18 march 2020 global iron ore & steel forecast conference...58% of people make up 17% of global...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor PresentationNovember 2019
Innovative Technology
Existing Infrastructure
Globally Significant Orebody
Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference18 March 2020
Disclaimer
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Important Notice
The purpose of this presentation is to provide general information about Magnetite Mines Limited ("MGT"). It is not recommended that any person makes any investment
decision in relation to MGT based on this presentation. This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute "forward-looking statements". Such statements
are only predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to differ materially from
those expressed, implied or projected in any forward-looking statements.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by MGT that the material contained in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for
statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of MGT, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of
the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a
consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or omission therefrom. MGT accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy,
omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made available to a person nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further
information.
Additional Information
This presentation should be read in conjunction with the Annual Report at 30 June 2019 together with any announcements made by MGT in accordance with its
continuous disclosure obligations arising under the Corporations Act 2001. Any references to resources estimations should be read in conjunction with MGT’s Mineral
Resources statement for its Magnetite projects at 30 June 2019 as released to the Australian Securities Exchange on 12 and 20 November 2018. MGT confirms in the
subsequent public report that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the relevant market announcement and, in the
case of estimates of mineral resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue
to apply and have not materially changed. All amounts within this presentation are stated in Australian Dollars consistent with the functional currency of MGT, unless
otherwise stated. Tables contained within this presentation may contain immaterial rounding differences.
Steel usage versus per capita GDP
• Conventional analysis suggests steel
intensity increases as countries develop,
peaking then plateauing (‘peak steel’)
• Other factors raised, such as technology,
‘de-intensification’, recycling, environment
• But China’s pathway has not proved
amenable to traditional intensity or
econometric tools
3
Crowson, P. Intensity of use reexamined. Miner Econ 31, 61–70 (2018);
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Forecasting demand with steel intensity models
…and premature “peak steel” estimates
Is China a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma?
Underestimates during the rise of China… …and premature “peak steel” estimates
• "Humans make mistakes, Chinese demand is going south.“ (Kirill
Chuyko, BCS, AFR Nov 24 2014)
• “China’s steel sector has already entered a period of peaking and
flattening out.” (CISA Chairman Wall Street Daily, February 2015)
• “The increasing market consensus is that China is at, or close to,
reaching the maximum level of steel output and demand slipping
back to just under [800Mt] from 2017 to 2020”. (Morgan Stanley
Reuters February 2015)
• “POSCO Research Institute predicts that China’s crude steel
demand will continue to decline gradually from the peak of 766Mt
in 2013 to 670Mt in 2020” (Asian Steel Watch January 2016)
• “Rio Tinto … is sticking by its widely ridiculed prediction that
Chinese steel production will peak around 1Bt by 2030” (SMH Sep
3 2015)
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Research on China's Steel Demand Using Combined Forecast- International Journal of u- and
e- Service, Science and Technology Vol.8, No.1 (2015), pp.189-200
58% of people make up 17% of global steel demand – but that is changing
• In UK and US, peak steel was almost a
century after industrialisation
• Japan flattened after 1974, 14 years after
industrialisation, actual peak in 2007
• Four regions on a rapid growth path:
– China – 5y growth 21%, 1.4Bn pop
– Other Asia - 5y growth 3%, 1.8Bn pop
– India - 5y growth 27%, 1.4Bn pop
– Africa - 5y growth 13%, 1.8Bn pop
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Long Term Crude Steel Production History(LHS except China RHS)
US UK Japan India Other Asia Africa/ME China
Crude steel production increasing, as well as iron ore trade…
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Regional Crude Steel Production
