10.12.2012 susanna porkka, mikko wahlroos. regional potential and forecast for wind power ipcc...

Wind power in global energy scenarios

10.12.2012 Susanna Porkka, Mikko Wahlroos

Regional potential and forecast for wind power

IPCC scenario analysis

The Energy [R]evolution scenario

Content

Wind power is crucial part for countries to fulfill their commitments in Kyoto Protocol

Political decisions and subsidies have been playing a big part on how interesting wind power has been to investors.

Wind energy provides 2.5 % of worlds electricity need.

It is possible for wind energy to generate 8 - 12 % of electricity by year 2020

China, USA, Germany, Spain and Italy have a 74 % share of all wind energy capacity.

Wind speed worldwide

http://www.ceoe.udel.edu

Much unused potential in northern and southern Africa as well as in southern Latin America and Australia◦ As well in many other parts of the world

Research done by University of Delaware and Stanford University says that in theory maximal wind power in onshore and coastal ocean areas is over 80 TW◦ Far over global energy need◦ Climate is not affected by any foreseeable wind

power in practical scale, for example 7.5 TW

Global wind energy council

Europes biggest markets have stabilized, but especially eastern Europe countries have much unused potential

Chinese wind power markets have stabilized and Chinese manufacturers are aiming abroad

Indian need for electricity is growing and it needs ways to provide more energy, wind power markets are expected to rise

In USA short-term and unstable policy is wind energys biggest problem.

Latin America◦ Economical and political differences in areas.◦ Brazil has really promising markets, good potential and

much hydropower that wind energy works well with

Africa has much potential in coasts and highlands. ◦ There is other problems more crucial to governments

at the moment to concentrate on that potential. ◦ First large scale energy using is going to be propably

water, as in Egypt, or coal based. After that wind power is seen to start playing its part as

well. ◦ Egypt has some plans on growing wind energy part to

12 % by year 2020 (political conditions have been obstacle on reaching that goal)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) in 2012, in which they had a global energy scenario analysis

Analysis includes 164 medium- to long-term scenarios from 16 different global energy-economic and integrated assessment models

All the scenarios have been published during or after 2006 Scenarios are divided in different categories according to CO2

concentrations◦ Scenarios range from 350 ppm to 1050 ppm of atmospheric CO2 concentration in

2100 Analysis highlights following facts:

◦ Importance of interactions and competition with other mitigation technologies◦ Evolution of energy demand more generally◦ RE deployment levels as whole and on individual basis◦ Factors that might influence the ability to meet the deployment levels◦ Cost analysis

Analysis also includes a more detailed review using 4 of the 164 scenarios as illustrative examples

IPCC scenario analysis

CO2 concentration in scenarios

Source: Renewable Energy Sources and ClimateChange Mitigation, Special Report of the IPCC, 2012http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_Full_Report.pdf

RE compared to annual CO2 emission in scenarios


Share of wind energy in scenarios


Four more aggregated data level and different illustrative energy and emission pathways

The scenarios differ in assumptions, mitigation goals and in the types of underlying models used◦ CO2 Concentration◦ RE cost and performance assumptions◦ Energy efficiency and demand◦ Overall GDP growth

IEA-WEO2009-Baseline◦ Typical baseline scenario, no substantial change in government policy, minimal to moderate

fossil fuel cost increase, no specific GHG emissions constraints ReMIND-RECIPE

◦ Emission reductions under full ”where, when and what-flexibility”, perfect foresight: future changes in prices and technology developments known

MiniCAM-EMF22◦ Availability of a wide range of energy supply options, including major RE options, nuclear power

and both fossil energy and bioenergy equipped with CCS technology, possible negative emissions

ER-2010◦ Increase in fossil fuel costs and a price for carbon from 2010 onwards, fully exploit the large

potential for energy efficiency, characterized by a very detailed technology breakdown for each sector

Four in-depth scenarios

Four in-depth scenarios


Market development


Wind power in four in-depth scenarios

Conflicts with manufacturing capacity and RE deployment growth◦ The IEA-WEO2009-Baseline scenario, for

example, expects lower global deployment of wind power in 2020 than currently available manufacturing capacity,5 which could lead to overcapacity and lower market prices for wind turbines. Lower prices for wind would lead to greater deployment

◦ High scenario for wind in ReMIND-RECIPE requires an annual production capacity of 175 GW by 2020, which would represent a four-fold increase in production capacity at a global level, Both the ER-2010 and MiniCAM-EMF22 scenarios require this production capacity about a decade later

◦ This shows once more the problem of dealing with a very dynamic (and in this case policy-driven) sector using scenario analysis.

The highest global wind share occurs in the ReMIND-RECIPE scenario, with a 24% portion by 2030, a share that is reached in the ER-2010 scenario only by 2050

In all three mitigation scenarios wind is expected to overtake hydropower in terms of global electricity supply by 2030


Supply Curves of Renewable electricity Potential - OECD Europe 2030 and 2050


Global decadal investments


The Energy [R]evolution scenario is published by Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC)

First ER published 2007, latest updated version of ER published in 2012◦ First ER in 2007 assumed installed wind capacity to be 156 GW in the end of 2010, while the

actual realized capacity in the end of 2010 was 197 GW

Few main concepts in the Energy [R]evolution:◦ Implement clean, renewable solutions◦ Decentralise energy, 70 % of all generation is distributed and located close to load centres◦ Decouple growth from fossil fuel use and phase out nuclear power◦ Implementing smart and super grids◦ Less need for baseload plants◦ By 2050 the average per capita emission 0.5 and 1tonne of CO2

ER12 suggests that renewable energy would pass 30% of the global energy supply just after 2020.

IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 current policies scenario used as reference scenario

The Energy [R]evolution 2012

Assumed average growth rates and annual market volumes by RE techologies

Source: energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, Greenpeace international & EREC & GWEC, 2012, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution%202012/ER2012.pdf

Wind power and RE cost assumptions


Short term prognosis vs real market development


Long term market projects


Employment in energy sector


Are the most ambitious global energy scenarios possible?


Thank you for your attention!Questions?

10.12.2012 susanna porkka, mikko wahlroos. regional potential and forecast for wind power ipcc...

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