17 nov08 rei fernandes
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Road Map for Portugal
Rei Fernandes
Research Group on Energy & Sustainable Development Instituto Superior Técnico
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Overview
Hydrogen Roadmaps
Methodology & Assumptions
Modelling, Results & Impacts
Action PlanShort Term
Medium-Long Term
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
The Hydrogen Economy
HYDROGEN represents a promising way to a more sustainable energy system. However, R&D is still needed to cut costs, improve performance and evaluate advantages and obstacles to the introduction of hydrogen into transport and power generation markets.
Many regions of the world have developed, or are making efforts to prepare a hydrogen roadmap.
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A Hydrogen Roadmap is:
A JOINT ENDEAVOR of industry, government, academia and the public providing a structured process for a coordinated, long-term effort in preparing, introducing and implementing hydrogen into energy and transport systems.
AN IDENTIFICATION INSTRUMENT for the key technologies, products and markets, together with foreseeable obstacles to their development, introduction and use, and the possible measures to be overcome.
AN ASSESSMENT of expected impacts on the market, society and environment.
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A Hydrogen Roadmap is:
A NAVIGATION TOOL for strategic planning and implementation of research development, structural changes and infrastructural investment.
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMUNICATION between all involved stakeholders of different backgrounds, viewpoints and interests.
Provides a national platform to encourage the development of a hydrogen economy
A TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS leading to a master plan with a derived list of actions based on a combination of visions pathway scenarios and systems modeling.
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Origins of PT Roadmap
Origins of Portuguese hydrogen energy roadmap go back to 2003
Group of interested parties led by SRE began negotiations with the Agency for Innovation for a proposal on new energy technologies that facilitate the growth of the hydrogen economy. Government sponsor – not driver
Actual Start – October 20062003-2006 - Portuguese institutions became involved in a series of pan-European hydrogen related research projects.
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HyWays Recommendations
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Methodology
Vision building through Stakeholder participation - HI-POSCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT
Scenarios workshopScenarios developmentConsultation with expertsFinal set of scenarios
MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSISDefinition of stakeholders' panelMulti-criteria mapping interviewsAnalysis of the interviews' results
PATHWAYS & ROADMAPPathways analysis and contribution for the definition of a hydrogen roadmap
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Assumptions
Assumptions are very important Can change the results dramatically
Main AssumptionsFossil Fuel Price evolve over time (but high level of uncertainty)Share of renewable energy in the Hydrogen Production Costs and cost evolution of the Hydrogen technologies (high level of uncertainty, lack of validated sources of information)Ban on nuclear No “conventional” Coal Power Plants without carbon sequestration will be implemented from 2015 onwards
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Scenarios
Baseline scenario of business as usual
High penetration rate
Moderate penetration rate
These scenarios have a mandatory target for hydrogen technologies for the transport, residential and commercial sectors at two different penetration rates
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Penetration Rates
40.0%22.6%7.6%0.7%Moderate penetration
74.5%54.4%23.7%3.3%High penetration
2050204020302020Scenario / Point in Time
1.7%5%0.7%2%0.2%0.5%
>0%0.1%
Moderate penetration
3.3%10%2.7%8%1.3%4%0.3%1%High penetration
ComResComResComResComRes
2050204020302020Scenario
Transport
Stationary
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Bounds
40%33.3%26.7%20%
2050204020302020
Minimum share of renewable energy in hydrogen production
<30%<20%<15%Solar thermochemical cycles
<10%<15%<20%<20%Centralised production with CCS (coal and natural gas)
>7.5%>5%>5%>2.5%Wave
>20%>20%>10%>7.5%Wind
5-10%5-15%5-15%>5%Biomass
2050204020302020Technology/fuel
Technology-specific bounds for hydrogen production
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Models used
TIMES – dynamic cost optimisation model to determine the lowest cost technology solutions to satisfy both the demand and any set of restrictions. It targets technological, environmental and economic impacts. Copert – model for calculating pollutant emissions such as (CO2, CO, NOx. SOx) from the transport sector. It targets environmental impacts.ISIS – input-output model for calculating the social impacts of the introduction of hydrogen.Infrastructure analysis – semi-quantitative process of determining geographical distribution of hydrogen technologies over time.KCAM – fully qualitative systematic process for collecting the views of the stakeholders. Identification of key changes needed for a successful hydrogen introduction in the Portuguese energy system.
