11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific

The weekly targets from the past few days are not far below, but at this rate, and due to the timeframe of those charts (weekly), it could take, well, week(s) to get there. Venturing back into the weeds to see if anything makes sense, I think we will probably continue with the wiggly party instead of breaking down. There are two probable short-term outcomes in the Diagonal proposed last week. Option 1 is that we already completed wave 3 of the diagonal on 11/13 and are on wave 4. Wave 4 targets the descending trend line of the diagonal (955-960). Option 1

Option 2A involves continuing down in 3 waves from the high made into the close today to the descending bottom channel of the diagonal (814ish), then turning back up to start wave 4. This would complete a very complex wave 3 of the diagonal. Wave 4 will target the descending trend line above in 3 waves.

11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific

A slight variation of this, option2B (shown), retraces roughly half of the move up today then pushes up to 870-880 and turns back down targeting the bottom of the diagonal. I would then expect wave 4 to turn up from 814 and target the descending trend line above in 3 waves. A strong move through 880 favors Option 1 above. Option2B

The reversal into the close tilts the bias toward option1. Either way, price action is going to remain wild and choppy. A breakdown out the bottom the diagonal negates this thesis. The targets I have provided over the past few days are still valid in the event this happens. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he

11/18/20088:05 PM Pacific

writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.