120 exchange street portland maine 1 october 2010 maine voter preference study – wave iii...

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October 2010 120 Exchange Street

Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com

Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave III

Prepared for:Maine Today Media

October 2010

Focus Groups Surveys Public Opinion Polling

120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101

Telephone: 207-772-4011 • Fax: 207-772-7027

www.criticalinsights.com

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Introduction

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Method & Approach

• A random, statewide poll of 605 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted on October 10th and 11th as a follow up to earlier measurements conducted for Maine Today Media in mid- and late-September, respectively.

• As with prior waves of measurement, the survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media.

• Live interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system.

• In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to:– Be a registered voter in the State of Maine;– Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and– Claim they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2nd.

• Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights.– Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender, age, and

geographic distribution of Maine voters.– A complete profile of survey respondents may be found at the conclusion of this document.

Sample Size Data Collection Period

Margin of ErrorLength of Interview90% 95%

605 October 10th and 11th, 2010 ±3.4 ±4.0 8 minutes

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Key Results

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Voter Perspectives onPublic Assistance Programs in Maine

• In each wave of measurement of this poll for Maine Today Media, rotating items of interest relevant to the upcoming election were included.

• While Wave II of measurement focused on issues surrounding education and the gubernatorial election, the current poll focused on voters’ perspectives surrounding public assistance programs in Maine, particularly attitudes and beliefs about these programs.

• Prior to being presented with any questions in this area, all respondents were provided with the following introductory material:

Next, I’m going to ask you several questions about government assistance programs in Maine.

Sometimes referred to as “welfare programs,” these programs are designed to promote or assure the basic well-being of those documented to be in need. These

efforts aim to improve a person or family’s financial status and employment situation, as well as provide access to basic healthcare needs.

Depending on the question, sometimes I’ll refer to these programs as “welfare” or as “government assistance.”

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Voter Perspectives onManagement of Public Assistance Programs

Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy?

22 21

36

13

4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

1--> Poor 2 3 4 5--> Excellent Don't know

Percent

A majority of voters polled give Maine an average or lesser grade for its management of public assistance programs.

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Voter Perspectives onManagement of Public Assistance Programs, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate

10

24 21

25

50

26

61

24

45

4 3 6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

LePage Mitchell Cutler

Net Favorable Average Net Unfavorable Don't know

Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy?

A majority of LePage supporters give Maine an unfavorable rating for management of public assistance programs.

Close to half of Cutler supporters responded similarly, while only one-quarter of Mitchell supporters gave Maine an unfavorable rating.

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Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with…

“Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.”

812

2017

39

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

1--> Completelydisagree

2 3 4 5--> Completelyagree

Don't know

Percent

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate

74

4338

16

24 33

10

29 25

1 3 3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Net Agree Neutral Net Disagree Don't know


“Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.”

A disproportionate bloc of LePage supporters agree that poor people in Maine have become too dependent on these programs.

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“The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.”

69

27

20

35

10

20

40

60

80

100

1--> Completelydisagree

2 3 4 5--> Completelyagree

Don't know

Percent

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate

36

7466

35

18

22

28

711

1 1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Net Agree Neutral Net Disagree Don't know


“The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.”

While strong majorities of those supporting both Mitchell and Cutler agree that Maine has a social responsibility to care for those in need, significantly fewer LePage supporters agree.

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance:“Gaming the System”

76% or more6%

26-50%31%

25% or less32%

Don't know16%

51-75%15%

A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”?

A majority of voters believe that no more than half of those receiving public assistance are “gaming the system.”

A smaller bloc of voters (21%) believe that more than half of recipients are taking advantage of the system.

The remaining 16% of voters don’t know or declined to answer.

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance: “Gaming the System,”by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate

1118 13

22

46

40

34

27

28

22

9

15

411

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


76% ore more

51-75%

26-50%

25% or less

Don't know

A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”?

When asked to estimate the number of people “gaming the system” in Maine, LePage supporters tend to be more pessimistic than are supporters of either Cutler or Mitchell.

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance

Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work?

Don't know

17%Yes

20%

No

63%

Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?

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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance,by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate

60

3038

33

59 47

7 11 16

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Yes No Don't know

Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work?

1625 24

73 55 59

1121 18

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Yes No Don't know

Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?

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Perception of Most Effective Manager of Maine’s Public Assistance Programs

Which of the current candidates for Governor do you believe would be most effective at managing the state’s welfare programs?

23

4

6

13

22

32

0 20 40 60 80 100

Don't know

None/All the same

Other *

Eliot Cutler

Libby Mitchell

Paul LePage

Percent

* Includes aggregated totals for Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, respectively.

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Respondent Profile: Wave III

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Respondent Gender and Age

Male47%

Female53%

Could you tell me how old you are? %

18 to 44 years old 42%

45 to 64 years old 41

65 years old or over 17

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Family Status

Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home?

What is your current marital status? %

Married 75%

Single 12

Divorced 5

Widowed 4

Living as part of a couple 2

Don’t know/Refused 2

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SES: Level of Education & Income

What is the highest grade or year of regular school or college that you have completed? %

High school or less 26%

Post high school, technical 2

Some college 22

College degree 34

Some graduate school 2

Graduate school degree 13

Other 2

And which one of the following broad groups includes your entire household’s approximate total yearly income before taxes? %

Less than $25,000 8%

$25,000 to just under $50,000 17

$50,000 to just under $75,000 17

$75,000 to just under $100,000 14

$100,000 or more 11

No answer/Refused to specify 33

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Political Party and Ideology

In what political party are you registered to vote? %

Democratic 34%

Republican 33

Unenrolled/Independent 25

Green Ind. or other party 2


Thinking about your political leanings, would you say you are… %

Very conservative 16%

Somewhat conservative 26

Moderate 30

Somewhat liberal 17

Very liberal 6


120 exchange street portland maine 1 october 2010 maine voter preference study – wave iii...

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