Traditional steel Africa/Middle East India Other Asia China
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Q42015
Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
Q42016
Q12017
Q22017
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
China quarterly iron ore imports and crude steel production (annualised)
China Crude Steel Production (annualised) China Iron Ore Imports (annualised)
Traditional includes Europe/CIS/Americas/Oceania/Japan
…but supply response muted
• China is confounding predictions
with strong growth
• Rapid growth in developing regions
• Limited supply response
• Expect long term price trends to
continue
• Grade spreads generally increased
– an opportunity for high grade
products
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Razorback is a 3.9Bt resource close to existing infrastructure
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Location
• ~ 240km NE of Adelaide within the Braemar Iron
Formation
• ~ 99km to NEM transmission lines and substation
• ~ 40km from mine site to rail
• ~ 375km rail haul from siding to port
Scoping Study focused on low capital startup
• Low strip ratio
• Long mine life
• Local water and power
• Conventional HPGR/LIMS magnetite flowsheet
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Razorback Iron Project Key Advantages
Key advantages Providing
Existing Rail, Port and Power Infrastructure Low capital cost✓
Soft magnetite ore with simple flowsheetPremium product (68.5% Fe with ~3.3% SiO2)
potential for high and competitive margins ✓
Located in a mining-friendly jurisdiction Low sovereign risk✓
Simple, shallow and low strip ratio pit shell
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Proposed pit shells for the Razorback Iron ProjectRazorback Ridge is the largest outcropping of magnetite
mineralisation in the Braemar Iron Formation
Focussed on high-grade low impurity products
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Fe % 68.5
Silica % 3.3
Alumina % 0.4
Phosphorus % 0.01
Indicative Razorback Iron Project – Fe Concentrate Specs1
55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 67.0% 69.0%
RAZORBACK
Carajas Fines (Vale)
Newman Fines (BHP)
Vale SSF
Vale BBF
PB Fines (RioTinto)
MAC fines (BHP
RTX Fines (Rio Tinto)
Roy Hill
W Pilbara Fines
SIMEC Fines
JMB fines (BHP)
FMG Blended
Yandi (BHP&Rio)
Atlas Fines
FMG SSF
Robe (Rio Tinto)
Typical Brand Quality Comparison
1. Results based as per metallurgical test work announced to the market 13 September 2016, see ASX
Announcement – 13/09/16 – Metallurgical Update – Positive Results
Data MMI daily iron ore report
On the supply side, global iron ore production totals 1.5 billion tonnes annually of
which approximately 60 million tonnes [4%] is high-grade [67%+ preferred for pellet
production].2
Erik Hedborg, senior iron ore analyst at CRU in London, expects Chinese pellet
demand to grow more than 40% by 2023 to roughly 190 million tonnes, from 140
million tonnes in 2018, and keep rising.3
1. Values quoted are targets, subject to change pending further testwork and analysis during potential Pre-feasibility testwork
2. Source: Research Report by Toronto based research firm Tormont50 (May 2019)
3. Source: Reuters, 20 August 2019
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Ore sorting - technology advantage
• Executed an exclusivity agreement with NextOre
• Opportunity to apply Magnetic Resonance sensing and ore sorting
technology developed by CSIRO to increase plant feed grade and
yields
• Sensor continuously detects iron grade of feed and diverts low grade
material to avoid processing of lower grade ore
• Increases average grade of plant feed by up to 50%1
• Currently at commercial scale for Cu and pilot scale for Fe
• Results in lower OPEX and improved capital efficiency
• Desktop evaluation underway with test work and bulk sampling to follow
during PFS
MRA output
controls the
ore diverter
MR
Sensor
Ore
Diverter
Upgraded Ore Waste
1. Values quoted are targets, subject to change pending further testwork and analysis during potential Pre-feasibility testwork
$0.001
$0.010
$0.100
$1.000
$10.000
$100.000AU$ Value per In-Situ Resource Tonne
Market value per resource tonne indicates rerating potentiaI
Reference – Open source data. Indicative only. Calculation of AUD Value per resource tonne: Market Capital Value/Contained Metal adjusted to 62% Fe13
$17.00 /tonne
Magnetite MinesRazorback Iron Project
$0.003/tonne
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The Magnetite Mines Value Proposition
Globally significant iron ore resource in low sovereign-risk jurisdiction✓
Open-access to existing port, road, rail and power infrastructure✓
Conventional processing/beneficiation flowsheet with technology upside✓
Low enterprise value/resource tonne✓
100% project ownership and open to partnerships
✓ Study work– a catalyst for growth and re-rating
✓
Mr Mark Eames
Director
Magnetite Mines Limited
www.magnetitemines.com