11/12ths !!!11/12ths of your year 1 roll is the key to managing next year’s staffing and to predict what the March 2012 recalculation funding will look like…

Next Year’s Staffing and FundingPrimary & Contributing Schools

This powerpoint is a generic revision of a presentation to principals of Quake affected Christchurch schools in August 2011 – Hope it helps rather than confuses!Gavin Price, September 2011 (gavin.price@xtra.co.nz)

ISSUES

1. 1 July Predictions done properly?2. Roll Review by 15 October? 3. Negative impact of March Confirmation Notice

(No New Entrant adjustment & how to appeal)4. Initial Funding v March Recalculation Funding –

what to put in budget?5. Roll Change Applications

Predicted resourcing rollThe resourcing roll predicted by the Ministry is used to calculate provisional staffing and indicative operational funding for the coming year.This resourcing roll is established by using the lesser of the Ministry’s prediction and the board’s prediction submitted on its 1 July roll return at each year level.

Primary schools

Entrant year and Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 entrant year – the same number of new entrant students the school had enrolled at March. New Entrant Adjustment – based on an adjustment of eleven twelfths times the number of entrant year students and Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 above, rounded up to the nearest whole number, to make provision for the number of new entrants likely to be enrolled between 1 March and 10 October. All other year levels and students in Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 - the latest 1 July roll, the same number of students at each year level moved on one year level. Note: For contributing primary schools, the year 7 roll is based on the boards prediction and the year 8 roll is set to nil (except where the board has permission from the Minister of Education to retain its year 7 and 8 students for the purposes of bilingual education).

Intermediate schools

Year 7 and students in Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 in year 7 – the same proportion of available enrolments from each contributing school as the school received in the current year. Year 8 and students in Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 – the school’s latest 1 March to 1 March progression rate for year 7 - 8 or immersion levels, applied to the latest 1 March year 7 enrolments or immersion levels.

Special schools

Entrant year Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 entrant year – the same number of new entrant students the school had enrolled at 1 March.

All other year levels and students in Māori immersion levels 1 and 2 - using the latest 1 July roll, the same number of students at each year level moved on one year level.

Note: Some special schools have a notional roll. Please refer to the School Staffing Order in Council Schedules for information regarding the staffing of these schools. The Order is available at www.legislation.govt.nz under the Regulations section.

M 3

Use this figure from your M3 Headcount (as a minimum) for the Year one prediction for next year and copy it into box 9.3 as your March to October expected NE roll growth figure

J 3 2010

And use these numbers for predictions at other year levels (see Question 9 slide below)

Question 9 – Predicted rolls (NZPF SUGGESTED PROCESS FOR CONTRIBUTING & PRIMARY SCHOOLS PREDICTIONS

9.1 What is your predicted 1 March 2011 regular student roll? (NEVER USE “In House” Year Levels in any Ministry return - including Roll Change applications) Exclude International Fee-paying students.

9.2 What are your estimated 1 March 2012 and 1 March 2013 rolls? Exclude International Fee-paying students.

Funding Year Level Predicted

regular Student Roll

Year

Estimated Student Roll for 1 March

Year 1 ←(Yr 1 Roll from M3 here) 2012

Year 2 ←(Yr 1 Roll from J3 here) Year 3 ←(Yr 2 roll from J3 here)

2013

Year 4 ←(Yr 3 roll from J3 here) Year 5 ←(Yr 4 roll from J3 here) Year 6 ←(Yr 5 roll from J3 here)

Year 7 (and Contributing!)

←(Yr 6 roll from J3 here, or a Yr 7 prediction if Contributing) 9.3

What are your estimated New Entrant enrolments from 1 March 2011 to 10 October 2011? Exclude international fee-paying students.

