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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 27 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

IQCD 189.50 Flat 191.50

CBQK 73.90 Up 74.60

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,518.35 0.7 29.7

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 13,550 13,660 13,700

Support 13,450 13,240 12,900

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index rebounded from the 13,450 support level on weak volumes in vs. the previous session. It is imperative for the Index to stay above the mentioned support level to continue on the expected range between the 13,500 and the 13,800 levels. Over the short-term, that the RSI on the intraday chart is making a positive divergence. Positive divergence is when the price makes lower drops while the RSI makes higher lows. This divergence could signify the continuation to the 13,550 resistance level. Expected Target: 13,550 The level can be used to start exiting winning positions. Suggested Stop-Loss: 13,400 Closing below may dip the Index to 13,320.

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 26 Nov 14 25 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 650.1 3,626.0 -82.1

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 735.1 731.3 0.5

Volume (mn) 8.0 31.1 -74.3

Number of Trans. 5,272 11,657 -54.8

Companies Traded 42 43 -2.3

Market Breadth 22:18 10:31 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,162.50 0.7 40.4

All Share Index 3,435.94 0.6 42.3

Banks 3,447.63 0.7 49.3

Industrials 4,412.73 0.8 34.8

Transportation 2,410.70 1.3 47.2

Real Estate 2,733.06 0.3 44.2

Insurance 3,943.40 1.6 30.5

Telecoms 1,460.57 0.2 33.5

Consumer 7,677.39 -0.3 67.3

Al Rayan Islamic 4,580.22 0.5 44.1

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 198.40 1.7 72.7

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

NLCS 24.24 0.5 23.2

QATI 92.50 2.5 26.1

VFQS 18.15 0.8 28.3

KCBK 22.29 6.3 29.0

QIGD 45.70 0.4 29.1

QSE Index (30Min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 189.50 1.23 611,068

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 191.50 194.00 198.00

Support 188.00 185.20 183.00

Commentary

Overview: The industrials’ sector leader experienced a sharp drop, shaving over 6% since its latest high of QR200.00. This drop was stopped at the QR188.00 which is a strong support; this support was built from the previous troughs seen in the daily chart. Last session built what is known as the Bullish Harami. It is the small bullish candle that proceeds a large bearish one and positioned bearish candle’s premises. It is a weak bullish pattern and needs a close above the previous session’s high to prove its validity. The MACD on the daily is above the zero line which is positive. The hourly chart shows the MACD under the zero line but its Histogram is gaining momentum. As a result, we expect a bounce from the current levels. Expected Target: QR191.50 – QR194.00 A break above the QR190.00 will initiate a buying position. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR188.00 A breach below will drag the price lower, possibly to the QR185.20.

IQCD (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

IQCD (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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CBQK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 73.90 0.96 173,963

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 74.60 75.00 76.80

Support 73.00 72.00 71.00

Commentary

Overview: The commercial bank is bouncing off a strong support above the QR73.00. at the level, we see that previous bottoms were built through October and the 50SMA is also located at this point. Traders can take advantage of a possible bounce from these levels upward. The MACD on the daily is above the zero line and the RSI is bouncing off the neutral zone. The Histogram on the hourly is gaining momentum. All the previous indicates a possible positive momentum in the face of the drop the bank experienced over the past few sessions. Expected Target: QR74.60 – QR75.00 A break above the QR74.00 is the main condition to take a long position for the short term. Suggested Stop-Loss: QR73.00 A drop below will drag the price to the QR71.00 level.

CBQK (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

CBQK (Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,518.35 13,370.71 13,413.01 13,439.14 13,481.44 13,523.74 13,549.87 13,592.17 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,162.50 19,942.29 20,005.38 20,044.36 20,107.45 20,170.54 20,209.52 20,272.61 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,435.94 3,402.67 3,412.20 3,418.09 3,427.62 3,437.15 3,443.04 3,452.57 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,580.22 4,540.87 4,552.25 4,559.28 4,570.67 4,582.05 4,589.08 4,600.47 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financial Services

MARK 49.85 48.85 49.14 49.31 49.60 49.89 50.06 50.35 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 73.90 72.63 73.09 73.37 73.83 74.29 74.57 75.03 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 59.80 58.20 58.66 58.94 59.40 59.86 60.14 60.60 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 105.80 104.60 105.17 105.53 106.10 106.67 107.03 107.60 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 85.00 84.07 84.60 84.93 85.47 86.00 86.33 86.87 88.56 85.96 81.50 Insurance

QATI 92.50 90.17 91.31 92.02 93.17 94.31 95.02 96.17 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 133.80 131.40 132.09 132.51 133.20 133.89 134.31 135.00 129.47 111.71 91.13 Industrials

IQCD 189.50 186.10 187.17 187.83 188.90 189.97 190.63 191.70 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 191.30 188.57 189.64 190.30 191.37 192.44 193.10 194.17 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 112.80 107.00 108.87 110.03 111.90 113.77 114.93 116.80 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 45.70 44.03 44.76 45.21 45.93 46.66 47.11 47.83 56.91 57.11 56.10 Real Estate

BRES 50.30 48.83 49.25 49.51 49.93 50.35 50.61 51.03 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 27.45 26.95 27.14 27.26 27.45 27.64 27.76 27.95 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 18.50 18.24 18.35 18.42 18.53 18.64 18.71 18.82 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 22.69 22.33 22.49 22.58 22.74 22.90 22.99 23.15 23.99 21.43 18.54 Telecommunication

ORDS 117.50 114.70 115.85 116.55 117.70 118.85 119.55 120.70 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.15 17.58 17.76 17.86 18.03 18.21 18.31 18.48 21.16 20.27 17.20 Transportation

QGTS 24.08 23.67 23.80 23.89 24.03 24.16 24.25 24.39 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 101.70 98.10 99.17 99.83 100.90 101.97 102.63 103.70 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.