18 march 2020 global iron ore & steel forecast conference...58% of people make up 17% of global...

15
Investor Presentation November 2019 Innovative Technology Existing Infrastructure Globally Significant Orebody Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference 18 March 2020

Upload: others

Post on 05-Oct-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Investor PresentationNovember 2019

Innovative Technology

Existing Infrastructure

Globally Significant Orebody

Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference18 March 2020

Page 2: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Disclaimer

2

Important Notice

The purpose of this presentation is to provide general information about Magnetite Mines Limited ("MGT"). It is not recommended that any person makes any investment

decision in relation to MGT based on this presentation. This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute "forward-looking statements". Such statements

are only predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to differ materially from

those expressed, implied or projected in any forward-looking statements.

No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by MGT that the material contained in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for

statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of MGT, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of

the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a

consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or omission therefrom. MGT accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy,

omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made available to a person nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further

information.

Additional Information

This presentation should be read in conjunction with the Annual Report at 30 June 2019 together with any announcements made by MGT in accordance with its

continuous disclosure obligations arising under the Corporations Act 2001. Any references to resources estimations should be read in conjunction with MGT’s Mineral

Resources statement for its Magnetite projects at 30 June 2019 as released to the Australian Securities Exchange on 12 and 20 November 2018. MGT confirms in the

subsequent public report that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the relevant market announcement and, in the

case of estimates of mineral resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue

to apply and have not materially changed. All amounts within this presentation are stated in Australian Dollars consistent with the functional currency of MGT, unless

otherwise stated. Tables contained within this presentation may contain immaterial rounding differences.

Page 3: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Steel usage versus per capita GDP

• Conventional analysis suggests steel

intensity increases as countries develop,

peaking then plateauing (‘peak steel’)

• Other factors raised, such as technology,

‘de-intensification’, recycling, environment

• But China’s pathway has not proved

amenable to traditional intensity or

econometric tools

3

Crowson, P. Intensity of use reexamined. Miner Econ 31, 61–70 (2018);

Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Forecasting demand with steel intensity models

…and premature “peak steel” estimates

Page 4: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Is China a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma?

Underestimates during the rise of China… …and premature “peak steel” estimates

• "Humans make mistakes, Chinese demand is going south.“ (Kirill

Chuyko, BCS, AFR Nov 24 2014)

• “China’s steel sector has already entered a period of peaking and

flattening out.” (CISA Chairman Wall Street Daily, February 2015)

• “The increasing market consensus is that China is at, or close to,

reaching the maximum level of steel output and demand slipping

back to just under [800Mt] from 2017 to 2020”. (Morgan Stanley

Reuters February 2015)

• “POSCO Research Institute predicts that China’s crude steel

demand will continue to decline gradually from the peak of 766Mt

in 2013 to 670Mt in 2020” (Asian Steel Watch January 2016)

• “Rio Tinto … is sticking by its widely ridiculed prediction that

Chinese steel production will peak around 1Bt by 2030” (SMH Sep

3 2015)

4

Research on China's Steel Demand Using Combined Forecast- International Journal of u- and

e- Service, Science and Technology Vol.8, No.1 (2015), pp.189-200

Page 5: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand – but that is changing

• In UK and US, peak steel was almost a

century after industrialisation

• Japan flattened after 1974, 14 years after

industrialisation, actual peak in 2007

• Four regions on a rapid growth path:

– China – 5y growth 21%, 1.4Bn pop

– Other Asia - 5y growth 3%, 1.8Bn pop

– India - 5y growth 27%, 1.4Bn pop

– Africa - 5y growth 13%, 1.8Bn pop

5

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

18

50

18

56

18

62

18

68

18

74

18

80

18

86

18

92

18

98

19

04

19

10

19

16

19

22

19

28

19

34

19

40

19

46

19

52

19

58

19

64

19

70

19

76

19

82

19

88

19

94

20

00

20

06

20

12

20

18

Cru

de

stee

l pro

du

ctio

n C

hin

a '0

00

t

Cru

de

stee

l pro

du

ctio

n '0

00

t (e

xcl C

hin

a)

Long Term Crude Steel Production History(LHS except China RHS)

US UK Japan India Other Asia Africa/ME China

Page 6: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Crude steel production increasing, as well as iron ore trade…

6

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Regional Crude Steel Production

Traditional steel Africa/Middle East India Other Asia China

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

China quarterly iron ore imports and crude steel production (annualised)

China Crude Steel Production (annualised) China Iron Ore Imports (annualised)

