimism/ the#.<. oil industry is ;privately septical of shale %as.; Accordin% to the 0imes/ ;the %as may not-e as easy and cheap to extract from shale formations deep under%round as thecompanies are sayin%/ accordin% to hundreds of industry e@mails and internaldocuments and an analysis of data from thousands of $ells.; 0he emails revealed industry

executives/ la$yers/ state %eolo%ists and maret analysts voicin% ;septicism a-out lofty forecasts; and uestionin% ;$hethercompanies are intentionally/ and even ille%ally/ overstatin% the productivity of their $ells and the size of their reserves.; 0hou%h

corro-orated -y independent studies/ such revelations have -een lar%ely i%nored -y =ournalists and policymaers. *ut $e

i%nore them at our peril. Arthur *erman/ a B3@year veteran petroleum %eolo%ist $ho $ored $ith Amoco 'prior to itsmer%er $ith *P7/ on the same day as the release of the IEA,s 3453 annual report/ told !ilPrice that ;the decline rates shalereservoirs experience... are incredi-ly hi%h.; itin% the Ea%leford shaleCthe ;mother of all shale oil plays;Che pointed out that the;annual decline rate is hi%her than 63 percent.; 2ust to eep production at/ oil companies $ill have to drill ;almost 5444 $ells in the

Ea%leford shale/ every year... 2ust for one play/ $e,re talin% a-out 54 or 53 -illion a year =ust toreplace supply. I add all these thin%s up and it starts to approach the amount of money needed to-ail out the -anin% industry. 8here is that money %oin% to come from9; hesapeae Ener%y recently found itself in

exactly this situation/ forcin% it to sell assets to meet its o-li%ations. ;<ta%%erin% under hi%h de-t/; reported the 8ashin%ton Post/

hesapeae said ;it $ould sell F.G -illion of %as :elds and pipelinesCanother step in shrinin% the company $hose -rash chiefexecutive had made it a leader in the countryHs shale %as revolution.; 0he sale $as forced -y a ;com-ination of lo$ natural %as

prices and excessive -orro$in%.; 0he $orst@case scenario is that several lar%e oil companies :ndthemselves facin% nancial distress simultaneously. If that happens/ accordin% to *erman/

;you may have a couple of -i% -anruptcies or taeovers and every-ody pulls -ac/all the money evaporates / all the capital %oes a$ay. 0hat,s the $orst@case scenario.;

0o mae matters $orse/ *erman has sho$n conclusively that the industry exa%%erated E#Rs 'Estimated #ltimate Recovery7 of shale$ells usin% a$ed industry models that/ in turn/ have fed into the IEA,s future pro=ections. *erman is not alone. 8ritin% in Petroleum

Revie$/ #.<. ener%y consultants Ruud 8ei=ermars and rispian credie ar%ued there remains stron% ;-asis forreasona-le dou-ts a-out the relia-ility and dura-ility of #.<. shale %as reserves/;$hich have -een ;inated; under ne$ <ecurity & Exchan%e ommission rules. 0heeventual conseuences of the current %as %lut/ in other $ords/ are more than liely to -ean unsustaina-le shale -u--le that collapses under its o$n $ei%ht/ precipitatin% asupply collapse and price spike. Rather than fuellin% prosperity/ the shale revolution $ill



instead -oost a temporary recovery masin% deeper/ structural insta-ilities. Inevita-ly/

those insta-ilities $ill collide/ leavin% us $ith an even bigger nancial mess/ on afaster tra=ectory to$ard costly environmental destruction.

Natural gas price spikes destroy steel manufacturing ames 1! – <teve 2ames is a correspondent for Reuters. '(Analysis+ <teelmaers eye %as to cut costs/ drive exports/ Reuters/

http+JJ$$$.reuters.comJarticleJ3453J4BJ5FJus@steel@%as@id#<*REK3)53?34534B5F7

America,s steel industry/ for decades a sym-ol of industrial decline/ is -ettin% on natural %as tomae it more competitive a%ainst forei%n producers. #.<. <teel orp 'L.N7 and Nucor Inc 'N#E.N7/ thet$o lar%est #.<. steel producers/ are chan%in% their traditional manufacturin%processes as relatively cheap domestic natural %as supplies -ecome more plentiful.<ome experts -elieve the ne$ techniues $ill not only allo$ steelmaers to cut costsand lo$er sellin% prices at home/ -ut also %ive #.<. companies a chance to compete $ith 2apanese/ <outh Morean

and European rivals for a slice of the export pie. ;1as is very positive for steel it really lo$ers the cost of the product/; said ichaelOocer of Oocer Associates/ a consultant for steel companies. #.<. <teel hief Executive 2ohn <urma said in an intervie$ that

usin% natural %as in some sta%es of production can cut the use of more expensivecoin% coal -y some 54 percent. e estimated that factorin% in costs such as la-or/ ener%y and transportation/ the

overall savin%s $ould -e F to Q per ton of steel. #.<. <teel produces 3B million tons per year. hristopher Plummer/ mana%in%

director of etal <trate%ies/ an industry consultant in 8est hester/ Pennsylvania/ said the %lo-al avera%e cost of producin% a ton ofsteel is a-out F44 to Q44. Russian steelmaers produce at the -ottom of the cost curve/ avera%in% a-out 44 per ton. Americansare in the middle at a-out F3 to FQ per ton. 0he most expensive are the 2apanese and Moreans/ at F4 to Q4 per ton. 8hile

a savin%s of a-out 5 percent may not sound l ie much/ every little -it counts for companies in anindustry that has -een stru%%lin% $ith steep rises in ra$ material costs/ such as coin%

coal/ iron ore and scrap metal. ;?ou do an analysis of our costs and they are much hi%her than :ve years a%o/; said <urma/ $hose

company posted a net loss of 33F million for the fourth uarter @@ its :fth in the last ei%ht uarters. ; 0he capital cost toincrease our a-ility to in=ect %reater uantities of natural %as into our -last furnacesis minimal/ -ut the potential savin%s certainly start to add up $hen you areproducin% 34 million tons or more of steel every year.; 8ith natural %as prices at 54@year lo$s

-ecause ne$ fracin% technolo%y has opened up hu%e deposits in the Northeast #nited <tates/ most domesticsteelmaers are looin% to use more of it. ;0here is a ne$ focus on nat%as/; said Oarry

Mavana%h/ president of the American Iron and <teel Institute,s <teel aret Development Institute. ;#ntil the recent discovery/ $e

-elieved coal@-ased technolo%ies $ould dominate the future. No$ the %ame has chan%ed in the near term.; Nucor/ for instance/

has dropped plans to -uild a traditional -last furnace in Oouisiana and instead isconstructin% a %as@:red plant to produce direct reduced iron/ or DRI/ a ey in%redient in its steel@main% process.

0he Q4 million facility $ill convert natural %as and iron ore pellets into hi%h@uality DRI used -y Nucor,s steel mills/ alon% $ith

recycled scrap/ to produce 3. million tons of steel a year. Oie #.<. <teel/ Nucor produces a-out 3B million tons of steel a year.Accordin% to Nucor o"cials/ the DRI o>ers a car-on footprint that is one@third of that for the coe ovenJ-last furnace/ and at lessthan half the capital cost. Nucor may -e -etter placed than #.<. <teel to reap the -ene:ts of lo$er@cost %as -ecause it is a so@called

mini@mill operator/ $hich melts recycled steel or pi% iron in electric arc furnaces. Electricity is expensive/ -ut costs can -ecut -y su-stitutin% natural %as to :re the furnace. #.<. <teel is an inte%rated manufacturer that lar%ely

maes steel the old@fashioned $ay/ -y cooin% iron ore and coin% coal in a -last furnace. 0hus/ there is a limit on the amount ofnatural %as it can su-stitute for coal. Nucor has not said ho$ much it expects to save on the cost of a ton of steel -y usin% morenatural %as. !f course/ there is no %uarantee that natural %as prices $ill stay lo$ forever -ut increases are liely to -e more limitedthan in the past -ecause of the increased production. In the past/ prices $ere volatile and in 344 $ere as hi%h as 56 per million

*ritish thermal units '*0#7/ compared $ith sli%htly a-ove 3 per million *0# today. *ut 2ohn Anton/ director of steel services for the%lo-al forecastin% company I</ said he -elieves there is little ris that steel companies $ill %et -urned should %as prices rise a%ain.;DRI cannot stand hi%h %as prices -ut $ith fracin% technolo%y/ $e see lo$ prices around 6 lastin% for B4 years and under K forthe next K4 years.; Nucor/ $hich posted a 5BQ million pro:t for the fourth uarter/ is usin% a variety of measures to loc in currentlo$ prices. President and hief !peratin% !"cer 2ohn )erriola said the company has lon%@term %as contracts at its DRI plant in

0rinidad $ith an avera%e cost of a-out 3 per million *0#. In addition/ Nucor and #.<. <teel are usin% hed%in% techniues to protect

themselves a%ainst potential price rises. <urma said the shift to natural %as could %ive #.<. <teel/ a554@year@old sym-ol of American industrial po$er/ a competitive ed%e in the 35stentury.



"teel manufacturing is key to military primacy and po#er

pro$ection%uyer &' C <teve *uyer is a em-er of the #.<. ouse of Representatives. e $as a olonel in the #.<. Army Reserve/

holds a *.<. from 0he itadel/ and a 2.D. from Salparaiso #niversity. '(<tatement of Representative <teve *uyer *efore theInternational 0rade ommission Re%ardin% the :ve@year sunset revie$ on ertain ot@Rolled ar-on <teel )lat Products fromAr%entina/ hina/ India/ Indonesia/ Mazahstan/ Netherlands/ Romania/ <outh Africa/ 0ai$an/ 0hailand/ and #raine 'Inv. Nos. Q45 @0A@

646@64K and QB5 @0A@KGK@G4K7/ 2uly B5/ 344Q7

A ro-ust steel industry is fundamental to the security and economic via-ility ofthis nation. If you $ere to contemplate the ten resources considered essential to the successful esta-lishment of a nation/

steel $ould -e hi%h on that list. A fruitful domestic steel industry maintains its via-ility -y -ein%

adaptive/ technolo%ically savvy/ and exi-le so that it can maintain its competitive ed%e in the $orld maret. 0hatcompetitive ed%e lends itself to economic security and sta-ility here at home. *oth

of those elements are vital in%redients to a nation,s a-ility to develop and maintain anadeuate defense. I -elieve $e must remain vi%ilant to protect ourselves from a future$ithout a steelmain% infrastructure su"cient to meet our national defense needs. In

the years that have follo$ed the tra%ic events of <eptem-er 55/ 3445/ national defense has dominated pu-lic attention. 8hencontemplatin% the tumultuous nature of this %lo-al $ar a%ainst terror in $hich $e are

immersed/ I thin it is apparent that $e cannot accept a situation in $hich $e are relianton the indness of stran%ers to meet our security@related steel needs . Dependin% ontrusted friends and allies may not -e $ise/ since they have reuirements of theiro$n for steel. <imply put/ the defense of our nation depends on steel. !ur aircraftcarriers/ cruisers/ tans/ umvees/ are made of steel . 8e cannot -ecome dependenton forei%n sources for this material so vital to our national defense. 0he #nited <tates isthe only superpo$er in the $orld. 8e cannot pro=ect our force around the %lo-e/ $hich

from time to time is necessary/ $ithout the a-ility to move people and euipment uicly . It isin our national interest to maintain a vi%orous steel industry. 0he economic sta-ilityof the steel industry here at home/ and our a-ility to remain competitive a-road/ directlyimpacts our national security. 0he e"cient lo$@cost producers that comprise the mem-ership of our domestic steel

maret can compete e>ectively a%ainst any forei%n producer in the %lo-al economy. 0o ensure their stature/ the steel industry has

invested -illions of dollars in modernizin% itself $hile simultaneously improvin% environmental compliance. It has learned the hard$ay the -ene:t of cuttin%@ed%e technolo%y. 0hese producers are heavily concentrated in north$est Indiana and at the end of 344Fthey employed over 5G/444 Americans in that re%ion. ompanies lie Nucor of ra$fordsville and <teel Dynamics of Pitts-orocontri-ute su-stantially to the ensurin% a healthy local economy and there-y contri-ute to a sta-le and healthy national economy.

0he nation,s annual production of over I44 million tons of steel/ of $hich Indiana is the second@lar%est producer amon% the states/eeps this country at the top of the $orld$ide steel industry. o$ever/ if the competitive nature of this maret is unfairly inuenced-y steel dumpin% or -y ille%al su-sidies %iven to forei%n producers -y their %overnments or other entities/ the inte%rity of thedomestic and %lo-al maret is =eopardized. In those instances/ the domestic maret loses its a-ility to e>ectively compete $ith its%lo-al rivals. 8hen that occurs/ it ne%atively impacts the economic sta-ility of our domestic steel industry $hich in turn threatens

our national security. 8e need to ensure that companies lie Nucor and <teel Dynamics have the opportunity to modernize and %ro$to adeuately meet the demands of the %lo-al maret $ithout the fear of sustainin% :nancial dama%e from unfair or ille%al tradepractices. 0o ensure that our nationHs defense remains adeuate and capa-le/ $e must continue to ena-le mechanisms that $illinuence other countries to play -y the rules. <imultaneously/ $e must -e co%nizant/ and tae appropriate action/ to reco%nizethose instances in $hich anti@dumpin% and countervailin% duties are no lon%er reuired to safe%uard our economic and securityinterests. In either instance/ $e cannot allo$ to %o unchallen%ed the continuous violations of international and #.<. trade la$s that

lend to a se$ed maret and undercut the a-ility for fair competition to ourish in the %lo-al economy. 0he preservation

of the economic inte%rity of our domestic steel industry is fundamental to our a-ilityto protect our very existence as a nation. Please tae this under consideration $hile contemplatin% your

decision in this matter – a vital instrument of our national security lies in your hands.

