17 april 2009 ricardo silva african petroleum resources: the chinese challenge and what to do about...
TRANSCRIPT
17 April 2009
Ricardo Silva
African petroleum resources:
The Chinese challenge and what to do about it
Historical evolution
27 August 1859 – Drake’s well• Titusville, Pennsylvania• 69 feet• 25 bpd
World population 1850:• 1,262,000,000
o Africa: 111,000,000o Asia: 809,000,000o Europe: 276,000,000o North America:26,000,000
Historical evolution
World population (millions)
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
1850 1950 2008
World
Africa
Asia
Europe
Northern America
Oceania
Historical evolution
Life expectancy
Historical evolution
Contribution from oil & gas• Energy:
o Machinery: consumables, food production;o Heating, cooling, lighting;
• Raw materials for production of:o Plastic;o Fertilizers;o Pesticides;o Synthetic fibers;o Etc.
Post-War years
Growth in the importance of oil:• Reconstruction;• Modernization;• Expansion of automobile use;• Luxuries;• Etc.
Developing nations:• China, India, Brazil...
Post-War years Statistics:
• 1000 barrels / second;• Consumption is 3 times higher than
discovery;• Peak in discoveries = 1960;• Production peak?
Most populous nations:
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
China India USA Others
Population
Post-War years
World energy use
Why Africa?
USA• 2007: 21% of US petroleum imports;• January 2009: 54,242,000 barrels of oil;• LNG Projects.
World• 12% of World oil supply;• 10 million bpd;• Potentially 30% share; • Gulf of Guinea producing more than Saudi
Arabia in 10-years’ time?• 8% of World gas reserves;• Algeria supplies 25% of European
consumption;
Why Africa?
Why Africa? Oil and gas nations
• Algeria;• Egypt;• Libya;• Chad;• Sudan;• Nigeria;• Cameroon;• Equatorial Guinea;• Gabon;• Ghana;• Angola;• ...
Why Africa?
Africa’s advantages• Open acreage;• Increased security of offshore oilfields;• Lower level of resource nationalism;• Relative stability;• Lower transport costs and risk of
disruption;• High quality oil;• Huge unexplored resource deposits;• ...
Who’s who of African oil
First comers• Gulf Oil• Shell• BP• TotalFinaElf• Exxon Mobil• Marathon Petroleum• ...
Who’s who of African oil
New comers• Petrobras• CNPC• Gazprom• Sinopec• Tullow Oil• Petronas• ONGC Videsh• RocOil• StatoilHydro• Woodside Petroleum• ...
US presence
What the US offers:• Around 1/3 of:
o The USD 20 billion invested in African E&P since 1990;
o The USD 50 billion estimated to be invested until 2010.
• AFRICOM;• Western-style democracy and
institutions;• Disease control programs;• ...
US presence
What the US expects:• Oil…
o 25% of US imports
• Commitment to Western ideals and principles;
• FCPA compliance; • Liberalized access to reserves;• ...
Chinese connection What China offers:
• Low interest loans and debt relief;• High bonuses;• Technology;• Commitment to infrastructure (railroads,
roads, refineries, pipelines, etc.);• China-Africa Cooperation Forum;• USD 32 billion in trade, growing at an annual
rate of 50% since 2002;• Health assistance;• Cheap commodities;• Joint ventures;• Military assistance (peacekeeping);• ...
Chinese connection
What China expects:• Hydrocarbons (16% from Angola in
February 2009);• Increased political influence;• Export market for Chinese goods and
equipment;• Export market for Chinese labor;• ...
Chinese connection
How strong is China’s influence?• Low production by Chinese NOC;• Low interest of most acreage held by
Chinese companies;• Low return on high “government
investment”;• Lower level of high-tech E&P
knowledge;• Infrastructure quality issues;• Human resources problem;• ...
How to deal with China Increase political, economic and
military involvement; Promotion of energy cooperation; Greater contribution to “local content”; Increase added value; Increase technology transfer; Cultural awareness; Cross-sector approach; Western-Chinese dialogue to improve
African institutions; ...