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Modelling
Schematic representation of the modelling process
(Adapted from HyWays)
Schematic representation of the TIMES modelling process
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Total Hydrogen Production
Mainly for transport sector
Transport by truck, 90% as compressed hydrogen
Total Hydrogen Production, (PJ/a)
21.2
0.97.1
40.7
4.1
23.6
79.7
55.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
/a
Moderate penetration
High penetration
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Hydrogen Production Mix
H2 production - contribution by technology in %
62.3%
80.0%73.3% 73.3%
66.7% 66.7%60.0% 60.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0% 5.0%
5.0% 5.0%
5.0% 5.0%
10.7%
4.1%6.7% 6.7%
3.3% 3.3%7.5% 7.5%
7.5%
7.5%10.0% 10.0%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
14.5%3.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moderate High Moderate High Moderate High Moderate High
Year
SMR Onsite Biomass Solar Thermocycles Wind (Onsite + Centralised) Waves
2020 2030 2040 2050
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CO2 & GHG Emissions:
CO2 emissions in the Commercial Sector
900
1000
1100
1200
2020 2030 2040 2050
Kto
n/a
BaselineModerate PenetrationHigh Penetration
CO2 emissions in the "Supply" Sector
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2020 2030 2040 2050
Kto
n/a
Baseline
Moderate Penetration
High Penetration
GHG Emissions (Kton/a)Light Passenger Vehicles and Buses
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2020 2030 2040 2050
Kto
n/a
Baseline
Moderate Penetration
High Penetration
Commercial
Supply Sector
Transport
Total GHG emissionsTotal GHG emissions of the system
55000
57000
59000
61000
63000
65000
2020 2030 2040 2050
Kto
n/a
Baseline
Moderate Penetration
High Penetration
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CO2 emissions: & driving cycle
CO2 Emissions / ton
538730224%
425600719%
1305325957%
Urban
Rural
HW
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
CO2
Em
issi
on
s p
er v
ehic
le t
ype
(to
n)
PC LDV HDV Bus Moped Coache
According to
vehicle type
According to
driving cycle
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Astra Modelling Results
Results are a first iteration
POP
MAC
FOT
REM
TRA
WEM
ENV
VFT
Potential Labour Force Population Structure
Dis
po
sab
le In
com
e
Co
nsu
mp
tion
, In
vest
me
nt
in V
ehic
les,
VA
T
GDP, (Un-)Employment, Sectoral Output
Population Change
VK
T
Sectoral Goods Flows
Ca
r F
lee
t
Fuel Price
GDP, Productivity
Exports, Imports
Transport Expenditure, Performance, Time
VAT Revenue Fuel Tax Revenue
GDP, Employment, ....
Fu
el
Pric
e
Emissions, Noise, Accidents
Transport Cost, Time OD
Transport Demand OD
POP = Population Module MAC = Macroeconomics Module REM = Regional Economics Module FOT = Foreign Trade Module
Abbreviations:
TRA = Transport Module ENV = Environment Module VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module WEM = Welfare Measurement Module
ASTRA Modules and Main Interfaces
Generalized Cost OD
Fleet Structure
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Impact on economic indicators
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Impact on Employment
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Overall Impact
Overall macro-economic impacts for Portugal are negative (for the assumptions & bounds chosen!)
H2FCV not cost competitiveHigher investment and running cost for hydrogen vehicle
High level of hydrogen produced from renewablesRenewable strategy may lead to other benefits like reduction of pollutants and improvement of security of supply
Indicators (hydrogen production or fuel cell patents and demonstration projects) Portugal is not well-placed compared to leading countries in these areas
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Next steps
Results are a first iteration
Results differ from HyWays study for other European countriesAssumptions have to be revisited
Reliability has to be proved in an additional study
Closer examination of assumptions & bounds in HyWays & this project
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Remarks
It is not an event Marks the beginning of a processPortugal has gained some experienceHave a team and consortium with considerable capacity
Task is very demandingNeed for resourcesNeed to embrace policy makers
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Actions
What do we need to do?