(egemony solves con)ict escalation and the transition causesgreat po#er #ar%rooks 1* – <tephen *roos is an Associate Professor of 1overnment at Dartmouth olle%e. 2ohn Ien-erry is the Al-ert 1.

il-an Professor of Politics and International A>airs at Princeton #niversity in the Department of Politics and the 8oodro$ 8ilson<chool of Pu-lic and International A>airs. 8illiam . 8ohlforth is the Daniel 8e-ster Professor in the Department of 1overnment atDartmouth olle%e. '(DonHt ome ome America+ 0he ase A%ainst Retrenchment/ International <ecurity/ Solume BQ/ Issue B/



8inter 3453J345B/ p%. Q–57

A core premise of deep en%a%ement is that it prevents the emer%ence of a far more dan%erous %lo-al security

environment. )or one thin%/ as noted a-ove/ the #nited <tatesH overseas presence %ives it the levera%e to restrainpartners from tain% provocative action. Perhaps more important/ its core alliancecommitments also deter states $ith aspirations to re%ional he%emony from

contemplatin% expansion and mae its partners more secure/ reducin% their incentive to adopt solutions to theirsecurity pro-lems that threaten others and thus stoe security dilemmas. 0he contention that en%a%ed #.<. po$er dampens the-aleful e>ects of anarchy is consistent $ith inuential variants of realist theory. Indeed/ ar%ua-ly the scariest portrayal of the $ar@

prone $orld that $ould emer%e a-sent the (American Paci:er is provided in the $ors of 2ohn earsheimer / $hoforecasts dan%erous multipolar re%ions replete $ith security competition/ armsraces / nuclear proliferation and associated preventive $ar temptations/ re%ionalrivalries/ and even runs at re%ional he%emony and full@scale %reat po$er $ar. Q3 o$ do

retrenchment advocates/ the -ul of $hom are realists/ discount this -ene:t9 0heir ar%uments are complicated/ -ut t$o capturemost of the variation+ '57 #.<. security %uarantees are not necessary to prevent dan%erous rivalries and conict in Eurasia or '37prevention of rivalry and conict in Eurasia is not a #.<. interest. Each response is connected to a di>erent theory or set of theories/$hich maes sense %iven that the $hole de-ate hin%es on a complex future counterfactual '$hat $ould happen to EurasiaHs securitysettin% if the #nited <tates truly disen%a%ed97. Althou%h a certain ans$er is impossi-le/ each of these responses is nonetheless a$eaer ar%ument for retrenchment than advocates acno$led%e. 0he :rst response o$s from defensive realism as $ell as otherinternational relations theories that discount the conict@%eneratin% potential of anarchy under contemporary conditions. QBDefensive realists maintain that the hi%h expected costs of territorial conuest/ defense dominance/ and an array of policies and

practices that can -e used credi-ly to si%nal -eni%n intent/ mean that EurasiaHs ma=or states could mana%e re%ional multipolaritypeacefully $ithout the American paci:er. Retrenchment $ould -e a -et on this scholarship/ particularly in re%ions $here the inds of sta-ilizers that nonrealist theories point toCsuch as democratic %overnance or dense institutional lina%esCare either a-sent or$ealy present. 0here are three other ma=or -odies of scholarship/ ho$ever/ that mi%ht %ive decisionmaers pause -efore main%this -et. )irst is re%ional expertise. Needless to say/ there is no consensus on the net security e>ects of #.<. $ithdra$al. Re%ardin%each re%ion/ there are optimists and pessimists. )e$ experts expect a return of intense %reat po$er competition in a post@AmericanEurope/ -ut many dou-t European %overnments $ill pay the political costs of increased E# defense cooperation and the -ud%etary

costs of increasin% military outlays. Q6 0he result mi%ht -e a Europe that is incapa-le of securin% itself from various threats that

could -e desta-ilizin% $ithin the re%ion and -eyond 'e.%./ a re%ional conict ain to the 5GG4s *alan $ars7/ lacs capacity for %lo-al

security missions in $hich #.<. leaders mi%ht $ant European participation/ and is vulnera-le to the inuence of outside risin%po$ers. 8hat a-out the other parts of Eurasia $here the #nited <tates has a su-stantial military presence9 Re%ardin% the iddle

East/ the -alance -e%ins to s$in% to$ard pessimists concerned that states currently -aced -y 8ashin%tonC nota-ly Israel/E%ypt/ and <audi Ara-iaCmi%ht tae actions upon #.<. retrenchment that $ouldintensify security dilemmas . And concernin% East Asia/ pessimism re%ardin% there%ionHs prospects $ithout the American paci:er is pronounced. Ar%ua-ly the principal concern

expressed -y area experts is that 2apan and <outh Morea are liely to o-tain a nuclear capacity

and increase their military commitments/ $hich could stoe a desta-ilizin% reaction from hina. It is

nota-le that durin% the old 8ar/ -oth <outh Morea and 0ai$an moved to o-tain a nuclear $eapons capacity and $ere onlyconstrained from doin% so -y a still@en%a%ed #nited <tates. Q 0he second -ody of scholarship castin% dou-t on the -et on

defensive realismHs san%uine portrayal is all of the research that undermines its conception of state preferences. Defensive realismHs

optimism a-out $hat $ould happen if the #nited <tates retrenched is very muchdependent on its particularCand hi%hly restrictiveCassumption a-out statepreferences once $e relax this assumption/ then much of its -asis for optimism vanishes. <peci:cally/ the prediction of post@

American tranuility throu%hout Eurasia rests on the assumption that security is the only relevant state preference/ $ith securityde:ned narro$ly in terms of protection from violent external attacs on the homeland. #nder that assumption/ the security pro-lemis lar%ely solved as soon as o>ense and defense are clearly distin%uisha-le/ and o>ense is extremely expensive relative to defense.

*ur%eonin% research across the social and other sciences/ ho$ever/ underminesthat core assumption+ states have preferences not only for security -ut also for

presti%e/ status/ and other aims/ and they en%a%e in trade@o>s amon% the variouso-=ectives. QF In addition/ they de:ne security not =ust in terms of territorial protection -ut in vie$ of many and varied milieu

%oals. It follo$s that even states that are relatively secure may nevertheless en%a%e inhi%hly competitive -ehavior. Empirical studies sho$ that this is indeed sometimes the case. QQ In sum/ a -et on a

-eni%n postretrenchment Eurasia is a -et that leaders of ma=or countries $ill never allo$ these nonsecurity preferences to inuencetheir strate%ic choices. 0o the de%ree that these -odies of scholarly no$led%e have predictive levera%e/ #.<. retrenchment $ouldresult in a si%ni:cant deterioration in the security environment in at least some of the $orldHs ey re%ions. 8e have already

mentioned the third/ even more alarmin% -ody of scholarship. !>ensive realism predicts that the $ithdra$al of theAmerican paci:er $ill yield either a competitive re%ional multipolarity complete $ith



associated insecurity/ arms racin%/ crisis insta-ility/ nuclear proliferation/ and the lie/ or

-ids for re%ional he%emony/ $hich may -e -eyond the capacity of local %reat po$ers to contain 'and $hich in any case $ould

%enerate intensely competitive -ehavior/ possi-ly includin% re%ional %reat po$er $ar7. ence it is unsurprisin% that

retrenchment advocates are prone to focus on the second ar%ument noted a-ove+ that avoidin% $ars and security dilemmas in the$orldHs core re%ions is not a #.<. national interest. )e$ dou-t that the #nited <tates could survive the return of insecurity andconict amon% Eurasian po$ers/ -ut at $hat cost9 uch of the $or in this area has focused on the economic externalities of arene$ed threat of insecurity and $ar/ $hich $e discuss -elo$. )ocusin% on the pure security rami:cations/ there are t$o mainreasons $hy decisionmaers may -e rationally reluctant to run the retrenchment experiment. )irst/ overall hi%her levels of conict

mae the $orld a more dan%erous place. 8ere Eurasia to return to hi%her levels of interstatemilitary competition/ one $ould see overall hi%her levels of military spendin% and innovation and a hi%her

lielihood of competitive re%ional proxy $ars and armin% of client statesCall of $hich $ould -e

concernin%/ in part -ecause it $ould promote a faster di>usion of military po$er a$ay from the #nited <tates. 1reater re%ional

insecurity could $ell feed proliferation cascades/ as states such as E%ypt/ 2apan/ <outh Morea/ 0ai$an/and <audi Ara-ia all mi%ht choose to create nuclear forces. QK It is unliely that proliferation

decisions -y any of these actors $ould -e the end of the %ame+ they $ould liely %enerate pressure locally for more proliferation.)ollo$in% Menneth 8altz/ many retrenchment advocates are proliferation optimists/ assumin% that nuclear deterrence solves the

security pro-lem. QG #sually carried out in dyadic terms/ the de-ate over the sta-ility of proliferationchan%es as the num-ers %o up. Proliferation optimism rests on assumptions of rationality and narro$ security

preferences. In social science/ ho$ever/ such assumptions are inevita-ly pro-a-ilistic. !ptimists assume that most states are led -yrational leaders/ most $ill overcome or%anizational pro-lems and resist the temptation to preempt -efore feared nei%h-ors

nuclearize/ and most pursue only security and are ris averse. on:dence in such pro-a-ilistic assumptions declines if the $orld

$ere to move from nine to t$enty/ thirty/ or forty nuclear states. In addition/ many of the other dan%ers noted -y analysts $ho areconcerned a-out the desta-ilizin% e>ects of nuclear proliferationCincludin% the ris of accidents and the prospects that

some ne$ nuclear po$ers $ill not have truly surviva-le forcesCseem prone to %o up as the num-er of nuclearpo$ers %ro$s. oreover/ the ris of (unforeseen crisis dynamics that could spin out of controlis also hi%her as the num-er of nuclear po$ers increases. )inally/ add to these concerns the

enhanced dan%er of nuclear leaa%e/ and a $orld $ith overall hi%her levels of security competition -ecomes yet more $orrisome. 0he ar%ument that maintainin% Eurasian peace is not a #.<. interest faces a second pro-lem. !n $idely accepted realistassumptions/ acno$led%in% that #.<. en%a%ement preserves peace dramatically narro$s the di>erence -et$een retrenchment anddeep en%a%ement. )or many supporters of retrenchment/ the optimal strate%y for a po$er such as the #nited <tates/ $hich has

attained re%ional he%emony and is separated from other %reat po$ers -y oceans/ is o>shore -alancin%+ stay over the horizon and(pass the -uc to local po$ers to do the dan%erous $or of counter-alancin% any local risin% po$er. 0he #nited <tates shouldcommit to onshore -alancin% only $hen local -alancin% is liely to fail and a %reat po$er appears to -e a credi-le contender forre%ional he%emony/ as in the cases of 1ermany/ 2apan/ and the <oviet #nion in the midt$entieth century. 0he pro-lem is thathinaHs rise puts the possi-ility of its attainin% re%ional he%emony on the ta-le/ at least in the medium to lon% term. As earsheimer

notes/ ( 0he #nited <tates $ill have to play a ey role in counterin% hina/ -ecause its

Asian nei%h-ors are not stron% enou%h to do it -y themselves. K5 0herefore/ unless hinaHs rise

stalls/ (the #nited <tates is liely to act to$ard hina similar to the $ay it -ehaved to$ard the <oviet #nion durin% the old 8ar. K3

It follo$s that the #nited <tates should tae no action that $ould compromise its capacity to move to onshore -alancin% in

the future. It $ill need to maintain ey alliance relationships in Asia as $ell as the formida-ly

expensive military capacity to intervene there. 0he implication is to %et out of Ira and Af%hanistan/ reduce the

presence in Europe/ and pivot to AsiaC =ust $hat the #nited <tates is doin%. KB In sum/ the ar%ument that #.<.security commitments are unnecessary for peace is countered -y a lot ofscholarship / includin% hi%hly inuential realist scholarship. In addition/ the ar%ument that Eurasian

peace is unnecessary for #.<. security is $eaened -y the potential for a lar%e num-er of nasty security conseuences as $ell asthe need to retain a latent onshore -alancin% capacity that dramatically reduces the savin%s retrenchment mi%ht -rin%. oreover/s$itchin% -et$een o>shore and onshore -alancin% could $ell -e difTcult. *rin%in% to%ether the thrust of many of the ar%umentsdiscussed so far underlines the de%ree to $hich the case for retrenchment misses the underlyin% lo%ic of the deep en%a%ement

strate%y. *y supplyin% reassurance/ deterrence/ and active mana%ement/ the #nited <tates lo$ers security

competition in the $orldHs ey re%ions/ there-y preventin% the emer%ence of ahothouse atmosphere for %ro$in% ne$ military capa-ilities. Alliance ties dissuade partners from

rampin% up and also provide levera%e to prevent military transfers to potential rivals. !n top of all this/ the #nited <tatesH

formida-le military machine may deter entrzy -y potential rivals. urrent %reat po$er military expendituresas a percenta%e of 1DP are at historical lo$s/ and thus far other ma=or po$ers have shied a$ay from

seein% to match top@end #.<. military capa-ilities. In addition/ they have so far -een careful to avoid attractin% the (focusedenmity of the #nited <tates. K6 All of the $orldHs most modern militaries are #.<. allies 'AmericaHs alliance system of more thansixty countries no$ accounts for some K4 percent of %lo-al military spendin%7/ and the %ap -et$een the #.<. military capa-ility andthat of potential rivals is -y many measures %ro$in% rather than shrinin%. In the end/ therefore/ deep en%a%ement reduces security

competition and does so in a $ay that slo$s the di>usion of po$er a$ay from the #nited <tates. 0his in turn maes it easier to



sustain the policy over the lon% term. 0he 8ider *ene:ts of Deep En%a%ement 0he case a%ainst deep en%a%ement overstates itscosts and underestimates its security -ene:ts. Perhaps its most important $eaness/ ho$ever/ is that its preoccupation $ithsecurity issues diverts attention from some of deep en%a%ement,s most important -ene:ts+ sustainin% the %lo-al economy andfosterin% institutionalized cooperation in $ays advanta%eous to #.<. national interests. Economic *ene:ts Deep en%a%ement is

-ased on a premise central to realist scholarship from E.. arr to Ro-ert 1ilpin+ economic orders do not =ustemer%e spontaneously they are created and sustained -y and for po$erful states. 0o

-e sure/ the sheer size of its economy $ould %uarantee the #nited <tates a si%ni:cant role in the politics of the %lo-al economy

$hatever %rand strate%y it adopted. ?et the fact that it is the leadin% military po$er and security provider also ena-les economic

leadership. 0he security role :%ures in the creation/ maintenance/ and expansion of the system. In part -ecause other statesCincludin% all -ut one of the $orld,s lar%est economiesC$ere heavily dependent on #.<. security protection durin% the old 8ar/ the#nited <tates $as a-le not only to foster the economic order -ut also to prod other states to -uy into it and to support plans for its

pro%ressive expansion.KQ 0oday/ as the discussion in the UEnd Pa%e 64V previous section underscores/ the securitycommitments of deep en%a%ement support the %lo-al economic order -y reducin%the lielihood of security dilemmas/ arms racin%/ insta-ility/ re%ional conicts and/ in extremis/ ma=or po$er $ar.

In so doin%/ the strate%y helps to maintain a sta-le and comparatively open $orld economyCa lon%@standin% #.<. national interest.

