1 what if… the washington region grew differently? results to date of the tpb regional mobility...

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What If…What If… The Washington Region The Washington Region

Grew Differently?Grew Differently?

Results to Date ofResults to Date ofThe TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility StudyThe TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study

February 8, 2006February 8, 2006

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A policy framework guiding the region’s transportation investments in the 21st century.

Goals include: • Promoting activity centers• Increasing transit use• Reducing driving

The TPB Vision Approved in 1998

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Intended to be focal points for jobs and housing, and nodes for transportation linkages.

Regional Activity Centers

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In 2000, the TPB recognized that in many respects, the region’s long-range transportation plan was falling short of the Vision...

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Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance

Little money is available for new transportation projects

23%

77%

New Roads and Transit*

Operations & Preservation*

* Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

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Forecast Trends 2000 - 2030

37%

16%

Daily VehicleMiles Traveled

Freeway andArterial Lane

Miles

The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace with Growth

2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million

2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

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Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030

2 0 3 02 0 3 0Based on the 2003 CLRPBased on the 2003 CLRP

Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph)

Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph)

2000 2030

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Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be Packed

Morning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030

2000 2030

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How can we move closer to the Vision?

In 2000, the TPB initiated a study to investigate scenarios that might better meet the objectives of the Vision: Promoting activity centers Increasing transit use Reducing driving

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Study of “What If” Scenarios

What if job and housing growth were

shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?

How would 2030 travel conditions

change?

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Study of “What If” Scenarios

Scenario development did not address

“how to” questions Cost of transportation improvements

Necessary changes to land use policies

Market forces

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Who developed the scenarios?

TPB – Policy direction

“Joint Technical Working Group” – Detailed specification and review TPB Technical Committee members –

transportation improvements

Planning Directors – land use changes

Citizens, including members of the TPB Citizens Advisory Committee

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Developing the Scenarios:

What are key issues related to land use and

transportation?

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Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania

Forecast Job

GrowthForecast

Household Growth

Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs

Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands)

Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

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“More Households” Scenario

Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth

Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters”

Regional Activity Cluster

Increase household growth by 200,000VA

WV

Balt.

What if more people who worked here lived here?

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Additional Transit for the “More Households” Scenario

30 miles of new Metrorail

30 miles of new commuter rail

218 miles of new light rail and bus rapid transit

I-270 Transitway

MD 97 Transitway

MD 1 Transitway

MD 193 Transitway

Bi-County Light Rail

US 50 Transitway

DC Light Rail

MD 4 Transitway

Metrorail Extension

to Centerville

VRE Extension to Haymarket

VRE Extension to Fauquier

Co.

VA 1 Transitway

MD 210 Transitw

ay

MD 5/301 Light Rail

Columbia Pike

Transitway

Metrorail: Branch Ave

to Eisenhower

Ave

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Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs

Inner jurisdictions – most job growth

Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth

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What if people lived closer to their jobs?


Shift 84,000 households

“Households In” Scenario

Shift household growth within the region from outer to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs)

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Additional Transit for the “Households In” Scenario



MD 1 Transitway


DC Light Rail

Metrorail Extension

to Centerville

Columbia Pike

Transitway


to Eisenhower

Ave

VA 1 Transitway

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What if jobs were located closer to where people live?


Shift 82,000 jobs

“Jobs Out” Scenario

Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing)

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Additional Transit for the “Jobs Out” Scenario


30 miles of new commuter rail


I-270 Transitway


Metrorail Extension

to Centerville



Co.

VA 1 Transitway

MD 5/301 Light Rail

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20%

1%

West East

Issue #3: East-West Divide

Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000

A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western

parts of the region

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Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour

Average Commute Time

Morning Rush Hour

Up to 30 minutes

Up to 40 minutes

Over 40 minutes

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Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs

“Region Undivided”

Scenario

Shift job and household growth from West to East

Areas Receiving Job Growth

What if there were more development on the

eastern side of the region?

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Additional Transit for the “Region Undivided” Scenario



MD 1 Transitway

MD 193 Transitway


(Ext. to Branch Ave.)