Traditional includes Europe/CIS/Americas/Oceania/Japan

Page 7: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

…but supply response muted

• China is confounding predictions

with strong growth

• Rapid growth in developing regions

• Limited supply response

• Expect long term price trends to

continue

• Grade spreads generally increased

– an opportunity for high grade

products

7

Page 8: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Razorback is a 3.9Bt resource close to existing infrastructure

8

Location

• ~ 240km NE of Adelaide within the Braemar Iron

Formation

• ~ 99km to NEM transmission lines and substation

• ~ 40km from mine site to rail

• ~ 375km rail haul from siding to port

Scoping Study focused on low capital startup

• Low strip ratio

• Long mine life

• Local water and power

• Conventional HPGR/LIMS magnetite flowsheet

Page 9: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

9

Razorback Iron Project Key Advantages

Key advantages Providing

Existing Rail, Port and Power Infrastructure Low capital cost✓

Soft magnetite ore with simple flowsheetPremium product (68.5% Fe with ~3.3% SiO2)

potential for high and competitive margins ✓

Located in a mining-friendly jurisdiction Low sovereign risk✓

Page 10: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Simple, shallow and low strip ratio pit shell

10

Proposed pit shells for the Razorback Iron ProjectRazorback Ridge is the largest outcropping of magnetite

mineralisation in the Braemar Iron Formation

Page 11: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Focussed on high-grade low impurity products

11

Fe % 68.5

Silica % 3.3

Alumina % 0.4

Phosphorus % 0.01

Indicative Razorback Iron Project – Fe Concentrate Specs1

55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 67.0% 69.0%

RAZORBACK

Carajas Fines (Vale)

Newman Fines (BHP)

Vale SSF

Vale BBF

PB Fines (RioTinto)

MAC fines (BHP

RTX Fines (Rio Tinto)

Roy Hill

W Pilbara Fines

SIMEC Fines

JMB fines (BHP)

FMG Blended

Yandi (BHP&Rio)

Atlas Fines

FMG SSF

Robe (Rio Tinto)

Typical Brand Quality Comparison

1. Results based as per metallurgical test work announced to the market 13 September 2016, see ASX

Announcement – 13/09/16 – Metallurgical Update – Positive Results

Data MMI daily iron ore report

On the supply side, global iron ore production totals 1.5 billion tonnes annually of

which approximately 60 million tonnes [4%] is high-grade [67%+ preferred for pellet

production].2

Erik Hedborg, senior iron ore analyst at CRU in London, expects Chinese pellet

demand to grow more than 40% by 2023 to roughly 190 million tonnes, from 140

million tonnes in 2018, and keep rising.3

1. Values quoted are targets, subject to change pending further testwork and analysis during potential Pre-feasibility testwork

2. Source: Research Report by Toronto based research firm Tormont50 (May 2019)

3. Source: Reuters, 20 August 2019

Page 12: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

12

Ore sorting - technology advantage

• Executed an exclusivity agreement with NextOre

• Opportunity to apply Magnetic Resonance sensing and ore sorting

technology developed by CSIRO to increase plant feed grade and

yields

• Sensor continuously detects iron grade of feed and diverts low grade

material to avoid processing of lower grade ore

• Increases average grade of plant feed by up to 50%1

• Currently at commercial scale for Cu and pilot scale for Fe

• Results in lower OPEX and improved capital efficiency

• Desktop evaluation underway with test work and bulk sampling to follow

during PFS

MRA output

controls the

ore diverter

MR

Sensor

Ore

Diverter

Upgraded Ore Waste

1. Values quoted are targets, subject to change pending further testwork and analysis during potential Pre-feasibility testwork

Page 13: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

$0.001

$0.010

$0.100

$1.000

$10.000

$100.000AU$ Value per In-Situ Resource Tonne

Market value per resource tonne indicates rerating potentiaI

Reference – Open source data. Indicative only. Calculation of AUD Value per resource tonne: Market Capital Value/Contained Metal adjusted to 62% Fe13

$17.00 /tonne

Magnetite MinesRazorback Iron Project

$0.003/tonne

Page 14: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

14

The Magnetite Mines Value Proposition

Globally significant iron ore resource in low sovereign-risk jurisdiction✓

Open-access to existing port, road, rail and power infrastructure✓

Conventional processing/beneficiation flowsheet with technology upside✓

Low enterprise value/resource tonne✓

100% project ownership and open to partnerships

✓ Study work– a catalyst for growth and re-rating

Page 15: 18 March 2020 Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference...58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand –but that is changing • In UK and US, peak steel was almost a century

Mr Mark Eames

Director

Magnetite Mines Limited

www.magnetitemines.com