In addition to ensurin% the %lo-al economy a%ainst important sources of insecurity/ the extensive set of #.<.military commitments and deployments helps to protect the ;%lo-al economiccommons.; !ne ey $ay is -y helpin% to eep sea@lanes and other shippin%corridors freely availa-le for commerce. A second ey $ay is -y helpin% to esta-lish and protect

propertyJsoverei%nty ri%hts in the oceans. Althou%h it is not the only %lo-al actor relevant to

protectin% the %lo-al economic commons/ the #nited <tates has -y far the mostimportant role %iven its massive naval superiority and the leadership role it plays ininternational economic institutions. If the #nited <tates $ere to pull -ac from the$orld/ protectin% the %lo-al economic commons $ould liely -e much harder toaccomplish for a num-er of reasons+ cooperatin% $ith other nations on thesematters $ould -e less liely to occur maintainin% the relevant institutionalfoundations for promotin% this %oal $ould -e harder and preservin% access to-ases throu%hout the $orldC$hich is needed to accomplish this missionC$ouldliely -e curtailed to some de%ree. Advocates of retrenchment a%ree that a ourishin% %lo-al economy is an important

#.<. interest/ -ut they are lar%ely silent on the role #.<. %rand strate%y plays in sustainin% it.KG )or their part/ many scholars ofinternational political UEnd Pa%e 65V economy have lon% ar%ued that economic openness mi%ht continue even in the a-sence ofhe%emonic leadership.G4 ?et this does not address the real uestion of interest+ Does he%emonic leadership mae the continuationof %lo-al economic sta-ility more liely9 0he voluminous literature contains no analysis that su%%ests a ne%ative ans$er $hat

scholars instead note is that the lielihood of overcomin% pro-lems of collective action/ relative %ains/ and incomplete informationdrops in the a-sence of leadership.G5 It $ould thus tae a -old if not recless leader to run a %rand experiment to determine$hether the %lo-al economy can continue to expand in the a-sence of #.<. leadership. Deep en%a%ement not only helps tounder$rite the %lo-al economy in a %eneral sense/ -ut it also allo$s the #nited <tates to structure it in $ays that serve the #nited<tates, narro$ economic interests. arla Norrlof ar%ues persuasively that America disproportionately -ene:ts from the current

structure of the %lo-al economy/ and that its a-ility to reap these advanta%es is directly tied to its position of military preeminence$ithin the system.G3 !ne $ay this occurs is via ;microlevel structurin%;Cthat is/ the #nited <tates %ets -etter economic -ar%ains orincreased economic cooperation on some speci:c issues than it $ould if i t did not play such a ey security role. As 2oseph Nyeo-serves/ UEnd Pa%e 63V ;Even if the direct use of force $ere -anned amon% a %roup of countries/ military force $ould still play animportant political role. )or example/ the American military role in deterrin% threats to allies/ or of assurin% access to a crucialresource such as oil in the Persian 1ulf/ means that the provision of protective force can -e used in -ar%ainin% situations. <ometimesthe lina%e may -e direct more often it is a factor not mentioned openly -ut present in the -ac of statesmen,s minds.;GB Althou%hNye is ri%ht that such lina%e $ill %enerally -e implicit/ extensive analyses of declassi:ed documents -y historians sho$s that the#nited <tates directly used its overseas security commitments and military deployments to convince allies to chan%e their economic

policies to its -ene:t durin% the old 8ar.G6 0he #nited <tates, security commitments continue to -olster the pursuit of its economicinterests. Intervie$s $ith current and past #.<. administration o"cials reveal $ide a%reement that alliance t ies help %ain favora-leoutcomes on trade and other economic issues. 0o the uestion/ ;Does the alliance system pay dividends for America in nonsecurityareas/ such as economic relations9/; the typical ans$er in intervie$s is ;an uneuivocal yes.;G #.<. security commitments

sometimes enhance -ar%ainin% levera%e over the speci:c terms of economic a%reements and %ive other %overnments more %eneralincentives to enter into a%reements that -ene:t the #nited <tates economicallyCt$o recent examples -ein% the 3453 Morea@#nited<tates )ree 0rade A%reement 'M!R#< )0A7 and the #nited <tates@Australia )0A '$hich entered into force in 3447.GF !"cials acrossadministrations of di>erent parties stress that the desire of Morea and Australia to ti%hten their security relationships $ith the #nited<tates $as a core reason $hy 8ashin%ton $as a-le to enter into free UEnd Pa%e 6BV trade a%reements $ith them and to do so on

terms favora-le to #.<. economic interests. As one former o"cial indicates/ ;0he M!R#< )0ACand I $as involved in the initialplannin%C$as attractive to Morea in lar%e measure -ecause it $ould help to underpin the #<@R!M U<outh MoreaV alliance at a time of shiftin% po$er in the re%ion.;GQ Morean leaders, interest in maintainin% a stron% security relationship $ith the #nited <tates/ anotherformer o"cial stressed/ made them more $illin% to -e exi-le re%ardin% the terms of the a%reement -ecause ;failure $ould loo liea set-ac to the political and security relationship. !nce $e %ot into ne%otiations $ith the R!M/ loo at ho$ many times $e rene%edeven after $e si%ned a deal. . . . 8e ased for chan%es in la-or and environment clauses/ in auto clauses and the Moreans too itall.;GK #.<. security levera%e is economically -ene:cial in a second respect+ it can facilitate ;macrolevel structurin%; of the %lo-al

http://muse.jhu.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/journals/international_security/v037/37.3.brooks.html#f87

















economy. acrolevel structurin% is crucial -ecause so much of $hat the #nited <tates $ants from the economic order is simply;more of the same;Cit prefers the structure of the main international economic institutions such as the 8orld 0rade !r%anizationand the International onetary )und it prefers the existence of ;open re%ionalism; GG it prefers the dollar as the reserve currencyand so on. #.<. interests are thus $ell served to the extent that American allies favor the %lo-al economic status uo rather thanrevisions that could -e harmful to #.<. economic interests. !ne reason they are often inclined to tae this approach is -ecause oftheir security relationship $ith the #nited <tates. )or example/ intervie$s $ith #.<. o"cials stress that alliance ties %ive 8ashin%tonlevera%e and authority in the current stru%%le over multilateral %overnance institutions in Asia. As one o"cial noted/ ;!n the

economic side/ the existence of the security alliance contri-utes to an atmosphere of trust that ena-les the #nited <tates and 2apanto present a united front on shared economic %oalsCsuch as open marets and transparency/ for example/ throu%h APE UAsia@

Paci:c Economic ooperationV.;544 Oie$ise/ 2apan,s current interest in the 0rans@Paci:c Partnership/ the !-ama administration,smost important lon%@term economic initiative in East Asia/ is $idely understood to -e shaped less -y speci:c 2apanese UEnd Pa%e 66Veconomic interests than -y the -elief of ?oshihio Noda,s administration that it $ill stren%then alliance ties $ith the #nited<tates.545 As one former administration o"cial stressed/ this enhanced allied interest in supportin% #.<. favored economicframe$ors as a means of stren%thenin% security ties $ith the #nited <tates helps to ensure a%ainst any shift to ;a <ino@centricJnontransparentJmore mercantilist economic order in Asia.;543 0he #nited <tates, security levera%e over its allies matters even if itis not used actively to %arner support for its conception of the %lo-al economy and other economic issues. 0his is perhaps -est

illustrated -y the status of the dollar as the reserve currency/ $hich confers ma=or -ene:ts on the #nited <tates.54B )or manyanalysts/ the #.<. position as the leadin% superpo$er $ith $orld$ide security commitments is an important reason $hy the dollar$as esta-lished as the reserve currency and $hy it is liely to retain this status for a lon% time.546 In the past/ 8ashin%tonfreuently used direct security levera%e to %et its allies to support the dollar.54 0here are a num-er of su-tler mechanisms/ho$ever/ throu%h $hich the current #.<. %eopolitical position serves the same end. )irst/ Mathleen cNamara -uilds on the lo%ic offocal points to ar%ue that the #.<. %lo-al military role -olsters the lielihood that the dollar $ill lon% continue to -e the currency thatactors conver%e upon as the ;,natural, dominant currency.;54F <econd/ Norrlof emphasizes the si%ni:cance of a mechanism that#.<. o"cials also stress+ the #nited <tates, %eopolitical position %ives it the a-ility to constrain certain forms of Asian re%ionalism

that/ if they $ere to eventuate/ could help to promote movement a$ay from the dollar. 54Q 0hird/ Adam Posen emphasizes that theE#,s security dependence on the #nited <tates maes it less liely that the euro countries $ill develop a true UEnd Pa%e 6V %lo-al

military capacity and thus ;that the dollar $ill continue to -ene:t from the %eopolitical sources of its %lo-al role; in $ays that theeuro countries $ill never match.54K In sum/ the #nited <tates is a ey pillar of the %lo-al economy/

-ut it does not provide this service for free+ it also extracts disproportionate -ene:ts. #ndertain% retrenchment $ouldplace these -ene:ts at ris. Institutional *ene:ts 8hat %oes for the %lo-al economy also applies to lar%er patterns of

institutionalized cooperation. ere/ too/ the leadership ena-led -y the #nited <tates, %rand strate%yfosters cooperation that %enerates di>use -ene:ts for many states -ut often

disproportionately reects #.<. preferences. 0his -asic premise su-sumes three claims. )irst/ -ene:ts o$ to the #nited <tates frominstitutionalized cooperation to address a $ide ran%e of pro-lems. 0here is %eneral a%reement that a sta-le/ open/ and loosely rule@-ased international order serves the interests of the #nited <tates. Indeed/ $e are a$are of no serious studies su%%estin% that #.<.

interests $ould -e -etter advanced in a $orld that is closed 'i.e./ -uilt around -locs and spheres of inuence7 and devoid of -asic/a%reed@upon rules and institutions. As scholars have lon% ar%ued/ under conditions of risin% complex interdependence/ states often

can -ene:t from institutionalized cooperation.54G In the security realm/ ne$ly emer%in% threats ar%ua-ly

are producin% a rapid rise in the -ene:ts of such cooperation for the #nited <tates. <ome of these threats are

transnational and emer%e from environmental/ health/ and resource vulnera-ilities/such as those concernin% pandemics. 0ransnational nonstate %roups $ith various capacities for

violence have also -ecome salient in recent decades/ includin% %roups involved interrorism/ piracy/ and or%anized crime.554 UEnd Pa%e 6FV As is $idely ar%ued/ these sorts ofnontraditional/ transnational threats can -e realistically addressed only throu%hvarious types of collective action . #nless countries are prepared to radically restricttheir inte%ration into an increasin%ly %lo-alized $orld system/ the pro-lems must -esolved throu%h coordinated action. 553 In the face of these di>use and shiftin% threats/ the #nited<tates is %oin% to :nd itself needin% to $or $ith other states to an increasin%de%ree/ sharin% information/ -uildin% capacities/ and respondin% to crises.55B <econd/

#.<. leadership increases the prospects that such cooperation $ill emer%e in a manner

relatively favora-le to #.<. interests. !f course/ the prospects for cooperation are partly a function of compati-le interests. ?et

even $hen interests overlap/ scholars of all theoretical stripes have esta-lished thatinstitutionalized cooperation does not emer%e e>ortlessly+ %eneratin% a%reement onthe particular cooperative solution can often -e elusive. And $hen interests do not overlap/ the

-ar%ainin% -ecomes tou%her yet+ not =ust ho$/ -ut $hether cooperation $ill occur is on the ta-le. any factors a>ectthe initiation of cooperation/ and under various conditions states can and havecooperated $ithout he%emonic leadership.556 As noted a-ove/ ho$ever/ scholarsacno$led%e that the lielihood of cooperation drops in the a-sence of leadership.

)inally/ #.<. security commitments are an inte%ral component of this leadership. istorically/ as 1ilpin and other theorists ofhe%emonic order have sho$n/ the -ac%round security and sta-ility that the #nited <tates provided facilitated the creation of
























multilateral institutions for on%oin% cooperation across policy areas.55 As in the case of the %lo-al economy/ #.<. security provisionUEnd Pa%e 6QV plays a role in fosterin% sta-ility $ithin and across re%ions/ and this has an impact on the a-ility of states to en%a%e ininstitutional cooperation. Institutional cooperation is least liely in areas of the $orld $here insta-ility is pervasive. It is more lielyto ourish in areas $here states are secure and leaders can anticipate sta-le and continuous relationsC$here the ;shado$ of thefuture; is most evident. And -ecause of the ey security role it plays in fosterin% this institutional cooperation/ the #nited <tates is in

a stron%er position to help shape the contours of these cooperative e>orts. 0he # nited < tates, extended systemof security commitments creates a set of institutional relationships that foster

political communication. Alliance institutions are in the :rst instance a-out security protection/ -ut they are alsomechanisms that provide a ind of ;political architecture; that is useful -eyond narro$ issues of military a>airs. Alliances -ind statesto%ether and create institutional channels of communication. NA0! has facilitated ties and associated institutionsCsuch as theAtlantic ouncilCthat increase the a-ility of the #nited <tates and Europe to tal to each other and do -usiness.55F Oie$ise/ the-ilateral alliances in East Asia also play a communication role -eyond narro$ security issues. onsultations and exchan%es spill overinto other policy areas.55Q )or example/ $hen #.<. o"cials travel to <eoul to consult on alliance issues/ they also routinely tala-out other pendin% issues/ such as/ recently/ the Morea@#nited <tates )ree 0rade A%reement and the 0rans@Paci:c Partnership. 0his%ives the #nited <tates the capacity to $or across issue areas/ usin% assets and -ar%ainin% chips in one area to mae pro%ress inanother. It also provides more di>use political -ene:ts to cooperation that o$ from the ;voice opportunities; created -y thesecurity alliance architecture.55K 0he alliances provide channels and access points for $ider o$s of communicationCand UEnd

Pa%e 6KV the -ene:ts of %reater political solidarity and institutional cooperation that follo$. 0he -ene:ts of thesecommunication o$s cut across all international issues/ -ut are ar%ua-ly enhanced$ith respect to %enerat in% security cooperation to deal $ith ne$ inds of threats Csuch as terrorism and health pandemicsCthat reuire a multitude of novel -ar%ainsand ne$ly esta-lished procedures of shared responsi-ilities amon% a $ide ran%e of

countries. 8ith the existin% #.<.@led security system in place/ the #nited <tates is in a stron%er position than it other$ise $ould

-e to strie -ar%ains and share -urdens of security cooperation in such areas. 0he challen%e of risin% security interdependence is%reater security cooperation. 0hat is/ $hen countries are increasin%ly mutually vulnera-le to nontraditional/ di>use/ transnationalthreats/ they need to $or to%ether to eradicate the conditions that allo$ for these threats and limit the dama%e. 0he #.<.@ledalliance system is a platform $ith already existin% capacities and routines for security cooperation. 0hese assets can -e used or

adapted/ savin% the cost of %eneratin% security cooperation from scratch. In short/ havin% an institution in place to facilitatecooperation on one issue maes it easier/ and more liely/ that the participatin% states $ill -e a-le to achieve cooperation rapidly ona related issue.55G 0he usefulness of the #.<. alliance system for %eneratin% enhanced non@security cooperation is con:rmed inintervie$s $ith former <tate Department and National <ecurity ouncil o"cials. !ne former administration o"cial noted/ usin% theexamples of Australia and <outh Morea/ that the security ties ;create nonsecurity -ene:ts in terms of support for %lo-al a%endaissues/; such as Af%hanistan/ openha%en/ disaster relief/ and the :nancial crisis. ;0his is not security levera%e per se/ -ut it is anindication of ho$ the deepness of the security relationship creates $orin% relationships UandV interopera-ility that can then -elevera%ed to address other re%ional issues.; 0his o"cial notes/ ;8e could not have or%anized the ore 1roup 'India/ #.<./ Australia/

2apan7 in UEnd Pa%e 6GV response to the 3446 tsunami $ithout the deep -ilateral military relationships that had already -een in

place. It $as much easier for us to or%anize $ith these countries almost immediately '$ithin forty@ei%ht hours7 than anyone else fora lar%e@scale humanitarian operation -ecause our militaries $ere accustomed to each other.;534 0he #nited <tates, role as securityprovider also has a more direct e>ect of enhancin% its authority and capacity to initiate institutional cooperation in various policy

areas. 0he fact that the #nited <tates is a security patron of 2apan/ <outh Morea/ and other countries in East Asia/ for example/ %ivesit a $ei%ht and presence in re%ional diplomacy over the shape and scope of multilateral cooperation not =ust $ithin the re%ion -utalso else$here. 0his does not mean that the #nited <tates al$ays $ins these diplomatic encounters/ -ut its levera%e is %reater thanit $ould -e if the #nited <tates $ere purely an o>shore %reat po$er $ithout institutionalized security ties to the re%ion. In sum/ the

deep en%a%ement strate%y ena-les #.<. leadership/ $hich results in morecooperation on matters of importance than $ould occur if the #nited <tatesdisen%a%edCeven as it pushes cooperation to$ard #.<. preferences.