DC Light Rail

VA 1 Transitway

MD 210 Transitw

ay

MD 5/301 Light Rail

Columbia Pike

Transitway


to Eisenhower

Ave

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Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas

HouseholdGrowth2010 to2030

EmploymentGrowth2010 to2030

30%

70%

20%

80%

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What if people lived and worked closer to transit?

“Transit Oriented Development”

Scenario Locate job and

household growth around transit

Same transit network as “More Households” scenario

Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

I-270 Transitway

MD 97 Transitway

MD 1 Transitway

MD 193 Transitway


US 50 Transitway

DC Light Rail

MD 4 Transitway

Metrorail Extension

to Centerville



Co.

VA 1 Transitway

MD 210 Transitw

ay

MD 5/301 Light Rail

Columbia Pike

Transitway


to Eisenhower

Ave

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Evaluating the Scenarios:

How would future travel conditions change?

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Some Caveats:Scenarios shift a relatively small percent of the total jobs and households anticipated for 2030

Households in 2000

Growth

by 2010

Growth

by 2030

Affected by scenarios

2030 Households

72%

13%

15%

Underway or in the pipeline

Already in place

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Some Caveats:Some scenarios make more dramatic land use changes than others

Number of Jobs and Households Shifted

0

50

100

150

200

250

MoreHouseholds

Households In Jobs Out RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

Development

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Households Jobs

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Some Caveats:Baseline for comparison:

Round 6.4 population and employment forecasts for 2030

Long-range transportation plan as adopted in 2003

The study includes many “measures of effectiveness” This presentation highlights just a few of the

major ones

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Driving would decrease Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030

Vehicle Miles Traveled

-0.9%

-1.3%

-0.1%

-0.8%

-1.0%

MoreHouseholds Households In Jobs Out

RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

Development

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Under the “More Households” scenario, the average person would

drive 2 miles less per day . . .

Daily vehicle miles traveled per person

Baseline: 24

“More Households”: 22

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Congestion would decrease Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030

Lane Miles of Severe AM Peak Period Congestion

-4.9%

-6.4%

-1.4%

-2.7%

-4.6%


RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

Development

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Transit use would increase* Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030

Transit Trips

7.9%8.8%

-2.4%

15.9%

6.5%


RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

Development

*Under the “Jobs Out” scenario, transit trips would increase in outer suburban activity clusters

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Under the “Region Undivided” scenario:

Transit commute trips to the Largo area would more than double, increasing the transit commute mode share from 9% to 15%.

Local impacts would be even bigger, in many places

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Walk and bike commuting would increase*

Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030

Walk and Bike Commute Trips

6.4%

3.5%

-1.3%

17.8%

6.5%


RegionUndivided

TransitOriented

Development

*Under the “Jobs Out” scenario, walk & bike commuting would increase in outer suburban activity clusters

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Key Findings: What do the scenarios tell us?

Increasing household growth and concentrating that growth in regional activity centers would

increase transit use, walking and biking

decrease driving and congestion

Encouraging more development on the eastern side of the region would improve regional travel conditions

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How has the study been used so far?

Development of COG’s Round 7.0 cooperative forecasts for population and employment growth

Includes 2/3 of new households assumed under the “More Households” scenario

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What public outreach has been conducted?

Forums hosted by the TPB’s Citizen Advisory Committee

Oxon Hill Forum, September 2005

Dulles TOD Forum, September 2005

Takoma Park Forum, November 2005

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Next Steps:

Conduct more public outreach forums in different parts of the region

Develop additional scenarios as needed

Current scenarios have looked at land use changes and transit improvements, but not highway improvements

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Next Steps:

What if the region built a

network of variably priced

lanes?

Results expected by June 30, 2006

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What if multiple scenarios were combined?For example . . .

Next Steps:

Results expected early 2007

Variably Priced Lanes

++More Households Region Undivided

VA

WV

Balt.

New Transit++++

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How to apply lessons from the scenarios in a real-world environment?

Scenarios were intended to “push the envelope” of what’s possible, but what’s realistic?

What changes could be made To the CLRP? To local land use plans?

What changes would have the highest pay-offs?

Next Steps:

1 what if… the washington region grew differently? results to date of the tpb regional mobility...

Documents

new transportation projects23w

tpb vision

transportation linkages

transportation dollars

new roads

additional transit

housing growth

regional activity centersin