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Page 1: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700Washington, DC 20036-5631

202-419-3600(main) 202-419-3608(fax)www.pewresearch.org

Page 2: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

• The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan organization that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world

• Public opinion polling• Social science research• Media content analysis

• We strive to be rigorous, timely and relevant.

• We do not take positions on policy issues.

A “Fact Tank”

Page 3: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Migration of Mexicans Into and Out of Mexico(thousands)

636

433

8141,026

440

479

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009

Out of Mexico

Into Mexico

Source: Mexican National Survey of Occupation and Employment, 2006-2009

Page 4: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Migration of Mexicans Into and Out of the U.S. (thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Source: U.S. Current Population Survey, 2000-2009

New Arrivals

Emigration

Page 5: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions of Mexicans(thousands)

Source: Department of Homeland Security, 2009

New Arrivals

Emigration

1,169

1,523

1,085

1,637

662

809

981

8821,000

'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08

Page 6: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Mexican-Born Population in the U.S.: 1850-2008(thousands)

Source: 1850-1990 -- Gibson, Cambell and Kay Jung, "Historical Census Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States:1850-2000," U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Working Paper No. 81, 2006; 1995-2008 -- Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from augmented March Current Population Surveys adjusted for undercount

13 42 78 222 641 454 760

12,671

9,752

4,500

2,199

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Page 7: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

A Portrait of the Unauthorized Population in the U.S., 2008

Page 8: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by
Page 9: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Growth and Dispersion of UnauthorizedImmigrants, 1990-2008

(millions)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2009

11.9

3.5

1990 2008

All other statesCalifornia

Page 10: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

States with Largest UnauthorizedImmigrant Populations, 2008

(population in thousands)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2009

Estimated Population Range

U.S. Total 11,900 (11,400 - 12,400)

California 2,700 (2,500 - 2,850)Texas 1,450 (1,300 - 1,550)Florida 1,050 (950 - 1,150)New York 925 (800 - 1,050)New Jersey 550 (500 - 600)

Arizona 500 (475 - 550)Georgia 475 (425 - 500)Illinois 450 (375 - 525)North Carolina 350 (300 - 400)Virginia 300 (275 - 325)

Page 11: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Nearly Half of Unauthorized-ImmigrantHouseholds Are Couples with Children

(% of households that are couples with children for each status group)

Note: Couples may be married or cohabitingSource: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations, 2009

35%

47%

21%U.S. born

Legalimmigrants

Unauthorizedimmigrants

Page 12: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

U.S. Population Projections:2005-2050

Page 13: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

U.S. Population, Actual and Projected Under Alternative Scenarios: 1960–2050

(in millions)

Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

180

296

496

438

384

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Actual 1960-2000Higher Immigration AlternativeMain ProjectionLower Immigration Alternative

Page 14: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Foreign-Born Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected: 1850–2050

(% of total)

Note: Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line.Source: Pew Research Center, 2008; Gibson and Jung (2006)

9.7%

14.8%

4.7%

12%

19%

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Page 15: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

U.S. Total Fertility Rate, 1917-2006

1

2

3

4

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Pew Hispanic Center calculations of data from the National Center for Health Statistics

Page 16: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Total Fertility Rates, 2009

2.722.58

2.342.05

1.981.791.78

1.661.58

1.411.41

1.311.21

India

World

Mexico

United States

France

China

Australia

United Kingdom

Canada

Russia

Germany

Italy

Japan

Source: CIA World Factbook, 2009

Page 17: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Population by Race and Ethnicity, Actual and Projected:1960, 2005 and 2050

(% of total)

Note: * indicates race includes only non-Hispanics. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Projections for 2050 indicated by light brown bars. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

67%

13%5%

47%

29%

13% 9%

85%

3.5%11%

0.6%

14%

White* Hispanic Black* Asian*1960 2005 20501960 2005 20501960 2005 2050 1960 2005 2050

Page 18: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Elderly Share of U.S. Population, Actual and Projected: 1960–2050

(% of total)

Note: Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line.Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

8.9%19%

12%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Page 19: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Total Dependency Ratio, Actual and Projected: 1960-2050(children and elderly per 100 persons of working age)

Note: Children are ages 17 or younger. Working ages are 18 to 64. Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line.Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

81 59 72

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Page 20: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Working-Age Population by Race and Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005 and 2050

(% share of population ages 18 to 64)

Note: * indicates race includes only non-Hispanics. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Projections for 2050 indicated by light brown bars. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

68%

12%5%

45%

31%

14% 10%

87%

2.9%10%

0.6%

14%

White* Hispanic Black* Asian*

1960 2005 20501960 2005 20501960 2005 2050 1960 2005 2050

Page 21: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Child Population by Race and Ethnicity,Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005 and 2050