The plan solves—natural gas production is key tomanufacturing competitiveness and economic gro#thCarey 1! – 2ulie . arey is an ener%y economist $ith Navi%ant Economics $ho provides consultin% and testifyin% services

Navi%antHs unconventional oil and %as o>erin%s include advisory services for strate%ic -usiness decision analysis/ construction rismana%ement/ economic and antitrust analyses/ investment -anin%/ restructurin% advisory services/ and expert services for

disputes and investi%ations. '(o$ #nconventional !il And 1as Is <uperchar%in% 0he #.<. Economy/http+JJ$$$.for-es.comJsitesJener%ysourceJ3453J53J5BJho$@unconventional@oil@and@%as@is@transformin%@the@u@s@economyJ/ Decem-er5B/ 34537

ItHs an excitin% time to -e in the ener%y industry in America. 0he impact of unconventional oil and %asdevelopment on the #.<. economy is considera-le/ $ith potentially hundreds of-illions of dollars in investments/ millions of ne$ =o-s/ and a renaissance of American

in%enuity and innovation. In thinin% a-out $hat is to come/ looin% -ac :ve years helps set thesta%e. 2anuary 344K+ 0he ener%y sector $as facin% the %reat recession/ hi%h current and future expected natural %as

prices/ and =o- losses to hina. 0here $as a %enerally poor outloo for the ener%y industry and the





http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/13/how-unconventional-oil-and-gas-is-transforming-the-u-s-economy/








economy. )e$ could have predicted the chan%es that $ere to come. #nforeseen happenin%s include the North Daota oil rush/liue:ed natural %as facilities -ein% used as export facilities 'instead of as import facilities as ori%inally planned7/ railroads haulin%crude oil/ and =o-s comin% -ac from hina. And/ this is =ust the -e%innin%. 0he commencement of the crude oil and natural %asrevolution can -e -oiled do$n to one simple euation+ <urprise <ide E>ect !f <hale 1as *oom+ A Plun%e In #.<. 1reenhouse 1asEmissions )or-es <ta> ontri-utor A-undant resources W cost e>ective extraction X hi%h production levels of unconventional oil and%as. 0he net e>ect is a reshapin% of the #.<. ener%y industry and our economy. Additionally/ the countryHs increased reliance onnatural %as 'displacin% coal7 has already -ene:ted the environment/ and $ill continue to do so in the future. ar-on emissions hit a

34@year lo$ 'in the :rst uarter 3453 accordin% to EIA7 and some industry o-servers -elieve that the #.<. could meet the Myotoa%reement standards -y 3434 'even thou%h the #.<. did not si%n it7. 0he emer%ence of unconventional oil and %as $ill have

tremendous impacts on -oth the ener%y industry and the economy. 0he outloo for unconventional %as is exceptionally -ri%htC$ithexpectations for relatively lo$ future natural %as prices/ enou%h supply to meet domestic needs/ and surplus enou%h to export toother countries. 8hile the unconventional oil story continues to unfold and evolve/ an a-undance of domestic crude oil is expected.And/ thus/ an opportunity to not only si%ni:cantly reduce the countryHs dependence on oil imports/ -ut to also increase ener%ysecurity. urrently/ crude oil prices are out of -alance as ne$ supply re%ions are isolated/ main% it di"cult to %et crude oil tomaret. 0hat is expected to chan%e once the necessary infrastructure is -uilt to handle the ne$@found supply. As a result of theseinfrastructure needs/ and the tremendous opportunities associated $ith unconventional oil and %as/ #.<. economic activity is risin%.

Risin% levels of economic activity can -e divided into three distinct -ut overlappin% $aves of capital investment. 0he :rst $ave ofcapital investment tar%ets ne$ and expandin% oil and %as production areas. <ustained investment in the upstream sector – includin%$ellheads/ drillin% and production – $ill -e reuired to eep pace $ith increases in demand for the foreseea-le future. 0he second$ave of investment $ill focus on infrastructure to address ne$ supply locations/ deliverin% the product to maret/ and capitalizin%on the near term opportunities arisin% from lo$er ener%y costs. *illions of dollars of investments speci:cally tar%etin% capitalpro=ects in this $ave are -ein% announced $eely. <u-stantial investment in crude oil/ natural %as and natural %as liuids pipelines$ill -e reuired in order to -uild/ expand/ and reverse pipelines to address the ne$ supply source locations. Natural %as processin%plants that separate natural %as liuids 'N1O7 from natural %as $ill -e reuired to address the %ro$in% production levels and ne$

supply re%ions. In addition/ ON1 facilities $ill -e%in to export natural %as/ and there is a potential opportunity for natural %as@to@diesel plants. In addition to these traditional areas of investment/ creative maret solutions are also emer%in%/ such as rail

transportation of crude oil. 8hile railroads may serve primarily as a near to mid@term solution in the $ae of lon%@lead time pipelinesolutions/ they are nim-le competitors $ith small capital reuirements that can -e uicly deployed to utilize the countryHs far@reachin% rail net$ors. 8ith only a fe$ years needed to recover capital costs on investment/ the competitive landscape chan%es andrail transportation rates could -e reduced after pipelines enter the maret to eep railroads competitive and still pro:ta-le. 0hese

factors su%%est that railroads could -e in the crude oil transportation -usiness for the lon% haul. Durin% this second $ave/ there$ill -e a manufacturin% resur%ence/ in part -ecause of lo$er expected ener%y costs .!ther macroeconomic factors $ill also -e at $orCincludin% relative improvementin #.<. la-or rates as la-or marets ti%hten in hina and other countries. Petrochemical plants $ill-ecome cost e>ective competitors in the $orld$ide maret and $ill -e a si%ni:cantcomponent of the manufacturin% investment story. anufacturin% facilities $ill -e -uilt to manufacture

pipes/ drill -its/ valves and other reuired infrastructure materials. In addition/ other manufacturin% plants $ill liely -e -uilt solely as a play on the expectation of relatively lo$ ener%y costs intothe future. <uch suspects could include those $hose ener%y costs are lar%e portion

of production costs+ semiconductors/ plastics/ and OD televisions. 0he trend includes linin%

production and ener%y resources in an e"cient manner/ and movin% production closer to maret demand in order to minimizetransportation related costs. 0he last $ave of investment – $hich $onHt -e%in to heat up for a fe$ years – focuses on the consumersse%ment. In this $ave/ additional natural %as@:red po$er plants $ill -e -uilt to replace retirin% coal plants and meet future increasesin demand. !f course/ ne$ %as :red po$er plants $ill initially -e -uilt in re%ions $ith less excess capacity 'post coal plant

retirement7. Another impact of #.<. unconventional oil and %as development $ill -e increased in electricity demand 'occurrin% moredramatically in various localized pocets7/ directly resultin% from investment in $aves one and t$o. Ne$ production areas andlocations for processin% and manufacturin% plants $ill o-serve hi%her load %ro$th. )or example/ localized areas $ithin the *aenre%ion expect ener%y demand to dou-le in the next :ve years. As a result of very speci:c chan%es to the economic activity andcorrespondin% ener%y consumption levels/ a more %ranular analyses $ill -e reuired than is previously provided -y traditional loadforecastin% methods. 0his third $ave $ill also see a si%ni:cant num-er of ne$ heavy@duty natural %as vehicles/ includin% -us andtruc eets. 1reater reliance on natural %as@fueled li%ht duty vehicles is possi-le -ut $ill reuire more time due to %reaterinfrastructure reuirements and technolo%ical innovation. !ther creative opportunities -ein% explored include natural %as pumps'hooed up to the home7 to fuel natural %as vehicles/ and li%ht duty vehicles relyin% on fuel cells '$hich manufacturers hope to

-e%in -uildin% -y 3457. 8hile itHs not currently clear $ho the $inners $ill -e/ itHs safe to say that positive maret forces and ampleopportunity $ill lead to innovative solutions. 0he near@term outloo for total capital investment 'from primarily :rst and second $avepro=ects7 is immense. 0he ta-le -elo$ provides a snapshot analysis of the short term outloo 'throu%h 34347 for domestic 'lo$er 6K

state7 -ased capital investment. 0hese estimates are conservative and -ased lar%ely on pu-licly reported company -usiness plans.)or example/ 0a-le 5 includes only a portion of expected #.<. ON1 pro=ects %oin% for$ard/ as compared to the full list of D!Eapplications. 0he estimate also excludes the massive F -illion proposed Alasa pipelineJexport facility pro=ect and third $aveinvestments tar%etin% natural %as :red po$er plants and natural %as vehicles. Even $ith =ust a portion of total investment included/the conservative estimate of short term investment reaches more than B44 -illion. Estimate of #.<. #nconventional !il and 1as

apital Expenditures and 2o- reation '0hrou%h 34347 0hese investments have a hu%e economic impacton the #.<. economyCimpactin% =o-s/ economic %ro$th and ener%y security. <ome studiesindicate that the #.<. has avoided retreatin% into an economic recession as a resultof activity in the unconventional oil and %as sector. Production areas for unconventional oil and %as have o-served

very lo$ unemployment and stron%er 1DP and tax revenues as compared to the rest of the #.<. As a result of the si%ni:cant near

http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2012/12/07/surprise-side-effect-of-shale-gas-boom-a-plunge-in-u-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions/







term investments associated $ith unconventional oil and %as/ itHs possi-le that up to B. million =o-s $ill -ecreated from the infrastructure -uild out and related opportunities 'includin% -oth direct and indirect =o-s7.

The economy is on the brink—lo# prices revitali+emanufacturing and stabili+e the recovery

,uesterberg 1! – 0om Duester-er% is an Executive Director of the anufacturin% and <ociety in the 35st enturypro%ram at the Aspen Institute. Previous positions include the Director of the 8ashin%ton !"ce of 0he udson Institute/ the

Assistant <ecretary for International Economic Policy at the #.<. Department of ommerce/ chief of sta> to t$o mem-ers ofon%ress/ and an associate instructor at <tanford #niversity. e holds a *.A. from Princeton and an . A. and a Ph.D. from Indiana.'(Impact of the Ener%y *oom on #< anufacturin%/

http+JJ$$$.aspeninstitute.or%Ja-outJ-lo%Jimpact@ener%y@-oom@us@manufacturin%7

0he manufacturin% sector has -een leadin% the #< economic recovery since the end of the 1reat

Recession in 344G. !ne of the ey drivers in the manufacturin% recovery is the renaissance indomestic production of natural %as and/ to a lesser extent/ oil. !n Novem-er 3K/ the InstituteHs pro%ram on

anufacturin% and <ociety in the 35st entury $ill host an event explorin% the rami:cations of recent developments in ener%y and

manufacturin%/ and the sustaina-ility of the production -oom for the future. 1ro$th in domestic ener%yproduction/ driven -y the deployment of ne$ exploration and drillin% technolo%ies/ has -een an economicturnin% point in the #< for a num-er of reasons. Not the least of these is the possi-ility of reachin% the #<H

lon%@term %oal of ener%y independence/ a %oal $hich ar%ua-ly has already -een reached/ if North America is considered the properunit for determinin% independence. 0he su-stitution of natural %as for coal in electricity production and process heat in

manufacturin%/ as $ell as the %ro$in% use of natural %as in transportation/ also contri-ute to lo$erin% %reenhouse %as emissions. 0he Department of Ener%yHs estimates of future car-on emissions sho$ a FG percent drop in expected emissions from 3443 to 34B4

compared to pro=ections from 5GG4. )inally/ overall economic %ro$th is stren%thened considera-ly -ythe ener%y -oom . Not only is the #nited <tates producin% more ener%y/ it $ill also -e -uildin% more

petrochemical re:neries/ $ill supply the euipment needed to -uild the exploration andre:nin% infrastructure/ and almost every ener%y userCfrom households to lar%e manufacturersC$ill -ene:t from more

secure supplies and lo$er costs. anufacturin% is at a pivotal point in this emer%in% ener%yeconomy. It uses a-out one@third of all ener%y produced in the #nited <tates/ solo$er prices and more secure supply %ive almost all :rms in the sector acompetitive advanta%e over :rms in other nations. Relative to the #nited <tates/ the spot price of

natural %as is nearly three times more expensive in Europe and four times more expensive in most of Asia. 0his advanta%e is

especially important in the chemicals industry/ $hich is the second lar%est su-sector of #< manufacturin%. Natural %as andassociated liuids represent over K4 percent of the feedstoc for #< re:neries/ $hereas in Europe and Asia the ratios are rou%hly

t$o@thirds oil and one@third natural %as. 8hen the price di>erential -et$een natural %as and oil istaen into account/ the advanta%e to the American chemicals sector comes intomuch sharper relief. 0he #< manufacturin% sector -ene:ts in many other $ays+lo$er process heat costs/ a %lo-ally competitive advanta%e in -uildin% the ener%yand re:nery infrastructure driving the renaissance / and the sta-ility of supply$hich $ill help attract long-term investment in su-sectors lie steel/ %lass/aluminum/ and metal $orin%. )inally/ a lar%er share of 1DP for a %ro$in% manufacturin% sector helps to improve

livin% standards/ since productivity %ro$th is so stron% in this sector. <ince 5GGK/ manufacturin% productivity has %ro$n at an annual

rate of B. percent/ over t$ice as much as the 5.6 percent in the services sector. In the last fe$ decades/ manufacturin% @@

$hich faces steadily %ro$in% forei%n competition and must innovate to protect its maret share @@ has steadily improved

the ener%y e"ciency of production. 0otal car-on emissions in this sector have fallen -y nearly one@fourth since

5GGK/ even thou%h total output has increased -y a-out a third. As a result/ car-on emissions per dollar of output in manufacturin%

have fallen -y BF percent since 5GGK/ compared to only 34 percent in the overall economy. 0his is due in part to thesubstitution of natural gas/ in part due to productivity increases/ and in part due to hi%her use of rene$a-le

ener%yCmanufacturin% uses G4 percent more rene$a-les than the transportation sector.

