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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 171.50 160.00

GWCS 53.20 56.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,460.02 3.1 18.0

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,640 12,000 12,425

Support 11,430 11,230 10,900

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: As expected, the Index bounced strongly and closed above the 11,430 level. Last session’s traded volumes were higher as more buying appetite came in. The MACD on the daily chart is deep below the zero line. Although that is considered as a negative indication, we could see the MACD easing up from these extreme levels. Also, the RSI is struggling to push out of the oversold area. In conclusion, the Index is still looking for a direction. We do note that it is essential for traders to watch the Index stay above the previous low of around 10,900. Expected Target Level: 11,600 Only if the 11,540 level is breached up. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900 A break below means that the bounce was shallow and the bear leg is still in action.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 16 Dec 14 15 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 1,008.1 957.1 5.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 634.0 614.8 3.1

Volume (mn) 25.2 22.5 12.0

Number of Trans. 11,034 9,804 12.5

Companies Traded 41 43 -4.7

Market Breadth 37:4 0:43 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,092.52 3.1 24.9

All Share Index 2,925.20 3.2 25.0

Banks 3,021.62 4.3 32.0

Industrials 3,774.96 2.8 24.2

Transportation 2,114.15 1.9 25.6

Real Estate 2,075.13 1.8 17.3

Insurance 3,297.11 1.2 16.8

Telecoms 1,355.12 1.6 33.9

Consumer 6,340.13 4.6 27.3

Al Rayan Islamic 3,788.59 3.5 24.7

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

AHCS 11.55 0.3 9.2

MPHC 27.15 0.2 10.8

ERES 13.77 0.0 11.3

SIIS 13.30 0.5 14.7

QGMD 9.00 -2.3 14.9

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 171.50 2.08 483,815

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 173.00 175.00 177.00

Support 164.00 160.50 156.00

Commentary

Overview: The name displayed a strong bounce above the QR160.00 price level, gaining over 8% between the previous low to reach the high of the last session. This bounce encountered strong resistance at the QR173.00 level. The name is trading below its moving averages; it is still under the short-term trend downtrend line; the MACD is below the zero line and still pointing downward. The RSI just bounced of the oversold area but not in divergence against the price. All the aforementioned are bearish indicators showing that the name may continue its trip south. Only a break above the QR180.00 price could signify a change in the short-term trend. Other than that, any bounce on the name should be treated as an exit opportunity. Expected Price Retreat: QR160.00 This is the first expected when the QR168.00 is broken below.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 53.20 3.30 1,308,736

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 54.00 56.50 58.30

Support 50.00 47.00 44.50

Commentary

Overview: GWCS got hit hard with the rest of the market over the past week. Good news is that the name is stabilizing above an important support at QR50.00. At this level, the 200SMA meets the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the medium-term uptrend line stemming from last February, and the lower side of the short-term downtrend channel. The RSI and the MACD are still bearish on the daily. However, on the hourly, the MACD and the RSI are showing signs of recovery that might extend for a few sessions. Expected Target Price: QR56.50 – QR58.30 The trigger for this trade is a sustained break above the QR54.00 price for at least an hour through the session. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR50.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,460.02 10,874.45 11,057.68 11,170.88 11,354.10 11,537.33 11,650.53 11,833.75 13,276.28 13,450.92 12,936.29

Total Return 17,092.52 16,219.15 16,492.43 16,661.26 16,934.54 17,207.82 17,376.65 17,649.93 19,801.45 20,061.92 19,259.08

All Share 2,925.20 2,769.61 2,818.06 2,847.99 2,896.45 2,944.90 2,974.83 3,023.29 3,366.40 3,404.74 3,283.05

Al Rayan Islamic 3,788.59 3,547.16 3,620.13 3,665.21 3,738.18 3,811.15 3,856.23 3,929.20 4,470.80 4,555.69 4,285.75

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 41.60 39.13 39.99 40.52 41.38 42.24 42.77 43.63 49.88 52.74 50.23

CBQK 66.00 63.33 64.25 64.82 65.73 66.65 67.22 68.13 71.96 71.06 68.62

DHBK 52.50 50.17 50.93 51.40 52.17 52.93 53.40 54.17 58.10 59.09 60.19

QIBK 91.00 82.87 85.62 87.32 90.07 92.82 94.52 97.27 107.99 111.05 98.92

QIIK 74.80 68.67 70.46 71.57 73.37 75.16 76.27 78.07 84.78 86.41 83.64

Insurance

QATI 76.20 73.67 75.12 76.02 77.47 78.92 79.82 81.27 94.17 95.00 84.63

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 102.00 93.67 96.72 98.61 101.67 104.72 106.61 109.67 125.47 124.94 102.24

Industrials

IQCD 171.50 161.30 164.70 166.80 170.20 173.60 175.70 179.10 188.36 186.89 184.81

QEWS 172.50 164.57 167.32 169.02 171.77 174.52 176.22 178.97 187.43 187.30 184.48

GISS 79.90 62.70 67.63 70.67 75.60 80.53 83.57 88.50 113.46 116.85 102.99

QIGD 35.60 31.87 33.01 33.72 34.87 36.01 36.72 37.87 47.83 52.82 55.89

Real Estate

BRES 39.00 35.53 36.58 37.23 38.28 39.33 39.98 41.03 44.80 43.07 40.50

UDCD 21.80 19.27 20.03 20.50 21.27 22.03 22.50 23.27 26.51 27.86 25.78

ERES 13.77 13.15 13.51 13.72 14.08 14.44 14.65 15.01 18.65 19.39 21.47

MRDS 17.30 14.83 15.58 16.04 16.78 17.53 17.99 18.73 22.54 22.76 20.13

Telecommunication

ORDS 112.70 104.37 107.19 108.94 111.77 114.59 116.34 119.17 121.72 125.92 134.26

VFQS 15.15 13.52 14.13 14.51 15.12 15.73 16.11 16.72 19.03 19.97 18.24

Transportation

QGTS 21.05 19.76 20.21 20.49 20.95 21.40 21.68 22.14 23.72 24.10 23.30

QNNS 90.00 83.87 85.81 87.02 88.97 90.91 92.12 94.07 98.06 96.56 95.43 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.