19.11.2013 investment keynote investing into mongolia in 2013 – where do the opportunities lie,...
TRANSCRIPT
Mongolia Investment Summit
November 19th, 2013
Hong Kong
MONGOLIA: Outlook for Asset Prices in the Context
of the Domestic Liquidity Crisis
James Passin, Principal
Firebird Management LLC
Legal Disclaimer This Presentation is confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in any jurisdiction except with the prior express written consent of FG2 Advisors, LLC (“FG2”). The Presentation is for informational purposes only, and is intended only for those recipients to whom it is delivered by FG2. By accepting this Presentation, the recipient agrees that it will not, and it will cause its directors, partners, officers, employees and representatives to not, divulge any such information to any other party.
Nothing herein should be considered a recommendation by FG2 of any security, assets or investment. In preparing this Presentation, FG2 has relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to or reviewed by it. FG2 has no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. FG2 does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. This Presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, investment product, or investment advisory services described herein. Any offering will be made only by means of a private placement memorandum or other appropriate materials (the “Offering Documents”) that will contain detailed information about any investment to be offered. The terms of any investment described herein are subject to change. Any Fund and any interests therein have not been and will not be registered, guaranteed, approved or disapproved under or by the securities laws of the United States or any other jurisdiction nor by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any other government agency or authority.
Certain statements and information in this Presentation constitute “forward-looking statements” and forward-looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts or estimates of cash flows, yields or returns, scenario analyses and proposed or expected portfolio composition. When used in this Presentation, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of a Fund to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements in this Presentation speak only as of the date hereof. FG2 expressly disclaims any obligation to disseminate any updates to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in its expectation with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
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Legal Disclaimer -- Continued There are special considerations associated with international investing, including the risk of currency fluctuations and
political and economic events. Investing in emerging markets may involve greater risk and volatility than investing in
more developed countries. Due to their narrow focus, sector-based investments typically exhibit greater volatility.
Investors should be aware that hedge funds often engage in leverage, short-selling, arbitrage, hedging, derivatives, and
other speculative investment practices that may increase investment loss. Hedge funds can be highly illiquid, are not
required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and often charge high fees that can erode
performance. Additionally, they may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing tax information. While
hedge funds may appear similar to mutual funds, they are not necessarily subject to the same regulatory requirements
as mutual funds.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Legal Disclaimer -- Continued No warranties
As FG2 Advisors, LLC (“Firebird”), nor any entity affiliated with Firebird, is NOT an investment fund for the purposes of
the Securities Markets Law of Mongolia and it makes no representations or warranties in relation to this presentation or
the information and materials provided on this presentation.
Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing paragraph, Firebird does not warrant that the information on this
presentation is complete, true, accurate or non-misleading. Nothing on this presentation constitutes, or is meant to
constitute, advice of any kind. If you require advice in relation to any legal or financial matter you should consult an
appropriate professional.
This overview is for informational purposes and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities
and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any security as described herein. Nothing herein
should be considered a recommendation by Firebird of any security, assets or investment.
Firebird will not be liable to you in relation to the contents of, or use of, or otherwise in connection with, this
presentation.
Reasonableness
By using this presentation, you agree that the exclusions and limitations of liability set out in this presentation disclaimer
are reasonable.
If you do not think they are reasonable, you must not use this presentation.
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Mongolia: From Mini-Bubble to Near Collapse
• 2011
– Stock market mini-bubble
– Listed Mongolian proxies at ridiculous valuations
– “Mongolian” blank check companies easily financed
• 2012 – 2013 IH
– Difficult laws: LRISE/SEFL; Draft Mining Law
– Parliamentary and Presidential Election campaigning
– Oyu Tolgoi (“OT”) “passion play”
– Millennium IT (“MIT”) system reckless experiment
– Global bear market in resource stocks
– Crash in all listed Mongolian proxies
– Currency depreciation and USD shortage
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Crash in all Listed Mongolian Proxies
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Crash in
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Mongolia Energy (HK) Turquoise Hill (NYSE)
Entrée Gold (TSXVX) Petro Matad (AIM)
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Collapse of the Mongolian Stock Market
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Launch of LSE’s
MIT System
Mongolian Stock Exchange (“MSE”) Top 20 Index
Weakening of the Mongolian Tugrik
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MNT vs. USD (MNTUSD)
Testing key
support level
OT – Lack of Coherent Policy
• Uncertainty regarding OT overshadowing positive legislative changes
• Need for Phase II CAPEX to reliquify Mongolian financial system
• Turquoise Hill (NYSE: TRQ) rights offering will extract further liquidity from
Mongolian-focused institutional equity investors
• Rio Tinto/minority shareholder issues ignored by international media
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International Perception of OT Policy Deliberations
Mongolia – Positioned for Recovery
• New Investment Law
• New Securities Law – Approved; effective date 01/01/14
• OT – Project finance deal for underground mining likely (2014)
• Samurai Bonds, China swap lines – International sovereign support for
Mongolia’s liquidity position
• Election Season over
– Political stability until campaigning starts for 2016
– Rebuilding of liquidity within Mongolian business groups
• 8% mortgages from central bank stimulating economy
• Remains one of the world’s fastest growing economies
• No elections until 2016
• $20 billion coking coal offtake agreement with China
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Friendly Turn in Global Market Conditions
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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Currency Volatility Declining?
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MNTUSD Historical Volatility
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The Election Cycle: Historic Turning Points
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MSE Top 20 Index
Mongolia: The Next Qatar?
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Real GDP/Capita - Qatar (starting 1970) vs Mongolia (starting 1991)
Source: Bloomberg
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$20,000
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Mongolia (starting 1991) Qatar (starting 1970)
Mongolia Today 2013
Mongolia in 2034?
Mongolia 1991
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Mongolian GDP – Late 13th Century
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The Land of the Eternal Blue Sky
• Historic opportunities for contrarian equity and debt investors
• Unfolding mining rush underpinning economy
• Constructive government policies
• Rise of the Mongolian consumer
• Continued migration from country to cities
• Increased levels of business education
• Rise of the Mongolian business groups
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Historic Buying Opportunities
• MSE-listed shares
• Foreign-listed resource juniors (Caveat Emptor)
• Indebted private Mongolian companies or companies owned by leveraged
entrepreneurs
• MNT income streams
• Proxies for infrastructure investment
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Firebird’s Mission
• Holding largest possible quantity of Mongolian assets
• Acquiring controlling stakes in public and private Mongolian
companies
• Restructuring portfolio companies through the introduction of
modern business practices and through the financing of capital
investments
• Formulation of capital markets strategies to unlock latent value
and create coherent exit strategies
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THANK YOU
FG2 Advisors LLC
152 W. 57th St., 24th Floor
New York, NY 10019 USA
Tel: (1) 212 698 9260
Fax: (1) 212 698 9266
www.fbird.com
James Passin
Email: [email protected]
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