Manufacturing is critical to the economy—ensures resiliencyand prevents collapse.ttlinger 11 – ichael Ettlin%er is the Sice President for Economic Policy at the enter for American Pro%ress. Prior to

http://www.aspeninstitute.org/about/blog/impact-energy-boom-us-manufacturing

http://www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/manufacturing

http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2012/11/28/impact-energy-renaissance-us-manufacturing


http://www.aspeninstitute.org/about/blog/impact-energy-boom-us-manufacturing

http://www.aspeninstitute.org/policy-work/manufacturing




=oinin% the enter/ he spent six years at the Economic Policy Institute directin% the Economic Analysis and Research Net$or. '(0heImportance and Promise of American anufacturin%+ 8hy It atters if 8e ae It in America and 8here 8e <tand 0oday/http+JJ$$$.americanpro%ress.or%J$p@contentJuploadsJissuesJ3455J46JpdfJmanufacturin%.pdf7

anufacturin% is critically important to the American economy. )or %enerations/ the

stren%th of our country rested on the po$er of our factory oorsC-oth the machines and the men and $omen $ho $ored them.8e need manufacturin% to continue to -e a -edroc of stren%th for %enerations to come. anufacturin% is $oven into the structure

of our economy+ Its importance %oes far -eyond $hat happens -ehind the factory %ates. 0he stren%th or $eaness

of American manufacturin% carries implications for the entire economy/ our national

security/ and the $ell@-ein% of all Americans. anufacturin% today accounts for 53 percent of the #.<.

economy and a-out 55 percent of the private@sector $orforce. *ut its si%ni:cance is even %reater than these num-ers $ould

su%%est. 0he direct impact of manufacturin% is only a part of the picture. )irst/ =o-s in the manufacturin% sector are %ood middle@

class =o-s for mill ions of Americans. 0hose =o-s serve an important role/ o>erin% economic opportunity to hard@$orin%/ middle@sill$orers. 0his creates up$ard mo-ility and -roadens and stren%thens the middle class to the -ene:t of the entire economy. 8hatHs

more/ #.<.@-ased manufacturin% underpins a broad range of $obs that are uitedi>erent from the usual ima%e of manufacturin%. 0hese are hi%her@sill service =o-s

that include the accountants/ -aners/ and la$yers that are associated $ith any industry/ as $ell as a -road ran%e of other =o-s includin% -asic research and technolo%y development/ product and process en%ineerin% and

desi%n/ operations and maintenance/ transportation/ testin%/ and la- $or. any of these =o-s arecritical to American technolo%y and innovation leadership. 0he pro-lem today is this+ any

multinational corporations may for a period eep these hi%her@sill =o-s here at home $hile they move -asic manufacturin%else$here in response to other countriesH su-sidies/ the search for cheaper la-or costs/ and the desire for more direct access to

overseas marets/ -ut eventually many of these service =o-s $ill follo$. 8hen the -asic manufacturin% leaves/the feedback loop from the manufacturin% oor to the rest of a manufacturin%operationCa critical element in the innovative processCis eventually -roen. 0o maintain that feed-acloop/ companies need to move hi%her@sill =o-s to $here they do theirmanufacturin%. And $ith those =o-s %oes American leadership in technolo%y andinnovation. 0his is $hy havin% a critical mass of -oth manufacturin% and associated service =o-s in the #nited <tates matters.

0he (industrial commons that comes from the crossfertilization and en%a%ement of a community of experts in industry/ academia/and %overnment is vital to our nationHs economic competitiveness. anufacturin% also is important for the nationHs economicsta-ility. 0he experience of the 1reat Recession exempli:es this point. Althou%h manufacturin% plun%ed in 344K and early 344Galon% $ith the rest of the economy/ it is on the re-ound today $hile other ey economic sectors/ such as construction/ still lan%uish.

Diversity in the economy is importantCand manufacturin% is a particularly

important part of the mix. Althou%h manufacturin% is certainly a>ected -y -roader economic events/ the sectorHsinternal diversityCsupplyin% consumer %oods as $ell as industrial %oods/ servin% -oth domestic and external maretsC %ives it

%reat potential resiliency. )inally/ supplyin% our o$n needs throu%h a stron% domestic manufacturin%sector protects us from international economic and political disruptions. 0his is most

o-viously important in the realm of national security/ even narro$ly de:ned as matters related to military stren%th/ $here the ris of

a $ea manufacturin% capa-ility is o-vious. *ut overreliance on imports and su-stantialmanufacturin% trade de:cits $eaen us in many $ays/ main% us vulnera-le toeverythin% from exchan%e rate uctuations to trade em-ar%oes to natural disasters.

.conomic collapse causes global nuclear #ar(arris and %urro#s &/ – 2ennifer arris is a counselor in the National Intelli%ence ouncil and the principal

drafter of 1lo-al 0rends 343. athe$ 2. *urro$s is a mem-er of the NIHs Oon% Ran%e Analysis #nit. '(Revisitin% the )uture+1eopolitical E>ects of the )inancial risis/ 8ashin%ton Yuarterly/ http+JJ$$$.t$.comJ4GaprilJdocsJ4GaprZ-urro$s.pdf7

!f course/ the report encompasses more than economics and indeed -elieves the future is liely to -e the result of a num-er ofintersectin% and interlocin% forces. 8ith so many possi-le permutations of outcomes/ each $ith ample opportunity for unintended

conseuences/ there is a %ro$in% sense of insecurity. Even so/ history may -e more instructive than ever. 8hile $econtinue to -elieve that the 1reat Depression is not liely to -e repeated/ the lessonsto -e dra$n from that period include the harmful e>ects on ed%lin% democracies andmultiethnic societies 'thin entral Europe in 5G34s and 5GB4s7 and on the sustaina-ility of multilateral institutions

'thin Oea%ue of Nations in the same period7. 0here is no reason to thin that this $ould not -e true in the



t$enty@:rst as much as in the t$entieth century. )or that reason/ the $ays in $hich the potentialfor %reater conict could %ro$ $ould seem to -e even more apt in a constantly volatileeconomic environment as they $ould -e if chan%e $ould -e steadier. In surveyin% those riss/ the report stressed the

lielihood that terrorism and nonproliferation $ill remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international a%enda. 0errorismHs appeal $ill decline if economic %ro$th continues in the iddle East and youth unemployment is reduced. )or thoseterrorist %roups that remain active in 343/ ho$ever/ the di>usion of technolo%ies and scienti:c no$led%e $ill place some of the

$orldHs most dan%erous capa-ilities $ithin their reach. 0errorist %roups in 343 $ill liely -e a com-ination of

descendants of lon% esta-lished %roups inheritin% or%anizational structures/ command and control processes/ and trainin%procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacs and ne$ly emer%ent collections of the an%ry and disenfranchised that

-ecome self@radicalized/ particularly in the a-sence of economic outlets that $ould -ecome narro$er in an economicdo$nturn. 0he most dan%erous casualty of any economically@induced dra$do$n of #.<. military presence

$ould almost certainly -e the iddle East. Althou%h IranHs acuisition of nuclear $eapons is not inevita-le/ $orriesa-out a nuclear@armed Iran could lead states in the re%ion to develop ne$ securityarran%ements $ith external po$ers/ acuire additional $eapons/ and consider pursuin%

their o$n nuclear am-itions . It is not clear that the type of sta-le deterrent relationship

that existed -et$een the %reat po$ers for most of the old 8ar $ould emer%e naturally in the iddle East $ith a

nuclear Iran. Episodes of lo$ intensity conict and terrorism tain% place under a nuclear um-rella could lead to an unintendedescalation and -roader conict if clear red lines -et$een those states involved are not $ell esta-lished. 0he close proximity ofpotential nuclear rivals com-ined $ith underdeveloped surveillance capa-ilities and mo-ile dual@capa-le Iranian missile systems

also $ill produce inherent di"culties in achievin% relia-le indications and $arnin% of an impendin% nuclear attac. 0he lac ofstrate%ic depth in nei%h-orin% states lie Israel/ short $arnin% and missile i%ht times/ anduncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather thandefense/ potentially leadin% to escalatin% crises. 0ypes of conict that the $orldcontinues to experience/ such as over resources/ could reemer%e/ particularly ifprotectionism %ro$s and there is a resort to neo@mercantilist practices. Perceptionsof rene$ed ener%y scarcity $ill drive countries to tae actions to assure their futureaccess to ener%y supplies. In the $orst case/ this could result in interstate conicts if

%overnment leaders deem assured access to ener%y resources/ for example/ to -e essential for maintainin% domestic sta-ility and

the survival of their re%ime. Even actions short of $ar/ ho$ever/ $ill have important %eopolitical implications. aritimesecurity concerns are providin% a rationale for naval -uildups and modernization e>orts/ such as hinaHs and

IndiaHs development of -lue $ater naval capa-ilities. If the :scal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns in$ard/ one of the

most o-vious fundin% tar%ets may -e military. *uildup of re%ional naval capa-ilities could lead to

increased tensions/rivalries/ and counter-alancin% moves/ -ut it also $ill create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protectin% critical

sea lanes. 8ith $ater also -ecomin% scarcer in Asia and the iddle East/ cooperation to mana%e chan%in% $ater resources is liely

to -e increasin%ly di"cult -oth $ithin and -et$een states in a more do%@eat@do% $orld.



1AC 0arming0arming is real and anthropogenic --- positive feedbacks

means it #ill accelerateNuccitelli 14 @@@ masterHs de%ree in physics/ an environmental scientist and ris

assessor '5JGJ56/ Dana/ (1lo-al $armin% is -ein% caused -y humans/ not the sun/and is hi%hly sensitive to car-on/ ne$ research sho$s/http+JJ$$$.the%uardian.comJenvironmentJclimate@consensus@GQ@per@centJ3456J=anJ4GJ%lo-al@$armin%@humans@not@sun/ RE7

!ver the past fe$ $ees/ several important ne$ papers related to human vs.natural climate chan%e have -een pu-lished. 0hese papers add clarity to the causesof climate chan%e/ and ho$ much %lo-al $armin% $e can expect in the future. )irst/a paper pu-lished in the 2ournal of limate -y 2ara Im-ers/ Ana Oopez/ hris untin%ford/ and yles

Allen examines the recent 23CC statement that epressed #ith /5 percentcondence that humans are the main cause of the current global #arming 6!ne of the main challen%es in attri-utin% the causes of %lo-al $armin% lies in the representation of the natural

internal varia-ility of the Earth,s climate. 0he study used t$o very di>erent representations of natural varia-ility. 0he :rst model assumed that the present climate has a short and :nite memory/ and is mostly determined -y the

recent past. 0he second model assumed that the climate,s internal varia-ility has lon% memory and the present

climate is inuenced -y all the previous years. 0he authors then incorporated each of these representations ofnatural varia-ility $ith a statistical approach to estimate the individual contri-utions of the various factors 'e.%. the

sun/ volcanoes/ %reenhouse %ases7 to the increase in avera%e %lo-al surface temperature. In each case/ the study

found that the %reenhouse %as@%lo-al $armin% si%nal $as statistically si%ni:cant/ supportin% thero-ustness of the IP statement on human@caused %lo-al $armin%. As lead author

2ara Im-ers told me/ ;...$e investi%ate t$o extreme cases of the plausi-le temporal structures of the

internal varia-ility/ and $e :nd that the anthropo%enic si%nal is ro-ust and si%ni:cant.; <econd/ a paperpu-lished in Nature 1eoscience -y Andre$ <churer/ <imon 0ett/ and 1a-riele e%erlinvesti%ates the sun,s inuence on %lo-al climate chan%es over the past 5/444years. Althou%h $e no$ the sun can,t -e causin% the current %lo-al $armin% -ecause solar activity has declined

sli%htly over the past 4 years/ ;it,s the sun; nevertheless remains one of the most popular climate contrarian

ar%uments. o$ever/ in recent years/ research has pointed in the direction of arelatively small solar impact on the Earth,s climate chan%es. It,s important to realize that

$hile the Earth is -om-arded -y a lot of heat from the sun/ the amount of solar ener%y reachin% the planet is

relatively sta-le. Accordin% to the -est recent estimates/ it,s only increased -y a-out 4.5 percent over the past B44years/ causin% a %lo-al ener%y im-alance less than 54 percent as lar%e as that caused -y humans over the same

period. In this study/ the authors tested reconstructions that incorporated relatively lar%e and small chan%es in solar

activity/ and compared them to northern hemisphere temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. 0hereconstruction usin% a stron%er solar inuence '%reen7 $as a $orse :t to the temperature data '-lue7 than the

reconstruction $ith the $eaer solar inuence 'red7/ especially around the 53th century. As in the Im-ers paper/ this

study used a statistical approach to determine the contri-ution of each factor in the measured temperature

chan%es. 0he authors conclude/ ;Solcanic and 11 U%reenhouse %asV forcin%s seem to contri-ute most to pre@t$entieth@century climate varia-ility/ $hereas the contri-ution -y solar forcin% is modest/ a%reein% $ith the

simulations $ith lo$ solar forcin%.; The study nds that the sun is unlikely to have

caused more than &6157C of the observed approimately 17C #arming overthe past *&& years. 0he authors :nd a detecta-le %reenhouse %as inuence onthe climate -efore the 34th century/ and consistent $ith the IP and Im-ers/ theyconclude that humans are the dominant cause of recent global #arming.89ver the t#entieth century anthropogenic forcings dominate #ith :(:sthe largest forcing o;set by the e;ect of anthropogenic aerosols and landuse changes8 o$ever/ the authors note that $hile the sun has little impact on avera%ehemispheric and %lo-al temperatures/ it does have a si%ni:cant inuence on re%ional temperatures/

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jan/09/global-warming-humans-not-sun






for example in Europe. )inally/ a paper pu-lished in Nature -y <teven <her$ood/ <andrine *ony/ and 2ean@Oouis

Dufresne examines the role that clouds $ill play in the sensitivity of the %lo-al climate to theincreased %reenhouse e>ect. 0o this point/ cloud responses to global #arminghave remained a key uncertainty6 8e no$ that a dou-lin% of the amount ofcar-on dioxide in the atmosphere $ill cause a -it more than 5[ %lo-al surface$armin% -y itself/ and $e no$ that there are several feedbacks that #ill

amplify that #arming. 0he amount of $ater vapor in the atmosphere – another%reenhouse %as – increases as the planet $arms/ amplifyin% that $armin% . 0his is thesin%le lar%est feed-ac/ and is increasin% as climate scientists expect. 8e also no$ that

meltin% ice maes the planet less reective / causin% it to a-sor- more sunli%ht/ alsoamplifyin% %lo-al $armin%. And car-on released from various sources lie -eneathmeltin% permafrost and from -urnin% peatlands $ill also increase the %reenhousee>ect as another positive feed-ac in a $armin% $orld. o$ever/ $e no$ of fe$si%ni:cant ne%ative feed-acs that $ill o>set these e>ects and dampen %lo-al$armin%. 0he recless contrarian approach is dependent upon the climate -ein%relatively insensitive to the increased %reenhouse e>ect/ $hich reuires that somethin% o>set

all of these $armin% feed-acs. louds/ $hose responses in a $armin% $orld have -een di"cult to pin do$n/ $ere

the contrarians, last and -est hope. An increase in cloud cover in response to %lo-al $armin%$ould reect more sunli%ht -ac out to space/ there-y coolin% the Earth ando>settin% some of those positive $armin% feed-acs. 0he authors of the Nature study

examined cloud chan%e simulations in relatively lo$ and hi%h sensitivity climate models. As summarized -y Ro-

Paintin%/ they found that the less sensitive models $ere incorrectly simulatin% $ater vapor-ein% dra$n up to hi%her levels of the atmosphere to form clouds in a $armer$orld. In reality '-ased on o-servations7 $armin% of the lo$er atmosphere pulls $ater vapor a$ay from those

hi%her cloud@formin% levels of the atmosphere and the amount of cloud formation there actually decreases/

resulting in another amplifying global #arming feedback . Oead author <teven

<her$ood descri-es the study in the video -elo$. 0hese results are consistent $ith )asullo & 0ren-erth '34537/ $ho

found that only the hi%her sensitivity climate models correctly simulated dryin% in ey cloud@formin% re%ions of the

atmosphere. Oie$ise/ preliminary results -y scientists at the alifornia Institute of 0echnolo%y 2et PropulsionOa-oratory presented at the 345B A1# meetin% sho$ed that hi%her sensitivity models do the -est =o- simulatin%

o-served cloud chan%es. 0hese results are also consistent $ith Oauer et al. '34547 and lement et al. '344G7/ $hichlooed at cloud chan%es in the Paci:c/ :ndin% the o-servations consistent $ith a positive cloud feed-ac. 0o summarize/ the evidence that humans are the dominant cause of the current %lo-al$armin% is over$helmin% '$hich is the reason -ehind the GQ percent expertconsensus7/ and continues to %ro$. And $hile the media has lately tended to focus on the fe$ papers

that su%%est climate sensitivity is relatively lo$/ there is a %ro$in% -ody of evidence -ased on cloud o-servations

that it,s actually on the hi%h end/ a-ove B[ $armin% in response to dou-led !3/ $hich under -usiness as usual