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
‘20-20-20’ target
European SET Plan:
Fuel cells - key technology for Europe for20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions;
20% share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix;
20% reduction in primary energy use by 2020
"Energy for a Changing World – An Energy Policy for Europe”, the goals of its Lisbon Strategy and the European Council’s Conclusion on a European Energy Strategy for Transport, 29 May 2007
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Governance of the JTI
EE
E EE
R
TG
P HS
C
E
R
T
G
P
H
S
TRANSPORTATION
POWER GENERATION
PORTABLE & MICRO POWER
HYDROGEN PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION
SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
CROSS CUTTING
RESEARCH INSTITUTES
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
C
Public Bodies 50% voting
Private Bodies (Industry Group) 50% voting
The governing board is to represent all major stakeholders
‘Joint Undertaking’ on the basis of Article 171 of the EC Treaty
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FCH JU Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Joint Undertaking
Governing Board Executive Director
Three advisory bodiesScientific Committee (max. 9)
academia, industry & regulatory bodies – cover complete technical domain needed to make strategic science-based recommendations regarding the FCH JU.
FCH States Representatives Group (SRG)one from each MS & associated countries
Stakeholders' General Assemblyopen to allmeets once a year
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EU Regions workshop in Turin
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
KCAM conclusions
Final use main barrier to implementation of all H chains
need many trials & demonstrations to validate technology
Initially, decentralized production of hydrogen eliminates barriers associated with transportationavoids problems for renewable energy, such as availability & cost of connection to electricity grid
Carbon sequestration is in its infancyhigh coststechnical & economic feasibility not yet evident
Central Government needs to take a leading role in the establishment of the Hydrogen Economy
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Actor Groups
AGENTES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Cadeia energética - produção/distribuição 4 4 3 4 5 3 2 4 6 5 6 5 1 5 5 4 4
Gabinetes de engenharia e projecto 5 4 4 5 4 6 0 5 6 6 6 6 2 3 4 5 3
Infra-estrutura 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4
Automóvel 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Governo central 4 6 6 4 6 7 5 5 7 7 7 7 4 6 6 4 6
Entidades locais e regionais 4 4 2 4 5 3 1 4 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 3 4
Governo supranacional 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 1 2 2 2 4
Investigação, universidades e consultoria 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 0 2 2 2 2
Sociedade civil e ONGs 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Associações de Hidrogénio 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 3 5 4 5 4 3 5 5 4 5
Sectores de transportes e logística 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 4
Produção especializada de equip. para H2 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 4 3
Agricultura / Floresta 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Comunicação social 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Construção e gestão imobiliária 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Serviços Financeiros 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0
Outros 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
012345
6+
ocorrênciasocorrênciasocorrênciasocorrências
CADEIA
ocorrênciasocorrênciasocorrências
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Medium-term Prospects
Portugal has a high potential for the production of hydrogen on the basis of renewablesPortuguese industry
Experience in the field of conventional car manufacturing Possibility of successful export orientation in special technology fieldsSome experience with the production of hydrogen
An adequate industry policy may offer the possibility to change the competitiveness situation of Portugal
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Action plan for PT
In order to encourage a sustainable hydrogen economy, the main actions should be developed around players with the capacity for action and influence in the national market of energy Central Government should be encouraged to create a feed-in tariff that encourages and benefits the end use of hydrogen in its various applications The establishment of a regulatory framework that benefits and creates conditions for the use of hydrogen will be a first step to start the expansion of hydrogen.
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Actions up to 2020
Promote H as energy vector where there is no need for dense hydrogen distribution networks;
Central GovernmentEnergy Agencies Industrial users
Create regulatory regime to encourage use of H -Central Govt.
energy agencies to take advantage of regulatory regime
Create incentives for:automotive industry R&D in Universities and Research Centers
Encourage partnerships between Universities & Research Centers & industry
R&D to meet industry needs
No need dense hydrogen distribution network;
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Actions 2020 to 2030
Create Incentives (Central Govt.) for development of small scale end use applications
Develop transmission and distribution network for hydrogen
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Conclusions
Long term: Roadmap can be many thingsComplex or simple
Short term: Get involved: FCH-JUResearch Grouping
State Representatives Group
Medium term: Exploit Portugal's PotentialRenewables
Create favourable conditions Feed-in tarrif
regulatory framework
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Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development
Thank You for your attention
Rei Fernandes [email protected]