(% share of population 17 and younger)

Note: * indicates race includes only non-Hispanics. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Projections for 2050 indicated by light brown bars. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

59%

16%5%

40% 35%

14% 10%

81%

5.2%12%

0.7%

20%

White* Hispanic Black* Asian*1960 2005 20501960 2005 20501960 2005 2050 1960 2005 2050

Page 22: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Elderly Population by Race and Ethnicity,Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005 and 2050

(% share of population ages 65 years and older)

Note: * indicates race includes only non-Hispanics. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Projections for 2050 indicated by light brown bars. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

82%

8% 3%

63%

17%12% 8%

91%

1.0%7%

0.3%6%

White* Hispanic Black* Asian*

1960 2005 20501960 2005 20501960 2005 2050 1960 2005 2050

Page 23: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Dependency Ratios—Total, Child and Elderly—Actual and Projected:1960–2050

(children and elderly per 100 persons of working age)

Note: Children are ages 17 or younger. Working ages are 18 to 64. Elderly are ages 65 and older. Projections for 2005–2050 indicated by broken line.Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

81725965

4039

1620

32

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Total

Elderly

Child

Page 24: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Dependency Ratio, Actual and ProjectedUnder Alternative Scenarios: 1960–2050

(children and elderly per 100 persons of working age)

Note: Children are ages 17 and younger. Working-ages are 18 to 64. Elderly are ages 65 and older. Source: Pew Research Center, 2008

81

6959

72

75

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Actual 1960-2000

Higher-immigration Alternative

Main Projection

Lower-immigration Alternative

Page 25: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

The Changing Face ofSuburban Schools

Page 26: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Distribution of School Enrollment in Suburban School Districts, by Race and Ethnicity, 2006-07 and 1993-94

(share of suburban enrollment, %)

Note: Enrollment distributions do not include Idaho.Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data (CCD), Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Surveys

72

59

12

15

11

20

5

6

1993-94

2006-07

White Black Hispanic Asian

Page 27: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Isolation Measure of Typical Student Nationally,by Race and Ethnicity, 2006-07 and 1993-94

(own race share of enrollment at schools nationally, %)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data (CCD), Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Surveys

77

52

55

23

82

54

52

22

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

2006-07 1993-94

Page 28: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

The 2008 Election: Most Diverse Electorate Ever

Page 29: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Demographic Composition of Voters,by Race and Ethnicity, 1988 to 2008

(% of voters)

Note: Whites include only non-Hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-Hispanic blacks. Asians include only non-Hispanic Asians. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Asian share not available prior to 1990.Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements data

3.8 4.7 5.4 6.0

1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5

84.9 84.6 82.5 80.7 79.2 76.3

9.8 9.9 10.6 11.5 11.0 12.17.43.6

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

White Black Hispanic Asian

Page 30: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Change in Voter Turnout Rates Among Eligible Voters, 2008 and 2004

(%)

2008 2004Change

(% points)

All 63.6 63.8 -0.2

White 66.1 67.2 -1.1

Black 65.2 60.3 4.9

Hispanic 49.9 47.2 2.7

Asian 47.0 44.6 2.4

Note: Whites include only non-Hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-Hispanic blacks. Asians include only non-Hispanic Asians. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown. Asian share not available prior to 1990.Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements data

Page 31: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Voter Turnout Rates, by Race(%)

66.1

65.2

49.9

47

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

White

Asian

Hispanics

Note: Whites include only non-Hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-Hispanic blacks. Asians include only non-Hispanic Asians. Native Americans and mixed-race groups not shown.Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of Current Population Survey November Supplements Percent of Eligible voters

Black

Page 32: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

Voter Turnout Rates, 2008

46.947.1

47.9

51.860.7

61.563.664.2

65.767.968.8

Asian female

Asian male

Hispanic male

Hispanic female

Black male

Male

All eligible voters

White male

Female

White female

Black female

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of Current Population Survey November Supplements Percent of Eligible voters

Page 33: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

2008 Presidential Vote

62%

67%

95%

43%

35%

31%

4%

55%

Asian

Hispanic

Black

White

Obama/Biden McCain/Palin

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN

2008 Presidential Vote, by Race and Ethnicity(%)

Page 34: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by

2008 Presidential Vote

45%

50%

52%

66%

53%

49%

46%

32%

65+

45-64

30-44

18-29

Obama/Biden McCain/Palin

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN

2008 Presidential Vote, by Age(%)

Page 35: 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036-5631 202 ...€¦ · Source: Pew Hispanic Center Analysis of 2008 exit poll results as reported by CNN 2008 Presidential Vote, by