$ould lead to more than 6[ $armin% -y 3544 – a potentially catastrophic scenario. 2n short < it=s us it=sbad and if #e don=t change course it=s a potential catastrophe6

>ene#ables can?t solve alone < intermittency costcompetitiveness tech- only a s#itch to gas allo#s a

sustainable energy source to reduce emissions in themeantimeTrembath et al 1* 'Alex/ policy analyst in the Ener%y and limate Pro%ram at *reathrou%h Institute/

$here he researches and $rites a-out rene$a-le ener%y technolo%ies/ American federal ener%y policy and the

history of pu-lic investments in technolo%ical innovation/ and ax Oue/ policy associate in the Ener%y and limatePro%ram at *reathrou%h/ $here his research focused on a ran%e of ener%y issues and topics includin% nuclear

po$er/ natural %as/ rene$a-les/ ener%y e"ciency re-ound and -ac:re/ national ener%y su-sidies/ and electricity

systems/ $ith ichael <hellen-er%er and 0ed Nordhaus/ (oal Miller+ o$ Natural 1as )uels the lean Ener%yRevolution/ http+JJthe-reathrou%h.or%Jima%esJmainZima%eJ*reathrou%hZInstituteZoalZMiller.pdf7



Primarily as a result of the shift from coal to %as/ ener%y@related car-on emissionshave declined more in the #< than in any other country in the $orld in recent years/ from

F.F -illion tons in 344Q to .G -illion tons in 3453. 0he Department of Ener%y and EIA pro=ect that total 3434 ener%y@

related ! emissions $ill -e G percent lo$er than 344 emissions. In the electric po$er sector/ $here most of the

countrys coal is used/ emissions declined from 3.Q -illion tons in 344Q to 3.3 -illion tons In 3453. In 3453 there $ere

Q3F.444 fe$er train car loads of coal than there $ere in 3455. :as deserves most of the credit

for declining @" emissions. Experts lie the #niversity of alifornia@<an Die%oHs David Sictor and others at the National Rene$a-le Ener%y Oa-oratory estimate that the shale %asrevolution has reduced #< emissions -et$een B44 to 44 million tons 't7 of !3 per

year/ a-out the same amount of total annual !3 emissions in Australia/ *razil/ )rance/ or <pain./ F 2ohnan%er/ former <ecretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection/ estimates that QQ percent of

the !3 reduction -et$een 3455 and 3453 is attri-uta-le to the s$itch from coal to %as.Q ouncil on )orei%n

Relations ener%y analyst ichael Oevi put half the decrease in car-on dioxide emissions from 2anuary–ay 3455 and

2anuary–ay 3453 to the s$itch from coal to natural %as.K 0he 8hite ouse ouncil of EconomicAdvisors attri-utes 64 percent of the 344–3453 emissions reduction to (fuel s$itchin%to natural %as and rene$a-les/G and ener%y analyst 2ohn iller estimates that thecoal@to@%as s$itch is the largest single factor for emissions reductions over the

same time period.F4 8e estimate that !3 emissions reductions resultin% from the coal@to@%as s$itch in the past

several years have -een B–54 times %reater than for non@hydro rene$a-les. 0he share of natural %as in the

electricity supply mix increased -y 54 percenta%e points -et$een 344Q and 3453/ from 34.B percent to B4.6percent. !ver the same period/ the share of non@hydro rene$a-le supplied to the electric po$er sector only

increased -y 3.F percenta%e points/ from 4.G percent in 344Q to B. percent in 3453.F5 In 3453/ natural %aselectricity %eneration increased -y a-out 54 times more than the increase in $ind %eneration/ relative to 3455/ and

a-out 544 times more than the increase in solar %eneration. It is unliely that $ind and solar $illcontri-ute si%ni:cantly to the decar-onization of the electricity sector in the nextdecade/ despite the fact that theyHre poised to supply increasin% amounts of po$er to the %rid. )or $ind andsolar to -e e>ectively inte%rated into the %rid/ they rely on additional -acup andspinnin% reserve capacity . istorically/ intermittent rene$a-les have supplemented/ not displaced/ fossil

fuels/F3 and $ind and solar today displace mar%inal %as %eneration far more than they displace coal.FB 8hile$e should expect non@hydro rene$a-lesH role in reducin% emissions to increase in the short@ to

medium@term/ this #ill occur in partnership #ith epanded and ne#ly utili+ed

)eible gas capacity.F6 0he extent to $hich rene$a-les do displace fossil fuel%eneration and lead to !3 emissions reductions depends crucially on the typesof electricity generation 'coal/ %as/ nuclear/ hydro/ etc.7 in a given region6 A recent analysis

-y researchers at the olorado <chool of ines/ for example/ :nds that in coal@dominated re%ions $ind po$er may

save 4.G tons of !3 for each me%a$att hour '8h7 of $ind po$er %eneration/ $hile coal %eneration typically

releases closer to 5.5 tons of !3 per 8h. In other re%ions/ $here rene$a-les replace more %as than coal/ theresearchers :nd that savin%s could -e as lo$ as 4.B tons !3 per 8h 'see )i%ure F for re%ional displacement

factors from $ind po$er7.F 8hile a%%re%ate estimates of !3 displacement -y rene$a-lepo$er are unavaila-le/ it is clear that their deployment #ill not match theemissions reductions of coal-to-gas s#itching in the near@ to medium@term. Even asrene$a-les impact on emissions increases/ their a-ility to displace coal $ill liely remain limited for the foreseea-le future. In spite of the $ell@esta-lished car-on emissions -ene:ts

associated $ith s$itchin% from coal to %as/ the lon%@term climate -ene:ts of the coal@to@%as s$itch have -een

called into uestion due to -oth concerns a-out fu%itive methane emissions from shale %as production and the factthat s$itchin% from coal to %as reduces !3 emissions -ut does not eliminate them.

Natural gas plays a signicant role as a bridge to a lo#-carbonfuture < even if methane leakages occur natural gas is critical

uke and Trembath 1*



'ax/ policy associate in the Ener%y and limate Pro%ram at *reathrou%h/ $here his research focused on a ran%eof ener%y issues and topics includin% nuclear po$er/ natural %as/ rene$a-les/ ener%y e"ciency re-ound and

-ac:re/ national ener%y su-sidies/ and electricity systems/ and Alex/ policy analyst in the Ener%y and limate

Pro%ram at *reathrou%h Institute/ $here he researches and $rites a-out rene$a-le ener%y technolo%ies/ Americanfederal ener%y policy and the history of pu-lic investments in technolo%ical innovation/ (0he *rid%e to \ero ar-on+

an natural %as catalyze the transition to a clean ener%y future9/ http+JJensia.comJvoicesJthe@-rid%e@to@zero@

car-onJ7

Environmental experts and advocates have lon% vie$ed natural %as as a criticaldriver of the shift from coal to lo#er-carbon energy. *ecause it produces

rou%hly half the !3 emissions of coal/ natural %as has -een considered as a -rid%efuel to zero@car-on ener%y supplies -y Al 1ore/ the Natural Resources Defense ouncil/ Resources for

the )uture/ former Environmental Protection A%ency head and former !-ama climate chief arol *ro$ner/ and

ener%y experts across the political spectrum. <tudies that model natural %as as a -rid%e/ such as

one conducted -y ichael Oevi of the ouncil on )orei%n Relations/ :nd it could help stabili+eatmospheric C9! concentrations. OeviHs scenario sho$s natural %as could play asi%ni:cant role in limitin% the atmospheric !3 concentration to 4 parts permillion/ provided it is %radually phased out and replaced $ith zero@car-on@emittin% ener%y. 8hile OeviHs paper

also :nds that natural %as could play less of a role in limitin% the concentration to 64 ppm C a concentrationfreuently associated $ith the threshold for (dan%erous climate chan%e C this :ndin% should not come as a

surprise. Oimitin% %lo-al atmospheric !3 concentrations to or -elo$ 64 ppm $ould reuire that $e stop -uildin%ne$ fossil fuel infrastructure in the next several years and si%ni:cantly reduce ener%y demand over the next fe$decades. 0his is hi%hly unliely due to rapid ener%y demand %ro$th in hina/ India and other developin% countries/

and car-on emission (loc@in from existin% fossil fuel infrastructure. OeviHs :ndin%/ therefore/ is evidence that gascan play an important bridging function to a lo#-carbon future. any have

voiced concerns that fu%itive methane leaa%e from natural %as production diminishes the climate -ene:t of

s$itchin% from coal to natural %as. And it is true that over the short term/ fu%itive methaneemissions have the potential to erode most or all of the !3 emissions -ene:tresultin% from s$itchin% from coal to %as. UUo$ever/ there is stron% evidence thatleakage can and #ill be lo#ered substantially in the future. !ne study foundthat Q4 percent of total leaa%e from 34 $ells in )ort 8orth/ 0exas/ $as occurrin% at only 54percent of the $ells / VVsu%%estin% si%ni:cant potential for lo$@cost/ hi%h@impact

intervention. And a recent report from the 8orld Resources Institute identi:es several

promisin% options for further limitin% fu%itive methane emissions. oreover/ long-term climate models suggest that #arming trends have less to do #ith therate of methane leakage and more to do $ith other varia-les/ such as the thermale"ciency of future coal plants and $hether the s$itch to %as is permanent or a-rid%e to zero@car-on ener%y. <o/ althou%h methane leaa%e reduces the short@term emissions -ene:t of

s$itchin% from coal to %as C and should -e addressed for that reason C it does not limit naturalgas?s potential as a bridge fuel to a lo$@car-on future.

>ene#able shift is guaranteed- Natural gas only a short-term

transition to rene#able energy

Moni+ et al 11'Intensive study -y I0/ Ernest 2 oniz/ chair of study/ ecil and Ida 1reen Professor of Physics and En%ineerin%

<ystems/ I0 Director/ I0 Ener%y Initiative 'I0EI7 (0he )uture of Natural 1as/ I0 <tudy/httpBmitei6mit6edusystemlesNatural:asD>eport6pdf 7

Natural %as @:red po$er %eneration provides the ma=or source of -acup tointermittent rene$a-le s upplies in most #.<. marets. If policy support continues to increase the supply

of intermittent po$er/ then/ in the a-sence of a>orda-le utility@scale stora%e options/

http://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/NaturalGas_Report.pdf

http://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/NaturalGas_Report.pdf



additional natural %as capacity $ill -e needed to provide system relia-ility. In some

marets/ existin% re%ulation does not provide the appropriate incentives to -uild incremental capacity $ith lo$ load

factors/ and re%ulatory chan%es may -e reuired. In the short term/ $here a rapid increase inrene$a-le %eneration occurs $ithout any ad=ustment to the rest of the system/increased rene$a-le po$er displaces %as@:red po$er %eneration and thus reducesdemand for nat ural %as in the po$er sector. In the lon%er term/ $here the overall system can

ad=ust throu%h plant retirements and ne$ construction/ increased rene$a-les displace -ase load%eneration. 0his could mean displacement of coal/ nuclear or N1 %eneration/ dependin% on the re%ion and

policy scenario under consideration. )or example/ in the 4] 43 reduction scenario descri-ed earlier/ $here%as@:red %eneration drives out coal %eneration/ increased rene$a-le penetration asa result of cost reduction or %overnment policy $ill reduce natural %as %enerationon a nearly one@for@one -asis.

A @"-led natural gas revolution solidies global climateleadershipMead 1! – 8alter Russell ead is the 2ames lar hase Professor of )orei%n A>airs and umanities at *ard olle%e and an

Editor@at@Oar%e for American Interest. '(Ener%y Revolution 3+ A Post Post@American Post/ American Interest/ http+JJ-lo%s.the@[email protected]$rmJ3453J4QJ5Jener%y@revolution@3@a@post@post@american@postJ/ 2uly 5/ 34537

)or%et pea oil for%et the iddle East. 0he ener%y revolution of the 35st century isnHt a-outsola r ener%y or $ind po$er and the (scram-le for oil isnHt %oin% to drive %lo-al politics.

0he ener%y a-undance that helped propel the #nited <tates to %lo-al leadership in the 5Gth and 3oth centuries is -ac if theener%y revolution no$ tain% shape lives up to its full potential/ $e are headed intoa ne$ century in $hich the location of the $orldHs ener%y resources and thestructure of the $orldHs ener%y trade support American a^uence at home andpo$er a-road. *y some estimates/ the #nited <tates has more oil than <audi Ara-ia/ Ira and Iran com-ined/ and anada

may have even more than the #nited <tates. A 1A! report released last ay 'pdf lin can -e found here7 estimates that up to the

euivalent of B trillion -arrels of shale oil may lie in =ust one of the ma=or potential #< ener%y production sites. If half of this oil isrecovera-le/ #< reserves in this one deposit are rou%hly eual to the no$n reserves of the rest of the $orld com-ined. Ed$ardOuce/ an )0 $riter usually more %iven to tracin% AmericaHs decline than to promotin% its prospects/ cites estimates that as early as3434 the #< may -e producin% more oil than <audi Ara-ia. <o dramatic are AmericaHs :nds/ analysts tal of the #< turnin% into the

$orldHs ne$ <audi Ara-ia -y 3434/ $ith up to 5m -arrels a day of liuid ener%y production 'a%ainst the desert in%domHs 55m -Jdthis year7. ost of the credit %oes to private sector innovators/ $ho too their cue from the hi%h oil prices in the last decade todevise $ays of tappin% previously uneconomic under%round reserves of (ti%ht oil and shale %as. And some of it is do$n to plain

luc. )ar from reachin% its :nal frontier/ America has discovered ne$ ones under the %round. Additionally/ o ur natural %asreserves are so lar%e that the #< is liely to -ecome a ma=or exporter/ and #< domestic supplies for hydrocar-on fuels of

all types appear to -e safe and secure for the foreseea-le future. North America as a $hole has thepotential to -e a ma=or exporter of fossil fuels for decades and even %enerations tocome. <ince the 5GQ4s/ pessimism a-out AmericaHs ener%y future has -een one of thecornerstones on $hich the decline theorists erected their castles of doom $e are no$

enterin% a time $hen ener%y a-undance $ill -e an ar%ument for continued Americandynamism . 0he ener%y revolution isnHt a ma%ic $and that can mae all AmericaHs$ishes come true/ -ut it is a po$erful $ind in the sails of -oth AmericaHs domestic

economy and of its international %oals. 0he #nited <tates isnHt the only -i% $inner ofthe ener%y revolution C anada/ Israel and hina amon% others $ill also mae %ains C -ut the liely conseuences of the

ener%y revolution for AmericaHs %lo-al a%enda are so lar%e/ that the chief e>ect of the revolution is liely to -e itsrole in shoring up the foundations of the American-led #orld order.