Year 8 ←(Yr 7 roll from J3 here)

TOTAL

Year Estimated New Entrant enrolments from

1 March 2011 to 10 October 2011 (and Yr 1 roll from M3 here) → New

Entrants

NB These are minimum prediction suggestions for each year level. It is the same process that MOE uses to make an initial prediction for each year level for your school for the following year from Tables M3 (March Headcount) and J3 (July Headcount). (See Chap 2 of the Funding Staffing and Allowances Handbook). This process is also consistent with one of the predicting options offered by MOE in the 2009 “Guidelines for School Roll Returns” Gavin Price, July 2010 gavin.price@xtra.co.nz 027 607 6220

This contributing school has 59 pupils who are classified “Year 5” by the School.MOE year levels printed alongside, however, show that there are 17 MOE Year 6 pupils in the group!!!If the school uses 59 as its Year 6 prediction for next year it will be staffed on just 42 Year 6s, as MOE can see that it now has just 42 Year 5s on 1 July.To get these 17 pupils into the prediction, the school needs to put at least 17 as the Year Seven prediction, and definitely not count them as year 6 pupils.MORAL: Only use M3 and J3 to complete Question 9 on the July Return, and put a good healthy Year 7 prediction! (25% to 30% of your normal yearly cohort perhaps…) if a contributing school.

2011 2012 2012

ACTUAL PREDICTION PROVISIONAL

Yr 4 0

Yr 5 4 3 0

Yr 6 5 1 1

Yr 7 2 0 0

TOTAL 11 4 1

HOW BAD CAN YOUR PREDICTING BE!This full primary school thinks it will be staffed for 4 children at Year 5 and 6 and 7 next year as it used 3 yr 5s and 1 yr 6 in its July predictions. It will be staffed for just 1 yr 6 child!If you cannot see why, ask me or you might end up in this state too!(Of course by rolling over its Yr 5, 6 & 7 pupils it could have been staffed on 11 pupils at year 6, 7 and 8 next year.)

Review of July Predictions for 2012(If your July Return has been sent in, but you have not yet received your provisional staffing notice)

Don’t wait for your provisional staffing notice if this Powerpoint suggests you have understated next year’s numbers at any year level – ring your staffing officer now to explain where things are incorrect.

If you get no support there is always a Provisional Roll review process to consider after you receive your September provisional staffing notice (before 15 October).

2011 Provisional Staffing Roll Review FormThis form is for the use of school boards seeking a review of their provisional staffing roll. Boards may apply in writing for a review of their provisional staffing roll if they consider there are other factors impacting on the Ministry’s prediction that may not have been taken into account. Before completing this form•School boards will be required to establish that the Ministry’s estimate of the total provisional staffing roll is at least 5% at variance with that of the school before a review will be undertaken.  •Clear and unequivocal evidence establishing this variance will be required before the Ministry will consider approving a change.•Reviews must be received by the Ministry of Education by Friday 15 October 2010. 

The “rules” for a Roll Review . . .

School prediction Ministry prediction Current 2010 roll

Regular students

Adult students

Māori medium* Regular students

Adult students Māori medium* Regular students

Year 1 *

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Year 11

Year 12

Year 13

Total ***•Māori medium: students who are taught in Māori for more than 12.5 hours per week at Level 1 and Level 2.

*** When you receive your Provisional Staffing notice -Add 11/12ths of the Year 1 roll (*) to the total on this form and compare with 1.05 times the Provisional Staffing roll to see whether a Roll Review Application (5% variance) is warranted.

To establish that the Ministry’s estimate of the total provisional staffing roll is at least 5% at variance with that of the school fill in the school prediction below, including the 11/12ths factor . . !

