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Home > Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Current Tensions Over Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia, Azerbaijan and the CurrentTensions Over Nagorno-KarabakhCreated Apr 25 2011 - 07:21

DMITRY ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty ImagesRussian President Dmitri Medvedev (C) meetsAzerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (R) and ArmenianPresident Serzh Sarkisian on March 5

SummaryAzerbaijan, Armenia and Russia held a foreign minister-level meeting April 22 in Moscow todiscuss several issues, but chiefly the dispute over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Tensionsbetween Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region reached a peak recently, when the Armenianpresident announced his intention to be on the first flight to a reopened airport in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan threatened to shoot down any flight into the territory. Tensions haveeased some since then, but as the date of the airportʼs reopening approaches, diplomatic andmilitary events could indicate what will happen at the slated reopening.

AnalysisAzerbaijan, Armenia and Russia held a foreign minister-level meeting in Moscow on April 22 todiscuss various issues, chief among them the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Thismeeting follows a peak in tensions in the southern Caucasus on March 30, when ArmenianPresident Serzh Sarkisian announced he would be on the first flight from Yerevan to Khankendi(known in Armenia as Stepanakert) in Nagorno-Karabakh when an airport reopens there on May9, and Azerbaijan threatened to shoot down any flight into the territory.

Since Sarkisianʼs announcement, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have decreasedslightly amid a flurry of diplomatic activity and military exercises by both sides. While thelikelihood of a new war breaking out in the near future remains low, several factors bear

watching as the date approaches for the first scheduled flight to the reopening airport inNagorno-Karabakh.

(click here to enlarge image)

Controversial Announcements

Nagorno-Karabakh has long been an issue of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thecountries fought a war over the territory from 1988 to 1994. Since then the conflict hassimmered, resulting in lingering animosity between Yerevan and Baku and in sporadic skirmishesalong the Line of Contact. This conflict showed signs of escalating when plans were made for anairport to reopen near Nagorno-Karabakhʼs capital — the airport has been closed since 1992,after full-scale war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan — and peaked when Sarkisianannounced his plans to be on the first flight to the airport. Azerbaijanʼs previous announcementthat it reserved the right to shoot down any flights that crossed its airspace illegally, which theflight from Armenia to the airport in Nagorno-Karabakh would have to do, implied that if Sarkisianfollowed through on his plans, he would be assassinated, and this would constitute an act of war.This then led to rumors of an impending war between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the airportʼsreopening.

However, this aroused the concern and condemnation of various players with stakes in theregion, such as Russia, Turkey and the United States, and Azerbaijan sought to defuse tensionsshortly thereafter. On April 1, a spokesperson for Azerbaijanʼs Foreign Ministry stated thatAzerbaijan would not take action against civilian planes, adding that Baku has never used forceagainst civilian flights and never intends to. But the Foreign Ministry did reiterate that flights tothe occupied territories of Azerbaijan are “illegal and dangerous,” without further elaboration.

Recent Diplomatic and Military Activities

There has been a significant amount of activity since the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministryannouncement, particularly in terms of defense-related meetings between Azerbaijan and Turkeyand Armenia and Russia. On April 1, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian met withAlexander Postanikov, the commander of the continental troops of Russiaʼs armed forces, todiscuss military cooperation issues. Then, on April 7, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev

visited Ankara to meet with Turkish Minister of National Defense Vecdi Gonul. These meetingsare indicative of the growing ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, which signed a strategicpartnership agreement in December 2010, on the one hand, and Armenia and Russia, whichstrengthened their military alliance by extending Russiaʼs lease of the Gyumri military base inArmenia to 49 years, on the other. Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be boosting their alliancestructures with their regional backers, possibly in anticipation of a crisis in which they might needto rely on these alliances.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have also conducted several military drills near Nagorno-Karabakh. OnApril 1, Armenian troops held drills in the Agdam region near Nagorno-Karabakh, and on April14, several fighter jets and military helicopters from the Azerbaijani air force held militaryexercises near the front-line zone. Also on April 14, Armenia began artillery exercises in theAgdam region immediately after Azerbaijani combat aircraftʼs flights along the front line. Thesedrills and military meetings indicate that Armenia and Azerbaijan are drawing the battle lines, andboth countries are looking for signs of solidarity from Russia and Turkey, respectively. Moreimportant, the two sides are trying to create the perception of strength to gain leverage as theKhankendi airportʼs reopening approaches.

However, these recent activities are hardly indications that a full-scale war is looming. Armeniaand Azerbaijan both frequently conduct military drills, and though meetings have reached higherlevels in recent weeks, such delegations meet regularly under normal circumstances. Moreimportant, the fundamental constraints that have kept war from breaking out until now are still inplace; Azerbaijan is still not at a point in its military buildup where it would feel comfortablelaunching an offensive against Armenia, particularly when Baku knows that such action wouldlikely result in Russiaʼs defense of Armenia. Furthermore, the international community, includingthe United States, would condemn such an action. In short, moving too aggressively holds morerisks than benefits for Baku.

Developments to Watch For

As May 9 approaches, several important developments will give indications as to what willhappen when the Khankendi airport reopens, if it reopens at all. First, Russia has been eerilyquiet on the airport issue since Sarkisianʼs announcement, which could be part of an effort onMoscowʼs part to put pressure on Baku and keep it distracted from pursuing independentlyminded activities harmful to Russiaʼs interests. Russia is the most influential external player inthe Caucasus, and therefore any statements out of Russia as the reopening approaches will beimportant to monitor. It is likely that Russia is working with both Armenia and Azerbaijan behindthe scenes, as that is what Moscow does best when dealing with issues between the two.

Second, it is important to watch for any official statements or activity from the United States. Aplanning conference on military cooperation between Azerbaijan and the United States will beheld April 27-28 in Baku, and this will be key to watch given a recent cancellation of military drillsbetween Azerbaijan and the United States. This cancellation showed Bakuʼs dissatisfaction withWashington over the latterʼs level of commitment to the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation processjust as frictions are escalating with Armenia, as well as over arms sales and other issues. Therelationship between Azerbaijan and the United States is shaky, as Washington is jugglingseveral issues and trying to rely more on Turkey to manage frictions in the Caucasus.

In addition, any legal arbitration or rulings over the status of the airport from the InternationalCivil Aviation Organization could affect the timing of the first flight, if the flight is allowed at all.Finally, any attacks on or manipulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh airport infrastructure leading up

to the first flight, whether directly from Azerbaijan or through external or proxy groups, couldcancel the airportʼs reopening altogether.

The heightened level of activity in the Caucasus is only set to increase in the coming weeks, andthese diplomatic and military developments surrounding the controversial airport reopening couldhave significant implications for the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Politics Armenia Azerbaijan

Source URL: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110422-armenia-azerbaijan-and-current-tensions-over-nagorno-karabakh

Links:[1] http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110331-potential-flash-point-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan[2] http://web.stratfor.com/images/khankendi_1280.jpg[3] http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110331-why-russia-and-turkey-are-looking-towards-armenia-and-azerbaijan[4] http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101221-turkey-and-azerbaijan-achieve-strategic-partnership[5] http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110316-armenias-upcoming-protest-and-russias-position[6] http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110309-tensions-growing-between-azerbaijan-and-iran[7] http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110221-azerbaijans-position-europes-energy-diversification-plans