Absent cuts in emissions #arming causes etinction

Ma+o 1& '2e>rey azo – PhD in Paleoclimatolo%y from #OA/ ana%in% Editor/ <urvival and Research )ello$

for Environmental <ecurity and <cience Policy at the International Institute for <trate%ic <tudies in Oondon/ B@3454/

(limate onict+ o$ %lo-al $armin% threatens security and $hat to do a-out it/ p%. 5337

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/15/energy-revolution-2-a-post-post-american-post/








0he -est estimates for %lo-al $armin% to the end of the century ran%e from 3 .@6._ a-ove pre@industrial levels/ dependin% on the scenario. Even in the -est@case scenario/ thelo$ end of the liely ran%e is 5.%o/ and in the $orst ,-usiness as usual, pro=ections/ $hich actual

emissions have -een matchin%/ the ran%e of liely $armin% runs from B.5@@Q.5[. Even eepin% emissionsat constant 3444 levels '$hich have already -een exceeded7/ %lo-al temperature $ould still -e expected to

reach 5.3[ '!,G;;5.[7a-ove pre@industrial levels -y the end of the century.;

0ithout early andsevere reductions in emissions/ the e>ects of climate chan%e in the second halfof the t$enty@:rst century are liely to -e catastrophic for the sta-ility and securityof countries in the developin% $orld @ not to mention the associated human tra%edy. limate chan%ecould even undermine the stren%th and sta-ility of emer%in% and advancedeconomies/ -eyond the noc@on e>ects on security of $idespread state failure andcollapse in developin% countries., And althou%h they have -een condemned as melodramatic and

alarmist/ many informed o-servers -elieve that unmiti%ated climate chan%e -eyond theend of the century could pose an eistential threat to civilisation.; 8hat is certain is

that there is no precedent in human experience for such rapid chan%e or such climatic conditions/ and even in the

-est case adaptation to these extremes $ould mean profound social/ cultural and political chan%es



1AC 3lan Tet3lanB The @nited "tates federal government should

substantially increase leasing for o;shore natural gasdevelopment in the 9uter Continental "helf of the @nited

"tates6



1AC "olvency9nly opening up o;shore lands solves < E'F of our supply is

currently o;-limits < absent ne# supply #e?ll lose our leadprices #ill increase and the market #ill become volatile

:reen A32 14 'ar/ reportin% on a conference $ith Andy Radford/ senior policy advisor for the API/(*etter Plannin% for a *etter Ener%y )uture/ http+JJener%ytomorro$.or%J-lo%J3456J=uneJ-etter@plannin%@for@a@-etter@

ener%y@future7

8ith the Interior Department turnin% its attention to the next :ve@year o>shore leasin%plan/ hereHs a :%ure to eep in mind+ KQ percent. That?s ho# much of our federalo;shore acreage is o; limits for energy development – and itHs costin% us ener%y/ =o-s

and economic %ro$th. Andy Radford/ API senior policy advisor/ set out some of the ar%uments for increasin% access

to ener%y reserves in the next :ve@year leasin% plan durin% a conference call $ith reporters+ Pro@developmentener%y policies openin% access to areas -oth on and o>shore could %enerate more than5 million ne$ =o-s and 6 million additional -arrels of oil per day. Development in =ust the Atlantic

outer continental shelf '!<7 could create nearly 3K4/444 ne$ =o-s/ %ro$ the economy -y up to

3B. -illion per year and add 5.B million -arrels of oil euivalent per day to #.<.production. Ooced a$ay in the Paci:c and eastern 1ulf of exico are more than 344/444 =o-s/ 35K -illion in

%overnment revenue and 3.F million -arrels of oil euivalent per day. Radford said includin% theseareas in the next leasin% plan $ould si%nal to %lo-al marets that the #.<. ener%yrevolution is here to stay. 9;shore development is safer than ever before/ hesaid/ pointin% to a statement released in April -y the co@chairmen of the national spill commission+ (8e are

%enerally pleased $ith the $ay the industry and the executive -ranch have moved ahead on the ommissionHs

recommendations to improve the safety of o>shore drillin% and the capacity to respond to spills. )ederalre%ulatory a%encies are implementin% ne$ rules re%ardin% oversi%ht of the industryand -olsterin% their enforcement activities. 1overnment and industry are $orin%to%ether to create a safety@conscious culture in the o>shore drillin% industry. And the

industry has su-stantially improved its capacity to respond to rupturin% $ells -y pre@positionin% caps for ready

deployment should trou-le occur. 0hus/ o>shore drillin% is safer than it $as four years a%o. Inaddition/ the enter for !>shore <afety continues to $or $ith companies and re%ulators to develop safety plans

and systems for mana%in% those plans – -oth desi%ned to en%rain safety even more deeply in day@to@day industry

operations. Radford said the next :ve@year o>shore leasin% plan/ coverin% sales for 345Q to

3433/ $ill -e si%ni:cant for #. <. ener%y development and called on the %overnmentto craft a plan that %reatly expands access to oil and natural %as reserves+ (Decisionsmade no$/ especially in uneplored areas / $ill have impacts $ell into the future.

Mno$in% this/ the department should thorou%hly analyze the resource@rich areas of interestthrou%hout the entire #.<. 9uter Continental "helf and draft an expansive leasin% plan that

maintains current leasin% areas and sees to unloc ne$ areas that are currently o>@limits/ such

as the Atlantic and the eastern 1ulf of exico. ore Radford+ (0he #.<. recently -ecame the $orldHslar%est producer of oil and natural %as. 0his ener%y renaissance has put millions of

Americans to $or/ %enerated -illions of dollars in revenue for the %overnment/ and put do$n$ardpressure on prices for consumers. *ut earlier this month/ the 2nternational .ner%y A%ency

reported that $e could fall -ehind !PE countries if #.<. production plateaus/ $hichIEA says could result in Gtighter and more volatile oil markets? and add 5 per -arrel

to the price of oil. 1ro$in% #.<. production has dramatically increased our resistance toener%y shocs/ -ut our lon%@term ener%y security can only -e ensured $ith a lastin%commitment to epanding oil and natural gas development -oth on and o>shore. Mey to

the leasin% plan is a near@term federal decision on issuin% permits for the collection of ne$ seismic survey data in



the Atlantic and the conditions it $ill set for those permits. Radford said the parameters for much@needed surveyin%should -e -ased on the -est availa-le science and real operational experience/ $hich he said have sho$n that

surveys are safe and have ne%li%i-le e>ect on marine mammals. 0he data is needed to set the sta%e for o>shore

leasin%/ exploration and development and shouldnHt -e laden $ith restrictions -ased on unrealistic animal impacts/

as API and other or%anizations ar%ued in recent comments to the %overnment. Radford+ (AmericaHs oil and

natural %as renaissance has nurtured our economy $ith %ood =o-s/ a>orda-leener%y/ and sta-le prices/ -ut if $e $ant these -ene:ts last for the lon%@term/ $ecannot a>ord to mae short@si%hted decisions a-out our ener%y future. 0he #.<. has an

unprecedented opportunity to -e the %lo-al leader in ener%y for decades to come/ -ut achievin% our true

potential $ill tae leadership and foresi%ht from those in %overnment $ho hold theey to accessing our o;shore energy reserves6 The time has come to openthe lock and allo# safe and responsible energy production throughout the@6"6 9uter Continental "helf .

Congress is key—the ,epartment of the 2nterior must submit a

ve-year leasing plan for approvalHann 1* – Adam Sann is a le%islative attorney that $ors for the on%ressional Research <ervice. '(!>shore !il and 1as

Development+ Oe%al )rame$or/ on%ressional Research <ervice/ http+JJfas.or%Js%pJcrsJmiscJROBB646.pdf / 2une 3/ 345B7

In %eneral/ the !<OA reuires the federal %overnment to prepare/ revise/ and maintain an oiland %as leasin% pro%ram. o$ever/ some o>shore areas have -een $ithdra$n fromdisposition under the !<OA pursuant to t$o -road cate%ories of moratoria applica-le to !< oil

and %as leasin%+ those imposed -y the President under authority %ranted -y the !<OA/35 and thoseimposed directly -y on%ress / $hich have most often taen the form of limitations onthe use of appropriated funds. Appropriations@-ased con%ressional moratoria :rst appeared in the appropriations

le%islation for )?5GK3. 0he lan%ua%e of the appropriations le%islation -arred the expenditureof funds -y the Department of the Interior 'D!I7 for leasin% and related activities in certain areas in the !<.3B <imilar

lan%ua%e appeared in every D!I appropriations -ill throu%h )?344K. o$ever/ startin% $ith )?344G/ on%resshas not included this lan%ua%e in appropriations le%islation. As a result/ the *ureau of !cean Ener%y

ana%ement '*!E7/ the a%ency $ithin the Department of the Interior that administers and re%ulates the !< oil and %as

leasin% pro%ram/ is free to use appropriated funds to fund all leasin%/ preleasin%/ andrelated activities in most !< areas '$here such activities are not prohi-ited -yother le%islation7.36 Oan%ua%e used in the le%islation that funds D!I in the future $ill determine $hether/ and in $hat form/

-ud%et@-ased restrictions on !< leasin% mi%ht return. In addition to the con%ressional moratoria/ for most

of the last 34 years there have -een moratoria issued -y the executive -ranch on o>shore drillin%

in many areas. 0he :rst of these $as issued -y President 1eor%e . 8. *ush on 2une 3F/ 5GG4.3 0his memorandum/ issued

pursuant to the authority vested in the President under <ection 53'a7 of the !<OA/ placed under presidentialmoratoria those areas already under an appropriations@-ased moratorium pursuant to P.O.

54@KB/ the Interior Appropriations le%islation in place at that time. 0hat appropriations@-ased moratorium prohi-ited (leasin% andrelated activities in the areas o> the coast of alifornia/ !re%on/ and 8ashin%ton/ and the North Atlantic and certain portions of theeastern 1ulf of exico. 0he le%islation further prohi-ited leasin%/ preleasin%/ and related activities in the North Aleutian -asin/ otherareas of the eastern 1ulf of exico/ and the id@ and <outh Atlantic. 0he presidential moratorium $as extended -y President *ill

linton -y memorandum dated 2une 53/ 5GGK.3F !n 2uly 56/ 344K/ President 1eor%e 8. *ush issued anexecutive memorandum that rescinded the executive moratorium on o>shore drillin% created

-y the 5GG4 order of President 1eor%e . 8. *ush and rene$ed -y President *ill linton in 5GGK.3Q 0he memorandum revised thelan%ua%e of the previous memorandum so that only areas desi%nated as marine sanctuaries are $ithdra$n from disposition. 0he

$ithdra$al has no expiration date. 0he 2uly 56/ 344K/ memorandum / taen to%ether $ith the

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33404.pdf

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33404.pdf



expiration of the con%ressional moratorium/ has the e>ect of openin% up areas of the

!< for consideration for exploration and production $here such activities had not previously -een allo$ed. !<acrea%e not protected -y other statutory measures can no$ -e considered -y *!Efor leasin%/ as descri-ed infra. (o#ever/ it is important to note that other prohibitions andmoratoria on development on exploration and production in certain areas of the !< eist. )or

example/ the 1ulf of exico Ener%y <ecurity Act of 344F/ enacted as part of .R. F555/ the !mni-us 0ax Relief and ealth are Act

of 344F/3K created a ne$ con%ressional moratorium over leasin% in portions of the !< that do not depend on annual rene$al inappropriations le%islation. 0he 344F le%islation explicitly permits oil and %as leasin% in areas of the 1ulf of exico/3G -ut alsoesta-lished a ne$ moratorium on preleasin%/ leasin%/ and related activity in the eastern 1ulf of exico throu%h 2une B4/ 3433.B4

0his moratorium is independent of any appropriations@-ased con%ressional moratorium/ and thus $ould continue even if on%ress

reinstated the annual appropriations@-ased moratorium. In 5GQK/ the !<OA $as si%ni:cantly amended

so as to increase the role of the a>ected coastal states in the leasin% process.B5 0he amendments also revised the-iddin% process and leasin% procedures/ set stricter criteria to %uide the environmental revie$ process/ and

esta-lished ne$ safety and environmental standards to %overn dril lin% operations. 0he !< leasin% processconsists of four distinct sta%es+ '57 the :ve@year plannin% pro%ramB3 '37 preleasin% activityand the lease saleBB 'B7 exploration and '67 development and production.B 0his process

%arnered si%ni:cant attention in the 553th on%ress/ $here le%islation $as introduced to accelerate the leasin% and permittin%

process for o>shore oil and %as exploration and production. .R. 533G $ould have created ne$ deadlines

for revie$ of certain permits for exploration and production/ $hile .R. 53B4/ introduced the same day/ $ould have

reuired *!E to lease certain o>shore areas for oil and natural %as exploration and production on an

accelerated timeline. *oth -ills $ere passed -y the ouse of Representatives/ -ut $ere not passed -y the<enate. The "ecretary of the 2nterior is reIuired to prepare a ve-yearleasing plan/ su-=ect to annual revisions/ that %overns any o>shore leasin% that taes place durin% the

period of plan covera%e.BF Each :ve@year plan esta-lishes a schedule of proposed lease sales/ providin% the timin%/ size/ and%eneral location of the leasin% activities. 0his plan is to -e -ased on multiple considerations/ includin% the <ecretaryHs determinationas to $hat $ill -est meet national ener%y needs for the :ve@year period and the extent of potential economic/ social/ andenvironmental impacts associated $ith development.BQ Durin% the development of the plan/ the <ecretary must solicit and considercomments from the %overnors of a>ected states/ and at least F4 days prior to pu-lication of the plan in the )ederal Re%ister/ theplan is to -e su-mitted to the %overnor of each a>ected state for further comments.BK After pu-lication/ the Attorney 1eneral is also

authorized to su-mit comments re%ardin% potential e>ects on competition.BG <u-seuently/ at least F4 days prior toits approval/ the plan is to be submitted to Congress and the 3resident / alon%

$ith any received comments and an explanation for the re=ection of any comment.64 !nce the leasin% plan is

approved/ areas included in the plan are to -e availa-le for leasin%/ consistent $ith the terms

of the plan.65 0he development of the :ve@year plan is considered a ma=or federal actionsi%ni:cantly a>ectin% the uality of the human environment and as such reuirespreparation of an environmental impact statement 'EI<7 under the National Environmental Policy Act 'NEPA7.63

0hus/ the NEPA revie$ process complements and informs the preparation of a :ve@year plan under the !<OA.6B 0hecurrent )ive@?ear Plan too e>ect on Au%ust 3Q/ 3453.66 0he Plan (includes :fteen potential leasesales in six plannin% areasCthe 8estern and entral 1ulf of exico '1!7/ the portionof the Eastern 1! not currently under on%ressional moratorium/ and the huchi<ea/ *eaufort <ea and oo Inlet plannin% areas o>shore Alasa.6 0he Plannin% Areas for the 3453@

345Q )ive@?ear Plan/ as $ell as areas restricted for leasin% activity under executive or con%ressional moratoria and areas *!E

deemed to have (lo$ resource potential/ are depicted in )i%ure 5 and )i%ure 3 -elo$.

The plan creates certainty and investor condence for o;shoreproduction:riles &* – Oisa 1riles is the Deputy <ecretary of the Department of the Interior. '(Ener%y Production on )ederal Oands/

hearin% -efore the ommittee on Ener%y and Natural Resources7

r. 1RIOE<. AmericaHs pu-lic lands have an a-undant opportunity for exploration anddevelopment of rene$a-le and nonrene$a-le ener%y resources. Ener%y reserves contained onthe Department of the InteriorHs onshore and o>shore )ederal lands are very important tomeetin% our current and future estimates of $hat it is %oin% to tae to continue to



supply AmericaHs ener%y demand. Estimates su%%est that these lands contain approximately FK

percent of the undiscovered #.<. oil resources and Q6 percent of the undiscovered natural %as resources.