April 2009 Flyer Article from John ClarkDear Principal and Board Chair2009 Primary School March Confirmed Staffing EntitlementsI would firstly like to apologise for any misunderstanding that has arisen from the information I provided in an earlier letter that was enclosed in your April resourcing entitlement pack.I am taking this opportunity to provide a more detailed explanation in order to clear up any confusion around the process of confirming primary school staffing entitlements.  I would also like to assure you that schools are receiving their correct roll and formula based resourcing entitlements and that operational funding entitlements have not been affected.In recent years the Ministry has, in some cases, applied a new entrant roll adjustment to primary schools’ March actual rolls for the purposes of confirming annual staffing entitlements.  This is not consistent with existing staffing policy and is therefore not able to be continued in 2009.When provisional staffing entitlements were established and advised to schools in September last year, a new entrant roll adjustment was applied.  This is standard practice in order to make provision for the number of new entrants likely to arrive during the year.  The staffing generated by the provisional resourcing roll is an assured minimum level of entitlement staffing that will be provided for all of 2009.Operational funding has not been affected in any way and a new entrant adjustment is still being applied.  Primary schools annual operational funding entitlements are recalculated following the July roll collection exercise and changes are reflected in the October instalment notice.In those exceptional cases where you can clearly demonstrate that your school has been negatively impacted by the non-application of a new entrant roll adjustment to your confirmed staffing roll because of an unusual increase in students beyond the total that you are already being staffed for, you are invited to write to resourcing@minedu.govt.nz.  Please outline the reasons why you believe your school has been disadvantaged, the commitments you may have made, and provide estimated new entrant numbers expected to arrive by 10 October.  Each case will be individually assessed based on the information provided and we will look at the staffing implications for the whole year.  The assessments will be completed quickly.  If considered justified, I will approve an adjustment to the staffing roll that may result in an increase to the confirmed staffing entitlement.  In those cases where an increased confirmed staffing entitlement has been approved, rolls will be monitored from time to time to ensure that the school is on-track.In all other cases, schools experiencing roll growth are still able to apply for staffing roll increases through the normal process if the roll that they are currently being staffed on is exceeded because of an unusual increase in students.  To assist schools in managing roll increases the length of time that an increase has to be maintained has been reduced from 20 school days to 10 schools days.I hope that the information I have provided is useful and clarifies the situation.Yours sincerelyJohn ClarkGroup Manager Resourcing

And if the Roll Review does not meet the staffing needs then as soon as you receive your 1 March confirmation Notice in 2012 . . .

In those exceptional cases where you can clearly demonstrate that your school has been negatively impacted by the non-application of a new entrant roll adjustment to your confirmed staffing roll because of an unusual increase in students beyond the total that you are already being staffed for, you are invited to write to resourcing@minedu.govt.nz.  Please outline the reasons why you believe your school has been disadvantaged, the commitments you may have made, and provide estimated new entrant numbers expected to arrive by 10 October.  Each case will be individually assessed based on the information provided and we will look at the staffing implications for the whole year.  The assessments will be completed quickly.  If considered justified, I will approve an adjustment to the staffing roll that may result in an increase to the confirmed staffing entitlement.  In those cases where an increased confirmed staffing entitlement has been approved, rolls will be monitored from time to time to ensure that the school is on-track.

March Funding Recalculation is based on actual roll at 1 March plus 11/12ths of actual Year One number. (Which is why the total recalculation roll does not match your confirmed staffing notice ! ) Suggestion: When you receive your provisional staffing/funding in Sept, do a 1 March roll prediction, add 11/12th to the Yr 1 prediction and adjust your initial Sept funding to reflect the likely March recalculation to arrive at a prudent budget figure for next year.

http://www.fundingcalc.minedu.govt.nz/Staffing/

How to get 0.6 extra staffing with 1 extra child!

Of interest if your roll is less than 176

Put these numbers in the funding calc, note the Curriculum Staffing Entitlement, then edit the calculator by entering another year 7 pupil. You will see about 0.6 more staffing appear with 51 pupils!Y1 Y1 Adj Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y77 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 (50 pupils)7 7 7 7 7 7 7 2 (51 pupils

Staffing Roll Change

When your actual roll exceeds your staffing roll by 3 pupils (some staffing officers suggest 2 pupils if they are both at Year one) , complete a Staffing Roll Change application (just google “Staffing Roll Change” to find it quickly) using MOE year levels, not your inhouse year levels.See next slide for a walk thru of your SMS to obtain the right Summary table . . . (Suggestion – attach the table to your application)

How do you know what your “staffing roll” is ?

The greater of or

March Confirmation Notice

SMS Status by MOE Year Level for Staffing Roll Change Application – USE THIS TABLE, not your inhouse levels

MUSAC

• Printing

• Tables

• Status by Year Level

• MOE Year levels

E TAP

• Admin Tools

• Summary Reports

• MOE Year Level by Room

SCHOOOL MASTER

•Student Records

•Reports

•Summary Lists

•Room list SummaryMinistry Yr Level 0 to 10(L)

Please email gavin.price@xtra.co.nz with any other SMS processes for getting an MOE table by year levels eg Assembly? – thank you!