President *ush has developed a national ener%y policy that laid out a comprehensive/ lon%@term ener%y strate%y for AmericaHs

future. 0hat strate%y reco%nizes $e need to raise domestic production of ener%y/ -oth rene$a-le and

nonrene$a-le/ to meet our dependence for ener%y. )or oil and %as/ the #nited <tates uses a-out Q -illion

-arrels a year/ of $hich a-out 6 -illion are currently imported and B -illion are domestically produced. 0he President proposed toopen a small portion of the Arctic National 8ildlife Refu%e to environmentally responsi-le oil and %as exploration. No$ there is a ne$and environmentally friendly technolo%y/ similar to directional drillin%/ $ith mo-ile platforms/ self@containin% drillin% units. 0hesethin%s $ill allo$ producers to access lar%e ener%y reserves $ith almost no footprint on the tundra. Each day/ even since I have

assumed this =o-/ our a-ility to minimize our e>ect on the environment continues to improve to $here it is almost nonexistent insuch areas as even in Alasa. Accordin% to the latest oil and %as assessment/ AN8R is the lar%est untapped source of domesticproduction availa-le to us. 0he production for AN8R $ould eual a-out F4 years of imports from Ira. 0he National Ener%y Policyalso encoura%es development of cleaner/ more diverse portfolios of domestic rene$a-le ener%y sources. 0he rene$a-le policy inareas cover %eothermal/ $ind/ solar/ and -iomass. And it ur%es research on hydro%en as an alternate ener%y source. 0o advance theNational Ener%y Policy/ the *ureau of Oand ana%ement and the D!EHs National Rene$a-le Ener%y Oa- last $ee announced therelease of a rene$a-le ener%y report. It identi:es and evaluates rene$a-le ener%y resources on pu-lic lands. r. hairman/ I $ouldlie to su-mit this for the record.` 0his report/ $hich has =ust come out/ assess the potential for rene$a-le ener%y on pu-lic lands. Itis a very %ood report that $e hope $ill allo$ for the private sector/ after $orin% $ith the various other a%encies/ to $here can $e

-est use rene$a-le resource/ and ho$ do $e tae this assessment and put it into the land use plannin% that $e are currently %oin%/so that ri%ht@of@$ays and understandin% of $hat rene$a-le resources can -e done in the 8est can/ in fact/ have a -etteropportunity. 0he Department completed the :rst of an ener%y inventory this year. No$ the EPA report/ $hich is layin% here/ also/r. hairman/ is an estimate of the undiscovered/ technically recovera-le oil and %as. Part one of that report covers :ve oil and %as-asins. 0he second part of the report $ill -e out later this year. No$ this report/ it is notCthere are people $ho have di>erentopinions of it. *ut the fact is $e -elieve it $ill -e a %ood %uidance tool/ as $e loo at $here the oil and %as potential is and $here $e

need to do land use plannin%. And as $e update these land use plannin%s and do our EI<s/ that $ill help %uide further the privatesector/ the pu-lic sector/ and all staeholders on ho$ $e can -etter do land use plannin% and develop oil and %as in a soundfashion. Also/ I have layin% here in front of me the t$o EI<s that have -een done on the t$o ma=or coal methane -asins in the #nited

<tates/ <an 2uan *asis and the Po$der River *asin. ompletin% these reports/ $hich are in draft/ $ill increase and o>er theopportunity for production of natural %as $ith coal -ed methane. No$ these reports are in draft and/ once completed/ $ill authorizeand allo$ for additional exploration and development. It has taen 3 years to %et these in place. It has taen 3 years to %et some ofthese in place. 0his plannin% process that on%ress has initiated under )OPA and other statutes allo$s for a deli-erative/ consciousunderstandin% of $hat the impacts are. 8e -elieve that $hen these are :nalized/ that is in fact $hat $ill occur. !ne of the areas$hich $e -elieve that the Department of the Interior and the *ureau of Oand ana%ement is and is %oin% to en%a%e in iscoordination $ith lando$ners. r. hairman/ the private sector in the oil and %as industry must -e %ood nei%h-ors $ith the ranchersin the 8est. 0he *O is %oin% to -e addressin% the issues of -ondin% reuirements that $ill assure that lando$ners have theirsurface ri%hts and their values protected. *O is $orin% to mae the consultation process $ith the lando$ners/ $ith the <tates and

local %overnments and other )ederal a%encies more e"cient and meanin%ful. *ut $e must assure that the surface o$ners areprotected and the values of their ranches are in fact assured. And -y -ein% %ood nei%h-ors/ $e can do that. In the *O land useplannin% process/ $e have priorities/ ten current resource mana%ement plannin% areas that contain the ma=or oil and %as reservesthat are reported out in the EPA study. !nce this process is completed/ then $e can move for$ard $ith consideration ofdevelopment of the natural %as. 8e are also $orin% $ith the 8estern 1overnorsH Association and the 8estern #tilities 1roup. 0hepurpose is to identify and desi%nate ri%ht@of@$ay corridors on pu-lic lands. 8e $ould lie to do it no$ as to $here ri%ht@of@$ay

corridors mae sense and put those in our land use plannin% processes/ so that $hen the need is truly identi:ed/ utili ties/ ener%y

companies/ and the pu-lic $ill no$ $here they are Instead of tain% t$o years to amend a land useplan/ hopefully this $ill expedite and have future opportunity so that $hen the needis there/ $e can %o ahead and mae that investment throu%h the private sector. Itshould speed up the process of ri%ht@of@$ay permits for -oth pipelines and electric transmission. No$

let me s$itch to the o>shore/ the !uter ontinental <helf. It is a hu%e contri-utor to our NationHsener%y and economic security. 0he AIRAN. r. <ecretary/ everythin% you have taled a-out so far is onshore. r.

1RIOE<. 0hat is correct. 0he AIRAN. ?ou no$ $ill spea to o>shore. r. 1RIOE<. ?es/ sir/ I $ill. No$ $e are eepin% on schedule

the holdin% lease sales in the areas that are availa-le for leasin%. In the past year/ scheduled sales inseveral areas $ere either delayed/ canceled / or put under moratoria/ even thou%hthey $ere in the @year plan. 2t undermined certainty6 2t made investing/

particularly in the 1ulf/ more risky . 8e have approved a @year oil and %as leasin% pro%ramin 2uly 3443 that calls for 34 ne$ lease sales in the 1ulf of exico and several other areas of the o>shore/ speci:cally in Alasa -y 344Q. No$ our estimates indicate that these areas contain resources up to

33 -illion -arrels of oil and F5 tri llion cu-ic feet of natural %as. 8e are also actin% to raise ener%y production from these o>shoreareas -y providin% royalty relief on the !< leases for ne$ deep $ells that are drilled in shallo$ $ater. 0hese are at depths that

heretofore $ere very and are very costly to produce from and costly to drill to. 8e need to encoura%e that

exploration. 0hese deep $ells/ $hich are %reater than 5/444 feet in depth/ are expected to access-et$een to 34 trillion cu-ic feet of natural %as and can be developed Iuicklydue to eisting infrastructure and the shallo$ $ater. 8e have also issued a :nal



rule in 2uly 3443 that allo$s companies to apply for a lease extension/ %ivin% themmore time to analyze complex %eolo%ical data that underlies salt domes. 0hat is/ $here %eolo%ically salt

overlays the %eolo%ically clay. And you try to do seismic/ and the seismic =ust %ets distorted. <o $e have extended thelease terms/ so that hopefully those companies can :%ure out $here and $here to-est drill . Sast resources of oil and natural %as lie/ $e hope/ -eneath these sheets of salt in

the !< in the 1ulf of exico. *ut it is very di"cult to %et clear seismic ima%es. 8e are also $orin% to create a process of

revie$in% and permittin% alternative ener%y sources on the !< lands. 8e have sent le%islation to on%ress that $ould %ive theinerals ana%ement <ervice of the Department of the Interior clear authority to lease parts of the !< for rene$a-le ener%y. 0herene$a-les could -e $ind/ $ave/ or solar ener%y/ and related pro=ects that are auxiliary to oil and %as development/ such as

o>shore sta%in% facilities and emer%ency medical facilities. 8e need this authority in order to -e a-le totruly %ive the private sector $hat are the rules to play from and -uy/ so they canhave certainty about #here to go.

Jocusing on the details and inner-#orkings of government

policy-making is productive < critical approaches can?t resolvereal #orld problems like poverty racism and #ar

McClean 1

UDavid E./ Ad=unct Professor of Philosophy/ olloy olle%e/ Ne$ ?or/ 3445 (0heultural Oeft and the Oimits of <ocial ope/ Presented at the 3445 Annualonference of the <ociety for the Advancement of American Philosophy/ Availa-le!nline at [email protected]%JarchivesJpastZconferenceZpro%ramsJpc3445JDiscussion]34papersJdavidZmcclean.htm/ 2P/ Accessed on 2uly / 345B7VU<PV

?et for some reason/ at least partially explicated in Richard Rorty,s Achievin% !urountry/ a -oo that I thin is lon% overdue/ leftist critics continue to cite andrefer to the eccentric and often a priori ruminations of people lie those =ust

mentioned/ and a litany of others includin% Derrida/ Deleuze/ Oyotard/ 2ameson/and Oacan/ $ho are to me hu%ely more irrelevant than a-ermas in theirnarrative attempts to su%%est policy prescriptions '$hen they actually do su%%estthem7 aimed at curin% the ills of homelessness/ poverty/ maret %reed / national

-elli%erence and racism. I $ould lie to su%%est that it is time for American social

critics $ho are enamored $ith this %roup/ those $ho actually $ant to -e relevant/to reco%nize that they have a disease/ and a disease re%ardin% $hich I myselfmust remem-er to stay faithful to my o$n t$elve step pro%ram of recovery. 0hedisease is the need for ela-orate theoretical ;remedies; $rapped in neolo%icaland multi@sylla-ic =ar%on. 0hese ela-orate theoretical remedies are more;interestin%/; to -e sure/ than the pra%matically settled uestions a-out $hat

shape democracy should tae in various contexts/ or $hether private propertyshould -e protected -y the state/ or re%ardin% our -asic human nature'descri-ed/ if not de:ned 'heaven for-id7/ in such statements as ;8e don,t lie tostarve; and ;8e lie to spea our minds $ithout fear of death; and ;8e lie toeep our children safe from poverty;7. As Rorty puts it/ ;8hen one of today,sacademic leftists says that some topic has -een ,inadeuately theorized/, you can-e pretty certain that he or she is %oin% to dra% in either philosophy of lan%ua%e/or Oacanian psychoanalysis/ or some neo@arxist version of economic



determinism. . . . 0hese futile attempts to philosophize one,s $ay into politicalrelevance are a symptom of $hat happens $hen a Oeft retreats from activism andadopts a spectatorial approach to the pro-lems of its country. Disen%a%ementfrom practice produces theoretical hallucinations ;'italics mine7.'57 !r as 2ohn

De$ey put it in his 0he Need for a Recovery of Philosophy/ ;I -elieve that

philosophy in America $ill -e lost -et$een che$in% a historical cud lon% sincereduced to $oody :-er/ or an apolo%etics for lost causes/ . . . . or a scholastic/schematic formalism/ unless it can someho$ -rin% to consciousness America,so$n needs and its o$n implicit principle of successful action.; 0hose $ho su>eror have su>ered from this disease Rorty refers to as the ultural Oeft/ $hich left is

=uxtaposed to the Political Oeft that Rorty prefers and prefers for %ood reason.Another attri-ute of the ultural Oeft is that its mem-ers fancy themselves pureculture critics $ho vie$ the successes of America and the 8est/ rather than some

of the -ar-arous methods for achievin% those successes/ as mostly evil/ and $ho

vie$ anythin% lie national pride as eually evil even $hen that pride is tempered$ith the no$led%e and admission of the nation,s shortcomin%s. In other $ords/

the ultural Oeft/ in this country/ too often dismiss American society as -eyondreform and redemption. And Rorty correctly ar%ues that this is a disastrousconclusion/ i.e. disastrous for the ultural Oeft. I thin it may also -e disastrousfor our social hopes/ as I $ill explain. Oeftist American culture critics mi%ht puttheir considera-le talents to -etter use if they -ury some of their cynicism a-outAmerica ,s social and political prospects a nd help for%e pu-lic and politicalpossi-ilities in a spirit of determination to/ indeed/ achieve our country @ thecountry of 2e>erson and Min% the country of 2ohn De$ey and alcom L thecountry of )ranlin Roosevelt and *ayard Rustin/ and of the later 1eor%e 8allaceand the later *arry 1old$ater. 0o invoe the $ords of Min%/ and $ith reference tothe American society/ the time is al$ays ripe to seize the opportunity to helpcreate the ;-eloved community/; one $oven $ith the thread of a%ape into aconceptually sin%le yet diverse tapestry that shoots for nothin% less than a trueintra@American cosmopolitan ethos/ one $herein -oth same sex unions and faith@-ased initiatives $ill -e a-le to -e part of the same social reality/ one $herein-usiness interests and the university are not seen as -elon%in% to t$o separate%alaxies -ut as part of the same ans$er to the threat of social and ethicalnihilism. 8e $ho fancy ourselves philosophers $ould do $ell to create from$ithin ourselves and from $ithin our rans a ne$ ind of pu-lic intellectual $hohas -oth a hun%ry theoretical mind and $ho is yet capa-le of seein% the need tomove past hi%h theory to other important uestions that are less -edazzlin% and;interestin%; -ut more important to the prospect of our ourishin% @ uestionssuch as ;o$ is it possi-le to develop a citizenry that cherishes a certain hexis/

one $hich prizes the character of the <amaritan on the road to 2ericho almostmore than any other9; or ;o$ can $e suare the political do%ma that under%irdsthe fantasy of a missile defense system $ith the need to treat America as -ut onemem-er in a community of nations under a ;la$ of peoples9; 0he ne$ pu-licphilosopher mi%ht see to understand la-or la$ and military and trade theoryand doctrine as much as theories of surplus value the lo%ic of internationalmarets and trade a%reements as much as critiues of commodi:cation/ and the

politics of complexity as much as the politics of po$er 'all of $hich can still -e



done from our arm chairs.7 0his means %oin% do$n deep into the %uts of ouruotidian social institutions/ into the %rimy pra%matic details $here intellectualsare loathe to d$ell -ut $here the o"cers and -ureaucrats of those institutionstae di"cult and often unpleasant/ imperfect decisions that a>ect other peoples,lives/ and it mean s main% honest attempts to truly understand ho$ those

institutions actually function in the actual $orld -efore ho$lin% for theiroverthro$ commences. 0his mi%ht help eep us from -ein% slapped do$n inde-ates -y true policy pros $ho actually no$ $hat they are talin% a-out -ut$ho lac a$areness of the do%matic assumptions from $hich they proceed/ and$ho have not yet found a %ood reason to listen to =ar%on@riddled lectures fromphilosophers and culture critics $ith their sno-ish disrespect for the so@called;mana%erial class.;

1ac natural gas

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